stock rating: ceva inc. · to price target" sections at the end of this report, where...
TRANSCRIPT
Andrew Uerkwitz212 [email protected]
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Asa result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect theobjectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making theirinvestment decision. See "Important Disclosures and Certifications" section at the end of this report forimportant disclosures, including potential conflicts of interest. See "Price Target Calculation" and "Key Risksto Price Target" sections at the end of this report, where applicable.
Stock Price Performance
Q2 Q3 Q1 Q2 Q30
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16
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2011
1 Year Price History for CEVA
Created by BlueMatrix
Company Description
CEVA Inc. designs and licenses siliconintellectual property for handsets, portablemedia, and consumer electronics. It focuses ondigital signal processor cores.
August 4, 2011 ISRAEL/ISRAELI TECHNOLOGY AND DIVERSIFIED COMPANIES
Stock Rating:
OUTPERFORM12-18 mo. Price Target $34.00
CEVA - NASDAQ $25.62
3-5 Yr. EPS Gr. Rate 26%
52-Wk Range $35.60-$11.12
Shares Outstanding 23.0M
Float 22.7M
Market Capitalization $590.2M
Avg. Daily Trading Volume 267,756
Dividend/Div Yield NA/NM
Fiscal Year Ends Dec
Book Value $7.39
2011E ROE 8.2%
LT Debt NA
Preferred NA
Common Equity $177M
Convertible Available No
EPS Diluted Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Mult.
2009A 0.11 0.08 0.12 0.11 0.42 61.0x
2010A 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.19 0.56 45.8x
2011E 0.23A 0.22A 0.22 0.20 0.87 29.4x
2012E -- -- -- -- 0.98 26.1x
2013E -- -- -- -- 1.25 20.5x
CEVA Inc.Using Handset/Merchant Chip 2Q Results to LookForward to CEVA 4Q
SUMMARY
We view recent weakness in CEVA's stock price (-8.4% last 30 days vs. NASDAQ's
-4.4%) as a buying opportunity. Aside from several negative macro trends, we
believe weakness in the stock is from investors fearing a slowdown in the
company's growth trajectory. We find evidence in both the end market, handset
manufacturers, and CEVA's customers, merchant chip makers. Furthermore, we
believe CEVA's real strength lies in its ability to work across the handset
verticals—feature phones, smartphones, and tablets—but is hard to see in the
company's latest results. This report attempts to siphon recent company earnings
reports to bear this out. Maintain Outperform rating and $34 price target.
KEY POINTS
■ Handset Makers: Apple and Samsung reported strong smartphone growth and
we believe this was driven by CEVA DSP-powered handsets. Thus CEVA
guided to slightly positive royalty sequential growth despite some weakness.
More importantly, the companies forecast a better 3Q, which sets CEVA up well
for 4Q as the company reports royalties one quarter in arrears.
■ Merchant Chip Makers: The softness Broadcom experienced with Nokia in 2Q
is the primary driver for the "slightly higher" royalty headwind. However,
Broadcom stated that it expects double-digit growth for 3Q which sets CEVA up
well for 4Q. Other merchant chip makers using CEVA DSP are expected to be
on track for similar growth.
■ Headwinds Overblown: While declining market share for Nokia and possibly
downside risk associated with Apple and its iPhone will be challenges, we
believe company-specific dynamics in favor of CEVA are being overlooked.
Moreover, CEVA's diverse customer and product mix will help to insulate any
weakness.
■ Maintain Outperform: We believe CEVA's growth story will continue and its
recent results actually strengthen it as we believe inroads in the
smartphone/tablet space show that the company is executing its plan. However,
larger macroeconomic dynamics keep us from pushing our price target higher.
■ Inside we take a look at customer and OEM dynamics affecting CEVA.
