stock porfolio advisory for today: buy stock of shakti pumps (india) ltd with price target of rs....

Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd : "Turnarround Counter" "BUY" 13th Mar 2014

The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE. In addition to submersible pumps, company also

producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company

introduced pumps working with solar power. In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net margin of

9-10%. Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in coming few year. Further, Company have

plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and European Union and in other growing countries in coming years. On valuation front shakti

pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company

available at single digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs .................................................................... ( Page : 2-4)

IEA-Equity

Strategy

13th Mar, 2014

Edition : 224

BANKBARODA "BUY" 11th Mar 2014

7th Mar 2014

The Supreme Court upheld the constitutional validity of the November 11, 2011 Union government notifications, directing implementation of

the recommendations of the Majithia Wage Boards for journalists and non-journalists of newspapers and news agencies. This judgment will

work as a dampener for newspaper industry as well as DB CORP. Companys EBITDA margin will be effected very negatively not only in FY15E

but also next few or more years. Therefore we downgrade DB CORP from `BUY to `NEUTRAL ........................................................................ (

Page : 24-25)

Dabur India Ltd: "Confident tone for growth" "BUY" 7th Mar 2014

Dabur expects volume growth at a range of 8-12% for FY15E led by innovation and effective distribution initiatives in chemist channels. If

discretionary demand from urban area improves, then volume growth in double digit would not be a surprise for street. Considering its expected

expressive volume growth than other peers, aggression on new launches through innovation and aggressive distribution reach energize our

positive stance on the stock. ............................................................. ( Page : 12-16)

CAN FIN HOME "BUY" 7th Mar 2014

We have initiated coverage with Buy rating on the stock with price target of Rs.220 which implies 1 times of FY14E book value. The company has

delivered strong performance all around. During quarter, profitability was up by 60% on the back of healthy NII growth and improvement in

operating leverage. Return ratio improved from 12% in FY12 to 18% in 3QFY14 which is expected to remain healthy on the back of improving

operating leverage and aggressive branch expansion. ................................................... ( Page :17-23)

DB CORP : "Waging war on Print media" "NEUTRAL"

Prestige Estates Projects: "Downgrade to Hold" "HOLD" 10th Mar 2014

The Prestige Estate has moved up form starting of CY12, peaked in May13, then went down gradulally. The stories behind the current price

diving are the concern of price war, staggered economics, and non softening of interest rates. However given the limited upside in counter in

near term, we revise our rating on PEPL to Hold with a revised price target of Rs. 190. Regarding the stock's future course, our Hold rating

indicates that we do not recommend additional investment in this stock despite its gains in the current period.

..................................................................................... ( Page : 10-11)

HCLTECH :"Retain confidence" "BUY" 12th Mar 2014

On performance front, it continues to be bullish on the rebid market and bullish on short-term to medium term, momentum on deals pipeline

also looking robust. Considering the increasing discretionary spends across the geographies like US and Europe, we expect healthy earnings

performance ahead. ...................................................................... ( Page :5-6 )

On fundamental wise, we are not very impressed with bank but in recent market rally, PSB as well as private banks participated more than any

sector likely due to outcome of exit poll for the coming election. We believe bank would rally more because of trading at lower side despite of

index is running at all time high. But with this fundamental Bank of Baroda would trade in range of Rs.635 to Rs.700 depending upon sentiment

as per our view. .................................................................... ( Page : 7-9)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

India Equity AnalyticsDaily Fundamental Report on Indian Equities

V- Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.

Key Points :

CMP 76

Target Price 105

NA

Upside 38%

0%

BSE Code 531431

NSE Symbol

116

13,645

Nifty 6,518

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 1.5 44.2 72.4

Rel. to Nifty (6.0) 31.5 57.8

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 45.0 44.9 44.9

FII 0.0 0.0 0.0

DII 9.9 10.5 10.5

Others 45.2 44.7 44.7

2

Company Profile

Shakti is a manufacturer of stainless steel submersible pumps and motors ranging from 0.5 HP to

255 HP used in domestic, industrial, irrigation, and fire-fighting and located at Pithampur

Madhya Pradesh. Company is the first five star rated pump manufacturer in India. In addition to

submersible pumps ,company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal pumps, Pressure

booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps. The company is mainly focused on the

export market and sup-plies its products to around 50 countries, such as US, UK, Turkey, Spain,

Netherlands, Germany, France, Italy, Australia, Sri Lanka, etc. Nearly 58 per cent of its revenues

are from exports. Of the balance 42 per cent of domestic revenues, 60 per cent come from

supply to farmers, 20 per cent from domestic demand, 12 per cent from government institutions,

and the balance 8 per cent from various industrial sectors.

Industry Structure and Development

The Indian pump industry is estimated to be Rs. 8000 crores in 2012-13. It is likely to grow at 8%

and expected to reach Rs. 18000 crores by 2017-18. The market demand is driven by

infrastructure based spending, urbanisation, growth in manufacturing activity, refurbishment &

upgradation and overall increase in the population, insufficient rains and falling water tables have

led to demand for improvement in hydraulics and pump efficiency. The rising cost of oil has

positively influenced the demand for energy conservative pumps and pumps driven by renewable

energy sources. There will be strong demand for pumps from developing countries like China and

India due to industrialisation and investment in water and power segments. The developed

nations propose to repair and upgrade their old water infrastructure. This will lead to good

replacement demand for pumps in developed countries.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Change from Previous

Previous Target Price

1 yr Forward P/B

Share Holding Pattern-%

Stock Performance-%

Market Data

Average Daily Volume

Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)

"Turnarround Counter..."

Buy

38/88

Company update

SHAKTIPUMP

The company was the first to get 5 star rating for energy efficiency for its products from BEE.

In addition to submersible pumps, company also producing Vertical Multistage Centrifugal

pumps, Pressure booster pumps, Open well pumps, End suction pumps etc. Recently company

introduced pumps working with solar power.

In next three years company incline to achieve sale revenue of Rs. 600 crore with the net

margin of 9-10%.

Company is planning to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 3 fold in

coming few year. Further, Company have plans to register our presence in all BRICS, G20 and

European Union and in other growing countries in coming years.

On valuation front shakti pump is available at a single digit PE and EV/EBIDTA of 5.6x/4.1x

and 4.7x/3.8x of its FY14E/15E estimates. In a volatile market, a company available at single

digit valuations certainly looks up for grabs.

