Draft Design Report February 21, 2015

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

We are the Global Urban Development Program: Stockton team, an

international partnership of undergraduate and graduate students of

different academic and geographic backgrounds. Our goal is to

develop thoughtful and strategic solutions to revitalize South

Stockton in partnership with the City of Stockton Planning

Commission, Councilmember Michael Tubbs, and the Reinvent South

Stockton Coalition (RSSC).

Our Project is structured into four phases: two phases of Research

and two of Design. Our first two phases developed a comprehensive

understanding of South Stockton‟s current conditions, identifying

areas of strength, opportunities for development, weaknesses, and

threats to progress, and established target goals to quantifiably

measure the success of our design proposals.

The second two phases focus on carving out said design proposals.

This deliverable, Draft Design, provides an understanding of

Stockton‟s site conditions, our approach to designing for said

conditions, and the proposals we have selected which we believe

contribute to accomplishing our established goals.

RESEARCH PROCESS

We started our research phase with Deliverable 1, Draft Research, in

which we tried to identify key conditions and systemic challenges in

Stockton. The work was distributed among team members, which

were divided into 5 research groups, each covering one of the main

topics in the city: Economic, Political/Legal, Cultural/Social,

Environmental and Urban. Conclusions based on the aforementioned

analysis were gathered in a SWOT Analysis (strengths, weaknesses,

opportunities, threats). In Deliverable 2, Final Research, we refined

our research to identify the most important target goals using SWOT

and PESTEL Analysis. We focused more specifically on the current

work of the RSSC and tried to come up with quantifiable goals in

several Quality-of-Life indicators of the city: Place, Movement,

Environment, Health & Safety, Community, Housing and Economic

Development. Target goals were given feasible timescales

(immediate, short-term, long-term) and were used as a basis for

selecting design projects in the next phase.

Table 1. Portfolio of Target Goals from Final Research.

(Table continued on next page)

DESIGN PROCESS

For the design phase of the project, we split up into four different

teams in order to better address specific issues: Industry

Revitalization, Environmental Resiliency, Airport Way, and CSU

Stockton. The two “macro” level teams focused on industry

revitalization and environmental infrastructure/energy efficiency on

a larger scale encompassing South Stockton, while the “micro” level

teams worked towards designing specific uses for empty lots on

Airport Way and planning for a potential CSU in South Stockton.

Team members split up based on interest, with 3-6 people in each.

Rather than working specifically within our disciplines, we used

systems thinking, human centered design, and holistic problem

solving to better understand and attempt to tackle deeply rooted

problems. By doing so, we heard from community members whose

voices may have been unheard through a traditional approach, and

tackled problems from a variety of angles, from zoning to an

outreach plan. As team members were spread across Stanford,

Stockton, and Ljubljana, meetings were held online and utilized

collaborative tools like Google Drive and Bluejeans Conferencing.

KEY STAKEHOLDERS

The GUDP Stockton project would not be possible without assistance

from a wide variety of organizers, mentors, and contacts in Stockton.

Organizers:

The GUDP organizers function as the main contacts between the

design team and the City of Stockton and helped create the original

structure of deliverable materials and communication between

Slovenian and Stanford students.

● Derek Ouyang (Stanford)

● Sinan Mihelcic (Ljubljana)

● Klemen Kusar (Ljubljana)

Faculty Advisors from Stanford And University of Ljubljana:

● Glenn Katz (Stanford)

● Andreja Cirman (Ljubljana)

Mentors:

● Mikko Tuovinen (Finland)

● Rob Best (Stanford)

● Ethan Heil (Stanford)

● Dimitris Farmakis (Greece)

● Naseem Alizadeh (UK)

City Partners:

Additionally, mentors from the City as well as other contacts in the

City have helped give context and feedback throughout the project

and helped organize the Community Engagement Session for this

phase of the project.

● Fred Sheil (STAND)

● Lange Luntao (RSSC)

● Michael Tubbs

● Forest Ebbs

City Contacts:

Teams have also reached out to specific contacts throughout the city

for assistance with more specific questions including:

● Melanie Vieux and Doug Davis with WMB Architects

● Brenna Hull with KABOOM!

● PG&E Energy Training Center

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

Coming up with solutions for Stockton required that each team do

extensive research, but at the same time, we knew that in order to

understand the whole picture, we needed to ask the opinion of the

people who actually lived in Stockton. Our community engagement

activity was coordinated with the RSSC and was held on February 7,

2015. We wanted it to be a session in which the citizens could offer

their ideas and solutions for the problems we were researching and

act as a sounding board for any ideas we might have. One concern

was to make sure that the activity did not just end up with us

lecturing about problems the city faces, but to encourage an open

dialogue with the residents. The first half of the activity was a

general discussion, in which three teams (Airport Way, Energy

Efficiency, and CSU Stockton) each presented their topic and asked a

question that everyone answered on sticky notes and discussed for a

few minutes. After all the topics were introduced, all the

participants introduced themselves. Then, the large group broke into

smaller groups, and the participants were told to join the topic they

were most passionate about. For the next 45 minutes, participants

talked about the specific topic they joined, and were also free to

move around to other topics. All the participants stuck with their

topics the whole time, and each of the teams got valuable ideas and

feedback from the citizens. Factoring in the perspective of the

citizens is important in making sure that our solutions meet

community needs and are not just purely utilitarian solutions. Their

input is taken into account in our proposals for each of the topics.

INDUSTRY REVITALIZATION

The main goal of the Industry Revitalization team is to identify 5

industries to which Stockton has the most to offer and which could

be positioned in the South Stockton area. The industries are

strategically selected with regard to the resources, natural and

otherwise, locally available. After the selection of industries, a

detailed analysis was conducted into the internal incentives and

external factors said industries find conducive. This entails an

overview of the current, potential, and required incentives and

accounts for the external factors within the framework of PESTEL

analysis. Urban and architectural plans and models will be

constructed in order to best cater to the needs of the industries; this

point is crucial for the success of the project, as by far the greatest

asset of the City is the land which it can provide to potential

investors in a fiscally attractive environment. The aforementioned

findings will be compiled and presented in a SWOT analysis format,

from which specific goals will be extrapolated and a strategy outline

will be constructed to facilitate the achievement of said goals.

Using the PESTEL framework an analysis was conducted of the

macroeconomic factors affecting Stockton. This was then applied to

the selection process for compatible industries in which industries

were assessed. The industries were evaluated based on their fit in

the South Stockton area. A matrix presenting mutually beneficial

externalities was compiled to showcase the synergistic influences of

the industries and the City with an emphasis on South Stockton.

ENVIRONMENTAL RESILIENCY

The Environmental Resiliency team works at the macro level,

focusing on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and flooding and

storm water resiliency. The goals of the team are twofold: to

evaluate environmental infrastructure with respect to flood risk and

mitigation and inform implementation of the Climate Action Plan by

proposing an energy efficiency and rooftop solar program that will

meet the needs of South Stockton residents.

In response to Stockton‟s flood risk, the team is using Autodesk

Infraworks to model flooding and potential mitigation approaches.

The team is creating a model of the city which will help represent

potential hazards and find appropriate solutions. Key strategies

considered include use of permeable pavement and green

infrastructure to reduce runoff. These mitigation efforts will be

tested against various design storms, especially the 200-year storm,

as areas not protected by storms of that severity are required to

purchase flooding insurance.

The energy efficiency component encompasses a broader scale - in

addition to modeling a “typical” home meeting the minimum

requirements for Title 24, the team will develop an implementation

plan for an energy efficiency program. During the community

engagement, the team recognized deeply rooted problems such as

unhealthy landlord/renter relationships, old housing stock, and

budget constraints. As a result, working to improve home energy use

in a way that benefits traditionally underserved communities

requires rigorous and comprehensive problem solving. Key points

discussed include lack of awareness of available resources, distrust,

and the need for better-designed incentives. The implementation

plan will include a discussion of who the stakeholders are and what

role they might play, outreach strategy, incentive programs, and

funding in order to tackle some of the main concerns and challenges

voiced at the community engagement.

A IRPORT WAY

The Airport Way team is focusing on the vacant lots along South

Stockton‟s Airport Way, which many community members have

described as a potential neighborhood center which is currently

severely underdeveloped. The goals of the team are to reduce the

number of vacant lots over the course of the next twenty years, to

make the street safer for pedestrians and bicyclists, to increase the

use of bikes and public transportation, to find options for financing

the development, and to bring jobs to the area.

Some potential programs the team has considered thus far are

recreation areas for sports and afterschool activities, a public garden

with adjoining market and restaurant, a grocery store, an after

school activities center, a public park, a shared tool shed, and

overall street infrastructure redesign.

So far the team has gathered information needed to start designing

on each plot, made the program list, consulted with local firm WMB

Architects about zoning and building regulations, and participated in

the community engagement session.

CSU STOCKTON

The CSU Stockton team is examining the California Public State

University system as a whole, determining financial feasibility of a

CSU Stockton, and looking into the two most similar CSU‟s close to

Stockton which are CSU Sacramento and CSU Stanislaus. The team

has reached out to a number of public schools mainly situated near

South Stockton but have had unresponsive/incomplete

communication. The team is now working with RSSC to get

information about what high school students are doing after

graduation (i.e. working, traveling, going off to a junior or 4-year

college, what majors have they chosen, etc.). The team has also

chosen three potential sites that seem the most realistic for a

potential CSU institution, and has decided that CSU Stockton would

mostly likely be a smaller CSU more similar to CSU Stanislaus than

CSU Sac. The team is currently working on individual projects such as

engineering/design of CSU, financial feasibility and funding, and

potential programs/courses that would be most beneficial to this

specific location.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Our goal is to carefully examine reports on budget and see if there is

some room for optimization. Currently, we are analyzing a 418-page

report on the Adopted Budget and 188-page review on the Capital

Improvements Plan. The latter includes a number of projects which

do not have funding at this point but are key to improving energy

efficiency and therefore saving money in the future. We are also

looking at how efficiently money has been allocated to different

programs, like the Peacekeeper Program. Data also suggests that

there are some improvements on the revenue side of the budget due

to the increase in sales tax. Given enough data, future projections of

the trend will be also conducted. After recognizing the City‟s

strategic needs and current situation, we will also look for good

examples of balanced city budgets elsewhere and make a comparison.

