stocks are re-testing resistances

8/9/2019 Stocks are Re-testing Resistances

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Princeton, NJ . ValuEngine

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April 30, 2010 – Stocks are Re-testing Resistances

Treasury y ields are in a stalemate between supply and risk aversion as the 10-Year tested andcould not take out i t’s semiannual pivot at 3.675. If Comex Gold can close above my semiannualresistance at $1186.5 today, look for a new high in May as currency of last resort, as the PIIGScontagion is a real risk . Nymex Crude Oil is in a tug of war between commodity speculation andprospect of slower GDP growth in the second half of 2010, as Initial Jobless Claims remain wellabove the 350,000 Recession threshold. The Euro is trying to stabilize above 1.32 after dippingbelow that level earlier in the week. The major equity averages are back near longer-termresistances as gains of the last two days nearly of fset the declines of Tuesday.

Daily 10-Year Gold Crude Oil EuroJapanese

YenThe Dow Nasdaq

4/29/2010 3.734 1167.8 85.37 1.3227 94.07 11,167 2512

4/28/2010 3.776 1167.4 83.34 1.3207 94.10 11,045 2472

Daily Chg -0.042 0.4 2.03 0.002 -0.03 122 4012/31/2009 3.841 1097.4 79.62 1.4324 92.95 10,428 2269

YTD Change -0.107 70.4 5.75 -0.1097 1.12 739 243

Supports 3.983 W 1146.2 W 77.05 A 1.3130 D 92.73 S 10,379 A 2415 M

4.250 S 1139.7 S 58.41 Q 1.2450 Q 87.17 M 7,490 Q 2392 S

1139.7 S 82.81 Q 2258 S

1115.2 A 80.22 A 2250 A

Pivots 3.723 D 93.16 Q 11,165 D

3.675 S

Resistances 3.607 M 1178.4 D 86.26 W 1.3401 W 94.99 D 11,228 W 2530 D

3.467 Q 1186.5 S 86.51 D 1.4081 M 95.78 W 11,235 A 2549 W

1202.5 M 97.29 A 1.5461 S 105.10 S 11,442 S 2620 W

97.50 S 1.5791 A 106.10 A 11,483 WFive-Week 3.781 1130.9 82.24 1.3557 92.26 10,850 2409

Five- Month 3.552 1063.4 75.58 1.3984 91.81 10,028 2148

Int Sent 3.4 / 3.5 6.2 / 6.7 7.8 / 8.0 1.6 / 1.7 6.4 / 6.8 8.4 / 8.7 8.6 / 8.8

LT Sent 3.1 / 2.8 7.8 / 7.6 7.0 / 7.6 6.6 / 6.1 2.8 / 3.1 7.6 / 8.0 7.9 / 8.3

10-Year Note – Weekly and semiannual supports are 3.983 and 4.250 with daily and semiannual pivotsat 3.723 and 3.675, and monthly and quarterly resistances at 3.607 and 3.467. The daily chart shows aMOJ O divergence that favors higher yields but that changes given a close today richer that mysemiannual pivot at 3.675.



Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – Weekly, semiannual, annual, quarterly and annual supports are $1146.2, $1139.7,$1115.2, $1052.8 and $938.7 with daily, semiannual and monthly resistances at $1178.4, $1186.5 and$1202.5. Rising MOJ O favors some upside but today’s close needs to be above $1186.5.




Nymex Crude Oil – Annual and quarterly supports are $77.05 and $58.41 with weekly and dailyresistances at $86.26 and $86.51. Annual and semiannual resistances: $97.29 and $97.50. Flat MOJ Osuggests that oil should have a problem grinding through $86.51 today.


The Euro – Daily and quarterly supports are 1.3130 and 1.2450 with weekly, monthly and quarterlyresistances at 1.3401, 1.4081, 1.4145 and 1.4478. Declining MOJ O reflects limited near term upside.