Pledging of shares by promoters is the only reason for some concern.But ,since its financial

performance is improving quarter over quarter ,I dont expect much issues from this

angle.Moreover pledge is not with any NBFC but with one of its bankers - Axis Bank.

52wk Range H/L

"Buy"13th Mar' 14


3Outlook :

It is one of the fastest growing companies from this sector .From Rs.41 Cr sales in 2006 it reached

a top line of Rs.210 Cr in 2013. Its export thrust and improvement in Indias rural economy is

expected to drive further growth .Company is targeting a turnover of Rs.600 Cr in next three years.


Revenue Q-Q (In Crores)

(Source: Eastwind Research)

(Source: Eastwind Research)

Operating Profit Q-Q (In Crores)

To drive its domestic growth, Shakti has already strength-ened its marketing team and domestic

dealer network to 650 from 192 just two years back. Though this renewed focus should help

generate revenues for Shakti, the new product portfolio isnt a unique one and is already

manufactured across the country. Thus Shakti seems to be a late entrant in these products and

therefore one will have to wait and watch the kind of growth it posts in these segments. Besides,

there is a huge unorganised market on the domestic front which firstly eats into the market share

(according to the management, Shaktis market share is 3 per cent in the overall pump industry i.e.

includ-ing the unorganised market) and sec-ondly, it reduces the pricing power of the organised

players, thus impacting realisations and margins. However, Most Governments are insisting on the

use of Star-rated pumps wherever it is subsidising their purchase on account of higher energy

efficiency. With labour getting scare and expensive, there is a greater preference among

agriculturist to work with branded models that promise a higher uptime, circumventing the need

to invest in submersible pump extraction, repair or replacement. The result is that the market

share of the countrys unorganised sector has steadily declined from 95% to 80%; the performance

of the organised sector growth over the unorganised provides the industry optimism.

Valuation :

Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.

Reasons of laggard performance :

At current price of Rs. 75, the stock is trading at P/E of 5.5 x for FY14E and 5.0 x the FY15E.

Escorts could post EPS of Rs. 13.6 for FY14E and Rs. 18.7 for FY15E. Considering managements

aggressive expansion in production capacity and marketing network, I believe company can

deliver good growth in coming years. Further, we expect the company to benefit immensely from

the subdued steel prices currently. We expect the benefit to flow in for the next coming quarters

as well. We recommend a "Buyrating on stock with price target of Rs. 105

Having said that, there are reasons we believe this scrip may not perform as per the expectations

on the bourses. First and foremost, one should note that Shakti is in a business domain that has

low entry barriers and the products can be easily manufactured. Currently, Shakti manufactures

only steel sub-mersible pumps and though it positions itself as an energy-efficient pump

manufacturer, there are other players too who manufacture such energy-effi-cient pumps.

However, the company is increas-ing its product line by adding boost-er pumps, mono-block, and

open well pumps to its portfolio. Shakti is installing a new 65,000 unit per annum capacity for

booster pumps at a cost of Rs 35 crore, which is being funded through a combination of debt (Rs

25 crore) and internal accruals (Rs 10 crore). This expansion is expected to come on stream and

start generat-ing revenues in coming periods


4(Source: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore)


Shakti Pumps (India) Ltd.

Key financials :


PARTICULAR2011A

9M2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E

Performance

Revenue 135 192 209 270 338 422

Other Income 1 1 7 7 7 7

Total Income 136 193 215 277 344 429

EBITDA 25 31 30 41 51 63

EBIT 22 27 25 34 43 55

DEPRICIATION 3 4 5 7 7 8

INTREST COST 6 9 12 14 14 15

PBT 17 18 20 26 36 47

TAX 3 4 3 6 8 10

Reported PAT 13 14 17 21 28 37

Dividend 2 2 2 2 2 2

EPS 10.8 9.1 11.0 13.6 18.7 24.1

DPS 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3

Yeild %

EBITDA % 18.4% 16.0% 14.4% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0%

NPM % 9.9% 7.2% 7.8% 7.5% 8.3% 8.6%

Earning Yeild % 20.6% 19.5% 25.5% 18.0% 24.6% 31.8%

Dividend Yeild % 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

ROE % 20.5% 15.9% 15.5% 16.3% 18.5% 19.5%

ROCE% 9.2% 8.2% 8.8% 10.0% 12.2% 13.7%

Position

Net Worth 65 87 109 128 154 189

Total Debt 81 83 82 80 80 80

Capital Employed 147 170 191 208 234 269

No of Share 1 2 2 2 2 2

CMP 52 47 43 76 76 76

Valuation

Book Value 52.6 57.3 71.3 83.7 101.1 123.9

P/B 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6

Int/Coverage 3.6 2.9 2.1 2.4 3.1 3.6

P/E 4.9 5.1 3.9 5.6 4.1 3.1

HCLTECH

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 2.6 85.5 135

Rel. to Nifty -5 75.9 122.9

Current 1QFY14 4QFY13

Promoters 61.75 61.84 61.92

FII 28.05 26.01 24.45

DII 4.20 5.70 6.49

Others 6 6.45 7.14

2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 1QFY13 (YoY)-%

8184 7961 2.8 6273.8 30.4

2125 2093 1.5 1417 50.0

1495 1416 5.6 965 54.9

26.0% 26.3% (30bps) 22.6% 340bps

18.3% 17.8% 50bps 15.4% 290bps

5

Average Daily Volume 1193062


Nifty 6512

Financials

Stock Performance

1 year forward P/E

Rs, Crore

(Source: Company/Eastwind)


Looking for strategic partnership with CSC: HCLTech is looking an opportunity of strategic

partnership to transform clients services from legacy to cloud based technologies. As per

IT based Gartner survey, clients are looking to retire, replace, and revise 80-85% of their

applications over the next 2 years. The company expects to acquire and quantify of this

opportunity with CSC (Nasdaq-listed IT services firm Computer Sciences Corporation, CSC).

View and Valuation: HCL techs decent level of utilization, focused on cost control and

utilization of new market opportunities through vendors consolidation would provide a

new shape to the company in near future. On performance front, it continues to be bullish

on the rebid market and bullish on short-term to medium term, momentum on deals

pipeline also looking robust. Considering the increasing discretionary spends across the

geographies like US and Europe, we expect healthy earnings performance ahead. At a

CMP of Rs 1454, stock trades at 17.4x of FY14E earnings, We retain BUY on the stock and

revised our target price from Rs 1560 to Rs1650.