Only then can recommendations be given to the City. Breakthrough

ideas are not expected, as the city is already struggling to allocate

every dollar within their constraints.

5 INDUSTRY STRATEGY INTRODUCTION

The main goal of the Industry Revitalization team is to identify 5 industries to which Stockton has the most to offer and which could be positioned in the South Stockton area. The industries are strategically selected with regard to the resources, natural and otherwise, locally available. After the selection of industries, a detailed analysis was conducted into the internal incentives and external factors said industries find conducive. This entails an overview of the current, potential, and required incentives and accounts for the external factors within the framework of PESTEL analysis. Urban and architectural plans and models will be constructed in order to best cater to the needs of the industries; this point is crucial for the success of the project, as by far the greatest asset of the City is the land which it can provide to potential investors in a fiscally attractive environment. The aforementioned findings will be compiled and presented in a SWOT analysis format, from which specific goals will be extrapolated and a strategy outline will be constructed to facilitate the achievement of said goals.

Using the PESTEL framework an analysis was conducted of the macroeconomic factors affecting Stockton. This was then applied to the selection process for compatible industries in which industries were assessed. The industries were evaluated based on their fit in the South Stockton area. A matrix presenting mutually beneficial externalities was compiled to showcase the synergistic influences of the industries and the City with an emphasis on South Stockton.

PORTER FIVE FORCES MODEL

Porter five forces model (five forces analysis) is a framework to analyze the level of competition within an industry and business

strategy development. It draws upon industrial organization economics to derive five forces that determine the competitive intensity and therefore attractiveness of an Industry. Attractiveness in this context refers to the overall industry profitability. An "unattractive" industry is one in which the combination of these five forces acts to drive down overall profitability. A very unattractive industry would be one approaching perfect competition, in which available profits for all firms are driven to normal profit. Porter's five forces include - three forces from 'horizontal' competition: the threat of substitute products or services, the threat of established rivals, and the threat of new entrants; and two forces from 'vertical' competition: the bargaining power of suppliers and the bargaining power of customers.1

Graphical representation of Porter five forces model

MARKET SIZE

A market is one of the many varieties of systems, institutions, procedures, social relations and infrastructures whereby parties engage in exchange. It can be said that a market is the process by which the prices of goods and services are established. In mainstream economics, the concept of a market is any structure

1 source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porter_five_forces_analysis

that allows buyers and sellers to exchange any type of goods, services and information.

Market size is the total exchange of money in the market in one year. Market size in this context is often termed market value, but should not be confused with the market value of individual products.2

MARKET GROWTH

Market growth is an increase in the demand for a product or service that makes up said market. Increased demand stimulates an increase in the production of the product or service to satisfy the demand. In the period between demand and supply coordination, when demand outpaces supply, allocation of the product or good is achieved with pricing changes. Thus only the consumers who are willing to pay a higher than previous price, will be able to obtain the product or service.

TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS

In the production, companies use labor and capital to create added value. In this section the main focus will be spent on capital, which is in great connection with technology requirements. In all industries, a financial commitment is required just to get the first unit of good or service produced. Once the upfront investments are made, there may be economies of scale with regards to ongoing expenses and sales growth. But the initial hurdle to get into the business tends to keep the list of competitors small, creating high barriers to entry.

Companies in capital-intensive industries are thus often marked by high levels of depreciation and fixed assets on the balance sheet.

2 Adapted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_(economics)#Size_parameters

JOB GENERATION

Companies use capital and labor in order to produce and sell on the market. The amount of labor used to produce a given amount depends on the labor intensiveness of an industry. This determines the number of jobs a business generates at a given production amount. Job requirements vary widely and the skills and qualifications of a labor force are an important factor when companies decide to relocate or expand their business. Job generation is also very important to the surrounding environment as employment is one of the pillars of a successful community and provides economic security and social stability.

LEGAL LIMITATION

Governments regulate business activities for various reasons, from health and safety concerns, environmental protection, to moral and ethical issues. These limitations can range in severity from licensing requirements and other special conditions to outright bans and can be explicitly stated or implicit, for example through complicated bureaucratic procedures. Legal factors are an important consideration for businesses as the costs of complying can range from minimal to prohibitive. Regulations can vary between countries but also between smaller subdivisions such as states or counties.

FOOD PROCESSING

ALMONDS

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

High - concentrated market - suppliers strongly organized; they are working together on many issues, including negotiations with the authorities for setting prices and arranging conditions for growers

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Relatively low for buyers, as individual buyers are small. Not too many big buyers (export is an exception)

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

Low – new entries are not very frequent, as the operations require not only physical investments but access to the crops as well (in arranging and processing bigger amounts of almonds, the access and availability of the inputs can be a problem)

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

Moderate – other nuts usage is in rise, but almonds already have their position relatively secured in nutrition of consumers, and there are new applications of almonds related to food (almond milk)

COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

Relatively high - there are dominant companies in the industry; in many cases, they are owned by handlers of almonds and in some cases also their growers; not many companies present in the market.

INDUSTRY

Industry contributes about $11 billion a year to the state‟s gross domestic product. The figure includes production of the crop itself and the processing and marketing of the nuts. The study, by the Agricultural Issues Center at UC Davis, says almond-related activities generate 104,000 jobs statewide.

MARKET

California is the only state in the US that is producing almonds commercially; to be more precise, California produces over 99% of all almonds available domestically. Furthermore, 80% of world‟s almonds are produced in California. All these facts clearly show that California has a dominant place in the world‟s almonds industry. California almond industry‟s revenues have surged to $3.9 billion in 2011/12 from $740 million 10 years ago. In general, around 70% of the state's almond crop is destined for export,

while the domestic demand accounts for 30% of the state's almond crop. (AGMRC, 2013.)

In an effort to control over-supply and stabilize prices in a saturated market, the almond marketing order established the almond reserve. In years where large almond crops are expected to significantly depress prices, the almond reserve can require a percentage of almonds be withheld from handling and diverted to low-paying secondary outlets. The Almond Board of California makes yearly recommendations to the Secretary of the USDA on the percentage of saleable almonds, if any, to be removed from the market and placed into reserve. Growers can eliminate the order or amend the provisions by a two-thirds vote. (AGMRC, 2013.)

GLOBAL CONSUMPTION

US is a dominant supplier - In 2012, the country exported about 692,270 metric tons (MT) of the nuts, a 9 percent increase from the previous year, which were valued at $3.4 billion, a 20 percent rise from 2011. About 70 percent of U.S. almonds are exported as shelled almonds, with the remainder being either unshelled or manufactured (FAS).

The Hong Kong/China market, which purchased U.S. almonds valued at $648.9 million in 2012, has become the top destination for U.S. almonds, surpassing the Western European market, previously the leading market (FAS).

The largest export market for unshelled almonds remained India. India was also the second largest overall market in 2012, buying U.S. almonds valued at $314.1 million (FAS).

Sales of shelled almonds to Spain and Germany, the two largest export markets for shelled almonds, continued to be strong, due to their use of almonds in the confection industry. Spain purchased U.S. almonds valued at $310.4 million in 2012 and Germany purchased U.S. almonds valued at $262.8 million (FAS).

The industry is expected to experience even higher demand, as new use of almonds and their applications are developing. With respect to that, the total world consumption is projected to increase to about 3.4 billion pounds in 2020, only a shade below the projected world supply of 3.75 billion pounds and leaving stocks of 350 million pounds. (Western Farm Press, 2013.)

DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION

Consumption of almonds experiences increasing trend, both in relative and absolute terms.

PRODUCTION

Growing almonds requires low amounts of water (especially in comparison to other nuts); Increasing number of almonds growing acres due to drought; growing almonds requires less water - 44 percent more land in California is being used to farm almonds than was 10 years ago. Still, the current situation that California is facing (and it is characterized with drought and low amounts of water available) puts pressure on the almond industry. Being one of the most lucrative in the state, almond industry is very exploited. Some of the information available state that around 10% of the California‟s agriculture water supply is being used in this industry.

Honeybees are needed (mostly brought from other states) to pollinate almond trees.

The almond tree has an average life span of 20 to 25 years and does not bear fruit during the first 3 to 4 years after planting. Additionally, almond trees are alternate bearing so that a large crop one year is often followed by a lighter crop the following year.

COMPETITION

Blue Diamond Growers is far and away the largest player in this market. It is owned by over two-thirds of California growers and markets one-third of California‟s crop Sacramento Bee estimated that Blue Diamond had $3.3 billion in sales over the last five years, $709 million last year alone.

Founded in 1910, this cooperative is owned by half of the state's almond growers who produce over 80 percent of the world almond supply.

Some of the companies reported to have achieved an astonishing 30 percent return on partnership investments in the San Joaquin Valley almond industry. Acquisitions span 7,500 acres of arable almond farmland including previously distressed regions. The almond industry investment consulting firm has generated net cash profits of up to $6.6 billion for its 640 acre Almond Development program. However, identifying deals as profitable as this one takes decades of proven industry experience in delivering highest possible returns on the perceivably limited cultivable space (Elance, 2014).