EQUITY RESEARCH
COMPANY UPDATE
Oppenheimer & Co Inc. 300 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10017 Tel: 800-221-5588 Fax: 212-667-8229
2
Investment Thesis We are maintaining our Outperform rating and $34 price target for CEVA as we believe
that CEVA:
1. is executing its plan to expand its customer base and ultimately OEM base as
seen by new models driving OEM growth
2. headwinds with Nokia and Apple are overblown and there is a disconnect
between perceived weakness and our expectation of continued strength
3. out-year growth rates remain intact based on its strong licensing wins
Bottom line: We believe recent weakness in the stock price is a buying opportunity as
recent results from OEMs as well as CEVA licensing wins indicate to us that the company
will continue its long-term growth trajectory. We keep our price target, however, as
general negative macroeconomic issues overhang the market. Even in a negative
economic environment, we believe CEVA will continue to grow its DSP shipments by
being in growth markets and executing its plan for market share gain.
Summary of the Macro Handset Environment: We expect total handset shipments to
increase 10.5% from 2010 to 2011. Looking at the near term, we see it increasing 4% in
3Q11 and 12.8% in Q411. This sets up nicely for CEVA for the 4Q11 and 1Q12 as it
reports royalty rates one quarter in arrears. More specifically, we see weakness at
Motorola Mobility, RIM, and LG, 3 makers CEVA has no or little exposure to (we highlight
below the dynamic at LG that limits CEVA downside). The biggest gains we see in the
near term are at Samsung, Apple, and HTC, where CEVA has exposure at the first two
with the third only commanding about 3% of the market. Please see Oppenheimer &
Co.’s Industry Update entitled, “2Q11 Wireless and Tablet Snapshot” for more discussion.
Summary of Tablet Market: With Apple commanding the tablet market (we estimate 72%
in 2011 and 76% in 2012) and Samsung’s Galaxy tablet in a distant but commanding 2nd
–
CEVA is the leader in DSP technology in this space as it is in all non-CDMA tablets of
both Apple and Samsung. We believe more than 75% of tablets are non-CDMA. New
competitors – Sony, Acer, and Panasonic – all use CEVA-based technologies which
should allow CEVA to comfortably maintain and grow its share. We expect tablets to
increase from 17 million units in 2010 to 94.5 million in 2013. We estimate the share of
baseband DSPs for CEVA of tablets will represent about 3% in 2011 and about 6% in
2013 (yet in aggregate gain about 58 million units).
Licensing Revenue = Icing on the Cake Today, Growth Tomorrow: Licensing
Revenue is currently outpacing management forecasts at the beginning of the year ($18-
$19 million guided vs. 1H11 of $10.3 million). We also note an increase of $3.3 million in
deferred revenue on the balance sheet related to licensing. While this has been a
positive for this year’s results, we believe the more important takeaway is CEVA’s
technology acceptance in new generation products as most of the new licensing
agreements have been for 4G networks or using older CEVA offerings for new markets –
such as smart grid. We believe using CEVA – XC for smart grid applications when this
technology is also used for mobile handsets shows the breadth of the technology as well
as the incremental income potential of new markets.
As CEVA continues to grow its market share and customer base, we see potential upside
to our price target; however, due to macroeconomic concerns, we reiterate it at $34 and
our Outperform rating.
CEVA Inc.
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Selection of OEM Results and the Effects on CEVA
Samsung
Samsung reported strong 2Q11 handset/smartphone shipments QoQ growth of high
single digits with gains driven by smartphones (from all regions) which offset slight
weakness in feature phones. The market was flat quarter-over-quarter. Based on our
analysis of 374M handsets sold in the quarter, Samsung’s market share gained 150 basis
points. Most importantly, management is bullish on more share gains in 3Q11 with high
single digit or more quarter-over-quarter growth. This push is from the newer models –
Galaxy S and S II, Ace, Mini, and Gio. Each of these models is supported by CEVA
technologies if it’s on a non-CDMA network – which we estimate is upwards of 80% of the
models. Moreover, on future models that support CDMA/EV-DO (the LTE standard),
Samsung will use CEVA technologies in all of them.
Tablets: The majority of the Samsung Galaxy tablets are also supported by CEVA
technologies, and Samsung management expects shipments to be 5x 2010 levels (~1.5
million last year).
Bottom line: With Samsung growing market share on the back of smartphones, of which
the large majority are using CEVA technology, tablet growth, and future models further
increasing CEVA customer share, Samsung devices are quickly becoming a primary
driver for CEVA.