(4) Mobility: Mobility offering services from mobile application development and

integration to mobile application services, to fully managed mobility including

provisioning, hosting, and end-user support.

(5) Analytics: End-to-end life cycle of services including management and hosting of

customer assets, consolidation and migration services, virtualization and design and

management of green data centers.

Revenue

EBITDA

PAT

EBITDA Margin

PAT Margin

"Retain confidence"

CMP 1454

Target Price 1650

Company update

Visionary approach to changing market dynamics: Forward looking statement from the

desk of BoD (Given on annual report 12-13) reveals 5 major strategies to compete market

dynamics and company is focused for the same.

Previous Target Price 1560

Upside 13%

Buy Key takeaways from recent Investors Conference in Mumbai:

Trump Card on rebid Market: HCL Tech Management expressed its optimistic tone for

rebid opportunity with a deal of $45bn for negotiation in CY14E. Most of rebid would be

come from Infrastructures and traditional IT segments. Across the tier-1 IT space, HCL

Tech will be most beneficiary because of large exposures in Infrastructures space (36% of

sales).Change from Previous 5.8%

52wk Range H/L 1589/674


Market DataBSE Code 532281

NSE Symbol HCLTECH 5 major technological changes are expected to open up new opportunities for service

providers:

(2) Software-as-a-Service (SaaS): software that is owned, delivered and managed

remotely by one or more providers.

(3) Social Technologies: Technology that facilitates social interactions and is enabled by

a communications capability, such as the Internet or mobile device.

101643 (1) Smart Computing: Consulting Solution for next-generation IT infrastructure to

maximize workforce. The aggregation and management of Cloud services is executed

through HCL's proprietary MyCloud platform.

"BUY"12th Mar' 14


6HCLTECH

Healthy deal pipeline:During the quarter, HCL Tech reported an addition of 15 transformational deals in the US

and Europe for the December quarter. These wins have been in the momentum markets

of manufacturing and Financial Services as well as the emerging momentum markets of

life sciences & Healthcare and Public Services. Across the geographies, USA and Europe

remain best to drive deal wins during the quarter because of healthy scenario of demand

environment.



Financials;


Rs, Cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Net Sales-USD 2704.6 3545.3 4151.5 4686.5 5464.6 6484.1

Net Sales 12136.3 15730.3 20830.6 25581.1 32787.8 39229.0

Raw Materials Cost 443.6 522.1 612.0 959.3 983.6 1176.9

Employee Cost 6253.7 8589.6 11104.6 12574.2 16066.0 19418.3

Operation and other expenses 3498.5 4163.2 5418.8 6386.4 7213.3 8826.5

Total Expenses 10195.7 13274.9 17135.3 19919.9 24262.9 29421.7

EBITDA 1940.6 2455.4 3695.2 5661.2 8524.8 9807.2

Depreciation 418.1 459.7 549.2 636.8 742.5 881.0

Other Income 154.1 299.7 206.5 306.6 460.5 590.2

Extra Ordinery Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5 -491.8 78.5

EBIT 1522.5 1995.7 3146.0 5024.4 7782.3 8926.2

Interest Cost 204.1 142.6 142.6 105.6 79.2 59.4

PBT 1472.4 2152.8 3209.8 5269.9 7671.8 9535.5

Tax 213.4 488.5 782.7 1225.3 1841.2 2336.2

PAT 1259.0 1664.3 2427.1 4044.6 5830.5 7199.3

Growth-%

Sales-USD 24.1% 31.1% 17.1% 12.9% 16.6% 18.7%

Sales 18.6% 29.6% 32.4% 22.8% 28.2% 19.6%

EBITDA 5.9% 26.5% 50.5% 53.2% 50.6% 15.0%

PAT -4.6% 32.2% 45.8% 66.6% 44.2% 23.5%

Margin -%

EBITDA 16.0% 15.6% 17.7% 22.1% 26.0% 25.0%

EBIT 12.5% 12.7% 15.1% 19.6% 23.7% 22.8%

PAT 10.4% 10.6% 11.7% 15.8% 17.8% 18.4%

Expenses on Sales-%

Employee Cost 51.5% 54.6% 53.3% 49.2% 49.0% 49.5%

RM Cost 3.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0%

Operation and other expenses 28.8% 26.5% 26.0% 25.0% 22.0% 22.5%

Tax rate 14.5% 22.7% 24.4% 23.3% 24.0% 24.5%

Valuation

CMP 364.9 493.5 490.0 759.5 1454.0 1454.0

No of Share 67.9 68.9 69.3 69.6 69.6 69.6

NW 6288.8 7653.0 9837.9 13164.0 17854.4 23913.5

EPS 18.5 24.2 35.0 58.1 83.8 103.4

BVPS 92.6 111.1 141.9 189.1 256.5 343.5

RoE-% 20.0% 21.7% 24.7% 30.7% 32.7% 30.1%

Dividend Payout ratio 25.0% 31.5% 33.1% 20.0% 19.6% 15.8%

P/BV 3.9 4.4 3.5 4.0 5.7 4.2

P/E 19.7 20.4 14.0 13.1 17.4 14.1

BANKBARODA

651

700

624

8

12

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 16.6 -8.3 -8.3

Rel.to Nifty 8.7 -21.4 -21.4


3Promoters 55.4 55.4 55.4

FII 15.5 15.5 15.3

DII 19.6 19.6 19.0

Others 9.5 9.5 10.3

Financials Rs, Cr

2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

NII 8802 10317 11315 12218 14122

Total Income 11611 13739 14946 16400 18304

PPP 6982 8581 8999 9206 10067

Net Profit 4242 5007 4481 4444 4819

EPS 108.3 121.8 106.4 105.5 114.4

7

Result update ADD

Banks NII grew by 7.6% YoY largely due to healthy loan growth and sequentially

margin improvement of 5 bps. Margin improve came from domestic push from 2.85%

to 2.95 while international NIM remained stable at 1.18%. Cost of fund declined by

14 bps quarterly due to lower borrowings as a percentage of percentage of NDTL.

Advances grew by 18% YoY largely came from SME and retail sector which grew by

39% and 21% YoY respectively. Bank continued to be cautions while expanding its

exposure towards large corporate owing to economy recession. Deposits grew by

21.5% YoY, added by foreign currency non- resident deposits but CASA franchise

remained flat at 26%. So in CASA front we are not impressed and going forward cost

of fund is unlike to be soften in our view.