Expected yield range: 1,400 – 2,600 lbs. per acre

Expected price range: $0.90 - $2.10 per pound

Total costs of production are estimated at the value 3897 dollars per acre (per harvest), consisting of the following categories of costs:

Cultural costs (labor, custom and materials) are 1752 dollars per acre, distributed as shown in the pie chart.

Almond Board of California

Once potential of growing almonds was realized (already in 50‟s), the Almond board of California (ABC) was established. The Board‟s mission is to create a rewarding environment for the production, processing and marketing of California almonds. The Federal Marketing Order for California almonds is used to support research, promotion and technical services and to increase the consumption of California almonds around the world.

There are approximately 6,000 almond growers and 100 almond handlers (processors) in California, producing almonds throughout the Central Valley. It is important to say that almonds do not benefit from federal price support programs; ABC is grower financed.

The industry works closely with USDA APHIS and FAS to address emerging Sanitary/Phytosanitary (SPS) issues, while USDA‟s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) support is needed to address apiary issues which could impact the industry‟s future viability and health. Almond industry representatives respond to other U.S. government requests for technical information and industry data in support of improved market access worldwide. Food Safety The industry is committed to offering the highest quality, safest and most nutritious crop possible to domestic and foreign buyers. (ABC, 2009)

Pros Cons

Know how Suppliers‟ power

Proximity of inputs

Strong existing companies

Payable industry

WALNUTS

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

High - same for almonds and other nuts - strongly organized suppliers

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Individual buyers are small. Not too many big buyers

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

Low – relatively closed industry, new entries are not very frequent (similar to almond industry, entries are connected to higher yields and cooperation with/among growers and handlers)

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

Moderate – some of the consumers find it irreplaceable for certain uses, whereas significant price differences and changes influence relatively important number of buyers to switch to other similar products (other sorts of nuts in this case)

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Individual buyers are small. Not too many big buyers

COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

Moderate - less intense than in case of almonds (as the industry is not that there are dominant companies in the industry; in many cases, they are owned by handlers of almonds and in some cases also their growers; not many companies present in the market.

TRENDS

Growing industry

The value of the walnut crop was $1.3 billion in 2011 in California

($659 million – walnuts export 2008-2010)

Demand for California walnuts in markets around the world has elevated walnuts to the fourth leading export from the state, valued at over $1 billion dollars.

Exports mainly to East - China, Japan, Korea

Crop in CA in 2013 lighter than usual - prices up to 2 dollars per pound

Global demand for California walnut has raised walnuts to the fourth leading export from the state, valued at approximately $820 million. The industry has experienced record growth in the last five years; the value of walnuts may top $1.5 billion in farm gate revenue. Export now account for 60 percent of shipments with strong demand from Asia, Europe and the Middle East. New emerging markets, such as India, will play a vital role in developing the industry‟s future consumers. (Shelling Machine, 2013.)

COMPETITION

Over 80 handlers in California; In Stockton: AVANTI NUT COMPANY, BEECHER LANE WALNUT, DIAMOND FOODS (culinary nuts), MORADA NUT COMPANY, O-G NUT COMPANY (sorting, packing, blending and distributing), STAR NUT CO.

Growers and handlers usually organized and cooperating; establishing companies together.

PRODUCTS

Sold and used in various form: In Shell, Vacuum packaging, shelled, organic, cello, walnuts oil (Omega 3 rich)

More and more use in further processed forms- for cereals, chocolates, healthy nutrition...

SUBSTITUTES

Other nuts – almonds, pistachios, pecans, macadamias, nuts, hazelnuts...

Nut consumption rose to 3.97 pounds per person in 2010. Americans ate more almonds, hazelnuts, macadamias and pistachios, but fewer pecans and walnuts. In general, the top three nuts eaten in the United States are almonds, pecans and walnuts.

INVESTMENT, JOB CREATION AND - SIMILAR TO ALMONDS

Growing walnuts more demanding than almonds (trees are more sensitive to weather changes, water shortage)

Pros Cons

Natural resources available

Strong competition with other nuts (even locally, and also for the size of the fields planted –almonds more payable)

Wide usage

DAIRY INDUSTRY

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

High - strongly organized suppliers, on some issues even protected by the institution and state

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Individual buyers are small. Not too many big buyers

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

Low – relatively closed industry, new entries are not very frequent (knowhow and many safety and regulation standards need to be fulfilled as the production is sensitive as well as the products)

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

Relatively low – new trends (plant based milk etc.), but market for dairy products is stable

COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

Intense - many companies operating in the market, producing relatively uniform products.

TRENDS IN THE DAIRY INDUSTRY IN US

Continued industry consolidation; Formation of more mega-farms with a shift to west coast regions; Increased consumption of dairy products; Use of more sustainable packaging materials

The overall consumption of dairy products has risen, while consumption of fluid milk per person in the United States (U.S.) has declined slowly since 2009 due to the significant rise in the

use of substitutes (rice, soy and almond milk), and widening of range of products in the category available.

INDUSTRY

The U.S. dairy industry is estimated at $140 billion in economic output, $29 billion in household earnings, and more than 900,000 jobs (direct and indirect effect of the US dairy industry).

Dairies create a ripple effect on the agricultural economy and the economic well-being of rural America. When a dairy farmer sells a dollar of milk, it generates economic activity of $3, and every $1 million of U.S. milk sales generates 17 jobs.

Top 5 dairy states in the US: California, Idaho, New York, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Increased automation and new technology have resulted in greater efficiencies and economies of scale at large dairy farms. These advances are making it harder for smaller, less technologically sophisticated farms to stay competitive. Since 1992, the number of U.S. licensed dairy farms has decreased 61%. (PMMI, 2013.)

Due to a focus on efficiency, the dairy industry has shown steady growth the past five years despite an economy that has slowly recovered from a hard-hit decline. During this period the global compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.1%

Global sales of dairy products are forecast to reach $494 billion in 2015 of which the U.S. will account for approximately 25%. In addition to being one of the largest single global dairy markets, the U.S. is also a major dairy exporter. In 2012, 16.7% of U.S. milk production was exported, up from just 10% in 2010. Two-thirds of milk produced in the U.S. is for domestic use as fluid milk or processed into other dairy products. (PMMI, 2013.)

Total world milk production is estimated to grow from 692 million tons in 2010 to 827 million tons in 2020, a 19% increase.

The European Union, EU28, India and the U.S. were the largest milk producers in 2010 and are expected to remain so in 2020.

Russia, China and Mexico main importers

PRODUCTION

U.S. dairy farms produce roughly 23 billion gallons of milk annually. A cow will produce an average of nearly 7 gallons of milk each day. That‟s more than 2,500 gallons each year.

More than 51,000 U.S. dairy farms provide milk, cheese, yogurt and other dairy products to the U.S. and other countries. About 97% of all U.S. dairy farms are family-owned and operated. The average herd size on a dairy farm is 115 mature cows, and the majority (74%) of U.S. dairy farms have less than 100 cows. Farms with more than 100 cows produce 85% of the milk. (Dairy farming today, 2011.)

Source: Statista, 2014.

SUBSTITUTES

Consumption of fluid milk has steadily declined in the U.S. due to a variety of factors, including concerns about its high fat and

lactose content and stiffer competition from other beverages such as protein and energy drinks (like Iced teas, Iced coffees, Fruit juices, Lemonades, Almond Milk, Rice and Soy Milk etc.)

TRENDS

The trend toward consumers leading healthier lifestyles is sparking a slew of innovative dairy products, protein drinks and extended shelf-life beverages. Nearly half (48%) of dairy processors are responding to consumer demand for healthier food choices with new products that are low fat/fat-free, contain reduced sodium and sugar, lactose-free, organic, and /or contain probiotic cultures, fortified with nutrients, calcium and protein.

COMPETITION

Farmers organization are the most dominant suppliers of dairy products in the market

California Dairies, Inc. produces 18 billion pounds of milk products annually for commercial and consumer use. As one of the nation's largest suppliers of butter, California Dairies, Inc. supplies all sectors of the butter market including consumer retail, food service, private label and food manufacturing.

California Dairies, Inc. also produces dry milk powders and other items including cheese, condensed products, fluid milk and specialty dairy products.

California Dairies, Inc. produces 43 percent of California‟s milk or 9 percent of the milk produced in the United States on 500 dairies. A manufacturer of quality fluid milk products, butter and milk powders, California Dairies, Inc. has sales of more than $3 billion across all 50 states and in more than 50 foreign countries.

As a member-owned milk marketing and processing cooperative, California Dairies, Inc. is co-owned by 430 California dairymen who ship 18 billion pounds (8.1 million metric tons) of milk annually. Member dairies are located from San Diego County in the south to Sacramento County in the north.

Pros Cons

Origin effect (positive connotation to the product due to the region it comes from that symbolizes expertise and quality)

Consolidation in the industry-place for less and less companies

Proximity of inputs Strong controls and restrictive requirements

FRUIT JUICES

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

Organized suppliers, but they are many – bargaining power of

suppliers moderate

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

INDIVIDUAL BUYERS ARE SMALL. NOT TOO MANY BIG BUYERS THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

Moderate – barriers to entry moderate (physical not large, but network externalities and brand are significant)

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

High – many similar or even same product on the market; hard to achieve inimitable competitive advantage for longer period of time

COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

High – dominant companies in the market; relative developed and important consumer loyalty

Source: Statista, 2013.

Domestic market huge (among seven top countries in per capita fruit juices consumption)

TRENDS

Concerns about the healthiness of juice are expected to reduce demand for juices over the forecast period. Off-trade value sales of juice are projected to decline by 5% over 2013-2018 to reach US$16.7 billion, while off-trade volume sales will decline by 7%, to reach 8.4 billion liters.

SUBSTITUTES

The low calorie alternatives, functional bottled water, liquid concentrates

COMPETITION

Source: Beverage industry, 2013.