Apple
Apple shipped 20.3 million units in 2Q11. This is up from 18.6 million in 1Q11 and more
than double year-over-year. We estimate that 85-90% use CEVA technology since all
non-CDMA iPhones use CEVA. We expect 22 million units to be sold in 3Q and the
percentages to hold regarding CEVA based iPhones since the growth is coming from
emerging markets.
Tablets: Apple shipped 9.2 million tablets in the 2Q – up from 4.7 million in 1Q. For the
year, we estimate that Apple will sell 33.3 million compared to 7.5 million 2010. Like the
iPhone, a good majority of these use CEVA technology (again, all iPads that are not on
the CDMA network use CEVA technology).
Implications of the iPhone 5: We believe the market is overstating the downside risk to
CEVA of Apple potentially using Qualcomm as a sole source for chipsets in the iPhone 5.
We believe the unit impact over the next 12-18 months is overstated. We also believe that
longer term, CEVA is well positioned. First, let’s look at the numbers. Based on our
expectations for 2011, approximately 65 million iPhones will be sold using CEVA
technology. This represents about 5% of CEVA DSP basebands sold. Second, we
expect iPhone 5 sales in emerging markets (where we think most of the current strength
for Apple iPhone sales is) will be minimal as we believe the older Apple models, the 3GS
and the 4, will continue to dominate these markets’ sales – thus limiting the impact to
CEVA.
This leads us to believe that Apple will ultimately differentiate its offerings based on
networks/price points. What we mean by this is that we expect in the near term the
iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 will continue to play a large role in sales to the emerging
markets – China, Brazil, India, etc. because the iPhone 5 will not only be too expensive for
CEVA Inc.
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these markets, but also over-specced. Moreover, Apple management has indicated they
view a lower price iPhone as integral to their strategy and used the 3GS as an example of
how older models will play a role in entering the lower price point markets.
If Apple develops a new phone for the emerging markets, this plays to CEVA’s strength –
being able to offer multi-network capable DSPs at very good price points relative to
performance. The 3GS and the 4 are a testament to this.
Bottom line: So while we view the potential QualComm – Apple relationship as a threat
to CEVA, we do not expect CEVA to lose a material amount of baseband units.
Nokia
Nokia shipped 88.5 million devices in 2Q11 vs. 108.5 million in 1Q11 with more than half
the decline coming from China (down 12.6 million units quarter-over-quarter). Looking at
handset breakdown, we estimate smartphone sales declined 7.5 million units and feature
phones declined 12.5 million units. Either trend if it continues is worrisome for CEVA in
the long run. However, over the next 6 – 12 months, we are not worried. First, CEVA is
gaining market share within Nokia. We estimate that within the 350 million units Nokia
sold in 2010, approximately 100 million units used CEVA DSP technology. In 2011, we
estimate Nokia will sell 391 million units and of this at least 200 million will use CEVA
technology. And in 2012, we expect the penetration trend to continue as we believe 100%
of Nokia feature phones will use CEVA going forward.
Second, we believe Nokia will be able to stabilize its sales by the time CEVA is fully
integrated in Nokia models by the end of 2012. We gain further confidence with the Nokia
management indicating it is focused on feature phones to the emerging markets – its
traditional strength – and this is CEVA’s strength within Nokia. Finally, the companies
Nokia is losing share to are companies that predominantly use or are trending their use
more to CEVA.
Bottom line: Yes, Nokia is losing share to its competitors but the perceived effects on
CEVA are overblown. Even with declining sales, CEVA should increase its units within
Nokia as its “market share” within Nokia increases. Second, the OEMs Nokia is losing
share to are competitors that use CEVA technology.
LG
LG reported increased shipments to 24.8 million units, up from 24.5 million last quarter,
but down from the year before. Its market share held steady at an estimated 6.6%. To
CEVA’s benefit, LG’s mix shifted more toward smart phones. Management noted positive
sales of the Optimus 2X/Black in Europe and the Optimus One in North America. All of
the European models and the non-CDMA models in North America use CEVA
technologies.
Bottom line: With LG’s focus on smartphones – especially with advanced features such
as 3D and 4G LTE – CEVA will benefit as these phones are expected to continue to use
CEVA-based technologies.