Market Data

Upside

773/429

BSE Code 532134

NSE Symbol BANKBARODA



Stock Performance

CMP

ANNUAL REPORT UPDATE

Target Price


Profit inflated due to lower provisions led by reversal of investment

depreciation

Advance growth led by SME and retail


At the current price of Rs.651/share stock is trading at 0.77 times of FY14E

book value which is now premium over its peer group. We value bank at the

range of Rs.634 to Rs.790 implying valuation multiple of 0.75 to 0.9 times of

one year forward book. But upper side of book value multiple would be

possible only if the improvement of asset quality along with improving sign of

fundamentals. But in its quarterly result, banks performance was muted all

around except healthy loan and deposits growth. CASA growth was remained

muted in compare to SBI and PNB. So cost of deposits is unlikely to soften in

near term while asset quality was deteriorated higher in percentage as

compare to PNB and SBI. In the following section we will discuss the

fundamental improvement of bank during quarter.

NII growth on the back of loan growth and margin expansion


BANKBARODA Vs Nifty


18.25 Cr

Nifty 6537

52wk Range H/L

21627

Provisions were lower by 11.5% YoY on account of reversal of investment

depreciation to the tune of Rs.120 cr offset additional provision towards non-

performing assets. But banks stress loan (slippage + Restructure) loans were

Rs.1275 cr which was almost in previous quarter. Lower provisions made 17% up

PBT but at operating profit level, it was down by 2.6% YoY. Tax rate was higher due

to creation of DTL as per advice by RBI.

View & Valuation

On fundamental wise, we are not very impressed with bank but in recent market rally,

PSB as well as private banks participated more than any sector likely due to

outcome of exit poll for the coming election. We believe bank would rally more

because of trading at lower side despite of index is running at all time high. But with

this fundamental Bank of Baroda would trade in range of Rs.625 to Rs.700

depending upon sentiment as per our view.

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

"ADD"11h March. 2014


8BANKBARODA

Source: Eastwind/Company



Quarterly Result (Rs Cr) 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr 3QFY14E

Interest/discount on advances / bills 7061 6832 6485 8.9 3.3 7173

Income on investments 2175 2220 1898 14.6 -2.0 2350

Interest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 245 281 403 -39.2 -12.8 397

Others 209 140 58 258.2 50.1 173

Total Interest Income 9691 9473 8845 9.6 2.3 10092

Others Income 932 974 841 10.9 -4.3 1102

Total Income 10623 10447 9686 9.7 1.7 11194

Interest Expended 6634 6579 6004 10.5 0.8 6792

NII 3057 2895 2841 7.6 5.6 3300

Other Income 932 974 841 10.9 -4.3 1102

Total Income 3989 3869 3681 8.4 3.1 4402

Employee 1056 1030 798 32.3 2.5 1189

Other Expenses 736 714 627 17.3 3.1 792

Operating Expenses 1792 1744 1426 25.7 2.7 1981

PPP( Rs Cr) 2197 2125 2256 -2.6 3.4 2421

Provisions 762 861 1029 -26.0 -11.5 897

Exceptional Items 16 16 12 25.0 0.0 0

PBT 1436 1264 1227 17.0 13.6 1524

Tax 372 80 203 83.7 364.7 457

Net Profit 1048 1168 1012 3.6 -10.3 1067

Balance Sheet Date( Rs Cr)

Equity Capital 423 423 412 2.5 0.0

Reserve & Surplus 35232 35127 30966 13.8 0.3

Net Worth 35654 35549 31379 13.6 0.3

Total Deposits 503772 484931 414733 21.5 3.9

Borrowings 29304 28558 27899 5.0 2.6

Other liabilities and provisions 18638 13995 14552 28.1 33.2

Total Liability 587368 563033 488563 20.2 4.3

Cash in hand 16742 15681 17147 -2.4 6.8

Cash and balances with RBI 87599 79980 58295 50.3 9.5

Total Investment 115210 111840 101848 13.1 3.0

Advances 352446 339855 299318 17.7 3.7

Fixed Assets 2562 2498 2399 6.8 2.6

Others Assets 12809 13179 9557 34.0 -2.8

Total Assets 587368 563033 488563 20.2 4.3

Asset Quality

GNPA( Rs Cr) 11926 10888 7321

NPA(Rs Cr) 6624 6316 3363

% GNPA 3.4 3.2 2.4

% NPA 1.9 1.9 1.1

% PCR (without technical writeoff) 44.5 42.0 54.1

9BANKBARODA




Income Statement 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015EInterest Income 21886 29674 35197 39065 45206

Interest Expense 13084 19357 23881 26847 31084

NII 8802 10317 11315 12218 14122

Change (%) 48.2 17.2 9.7 8.0 15.6

Non Interest Income 2809 3422 3631 4182 4182

Total Income 11611 13739 14946 16400 18304

Change (%) 32.8 18.3 8.8 9.7 11.6

Operating Expenses 4630 5159 5947 7194 8237

Pre Provision Profits 6982 8581 8999 9206 10067

Change (%) 41.5 22.9 4.9 2.3 9.4

Provisions 1331 2555 4168 3559 4043

PBT 5650 6026 4831 5647 6024

PAT 4242 5007 4481 4444 4819

Change (%) 38.7 18.0 -10.5 -0.8 8.4

Balance SheetDeposits( Rs Cr) 305439 384871 473883 521272 573399

Change (%) 27 26 23 10 10

of which CASA Dep 87589 103524 119981 135531 149084

Change (%) 23 18 16 13 10

Borrowings( Rs Cr) 22308 23573 26579 33273 36600

Investments( Rs Cr) 71261 83209 121394 122000 134200

Loans( Rs Cr) 228676 287377 328186 367568 404325

Change (%) 31 26 14 12 10

RatioAvg. Yield on loans 8.0 8.7 8.4 8.6 9.3

Avg. Yield on Investments 7.0 7.8 6.4 7.3 8

Avg. Cost of Deposit 4.3 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4

Avg. Cost of Borrowings 5.5 6.7 5.4 5.5 5.5

Valuation

Book Value 536 668 759 846 929

CMP 963 794 652 513 513

P/BV 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.61 0.6

V- Prestige Estates Projects Ltd.