The Coca-Cola Co is the leading juice manufacturer with an 18% off-trade value share in 2013, down slightly from 2012. Otherwise, the competition is strong, with well-established names dominating the trends and industry itself.

Source: Statista, 2014.

Profit margin – around 13% (SkyPeople Fruit juice producer)

Middle size factory employs 100-220 employees

Production process:

Source: GEA, 2013.

Pros Cons

Consumption level is high

Declining industry trends

Abundance of inputs present locally

Substitutes and trends inclining towards ‟healthier drinks‟

SOYBEAN PROCESSING

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

Since U.S. agricultural markets are extremely efficient and competitive. Since soybean is in most cases cultivated in rotation with corn, the firms from the so-called “Corn Belt” are dominating the market throughout the U.S. However the similarity of many competing seed traits allows producers to switch at relatively low costs, thus reducing the bargaining power of input suppliers. Smaller firms providing raw soybean like those in Stockton are more likely to face pressure from volatile trade market since they‟re less concentrated than the industry to which it sells.

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Grain merchants which are typically traditional farmer cooperatives, aggregate farm output into meaningful quantities that are delivered to end users and processors. These customers also have the key role of storing a crop that is harvested in few months and consumed over the course of a year. Therefore, customers likely will not exert significant influences on industry profitability in the future due to traditional concerns over concentration.

THREAT OF NEW ENTRY

There are few meaningful barriers to entry in production of soybean processing. While the capital investments usually aren‟t insignificant, the agricultural credit is widely available to creditworthy processors. The relative ease with which parties with access to capital can enter the business will limit upside profitability to current producers.

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTION

There are important substitution consideration for oilseed producers and processors. Movements away from or towards animal proteins in the diet can have significant impact on grain consumption. Soybean products also compete in a variety of industrial based markets, either for human consumption (soya products) or energy where they serve as a substitute for petroleum-based products. The large quantities of these available substitutes will limit producer profitability.

COMPETITIVE R IVALRY

As mentioned before, agricultural production and processing is characterized by a high degree of competitive rivalry. Efforts to develop branded or specialized products are quickly and effectively copied. As a result, rivalry has a very detrimental impact on individual profitability in the sector. However it also encourages firms to be extremely efficient and productive as cost competition is the most likely source of competitive advantage. Rivalry has also clearly manifested itself on the global stage as South American agricultural production has rapidly increased.

MARKET SIZE

Industry revenue - $33-38 billion USD (2013) Import valued at $242.6 million USD (from 38 countries - U.S. are world‟s top

producer) U.S. produces roughly 75 million metric tons of soybean Export valued at $7.1 billion USD worth of merchandise to 152 countries Total domestic demand - $26.2 billion USD Employment: 254,531

MARKET GROWTH

Annual growth 1.7% Estimated gross profit: 21.15 % Yield per bushel (ca. 35.2l): 48 pounds of meal, 11 pounds of oil To trade a soybean on CBOT (Designated Contract Market) requires a margin of

$4,725

JOB GENERATION

comparing to the similar sized companies around the U.S. the industry creates approx. 11 jobs per $1 million USD of initial investment

TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS

processing plant (majority of soybeans are processed using solvent extraction)

transportational system and logistics - connecting suppliers of raw soybean with

processing plant

LEGAL LIMITATIONS

U.S. GMOs (Genetically Modified Organism) regulation focusing on health, safety, environment and legislation governing conventional products

GMO products export restrictions admonition concerning food additives and ingredients

PRODUCTS

LOGISTICS

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

The bargaining power of suppliers is relatively low; a majority of the costs in the industry is associated with transportation (fuel and vehicles) and warehousing, both involve materials and products, for which there are many substitutes.

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

The buyer bargaining power is quite high as the competitors have relatively uniform products. There may be some switching costs associated with changing firms, depending on the buyer‟s specific requirements.

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

The threat of new entrants is relatively low, entry barriers are relatively high, as a significant investment is needed in order to set up a viable logistics network. However, new technological developments, such as vehicle automation and unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) may disrupt the industry in the future and make new entries into the market more viable.

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

Currently, there are no substitutes for logistics services.

COMPETITIVE RIVALRY

There is a high amount of competitive rivalry as there are many large players in the market. However, competitive rivalry may be lower, depending on the buyer‟s shipping requirements.

MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH

The U.S. logistics and transportation spending totaled $1.35 trillion in 2013, and represented 8.5 percent of annual gross domestic product (GDP). While many businesses perform this function in-house, others do not; instead, they outsource it to third-party logistics (3PL) businesses. This subsector represented 10.6 percent of the industry in 2013 and has been steadily growing in recent years; market size has increased from $127.3 billion in 2010 to $146.4 billion in 2013. Growth estimates are positive; the estimated compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the period 2014-2018 stands at 4.98 percent.3

SUITABILITY FOR STOCKTON

Location and costs

Choosing the right location is key when planning logistic centers. One factor is the proximity of large population centers, as it allows maintaining efficient delivery and transportation services and thus minimizing associated costs. Concentrating on areas with

3 Armstrong & Associates (2014). Global 3PL Market Size Estimates. http://www.3plogistics.com/3plmarketglobal.htm

good access to various modes of transport is also important, as well as on areas where transshipment occurs.

Stockton‟s location is ideally suited for logistics; it is close to fast-growing large population centers such as the Bay Area and Greater Sacramento, it has relatively inexpensive and adequate land, it has excellent access to highways and railways, with intermodal yards, a deep-water port and an airport. The county‟s suitability for logistics operations has not gone unnoticed; logistics jobs have been steadily shifting there from the Bay Area, primarily due to higher costs. The annual warehouse operating costs in Stockton are estimated at $18.5 million, which compares favorably with Richmond ($21.6 million) and Oakland ($20.6 million).4 However, this also means that Stockton competes with neighboring cities, such as Lathrop and Tracy. The main advantage Stockton has is its deep-water port, which other cities in the area lack.

Job creation and technology requirements

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates employment in the area of logistics may increase by 21.9 percent between 2012 and 2022, with 27,600 new jobs added.5 The employment characteristics of the logistics industry make it especially suitable for Stockton. Logistics companies have a need to employ a range of diverse profiles, blue-collar and white-collar workers alike. For example, a distribution center requires skilled managers but also warehousing staff such as material handlers; positions, which have low job requirements, where no specialized skills or special licenses and certifications are necessary.

There is a trend towards the creation of more high-skilled jobs in the logistics industry, especially as companies start to make better use of information systems and apply technological innovations in warehouse management and delivery systems.

4 Fujii, R. (September 20, 2013). County a key hub for distribution sites, study says. Recordnet.com. http://www.recordnet.com/article/20130920/A_BIZ/309200307?template=printart 5 Simpson, G. (July 1, 2014). Where are the Supply Chain Jobs? Supply & Demand Chain Executive. http://www.sdcexec.com/article/11543792/the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-estimates-employment-in-logistics-may-increase-by-219-percent-between-2012-and-2022

However, as operational experience is valued in the field, many companies promote from within, resulting in increased career opportunities for lower-paid workers, which also positively affects the local community. Indeed, a report by Accenture shows that a large majority of full-time management employees at UPS rose from non-management positions. Furthermore, as the logistics industry is highly location-specific, future job outsourcing to overseas markets with lower labor costs is unlikely.6

WASTE TIRE RECYCLING

SUPPLIER BARGAINING POWER

Used tires are supplied by landfills and other entities, which hold very limited bargaining power. Local suppliers can offer more competitive prices due to the high percentage of transport cost in raw material cost. The latter accounts for approx. 70 - 80% of all costs.

BUYER BARGAINING POWER

Due to the large number of buyers their bargaining power is limited. However, as in the previous case, local buyers hold more power over waste tire recycling products (WTRP), offering them more attractive pricing. WTRP can sell their products to other buyers at little or no transaction cost.

THREAT OF NEW ENTRANTS

It should be noted that a number of developers are investigating the potential to establish new facilities in California that could use significant quantities of California-generated waste tires for

6 Sheffi, Y. (September 18, 2012). Driving Growth and Employment Through Logistics. MIT Sloan Management Review.

crumb rubber production, pyrolysis, and other types of processes and technologies. So far, none of these proposed or discussed facilities has materialized on a commercial scale. However, if one were to be sited and compete for tires, it could have a significant impact on the supply-demand balance and could negatively affect existing firms involved in managing California scrap tires in terms of access to tires, collection revenues, and competition for sales. Given the current strong demand for California tires, such a venture would likely require attractive pricing to secure an adequate feedstock supply.

THREAT OF SUBSTITUTES

There are no known substitutes for some waste tire derived products. Sale and production of others like Tire Derived Fuel is affected by oil prices.

MARKET SIZE AND MARKET GROWTH

The graph below shows waste tire end-use trends by broad market category since 2002. In recent years, rapid and unprecedented growth in exports of tires to Pacific Rim nations was largely responsible for boosting the overall diversion rate beyond the 72-75 percent level (where it had hovered for more than 10 years). Year-over-year, exports are estimated to have declined by nearly 20 percent in 2013, compared to growth of nearly 30 percent between 2012 and 2013. While overall, exports are estimated to have declined in 2013, this market segment is very dynamic. Exports appear to be on the rebound in 2014, and some established processors continue to feel the impacts from the multi-year export surge, with markedly reduced and/or adjusted operations.