Sony-Ericsson
Sony-Ericsson shipped 7.6 million devices in 2Q, down 6.2% quarter-over-quarter and
down 30.9% year-over-year. Like LG, Sony-Ericsson saw increased sales of
smartphones. The earthquake in Japan is estimate to have shaved 1.5 million devices off
its sales. Also like LG, its smart phones use CEVA technologies.
CEVA Inc.
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Bottom line: As more OEMs look to the smartphone for growth, CEVA should benefit.
For 3Q, we expect modest growth for Sony-Ericsson based on smartphone sales and a
more normalized quarter after the earthquake.
Others + China
We believe CEVA continues to make inroads with ZTE, Micromax, and Huawei among
others. We’ll highlight one relationship: Mstar Semiconductor, known for its LCD monitor
and TV industry. However, it has entered the mobile phone chip business. It uses CEVA
DSP technology. Mstar has made inroads mostly in India and provides the basebands for
Micromax – a larger Indian carrier – and its successful Qube model line. We believe this
quarter really highlights CEVA strength in that it continues to grow its 2G business, has a
broad enough base to overcome weakness from a large customer, and has shown that it
can quickly penetrate the next generation market in developed countries.
China: While Spreadtrum hasn’t reported its 2Q11 results as of this writing, we expect it
to show continued market gains in China. Further, we note that China Mobile – using the
GSM (2G) and TD-SCDMA (3G) network – has the largest subscriber base for both, 581
million and 35 million, respectively. Both of these networks play to CEVA’s strengths.
Further, because of the different networks in China, CEVA’s DSP technology has the
ability to unify the different protocols onto a single DSP. And according to CEVA
management, the industry predicts Spreadtrum to have 40-45% of the TD-SCDMA market
in China.
CEVA Inc.
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Other companies mentioned in this report (prices a/o 6/20/11):
Qualcomm (QCOM - NASDAQ, $53.73, Outperform)
Nokia, (NOK – NYSE, $5.42, Perform)
Apple (AAPL – NASDAQ, $392.57, Outperform)
Samsung (005930 – KSE, 821000 KRW, Not Rated)
LG (003550 – KRX, 73200 KRW, Not Rated)
Broadcom (BRCM – NASDAQ, $36.10, Outperform)
Sony Corp. (SONY – TSE, $25.06, Not Rated)
Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD, $14.29, Not Rated)
CEVA Inc.
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Investment Thesis
CEVA, the leading baseband DSP solution provider, is well positioned to continue growing its market share as more
handsets come to market using its technology both in the 2G/3G feature phone market (developing countries) and the
smartphone markets (developed countries). Moreover, recent license agreements indicate the trend should continue as
handset makers move to 4G/LTE networks and CEVA licenses are moved to new markets such as the smart grid.
Price Target Calculation
Our $34 price target is derived using a peer group 2013 P/E multiple of 27x on our estimate of $1.25. As CEVA has become better
known in the investing world, it has traded most closely with a peer group that includes ARM Holdings (ARMH-NASDAQ, $25.21, Not
Rated) and Imagination Technologies (IMG.L-LSE, £3.27, Not Rated). Because each has similar end-markets and business model, we
believe this trend will continue. We believe due to ARMH's outsized market share and size, it should be trading at a premium while
IMG.L should be trading at a discount as CEVA has better longer term growth prospects. Thus, we believe that an average of the two
(27x 2013E P/E) seems most appropriate.
Key Risks to Price Target
Slow adoption of new technologies means slower growth; slow to innovate, as seen with 2G, first-mover advantage can be a defining
one; business model moves back toward vertically integrated semiconductor companies or moves in-house at the OEM level.
Important Disclosures and CertificationsAnalyst Certification - The author certifies that this research report accurately states his/her personal views about the
subject securities, which are reflected in the ratings as well as in the substance of this report.The author certifies that no
part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report.
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Important Disclosure Footnotes for Companies Mentioned in this Report that Are Covered byOppenheimer & Co. Inc:
Stock Prices as of August 4, 2011
Broadcom Corporation (BRCM - Nasdaq, 34.38, OUTPERFORM)QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM - Nasdaq, 51.25, OUTPERFORM)Nokia Corporation (NOK - NYSE, 5.02, PERFORM)Apple Inc. (AAPL - Nasdaq, 377.37, OUTPERFORM)
CEVA Inc.