Key Points

CMP 169

Target Price 190

165

Upside 12%

15%

BSE Code 533274

NSE Symbol

5,717

161,912

Nifty 6,401

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 15.6 0.4 0.4

Rel. to Nifty 9.3 (11.5) (12.2)

3QFY14 2QFY14 1QFY14

Promoters 75.0 75.0 75.0

FII 17.4 17.4 17.2

DII 6.3 6.3 6.1

Others 1.3 1.3 1.7

Valuation:

10




1 yr Forward P/B


Stock Performance-%

Market Data


The Prestige Estate has moved up form starting of CY12, peaked in May13, then went down

gradulally. The stories behind the current price diving are the concern of price war, staggered

economics, and non softening of interest rates. The heat wave in economy have affected

complete sector, this hurt the real estate companies' revenue and the revival which were

expected by us in previous year cannot be seen in the manner in which we expect.

Earlier in our 3QFY14 result update we had given a buy rating on stock when the price was

Rs. 145, with the next 5-6 month price target of Rs. 165. However seeing the current rally in

stock post 3QFY14 result and on back of guidance for FY14 at Rs. 4300 crore sales booking as

the management commentary on the result call regarding launches in Q3FY14 as well as

through the year remained extremely positive. However given the limited upside in counter in

near term, we revise our rating on PEPL to Hold with a revised price target of Rs. 190.

Regarding the stock's future course, our Hold rating indicates that we do not recommend

additional investment in this stock despite its gains in the current period.


52wk Range H/L

At the current CMP of Rs. 165, the stock is trading at a PE of 16.0x FY14E & 13.6x FY15E . The

company can post EPS of Rs. 10.3 & Rs. 12.1 in FY14E & FY15E and RoE of 11.3% & 12.0%.

Prestige Estates Projects said it sold 1,204 residential units and 0.026 million square feet (Mnsft)

of commercial space, aggregating to 2.075 Mnsft, amounting to Rs 1262 crore of sales in Q3

December 2013. Of the above, Prestige share is 904 units -1.55 Mnsft amounting to Rs 940.20

crore of sales, up by 24.69% from that of Q3 December 2012.In Q3 December 2012, the company

had sold 682 units aggregating 1.44 Mnsft of residential and commercial space, amounting to Rs

754 crore of sales - Prestige share. (Overall sales of 1.69 Mnsft of area amounting to Rs 873.90

crore). Collections rose 16.69% to Rs 592.30 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012

- Prestige share. (Overall collections for the Q3 December 2013 - Rs 713.30 crore). In Q3

December 2013, the company launched the first phase of its largest residential project- Prestige

Lakeside Habitat in Bangalore aggregating to 2.79 million square feet of total developable area.

The project is spread across 102 acres in area and consists of apartments and villas with total

developable area of 8.40 Mnsft.

Management Guidence FY14E

Company will exceed its presales guidance. Company has already done sales to the extent of Rs

1,200 crore plus and now it is just a question of production and these numbers getting

recognised because company need to touch the trigger of 30 percent to recognise these

numbers. During the year, company has made Rs 3,700 crore and guidance was Rs 4,300 crore.

On his outlook for the company's business, Prestige Estates Projects, says there is no slowdown

in the Bangalore market and aims to concentrate on the phase 2 and 3 of its Lakeside Habitat

project newt quarter

Result Highlights 3QFY14

"Downgrade to Hold..."

Hold

102/195

Result update

PRESTIGE

"Hold"10th Mar' 14


11


(Ammount in crore) (Source: Company/Eastwind)

Prestige Estates Projects Ltd.

Key financials :

(Source: Eastwind Research) (Figures in crore)


PARTICULAR 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E

Performance

Revenue 1543 1052 1948 2532 3038

Other Income 68 34 64 64 64

Total Income 1611 1086 2011 2595 3102

EBITDA 442 331 579 696 805

EBIT 381 270 511 621 722

DEPRICIATION 61 61 68 75 83

INTREST COST 123 119 149 163 163

PBT 326 185 426 522 623

TAX 91 63 131 161 199

Reported PAT 235 122 294 361 423

Dividend 39 39 39 39 39

EPS 7.2 3.7 8.4 10.3 12.1

DPS 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1

Yeild %

EBITDA % 28.6% 31.4% 29.7% 27.5% 26.5%

NPM % 14.6% 11.3% 14.6% 13.9% 13.7%

Earning Yeild % 5.7% 3.7% 5.2% 6.2% 7.3%

Dividend Yeild % 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

ROE % 11.1% 5.7% 10.7% 11.8% 12.0%

ROCE% 6.5% 3.0% 5.7% 6.6% 7.4%

Position

Net Worth 2114 2151 2743 3065 3531

Total Debt 1505 1864 2420 2420 2200

Capital Employed 3619 4015 5163 5485 5731

No of Share 33 33 35 35 35

CMP 125 100 163 165 165

Valuation

Book Value 64.4 65.6 78.4 87.6 100.9

P/B 1.9 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.6

Int/Coverage 3.1 2.3 3.4 3.8 4.4

P/E 17.5 26.8 19.4 16.0 13.6

Dabur India Ltd.

BUY

Expecting for bottomed up sign on volume growth:

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 0.3% 30% 33.9%

Rel. to Nifty -6.03% 19% 22.0%


Promoters 68.64 68.66 68.66 Aggression on expending distribution reach:

FII 19.94 20.71 20.4

DII 4.47 3.96 3.97

Others 6.95 6.7 7

View and Valuation:

3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

1904.28 1748.81 8.9 1635.98 16.4

297.59 329.24 (9.6) 274.51 8.4

243.5 249.83 (2.5) 209.87 16.0

15.6% 18.8% 220bps 16.8% 120bps

12.8% 14.3% 150bps 12.8% -

12

P/BV(x)-1year forward

Rs, Crore



Despite signs of weak discretionary demand and increased competitive intensity in the

market, Dabur India has reported comparatively better volume growth in its key

categories. On all operating parameters, its performance was satisfactory. Still,

management is cautious for margin ramp up due to high inflation in India.The strong momentum in relatively low competition in the core categories with

diversified portfolio, Dabur gets a better place than other peers and its rural distribution

expansion should boost sales volumes. We retain our Buy view on the stock with a

target price of Rs206. At a CMP of Rs 173 stock trades at 9x FY15E P/BV.

"Confident tone for growth"

Company update

CMP 173

Target Price 206

Analysis on recent management interview to media :

Dabur expects volume growth at a range of 8-12% for FY15E led by innovation and

effective distribution initiatives in chemist channels. If discretionary demand from urban

area improves, then volume growth in double digit would not be a surprise for street. Previous Target Price -

Upside 19%

Change from Previous - A mature segment like Hair Oil remains a concern because of competitive intensity,

likely to grow slower than healthcare and home segments.