COMPETITIVE R IVALRY

California has a large, dynamic infrastructure for collecting and processing waste tires. In 2013, the vast majority of tires generated in California flowed to one of 14 processors or to one of four exporter facilities (i.e., facilities that primarily or exclusively ship baled or shred tires overseas). Processors are defined as facilities that receive significant quantities of whole, waste tires, and process them to meet market requirements by culling and grading used tires or by producing tire shreds or chips, tire-derived fuel, and/or crumb rubber. Exporters are defined as facilities that accept whole tires for the exclusive or nearly exclusive purpose of preparing them for export overseas. While several of the 14 processors export some TDF or tire shreds, they also ship tires to several other end uses, whereas the four exporters are focused exclusively on export. While the 14 processors are well established and have been in operation for several years, the export facilities are much more dynamic, and in recent years several facilities have started or ceased operations

abruptly. One of the four export facilities active in 2013 has since closed, while at least two new facilities have started up.

JOB GENERATION

According to South Carolina department of commerce, a $1 million investment in waste tire recycling facility would result in 6 additional jobs.

TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS

Operating technology requirement are low, with long technology life cycles. They include tire shredding machine, ground rubber production machine, etc.

10 FACTORS MATRIX

INDUSTRIES LOCATIONS

Industries locations

The implementation of selected key industries in South Stockton was made upon:

existing land use (General Plan of Stockton) South Stockton Land Use Strategy (mentioned later) location of existing nearby industries location of existing industries in Stockton with similar program public transport/cycling accessibility spatial needs of industry transportation requirements technology requirements agricultural preservation limitations

LOCATION 1

Advantages:

Nearby motorway

The proximity of the railway

The size of the parcel

Possible connection to the port

Proximity to other various industries

Disadvantages:

The proximity of residential areas on the north

The most appropriate industry: Logistics center

LOCATION 2

Advantages:

Local road link (two lanes - suitable for truck deliveries)

The proximity of the railway

The size of the parcel

An environment with already existing industries(industrial area)

Disadvantages:

The proximity of residential areas on the north

The most appropriate industry: Almonds & Walnuts

LOCATION 3

Advantages:

Nearby motorway

A large number of empty plots

Industrial area

The railway link

Separation from the residential part of the village due to industrial noise

The most suitable industry: Soya processing that is associated with the railway line to the whole agricultural area of Stockton on the SE and SW

LOCATION 4

Advantages:

Enough high-quality links

Enough space for tire storage

An environment with already existing industries(industrial area)

The area is dislocated from the residential parts so the shredding noise doesn‟t have any influence on the local neighborhoods

Disadvantages:

The proximity of residential areas

The most suitable industry: Tire shredding industry

LOCATION 5

Advantages:

Local road link

Industrial area

Brownfield - parcel low buyout costs

Enough space for further expansion

The cow farms are situated on south

Disadvantages:

There are no railway links

The most suitable industry: Dairy milk

LOCATION 6

Advantages:

Proximity of the Highway

Suitable brownfield parcels with buyout low costs and spatial needs of the industry

An environment with already existing industries(industrial area)

Disadvantages:

There are no railway links

The proximity of residential area

The most suitable Industry: Fruit juices

SOUTH STOCKTON LAND USE STRATEGY

Directions of land use development

The aforementioned industries were also selected upon a strategy, which would bring more systematic and judicious development in pursuit of more coherent and heterogeneous land use. The long red vector in the between the two industrial (blue) vectors on the south is the area of Airport way. Currently the area is industrial, but in the further development we want to combine the two separated industrial areas with a commercial longitudinal line in between them. We also want to connect the residential part to have more areas of mixed use as reflection of the already existing zoning issues. There is also a spatial strategy to develop the areas in a way to further expand existing zones. The industrial and residential parts will

further develop to the more south, which will be intersected by the commercial use streets.

The development of three main land uses in the city (residential, commercial, industrial) would be focusing on infill, revitalization and mixed use, avoiding segregation of program and low-density area. Commercial development would be concentrated along three city major paths, connecting southern part and downtown, while providing a breakthrough through industry zone on the south (for possible future residential development). Residential land use development would be concentrating on the future connection between certain neighborhoods providing a more compact shape, while the industry development would be concentrating on continuation of outlined direction, but at the same time allowing potential residential development on the degraded sites in the future.

SOURCES

http://www.gea-tds.com/tds/cmsresources.nsf/filenames/Fruit%20Juice%20englisch.pdf/$file/Fruit%20Juice%20englisch.pdf

http://www.bevindustry.com/articles/85660-2012-state-of-the-industry--juice---juice-drinks

http://www.statista.com/topics/1896/juice-and-smoothie-market/

http://www.euromonitor.com/juice-in-the-us/report

http://www.euromonitor.com/juice-in-the-us/report

http://www.sgf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/public_download/Downloads_deutsch/SGF%20Forum/2012/Bregenz/Mr_Sonneville_Chancen%20und%20Risiken%20in%20den%20globalen%20Fruchtsaftm%C3%A4rkten.pdf

http://www.ifu-fruitjuice.com/

http://www.walnuts.org/walnut-industry/announcements/industry-newsletter-february-2014/

http://www.walnuts.org/

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/california-walnut-industry-expects-quality-crop-early-222612071.html

http://www.statista.com/statistics/290468/revenue-of-dairy-product-production-in-the-us/

http://www.pmmi.org/files/Research/ExecutiveSummaries/2013DairyExecSummary.pdf

http://www.dairyfarmingtoday.org/Learn-More/FactsandFigures/Pages/DairyFarmSnapshot.aspx

http://www.californiadairies.com/about

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/dairy.aspx

http://cetehama.ucanr.edu/files/135259.pdf

http://www.shellingmachine.com/application/the-California-walnut-industry.html

http://www.shellingmachine.com/uploads/soft/201408/2_04143507.pdf

https://ws.elance.com/file/San_Joaquin_Almond_Farmland_Investments_Harvesting_Value_Beyond_the_Economic_Bubble.pdf?crypted=Y3R4JTNEcG9ydGZvbGlvJTI2ZmlkJTNEMTI0NDEwNTYxJTI2cmlkJTNELTElMjZwaWQlM0QzMzkyODE

http://www.sacbee.com/news/business/article4386210.html

http://www.agmrc.org/commodities__products/nuts/almond-profile/

http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/creating_consumer_demand_around_the_world__1.pdf

http://westernfarmpress.com/tree-nuts/california-almonds-perched-top-global-market

http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/openforum/article/Why-almonds-cover-California-5655309.php

http://www.proag.com/News/Almond-Industry-Projects-Flat-ShortTerm-Growth-2014-12-24/2871

http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/2013_almanac.pdf

http://ucanr.edu/datastoreFiles/608-3.pdf

https://bluediamond.com/index.cfm?navid=65

http://www.almonds.com/sites/default/files/content/attachments/2014_nass_objective_report.pdf

http://www.almonds.com/consumers/about-the-almond-board/overview

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/driving-growth-and-employment-through-logistics/

http://www.sdcexec.com/article/11543792/the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-estimates-employment-in-logistics-may-increase-by-219-percent-between-2012-and-2022

http://www.3plogistics.com/3plmarketglobal.htm

http://www.capgemini.com/resource-file-access/resource/pdf/3pl_study_report_web_version.pdf

http://www.choicesmagazine.org/magazine/article.php?article=152

http://www.ibisworld.com/industry/default.aspx?indid=4

ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROGRAM

DESIGN BACKGROUND - CLIMATE ACTION PLAN

Of the various measures in Stockton‟s Climate Action Plan, projected

voluntary residential energy efficiency savings account for 30-32% of

total local reductions. This is both a daunting challenge and an

enormous opportunity to reduce energy bills and encourage clean

energy jobs. In this section, a simplified model home will present

savings values that make sense - per home rather than per city, for

example. Additionally, strategies for connecting stakeholders,

financing, and outreach will be discussed.

MODELLING APPROACH

In order to best illustrate the benefits of improving existing houses in

terms of energy efficiency, a “typical” home will be modeled. The

model house will be assumed to be the average house encountered in

South Stockton in terms of area and current state of insulation in

walls and roof, lightning, cooling and heating systems and no solar

panels on the roof. For this house, we have also considered an

average electricity bill for a typical year.

While homes in South Stockton vary greatly, a key assumption is that

homes built before the 190‟s and the onset of building energy codes

generally have similar characteristics. According to a report by

Consol, “Seventy percent of the GHG emissions related to single-

family envelope energy consumption can be attributed to homes

built before California had an energy code (1983).”7 Furthermore,

the chosen average electricity bill is based on electricity

consumption and billing data for the specific city area. We are

currently using 2005 Title 24 requirements as a design guide for

improvements that can be made to these homes.

Energy efficiency upgrades to be studied will be separated in

packages keeping in mind the initial cost of investment. The gains

for each package will be quantified in terms of the reduction in the

average electricity bill. Proposed packages for evaluation include:

● Only roof solar panels

● Only wall insulation

● Only roof insulation

● Only new window and door panels

● Full roof and wall insulation and new window and door panels

● Full roof and wall insulation, new window and door panels and new

cooling/heating system

For each case energy gains associated with the changes included and

reduction they will bring to the average electricity bill will be

calculated. The cases above have been chosen in order to illustrate

the impact of small changes that can be carried out but also their

combined impact if all of them are implemented.

Further steps after this initial calculations and illustrations of results

could be the implementation of the model home with the

improvements outlined in this document. This will serve as a site

that can be visited by interested parties on a hot or cold day for

better illustration of the results of improvements on the electricity

7 Consol. Meeting AB 32 – Cost-Effective Green House Gas Reductions

in the Residential Sector. August 2008, Prepared for the California

Homebuilding Association

bills, general feel of the improvements and as a result, better

marketing of the whole package.

Baseline home design

Home with energy efficiency (reflective windows, for example)

Home with rooftop solar

RESULTS

STAKEHOLDERS

The figure above depicts some stakeholders and their goals with

respect to energy. This will be refined to better elucidate the

current relationships between different parties, and ideally show

how they can better work with each other. Some of these are

described below in further detail.