The Major Equity Averages

29-Apr YTD 31-Dec Cycle Cycle Date of % High % Off % Of

Market Price Gains Price Lows Highs Highs To Lows Lows Highs

The Dow 11,167.00 7.1% 10,428.00 6,469.95 14,198.10 Oct-07 -54.4% 72.6% 21.3%

S&P 500 1,206.80 8.2% 1,115.10 666.92 1,576.06 Oct-07 -57.7% 81.0% 23.4%

Nasdaq 2,512.00 10.7% 2,269.00 1,265.52 2,861.51 Oct-07 -55.8% 98.5% 12.2%

Utilities 384.65 -3.4% 398.01 288.66 555.71 Jan-08 -48.1% 33.3% 30.8%

Transports 4,763.00 16.2% 4,100.00 2,134.21 5,536.57 May-08 -61.5% 123.2% 14.0%

Russell 2000 737.74 18.0% 625.39 342.59 862.00 Jul-07 -60.3% 115.3% 14.4%

Semis (SOX) 393.97 9.5% 359.91 167.55 549.39 Jul-07 -69.5% 135.1% 28.3%

Dow – Annual and quarterly supports are 10,379 and 7,490 with a daily pivot at 11,165, and monthly,annual, semiannual and weekly resistances at 11,228, 11,235, 11,442 and 11,483.

S&P 500 – Annual support is 1014.2 with annual, semiannual and monthly pivots at 1179.0, 1194.6 and1199.6, and daily and weekly resistances at 1211.3, 1224.5 and 1254.3. Quarterly support is 805.4 withsemiannual resistance at 1281.1.

NASDAQ – Monthly and semiannual supports are 2415 and 2392 with daily and weekly resistances at2530, 2549 and 2620. Semiannual, annual and quarterly supports are 2258, 2250 and 1833 with

annual support at 1659.

Dow Utilities – My monthly pivot is 384.78 with daily, monthly and weekly resistances at 389.71,394.36 and 396.52. Annual and quarterly supports are 315.38 and 307.70 with annual and semiannualresistances are 456.73, 471.95 and 492.05.

Dow Transports – Semiannual, monthly and annual supports are 4488, 4397 and 4324 with daily,weekly and daily resistances at 4805, 4817 and 4832. Quarterly supports are 3447 and 3142 withannual and semiannual resistances at 4955 and 5218.

Russell 2000 – Semiannual and monthly supports are 673.50 and 672.65 with semiannual and annualpivots at 717.69 and 723.54, and daily, annual and weekly resistances at 751.26, 748.99 and 767.19.

Quarterly support is 509.08.

The SOX – Monthly and semiannual supports are 361.9 and 358.89 with daily and weekly resistancesat 399.37 and 408.42. Quarterly, semiannual and annual supports are 278.30, 271.90, 259.45 and241.05.



Dow Tracks – Daily Chart

Daily Dow: There’s an up trend resistance line that connects highs going back to November 2009. Wenow have declining MOJ O with the 21-day simple moving average at 11,045. A close today below11,045 shifts the daily chart to negative and indicates risk to the 50-day and 200-day simple movingaverages at 10,783 and 10,132.

Weekly Dow: The Dow ended last week above its 200-week simple moving average at 11,134 with the61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the October 2007 to March 2009 low at 11,246. This level wastested on Monday wi th a new high for the year at 11,258. MOJ O has become even moreoverbought. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought on a close this week above its 5-week modified moving average at 10,886. My annual pivot is 11,235 with semiannual and weeklyresistances at 11,442 and 11,483. I still predict Dow 8,500 before Dow 11,500.

Monthly Dow: Back in March 2009 the Dow held the up trend that goes back to the low following “TheCrash of 1987”. The Dow also held its 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from the 1987 low andthe October 2007 high. ValuEngine showed all eleven sectors as 32% to 45% undervalued. Thesewere the reasons I predicted a 40% to 50% rally for stocks. Today sectors are overvalued by 2% to23.5%. The 120-month s imple moving average is 10,462.


That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.



Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com (800) 381-5576

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go towww.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.

“ I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

stocks are re-testing resistances

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