Consistently, Dabur is aggresively working on innovation activities to launch new

product as well as product development activities. Recently new launches would come

to the people like Vatika Enriched Coconut Oil with hibiscus, Vatika Olive Enriched Hair

Oil.

Considering its expected expressive volume growth than other peers, aggression on new

launches through innovation and aggressive distribution reach energize our positive

stance on the stock.


52wk Range H/L 185/128

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

Post earning, management of the company expressed hypothetically its view regarding

bottoming out of urban demand. The management of other FMCG bellwether like Marico

had also stated that the trend of volume decline has bottomed out based on hypothesis.

Recent Consumer Confidence Index indicates some upward movement than previous

quarters. At a same point, recent softening in CPI and Food Inflation Index (graph on 3rd

page of this company's report) hint to improve consumer discretionary demand from rural

and urban area.

Market Data

BSE Code 500096

Stock Performance

Nifty 6401


NSE Symbol DABUR

30246

Dabur is working on chemist channel to drive growth of its health care and Personal care

portfolio, and they are planning to distribute personal products through this channel.

Dabur had direct coverage of 55,000 chemist stores, which has now increased to 75,000;

plans to take it to 125,000 by FY15E.

PAT Margin

Financials

Revenue

EBITDA

PAT

EBITDA Margin

"BUY"7th Mar' 14


Vatika hair oil

Honitus

13

Dabur India Ltd.


Segment-wise snapshot

Dabur New Launches:

Ratnaprash


Fem with no ammonia Odonil Variants


Vatika Shampoo


Segments Growth (YoY)-% Key takeaways (3QFY14)

Domestic Business 24%

-Launched Vatika Enriched Olive Hair Oil,

-Shampoo grew by 25%(YOY),

-Perfumed hair oils posted 8% YoY growth,

-Dabur Chyawanprash reported healthy growth with a range of 17-18% YoY,

-Launched premium health supplement Dabur Ratnaprash,

-Dabur Honey performing well on the back of higher demand,

-Toothpastes grew by 14% with premium offerings/added market share,

-Flattish growh in Red Toothpaste,

-Meswak on new packaging launched ,

-Honitus: Honey & Tulsi variant launched,

-Ethicals portfolio grew by 15.5% YoY,

-Hajmola performed well with positve response from Anadana variants,

-Recently launched Pudin Hara Lemon Fizz has received emense response,

-Odonil 1 Touch Freshener launched in South India,

-Odonil and Sanifresh performed well during the quarter,

-Gulabari performed well during the quarter,

-Launch of Fem Fairness Naturals with No Added Ammonia,

-Fem witnessed double digit growth led by good take from Bleaches,

-Real Fruit Juice reported double digit growth,

-Real in a new Diwali Gift packaging launched,

-Organic International Business grew by 29% with 14% constant

currency(CC) growth driven by strong growth in GCC, Egypt & Nigeria,

-Namaste business registered double digit growth in CC term,

6.9%Hair Care

17.7%

13.2%OTC & Ethicals

Digestives

16.0%Home Care

Health Supplements 19.5%

Oral Care 10.4%

Skin Care 13.4%

Foods 18.0%

International Business 26.0%

Ratnaprash

Odonil Variant

Beverage variants

Vatika Shampoo variant

Vatika hair oil

Fem portfolio with no ammonia

Pudin Hara Lemon Fizz

Vatika Hair Oi l with Hibiscus

OxyLi fe Men

Odoni l re-launched with 2x perfume content

Test launched Real Mi lk Shakes in Delhi and Punjab

Oxy life Aloe Vera Gel Bleach

Real Activ Drinking Yoghurts in mango and strawberry flavours

Hajmola Anardana

Super Babool + Salt Power

New Ethnic flavour "Kokam" under Real Burrst

Fem brand was introduced in Turkey

Odoni l Gel

Dabur's New Launches

3QFY14

Q2FY14

Q1FY14

4QFY13

Slowdown in Hair Oils segment remains for long term?

How chemist channel would play a role to opportune the gain of market share?

14

Dabur India Ltd.

Pace of innovation continues Vatika

Enriched Olive Hair Oil

launched during the quarter

Key Takeaways:

On 3QFY14, Hair Oils segment witnessed decline across categories. Marico reported only

2% YoY volume growth in parachute rigid packs and 8% YoY in value-added hair oils, Bajaj

Corp and Navratna oil clocked 1% YoY volume growth. While, Coconut oil segment

reported 3-4% YoY volume decline.

Importantly, Hair Oil segment is adversely impacted by high input cost pressure leading to

frequent price hike. We believe, slowdown in Hair Oil segments could be a short-term

jerk. Dabur management believes that there is some structural change in Coconut Hair Oil

because of consumption shifting from Coconut Hair Oil to Light Hair Oil. Dabur is carrying

small exposures in Coconut Oil; still there is room to report value and volume growth

because of support from new launches. Company is likely to be better placed with value-

added offerings Vatika enriched coconut oil with Hibiscus and Vatika Olive Enriched Hair

Oil.

We expect that the volume growth in Hair Oil segment has bottomed out and coming

quarter and next spell of growth would come largely from increasing per capita income.

Innovation combined with optimum pricing strategy to maintain market share will be

key growth driver of this category.

Considering the weak consumer sentiment in urban area, there was less opportunity to

invest in urban growth in the past 2 years. Now, as green shoots are visible and consumer

sentiment is improving, the company is beginning to invest in urban growth with Project

COREchemist outlet and range expansion. However, there could be a few quarters of

transitory period. As part of this project, Dabur has recruited 350 people in the front end

and will incur Rs15cr for the first phase.

Project COREs primary focus will be the health care portfolio(Chyawanprash, Honey,

Glucose), OTC products (Honitus, Lal Tel) and personal care portfolio which are more

relevant to the chemist channel than to general trade. At present, it increased its

coverage to 75000 from 55000-chemist store and, plans to take it to 125,000 by FY15E.

We expect that project CORE will be favorable to improve margin picture as well as

revenue builder.

Chemist Shope in India




21%

16% 16%

GCC EGYPT NIGERIA

15

Skin Care The company expects to see growth in mid-teens helped by the pickup in winter in Q4FY14.