RESIDENTS

While the team does not have a comprehensive understanding of how

South Stockton residents relate with home energy use, insights

brought forward during the community engagement workshop were

incredibly enlightening about some of the challenges the community

faces with respect to energy bills. For one, the proportion of renters

versus homeowners has increased after the foreclosure crisis,

presenting challenges for incentive design, especially for those

landlords who may not have their tenants‟ best interests in mind.

Additionally, the more short-term nature of paying rent versus a

mortgage makes it challenging to promote efficiency improvements

that have greater savings but longer paybacks

UTIL ITY

PG&E, the utility for Stockton, is “decoupled” so that profits aren‟t

tied to energy sales. This makes it easier for it to pursue energy

efficiency objectives, such as the many rebates, assistance programs,

and free weatherizations it provides. Key community education

initiatives and centers include the Energy Training Center for

homeowners and prospective energy professionals, as well as the

Venture Academy‟s New Energy Career Academy for high school

students. However, South Stockton residents without cars may find it

challenging to go to the Energy Training Center, as it is located 40-50

minutes to the north by public transportation. Additionally, very

likely many residents have never heard of this center, and the

potential resources it may offer. Some community members also

expressed distrust with the utility, suggesting that clear, effective

communication and strong consideration of ratepayer needs will be

necessary.

COMMUNITY GROUPS: NONPROFITS, CHURCHES

Some non-profits such as GRID Alternatives offer free or low cost

weatherization to low-income residents in an effort to increase

accessibility to energy bill savings and emissions reductions. This

particular group does operate in the Central Valley, but is based in

Fresno and doesn‟t focus on Stockton. Meanwhile, churches hold a

strong influence in the community, and may also be a valuable

partner for outreach and information sharing.

CONTRACTORS

Companies that perform retrofits have much to gain, as an increase

in efficiency measures will improve business. This ideally will also

mean more entry level local jobs available to residents, especially

considering the resources provided by the Energy Training Center.

Some of these contractors are registered with the HERO program, a

financing program discussed in Section (TBD FILL IN!).

OUTREACH STRATEGY

CONSIDERATIONS

While low-income and underserved populations can benefit

significantly from energy efficiency programs, many are less aware

of these opportunities compared to non-low income counterparts.

According to a study by Evergreen Economics, while 95% of eligible

households in California received assistance on bills, 59% of those

households implemented efficiency measures8. While work is still

required to reach full participation, a separate study found that low

income customers are more likely to carry out efficiency measures

once aware of their benefits9.

COMMUNITY BASED OUTREACH

One potentially effective way to improve awareness of existing

programs involves community based outreach, in which members of

existing non-profits, churches, or other community groups guide

other residents through applications, alert them of opportunities to

save energy, and give advice on how to finance energy savings.

“While these programs take a variety of forms, they have a common

theme—engaging established community leaders and existing social

infrastructure ...to sign up homes and businesses for weatherization

services. These groups educate residents about the benefits of

weatherization, inform them about financing options, and guide

8 Evergreen Economics, Needs Assessment for the Energy Savings

Assistance and the California Alternate Rates for Energy Programs.

December 2013.

9 Navigant

them through the application process. This model has proven to be

effective in engaging residents who would have otherwise been hard

to reach.”

-Center for New American Progress10

COSTS

MODELLED COSTS/BENEFITS

Cost estimates for the model will be computed, and compared with

existing metrics.

On average, weatherization can reduce energy use in low income

homes up to 35%, about $400 of energy savings in their first year11.

CLIMATE ACTION PLAN BUDGET

According to the Climate Action Plan, no capital costs will be

incurred by the city. However, $105,100 is estimated for staff time.

The remainder is expected to be taken on by homeowners, an

estimated $37.5M. The expected benefits will also be passed onto

the homeowners - about $6M/year for an 18 year lifetime.

10 Jorge Madrid and Adam James. Power to the People: Overcoming

Energy Efficiency Barriers for Low-Income Families. Center for

American Progress. February 2012

11 California Recovery Act Makes Nearly 60000 Low Income Homes

Energy Efficient. California Department of Community Services and

Development. October 2012.

EXISTING INCENTIVES/ASSISTANCE

Name Sponsor Benefits Requirements San Joaquin County Weatherization Program

San Joaquin County Human Services Agency

Free weatherizations - measures include insulation, repairs, improved appliances, etc.

A member of the household receives temporary Aid for Needy Families (TANF), Food Stamps, SSI or SSP, Veterans and Survivors Pension or if the household income does not exceed a certain amount http://www.benefits.gov/benefits/benefit-details/1844

Energy Savings Assistance Program

PG&E Repair or replacement of refrigerators, furnaces or water heaters, insulation/ weatherproofing, efficient light bulbs, showerheads, etc

Home 5 years or older, meets CARE guidelines http://goo.gl/8zvcu3 Valid through May 2015

Energy Upgrade California - whole house

PG&E Up to $2500 in rebates PG&E Customers with single family homes Choose measures from a menu of options

Appliance rebates

PG&E Depends on the appliance

Purchase of Energy Star or approved appliance

F INANCING OPTIONS

Program type Pro Con

PACE (HERO, Figtree)

● Approved in Stockton ● No upfront cost- pay with

additional property taxes ● Vetted contractors (3 in Stockton) ● Choice of payback (5/10/15/20

years)

● Higher property tax bills

● Must pay property tax (ineligible to renters)

On-bill financing ● No upfront cost - pay using portion of energy savings

● Good for renters- financing can stay with the property

● Not currently available

● Risk for utility if bills are not paid

Loan (i.e. from the Golden State Finance Authority)

● Up to 50,000 of financing, 6.5% interest for a 15 year loan

● Partner with approved contractor http://www.chfloan.org/programs/energy/overview.shtml

● Only one Stockton based contractor

● No flexibility for loan length

DISCUSSION

While the model can prove extremely helpful as a way to

conceptualize one‟s energy savings, it needs be finely tuned before

it can serve as an accurate representation of potential energy

savings. There is the chance that, even accounting for variability,

that the model will not be helpful as a decision making tool on its

own. Knowledge of individual houses and what they typically lack

will be extremely informative. On the other hand, older houses may

share many of the same problems, and may actually be similarly

responsive to efficiency upgrades.

Two of the key challenges identified during the community

engagement included the inability of residents to pay for long term

savings upfront, and the lack or ineffectiveness of communication

regarding potential efficiency opportunities. The disconnect in

incentives between renters and landlords is strong, especially given

the prevalence of “slumlords” and the shorter term mindset that

typically comes with renting rather than buying a home.

Unfortunately, a program that addresses both this and the high

upfront costs does not currently exist in Stockton - PACE programs

require home ownership, while rebates don‟t eliminate first costs.

On the outreach front, the team is still researching ways to improve

the current model, which isn‟t reaching people effectively.

Community based outreach seems promising, and strategies to

promote efficiency upgrades will be key to realizing the Climate

Action Plan goals.

Another outreach possibility and physical application for the model

home involves bringing it to life - taking a poorly built home and

fixing it up with retrofits, insulation, and repairs, and then making it

open to the public. This fixed-up home could function as a learning

laboratory with explanations of the upgrades, tailored towards

residents (or made interactive and tailored for children), as well as a

potential community center. Partnerships with existing institutions

such as the Energy Training Center and Venture Academy could be

extremely valuable for educational, job training, and outreach

purposes. This concept will be explored further in the next

deliverable.

AIRPORT WAY

INTRODUCTION

In researching South Stockton‟s current condition as a region and a community, we have come across the need for a physical hub: a central location that meets the regular needs and is at a walking distance of its community members. When considering appropriate locations within South Stockton, the first to come up is generally Airport Way. Airport Way is a centrally situated, highly trafficked street, stretching from E Harding Way and leading to Stockton‟s increasingly popular, Stockton Metropolitan Airport (SCK),

We have found that Airport Way contains the infrastructural traits and the development potential to lead South Stockton into a more sustainable future. In our second deliverable, we established a goal of repurposing all of Stockton‟s nineteen currently vacant lots, adding a 2-mile bike lane from E. Miner Avenue to Stockton Airport, and reducing the amount of time necessary to reach a food market to less than five minutes.

South Stockton has experienced tensions between authoritative bodies and members of the community because of the lack of representational governance and policing. Physical and cultural barriers prohibit interactions between the more affluent populations in North Stockton and the comparatively impoverished populations found in South Stockton.

The area around Airport Way is comprised primarily of suburban single-family homes with a large percentage of youth and families. A voiced concern from the community is the lack of safe and edifying activities with which to occupy the youth that alternatively looks to crime and vandalism as a reasonable occupation. Among the budget cuts that arose from Stockton‟s bankruptcy, were all public after-school programs. Our proposal provides educational and youth-engaging programs that should alleviate the effects of this loss.

Financial Center Credit Union is building a new branch on Airport and 10th. In addition to the Credit Union‟s expected returns on this investment, this program offers a significant improvement for the local resident‟s quality of life and has therefore experienced a positive reception from the community where other developments have not. When the community understands a project as beneficial to its members, it respects and supports its development and life.

Yet, in the absence of personal experiences regarding daily life in South Stockton, we led a Community Engagement Workshop/Session in which we seeked the community‟s input in identifying “what‟s working, what‟s not working, and the visible opportunities for improvement”. The community‟s input was invaluable in providing us with an understanding of the human experiences that these statistics represent.

The function of this deliverable will therefore be to combine the research and analysis we have performed with the community‟s take and a selection of relatable case studies to develop a reasonable proposal that will meet the needs of the community while appealing to those in positions of power.