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2009 2010 2011
08/26/08P:NA
09/18/08NR:NA
09/22/08P:NA
04/05/11O:$55
Rating and Price Target History for: Broadcom Corporation (BRCM) as of 08-04-2011
Created by BlueMatrix
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2009 2010 2011
11/07/08O:$45
11/14/08O:$40
12/01/08O:$38
04/28/09O:$47
07/22/09O:$52
09/07/09O:$56
11/05/09O:$54
01/28/10O:$52
07/12/10O:$45
10/12/10O:$51
11/03/10O:$52
11/17/10O:$54
01/27/11O:$60
04/20/11O:$65
Rating and Price Target History for: QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) as of 08-04-2011
Created by BlueMatrixResearch coverage transferred to Ittai Kidron on January 14,2008.
CEVA Inc.
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2009 2010 2011
09/05/08O:$26
10/16/08O:$22
11/14/08P:NA
Rating and Price Target History for: Nokia Corporation (NOK) as of 08-04-2011
Created by BlueMatrix
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2009 2010 2011
10/10/08O:$145
12/17/08P:NA
01/06/09O:$135
01/15/09O:$120
04/22/09O:$140
06/03/09O:$160
07/22/09O:$185
10/01/09O:$210
10/20/09O:$235
01/26/10O:$255
01/27/10O:$265
04/15/10O:$285
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06/25/10O:$345
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01/03/11O:$385
01/12/11O:$395
01/19/11O:$425
04/20/11O:$465
05/03/11O:$450
06/20/11O:$420
07/19/11O:$460
Rating and Price Target History for: Apple Inc. (AAPL) as of 08-04-2011
Created by BlueMatrix
CEVA Inc.
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2009 2010 2011
09/18/08NR:NA
06/21/11I:O:$34
Rating and Price Target History for: CEVA Inc. (CEVA) as of 08-04-2011
Created by BlueMatrix
All price targets displayed in the chart above are for a 12- to- 18-month period. Prior to March 30, 2004, Oppenheimer &
Co. Inc. used 6-, 12-, 12- to 18-, and 12- to 24-month price targets and ranges. For more information about target price
histories, please write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017, Attention: Equity Research
Department, Business Manager.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System as of January 14th, 2008:
Outperform(O) - Stock expected to outperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Perform (P) - Stock expected to perform in line with the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Underperform (U) - Stock expected to underperform the S&P 500 within the next 12-18 months.
Not Rated (NR) - Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. does not maintain coverage of the stock or is restricted from doing so due to a potential
conflict of interest.
Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. Rating System prior to January 14th, 2008:
Buy - anticipates appreciation of 10% or more within the next 12 months, and/or a total return of 10% including dividend payments,
and/or the ability of the shares to perform better than the leading stock market averages or stocks within its particular industry sector.
Neutral - anticipates that the shares will trade at or near their current price and generally in line with the leading market averages due to
a perceived absence of strong dynamics that would cause volatility either to the upside or downside, and/or will perform less well than
higher rated companies within its peer group. Our readers should be aware that when a rating change occurs to Neutral from Buy,
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Sell - anticipates that the shares will depreciate 10% or more in price within the next 12 months, due to fundamental weakness
perceived in the company or for valuation reasons, or are expected to perform significantly worse than equities within the peer group.
CEVA Inc.
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Distribution of Ratings/IB Services Firmwide
IB Serv/Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
OUTPERFORM [O] 319 54.50 140 43.89
PERFORM [P] 256 43.80 84 32.81
UNDERPERFORM [U] 10 1.70 2 20.00
Although the investment recommendations within the three-tiered, relative stock rating system utilized by Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. do not
correlate to buy, hold and sell recommendations, for the purposes of complying with FINRA rules, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. has assigned
buy ratings to securities rated Outperform, hold ratings to securities rated Perform, and sell ratings to securities rated Underperform.
Company Specific DisclosuresOppenheimer & Co. Inc. makes a market in the securities of BRCM, CEVA, QCOM, and AAPL.
Additional Information Available
Please log on to http://www.opco.com or write to Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., 300 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10017,
Attention: Equity Research Department, Business Manager.
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CEVA Inc.
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CEVA Inc.