For 3QFY14, The International Business (contributes around one third of consolidated

sales) grew by 26%. Organic business grew by 29% with 14% constant currency growth

rate led by strong performance in GCC, Egypt and Nigeria. The GCC business reported a

21% growth, while sales in Egypt and Nigeria both grew by 16%.

Bangladesh remains an important geography for the company, which was impacted by

political instability and economic uncertainty resulting in slow growth of 10% YoY. Dabur

has organized a strong team and product portfolio for this geography.

Dabur will expand its footprint only in adjacent geographies of its current markets like in

Iran, Iraq and Africa. It believes that Bangladesh and Pakistan together have the potential

to become Rs500cr market each over the long term.

IntlBusiness New Launches

Oral Care:

Key Growth Markets Q3FY14(%)

-Dabur does not believe that launching sensitive toothpaste now will drive growth of this portfolio as big

players are already present in this segment.


Dermoviva Face Wash

Fem Gold Hair Removal Cream

Dabur India Ltd.

Conference Call (Q3FY14 ): Key Facts at a glance

-Dabur expects to achieve volume growth in the range of 8-12% in FY15%E, and if urban growth revives,

volume growth could be in the range of double digit growth.Volume Growth

-Dabur expects to improve gross margin in FY15E, its inventory that includes the high cost raw materials

(increased due to high-cost petroleum derivatives) will exist until February 2014. Dabur expects gross margin to

improve by 100bps if the inflation scenario remains benign.

Margin Growth

Dermoviva Hand Wash(Source: Company)

International business

Hair Care -Dabur expects to maintain growth of high single-digit in this segment.

Health Care-Dabur expects that there is huge opportunities for growth in this segment and Project CORE will help to drive

growth for the same.

Pricing Growth

Innovation and new

launches

-The company expects to continue with the new launches and innovations, but spread over the year and not

cluttered in one quarter. Dabur could launch a range of summer products in beverages and health supplements.

Ad spend -Ad expenses to be maintain within the range of 13-15% at the consolidated level for FY15E.

-For 4QFY14E, price increase could be at a range of by 1-2% YoY. The company may hike prices by 4-5% in

FY15E and focus will be on pursuing an aggressive and profitable growth strategy.

Urban and Rural

Growth

-Its rural growth has been faster than urban growth since the past few quarters but now this gap has reduced.

Now, Dabur believes that growth will be driven by the urban areas, which is witnessing an uptick. The company

will be shifting its focus to the urban area, which will drive premiumization.


16



Dabur India Ltd.

Financials


Rs in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sales 3391.4 4104.5 5305.4 6178.9 7070.30 8203.32

RM Cost 811.0 1806.8 2278.8 2422.1 2757.42 3240.31

Purchases of stock-in-trade 750 252 509 599 742.38 820.33

WIP (10) (122) (103) (2) (71) (41)

Employee Cost 285 309 387 471 608.05 738.30

Ad Spend 493.5 534.6 659.5 837.0 996.91 1132.06

Other expenses 438.4 524.1 683.1 819.10 908.53 1066.43

Total expenses 2767.3 3304.8 4415.2 5146.6 5942.59 6956.42

EBITDA 624.1 799.7 890.2 1032.2 1127.71 1246.90

Depreciation and Amortisation 50.0 95.2 103.4 112.7 111.09 133.15

Other Income 39.4 32.2 57.4 92.0 141.41 164.07

EBIT 613.5 736.6 844.2 1011.5 1158.03 1277.82

Interest 12.3 29.1 53.8 58.9 54.69 51.95

PBT 601.2 707.5 790.4 952.6 1103.34 1225.87

Tax Exp 100.5 139.0 146.4 182.62 212.39 232.91

PAT 500.7 568.5 644.0 770.0 890.95 992.95

Volume 9.5% 10.5%

Pricing 4.5% 5.0%

Sales 20.9% 21.0% 29.3% 16.5% 14.4% 16.0%

EBITDA 33.9% 28.1% 11.3% 16.0% 9.3% 10.6%

PAT 28.1% 13.5% 13.3% 19.6% 15.7% 11.4%

RM Cost 23.9% 44.0% 43.0% 39.2% 39.0% 39.5%

Ad Spend 14.6% 13.0% 12.4% 13.5% 14.1% 13.8%

Employee Cost 8.4% 7.5% 7.3% 7.6% 8.6% 9.0%

Other expenses 12.9% 12.8% 12.9% 13.3% 12.9% 13.0%

Tax rate 16.7% 19.6% 18.5% 19.2% 19.3% 19.0%

EBITDA 18.4% 19.5% 16.8% 16.7% 16.0% 15.2%

EBIT 18.1% 17.9% 15.9% 16.4% 16.4% 15.6%

PAT 14.8% 13.9% 12.1% 12.5% 12.6% 12.1%

CMP 158.6 96.1 103.2 131 173.00 173.00

No of Share 86.8 174.1 174.2 174.3 174.30 174.30

NW 935.4 1391.1 1716.9 2124.38 2689.06 3335.36

EPS 5.8 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.11 5.70

BVPS 10.8 8.0 9.9 12.19 15.43 19.14

RoE-% 53.5% 40.9% 37.5% 36.2% 33.1% 29.8%

P/BV 14.7 12.0 10.5 10.75 11.21 9.04

P/E 27.5 29.4 27.9 29.7 33.84 30.37

Valuation:

Margin-%

Expenses on Sales-%

Growth-% (YoY)

189

220

-

16

-

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute 8.7 26.9 26.9

Rel.to Nifty 3.1 15.0 15.0


3Promoters 42.4 42.4 42.4

FII 0.6 0.6 0.6

DII 0.5 0.5 0.5

Others 56.5 56.5 56.5

Financials Rs, Cr

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E

NII 63 72 84 96 162

Total Income 71 77 91 110 162

PPP 54 60 68 74 114

Net Profit 39 42 44 54 80

EPS 19.1 20.5 21.4 26.4 39.3

17


CANFINHOME Vs Nifty


15.59 Lakh

Nifty 6401



Stock Performance

52wk Range H/L

Funding composition of the company continued to be rate MAA+ by ICRA indicating

high credit quality and carried low risk. The composition comprises 50% from NHB

and 45% from banks, altogether account for 95% of total funding while remaining

come from deposits. Average tenure of funding is 7-10 years due to its loan tenure

portfolio of 10-15 years. From year FY12 to FY13, source of funding composition

saw dramatically changed as share of NHB increased to 50% from previous year of

23% while loan from related party declined to 45% from 70% in FY12. The benefit

was also come at effect as blended borrowing cost came down to 9.2% in FY13 from

9.8% in FY12. At the end of 3QFY14, borrowing cost stood at 9.3% from 9.4% in last

quarter.