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BENEFITS OF GARDENING FOR CHILDREN

Research shows that gardening provides an array of engagement and educational opportunities for children “including designing, planting and maintaining gardens; harvesting, preparing and sharing food; working cooperatively in groups; working cooperatively in groups; learning about science and nutrition‟ and creating art and stories inspired by gardens” (Yost).

Research-proven benefits include:

Lifelong benefits from interactive knowledge of healthy foods, outdoor physical activity, and positive social interactions

Positive social and interpersonal skills gained from bonding through communal effort

Community growth Healthy eating habits and hands on nutritional education Increase in science achievement and positive attitude towards

learning

Higher self-efficacy and enhanced environmental stewardship and value

Opportunities for special populations including children with learning disabilities and juvenile offenders to engage in positive cooperative effort

STRATEGY ALONG A IRPORT WAY

Based on our past research and responses from the RSSC Community Survey as well as our Community Engagement Session, South Stockton would benefit immensely from basic infrastructure and business development as well as more community amenities. While currently representing the general blight and overlooked nature of the area, the empty lots along Airport Way are perfect starting points for large scale change. Because Airport Way is currently a busy through-way street connecting South Stockton to the rest of Stockton, the empty lots offer ample opportunity for commercial development to capitalize on the passing traffic that otherwise speeds through while serving the community at large.

Because Airport Way is currently vastly underdeveloped, potential developers claim that South Stockton lacks the market for successful business, which largely ignores the impact of passing traffic. Rancho San Miguel is just one attestment to the untapped markets along Airport Way, and hopefully the new Credit Union will further demonstrate the potential within an often overlooked community. However, development along Airport Way clearly needs more incentive to get started, and the community can help catalyze that process while also using the lots as assets and solutions to widespread resident needs.

With this in mind, we approach Airport Way with long term and short term goals and see how those can coalesce to best facilitate a natural progression of development. In the long term, we consider what a fully developed Airport Way would ideally look like and how it connects to the surrounding community as well as Stockton at large. On a more immediate scale, we consider how to most effectively use the assets that already exist to benefit the community now while creating a framework that encourages and initiates sustained progress in the long term.

LONG TERM: MASTER PLAN

Looking at Airport Way overall, we have developed a very general “master plan” for the empty lots along Airport Way. Ideally, every lot can be filled and repurposed in a way that lends itself to the community over the next twenty to thirty years, and our master plan expresses a very rough example of Airport Way after full development. At such a time, Airport Way would serve as a hub of activity and resources for the community as well as a center of commercial growth.

As part of this report, we have marked the empty lots for commercial, open space, and community use that will become more specific as we continue with the design phase. At this point we also have a rough volumetric study of potential structures filling the empty lots that respond to the surrounding area. Moving forward, we will propose a program for each lot and really detail one selected building project.

SHORT TERM: TEMPORARY USE CONCEPT

Incorporating temporary structures and uses into vacant lots along Airport Way can act as a catalyst to promote growth and vitality in South Stockton. Though currently ignored, the empty lots along Airport Way offer many opportunities for immediate as well as long term innovation and development. In particular, a focus on community based and initiated programs and activities will both enliven the area and give residents more spaces to gather and call their own, thus producing immediate results while priming the area for more established uses later on. Farther into the future, each function can be filled with a more permanent structure or program, but prototyping those uses on a smaller scale will help them develop and blossom during the planning phases for long term solutions.

From our research and talking with residents at the Community Engagement Session, the empty lots along Airport Way should be resources rather than deterrents in the community that can serve as hubs of activity both for residents and passersby. Since Airport Way is currently underused and not frequented even by locals, temporary structures and programs can serve as a low-stakes means to attract more activity and bring the community into those spaces. Youth especially need more safe places to go after school for educational and physical engagement, so ideally each design can serve the community as a whole with special attention towards youth empowerment.

Another common complaint and addressable need in the community is the lack of access to food, especially fresh vegetables. Though not even a full grocery store, Rancho San Miguel remains the largest food market for miles. In a largely walking community, residents‟ diets are dictated largely by the limited options available, which lack affordable fresh produce. Given the favorable climate and surrounding agricultural success, home-grown food could be an incredible supplement for the community at large. Community gardens offer a glorious marriage between practical and affordable food supplementation, community enhancement, and educational engagement that also provide beautiful open space that residents themselves manage and value.

Keeping these drivers in mind, we are considering the following potential temporary uses along Airport Way:

Community Garden(s): for residents that also include an educational element collaborating with schools to engage and expose students to affordable, nutritious food

Farmer‟s Market space in/near community garden Tool Sharing/Fix It Center: space for tools to be used by

community and days to bring items to be fixed Flea Market/Trading Center Art Display and Creation Space

In order for such projects to be successful, they need to be designed with the intention of being flexible, portable, and easily manageable. Stacking functions on each plot will increase the feasibility of building structures and the usability of each program. Creating one-stop-shop locations for similar functions will also bring people together in shared activities and increase interactions and collaborations within the community.

Design strategies and materials for temporary structures:

Stack Functions IKEA style building instructions Shipping Containers Mobile Design: wheels, pop-up structures Community Builds: increase agency, ownership, and communal

care for spaces

As we move into the final phase of design, we will provide schematics for the construction of at least one temporary structure that community members can build and use for a variety of purposes. Hopefully in conjunction with our other programmatic suggestions, residents will start to initiate multiple temporary use programs and structures that will benefit the community by bring life and activity to shared spaces along Airport Way.

LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE: CASE STUDIES

SUPERKILLEN BY BIG, TOPOTEK1, AND SUPERFLEX,

COPENHAGEN, DENMARK

Superkilen is a half a mile long urban space wedging through one of the most ethnically diverse and socially challenged neighborhoods in Denmark. It has one overarching idea that it is conceived as a giant exhibition of urban best practice – a sort of collection of global found objects that come from 60 different nationalities of the people inhabiting the area surrounding it. Ranging from exercise gear from muscle beach LA to sewage drains from Israel, palm trees from China and neon signs from Qatar and Russia. Each object is accompanied by a small stainless plate inlaid in the ground describing the object, what it is and where it is from – in Danish and in the language(s) of its origin. A sort of surrealist collection of global urban diversity that in fact reflects the true nature of the local neighborhood – rather than perpetuating a petrified image of homogenous Denmark.

PEOPLE + STREETS = ACTIVE URBAN L IFE, THE DEPARTMENT OF

TRANSPORTATION OF LOS ANGELES

In order to make the most out of the city‟s idle space and to enhance the quality of life, the Department of Transportation of Los Angeles has launched the concept „People St„. Communities can apply for approval to create projects that turn more than 12,000 kilometers of unused streets into active, vibrant and accessible public space into plazas, parklets and bicycle corrals. Fundamental to People St is its bottom-up, community-based approach.

PROSTOROŽ, LJUBLJANA

Savsko naselje is one of larger neighborhoods in Ljubljana that was constructed after war for the working class. In these kinds of neighborhoods live almost half of Lljubljana‟s citizens. Savsko naselje, as one of that kind regressed in past 10 years. Public spaces are neglected due to unspecified management. Once a place to meet and socialize became a space where people fight for parking spaces. Social community is weak - the neighborhood is in need of renovation.

The project of revitalization they connected societies and individuals who will contribute in their respective areas to the revitalization and raising the quality of life in the neighborhood. Our aim is to build on the positive identity of the neighborhood to increase the diversity and regulation of public land and build a strong community.

BROKEN WINDOWS THEORY

- First put forth in a 1982 Atlantic article by James Q. Wilson, a political scientist then at Harvard, and George L. Kelling, a criminologist.

- The theory suggests that a disorderly environment sends a message that no one is in charge, thus increasing fear, weakening community controls, and inviting criminal behavior. It further maintains that stopping minor offenses and restoring greater order can prevent serious crime.

- If you neglect the little problems, your neighborhood will go downhill fast. It starts with with a busted window and before long you'll have graffiti on the walls, trash in the streets, apathetic (or just pathetic) residents turning to petty crime, theft, domestic violence. Soon, you've got a full -fledged problem house on your hands.

CSU STOCKTON INTRODUCTION Stockton is the

largest metropolitan

area in California

without a public

university. Both

Sacramento State and

CSU Stanislaus, the

two closest CSUs, are

about an hour away

from Stockton by car,

as can be seen in

Figure X. This

commute back and

forth can be draining

for students, who can

otherwise use this

time and effort to

focus on their studies. Having a CSU in Stockton would not only make

it easier for students to go to school, and potentially save money by

living at home, but it would also serve as a source of pride for the

city. During the community engagement activity held on February

7th with the help of the Figure X Source: California State

University

Reinvent South Stockton Coalition (RSSC), Hector, one of the

members with RSSC, noted how having a physical campus in the city

would serve as a psychological role in reminding parents and

students alike the usefulness of higher education. Indeed, the

physical presence of the university could serve as motivation for

students to go to a university that they see every day and makes the

goal of going to college much more tangible.

Similarly, having a CSU in Stockton would have a significant

economic impact. For example, CSU Stanislaus has an annual

spending of around $150.2 million, which generates around $169

million for the regional economy and around $269 million for

California‟s economy. This impact translates to supporting more than

2000 jobs in the region and around $8 million in local tax revenues.

These positive results greatly benefit Turlock, the home of CSU

Stanislaus, which has a population of around 70,000. Imagine the

potential benefits for a city with more than quadruple the

population of Turlock. Having a CSU in Stockton will also help

mitigate the „brain drain‟ that happens when the students go to

other cities for higher education and do not come back to Stockton.

URBAN ANALYSIS

With regards to possible locations for CSU Stockton, we looked at

three sites and weighed the pros and cons of each location. We have

settled on two areas in particular: the MLK and Highway 99 site and

lot along Airport Way and Carpenter Road. The pros and cons can be

seen listed on our map and within our decision matrix. The map also

shows where we envision the location of the main campus, as well as

area around the main site that could be used for expansion.

Between these two sites, we will do preliminary environmental and

urban analysis on them to determine the necessary site work and

possible environmental impacts of establishing a university there.

For example, ensuring the campus has good circulation is crucial in

making sure the campus is accessible for a majority of the students.

Having the campus located near public transit or busy streets will

ensure that the campus is seen and serves as a landmark for the city.

With regards to the size and costs of CSU Stockton, we used CSU

Stanislaus as our model for determining the necessary space for the

campus, as we expect CSU Stockton to be more similar to Stanislaus

than Sacramento State. The current number of full-time students at

CSU Stanislaus is around 8900 full-time students, with a capacity of

12,000 full-time students, and the corresponding land usage was

found on the master plan. The campus of CSU Stanislaus is around

228 acres, with more than 50% of those acres left as open space.

Since the space in the chosen lots is limited, we plan to have CSU

Stockton built in phases. Phase 1 would accommodate 10,000 full-

time students, and Phase 2 would accommodate the anticipated

growth. Using CSU Stanislaus as a reference, CSU Stockton at its

maturity should have around 35,000 students. This number was

calculated using a ratio of Turlock‟s population compared to

Stockton‟s population.

One issue that all the sites share is the limited amount of space

available for the campus and future expansions. Most of the other

CSUs when they were established did not face this problem, because

they tended to be established first, and then the community would

coalesce around the university, as in the case of CSU Stanislaus. CSU

Stanislaus has a campus that is mostly left as open space. In order

the maximize the limited space, CSU Stockton could reduce the

percentage of open space on the campus. Depending on the location,

the CSU could take advantage of nearby parks for open spaces, like

how the MLK site is near the county fairgrounds. Maximizing the infill

development could also serve as a model for the city, as it struggles

to promote infill development and deal with urban sprawl.

Instructional GSF 623,482 Instructional GSF / student 51.96 gsf / student

Library 123,319 Library / student 10.28 gsf / student

Housing / Dining 226,292 Housing / Dining / student 18.86 gsf / student

Administrative / Student Services 227,642 Administrative / student 18.97 gsf / student

Other Support 66939 Other Support / Student 5.58 gsf / student

Parking spots 2667 Parking / student 22.23%

# of beds 656 Beds / students 5.47%

Table X (Source: CSU Stanislaus Campus Master Plan)

Based on the values found on the website, we calculated the gross

square foot per student, as well as the percentage of parking spots

and number of beds compared to students. For reference, gross

square foot refers to the total square feet of the building, including

the mechanical cores and other non-usable areas. Similar to CSU

Stanislaus, we expect most of the students at CSU Stockton to be

from the city or region, thus minimizing the need for housing on

campus. CSU Stanislaus estimates that around 10% of the students

live on campus, with the rest commuting to school. CSU Stockton is

targeted for the Stocktonians, so housing is not expected to be a

priority for the first few years of the university.

Thus, using the number of square foot per student from CSU

Stanislaus, we can approximate the necessary gross square footage

for Phase 1. The total gross square footage necessary for the Phase 1

buildings comes out to 1,056,395 gsf.

Instructional 519,568.33 gsf

Library 102,765.83 gsf

Housing / Dining 188,576.67 gsf

Administrative / Student Services 189,701.67 gsf

Other Support 55,782.50 gsf

Parking spots 2222.5

# of beds 546.7

Grand total 1,056,395 gsf

Table: gross square footage based on building use

CONSTRUCTION BUDGET

With regards to the construction budget, we used the CSU‟s own

estimate for construction costs per gross square foot to calculate the

total costs of the necessary structures for the campus.

Construction Costs per GSF for

CSUs with General Contractor Total Costs

Classroom $352 $182,888,053

Library $311 $31,960,174

Housing / Dining $274 $51,670,007

Administration $354 $67,154,390

Structure and surface per

space $19,278 $42,845,355

Per bed $106,387 $58,158,227

Grand

Total $434,676,206

Note: Site Work is assumed to

be 3% of Building Costs

Including

Site Work $447,716,492

Table X (Source: CSU Cost Guide)

Thus, adding up the values in Table X, the estimated total for phase

1 of CSU Stockton comes out to roughly $450 million. This cost

estimate is not broken down by material or labor costs, but will be

explored in the final proposal.

Sample Project Type Typical Project

Duration

Typical Construction

Duration

Large science / medical project

(>25,000 sf) 3-5 years 2-3 years

Large office / classroom project (>25k

sf) 3-4 years 1-2 years

Large housing project (>25k sf) 2-3 years 1-2 years

Table X (Source: Stanford University, Schedule Development)

The schedule seen in Table X regarding the construction of these

buildings are approximated using values from Stanford University‟s

Department of Project Management. We will use this data to

estimate the schedule for phase 1, and make a preliminary Microsoft

Project timeline, starting from site development to closeout.

Another important aspect of the campus is the expected energy

usage of the buildings. The table below has the average electricity

and water usage for different types of building for the month of

January 2015 at Stanford University. Once we determine the number

and square footage of the buildings for phase 1, we will use this

information to estimate the energy consumption of the CSU Stockton

campus.

Building

Electricity

Consumption for

January 2015

Water Consumption for

January 2015

Average Athletic Facility 74,187 kWh 23,295 cubic feet

Average Common 76,612 kWh 15,505 cubic feet

Average High Intensity Lab 296,766 kWh 6387 cubic feet

Average Library 88,479 kWh 8927 cubic feet

Average Residence 39,487 kWh 36,530 cubic feet

Average Classroom / Office 90,284 kWh 4696 cubic feet

Table: (Source: Stanford University, Sustainable Stanford, 2015)

In our final proposal, we also plan to create a few models of these

buildings, like the classrooms, and use them to analyze various

properties such as energy usage and construction scheduling.

PROGRAMS With regards to the majors and programs to be offered by CSU

Stockton, we anticipate it will have similar offerings to CSU

Stanislaus. The rough breakdown by major would be: 10% agriculture,

30% arts / humanities / social sciences, 20% business, 10% education,

15% health professionals, 4% law and legal studies, and 11% STEM

majors. Another estimation by the San Joaquin Delta College

forecasts that the sectors expected to grow in the San Joaquin

County include computer networking and computer science, health

science, nursing, and sustainability-related majors. Thus, it seems

prudent for CSU Stockton to build science and laboratories in future

phases to accommodate the expected growth in the healthcare and

technology sectors.

BUDGET / FINANCIAL AID The initial financing for a CSU would come from both the state and

from the local community. With regards to the structures, only the

buildings with direct links to education are funded by the state, like

the classrooms, labs, offices, gyms, and offices. Other buildings, like

the residence and dining halls, student union, and parking structures,

are not funded by the state. These are funded partly by the students

through their payments in room and board. After the university is up

and running, the tuition and other fees paid by the students will help

finance the university as well.

The campus budget of CSU Stanislaus for the 2014-15 school year is

$96,859,774, which is on the lower side of the statewide CSU

budgets. Though we do not have any concrete number for the

expected budget of CSU Stockton, we would expect it to be lower

than $90 million for the first few years, as it takes root and slowly

grows in student population.

Financial aid will be important for CSU Stockton. At Stanislaus, 88%

of the full-time undergraduates were determined to have a financial

need. Of the undergraduates that were determined to have financial

need, 91% of them received financial aid. The average full-time

undergraduate for the 2010-2011 academic year at CSU Stanislaus

has a financial aid package of around $8000, which does not include

any private alternative loans. Stanislaus also offers need-based gift

awards, with the average amount awarded to undergraduates coming

to about $6700. The average need-based loan for a student was

around $4300. There were also awards for students who had no

financial aid need and still received non-need-based aid, with an

average of $1000 given to undergraduates. The estimated

percentage of students who borrowed through all of the loan

programs is around 18%.

The tuition rate for the CSU system is the same: $5472 per academic

year for undergraduates enrolled in more than 6 units per term and

$3174 for those taking 6 or fewer units. There are also mandatory

fees that students must pay that are dependent on the campus. For

Stanislaus, the mandatory fees for the 2014-2015 school year are

$1214.

We expect a majority of the students to utilize financial aid, as the

targeted population of Stockton generally is of lower-income.

The credit union expected to open along Airport Way can serve as

another way for students to finance their education. Generally,

credit unions offer personal loans of up to $50,000 with terms up to

72 months, with corresponding higher APR rates based on the

duration of the loan.

PUBLIC RELATIONS PLAN The idea for a CSU Stockton is important for the city, but the

message must also be communicated with the local community. The

first step to advocating for a CSU in Stockton would be to raise

awareness about the benefits and opportunities that come from

having a college degree. Without the residents seeing why higher

education is important, the CSU will not be fully utilized by the

people it is meant to benefit. As noted earlier in our introduction,

having a CSU in Stockton will serve as a tangible model for the

community. CSU Stockton would start off attracting local high school

students and be primarily a commuter-based institution. CSU

Stockton staff could also promote the university by attending college

fairs at the local high schools and by informing high school

counselors about opportunities at CSU Stockton.

CONCLUSIONS We hope our analysis on the feasibility of a CSU in Stockton will help

the decision-makers with giving California‟s largest metropolitan

area without a public university its own CSU. We understand that the

process for creating a new CSU requires much more work, but this

will hopefully serve as a baseline for any future studies. There is a

current bill in the California State Assembly that would look into the

feasibility of a CSU in Stockton. However, there has been no updates

regarding the status of the bill, so we can only offer our study as a

preliminary report. For our final design proposal, we intend to have

a detailed analysis of the site, campus, and other necessary

information to reflect the necessary resources for establishing a

California State University in Stockton.