Funding compositions have high credit quality and carried low risk

CANFINHOME

Company UPDATE BUY

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

Loan book grew by 49.1% YoY led by strong disbursement in retail segment. The

companys exposure to non house loan was about 7% of total loan which grew from

Rs.138 cr in 3QFY13 to Rs.400 cr in 3QFY14. The company remains focus on

salaried segment which account about 90% of loans. Average ticket size loan is Rs.

16 lakhs. Concentration of individual loan segment declined to 92% of total loan

from 94% in March 2013 and this segment shifted towards non housing. Although

revenue contribution from this segment is very low but spread is relatively thicker

than housing segment.

CAN FIN HOME


389


Market Data

Upside

196/113

BSE Code 511196

NSE Symbol

CMP

Target Price

We have initiated coverage with Buy rating on the stock with price target of

Rs.220 which implies 1 times of FY14E book value. The company has

delivered strong performance all around. During quarter, profitability was up

by 60% on the back of healthy NII growth and improvement in operating

leverage. Return ratio improved from 12% in FY12 to 18% in 3QFY14 which is

expected to remain healthy on the back of improving operating leverage and

aggressive branch expansion.

Healthy NII growth on the back of robust loan growth

The companys NII grew by 39% YoY to Rs.40.2 Cr which came from impressive

loan growth of 49% YoY. Margin of the company was however declined by 13 bps

sequentially on account of higher cost of fund. Yield on loan remained same

sequentially which restricted NII growth below than previous quarter (49% YoY).

CanFin Home has about 16-17% of exposure in rural area where spread is lower.

From last two quarters, yield on loan remained same while cost of borrowing

increased by 10 bps which made margin lower sequentially.

Loan book continued to be healthy on account of higher non housing loan

growth

"BUY"7th March 2014


18

CAN FIN HOME

Source:Company/Eastwind


Aggressive branch expansion drives incremental business growth

The company has opened almost 40 branches from last two years and it became double

to 81 from 41 in March 2011. The company has planned to open 85 braches at the end

of FY14. The incremental business came from additional branches as we got evidence

from revenue growth. The company revenue was Rs.72 cr in FY11 which increased to

Rs.96 cr in FY13 and in 9MFY14, it reached to Rs.115 cr while cost to income ratio was

remained flat at 30% level. The company is planning to open other 25 branches by 2015

in north area which would cater for incremental loan growth outside of southern state.

Being presence in Bangalore would help to get benefit naturally in realty boom

The reality volume in Bangalore is higher than Mumbai, Pune and Delhi-NCR region

according to our real estate analyst as we got evidence from recent result publish. Can

Fin Homes 16% total branches are in Bangalore region, so it will be natural beneficiary of

this realty boom in Bangalore. At present 4 southern states constitute about 70% of loan

book.

Strong profit growth due to healthy NII growth and improvement in operating

leverage

During quarter, the company reported healthy net profit growth of 60% YoY on the back

of robust loan growth of 50% YoY and declined cost income which led by improvement in

operating leverage. With the improvement in operating leverage, the companys return

ratio ROE improved from 12.6% in FY12 to 18% in 3QFY14. As discuss above, the

company is more aggressive in branch expansion which would increase incremental

business and profitability and hence return ratio.

Asset quality continues to be healthy.

On asset quality front, the company continues to remain healthy with gross NPA level

came down to 0.3 during quarter from 1.6 in FY07. With the strong recovery and high

coverage ratio, net NPA level has been 0% since FY11. During quarter, Can Fins GNPA

was declined to 0.32% from 0.34% in previous quarter whereas net NPA level was at 0%

led by almost 100% provision provided by the company. Asset quality is expected to

remain healthy going forward on the back of strict lending practice and 90%+ exposure to

salaried personal where chances of slippage is relatively low.


19

CAN FIN HOME



About the company

Can Fin Homes Ltd was promoted in 1987 by Canara Bank in association with reputed

financial institutions including HDFC and UTI. Canara Bank holds 42.4% stake in CFHL.

Today, CFHL offers a range of products on housing, such as loans for home purchase,

home construction, home improvement/extension and site purchase as well as non-

housing finance. The company has 81 branches at present with a large presence in

South India.

Concern

Any sharp increase in the interest rate would discourage consumers to purchase home

and thus demand could be impacted. Around 45% of funding source come from banking

and any adverse regulation like hike of interest rate could impact borrowing cost. This

would impact companys NII, NIM and profitability.

View & Valuation

We have initiated coverage with Buy rating on the stock with price target of Rs.220 which

implies 1 times of FY14E book value. The company has delivered strong performance all

around. During quarter, profitability was up by 60% on the back of healthy NII growth and

improvement in operating leverage. Return ratio improved from 12% in FY12 to 18% in

3QFY14 which is expected to remain healthy on the back of improving operating leverage

and aggressive branch expansion.


20

CHART FOCUS

CAN FIN HOME




21

Valuation BaND

CAN FIN HOME




22

CAN FIN HOME




Quarterly Result 3QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr

Interest Earned 151.7 137.9 102.8 47.5 10.0

Interest Expenses 111.5 99.8 73.9 51.0 11.8

NII 40.2 38.1 29.0 38.7 5.4

Other Income 0.1 0.0 0.1 36.4 144.2

Total Income 40.3 38.2 29.0 38.7 5.5

Operating Expenses 11.4 12.4 11.3 1.3 -8.3

PPP 28.9 25.7 17.8 62.4 12.2

Provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0

PBT 28.9 25.7 17.8 62.4 12.2

Tax Expenses 8.5 7.0 5.1 66.1 22.0

PAT 20.3 18.7 12.6 60.9 8.6

Balance Sheet

Capital 20 20 20 0.0 0.0

Reserves and surplus 428 407 366 17.0 5.2

Net Worth 448 427 386 16.1 4.9

Borrowings 4817 4315 3144 53.2 11.6

TOTAL LIABILITIES 5265 4742 3530 49.2 11.0

Loans 5355 4864 3592 49.1 10.1

TOTAL ASSETS 5355 4864 3592 49.1 10.1

Spread Analysis

Yield On Advances 11.3 11.3 11.5

Cost of Borrowings 9.3 9.2 9.4

Spread 2.1 2.1 2.1

NIM 3.0 3.1 3.2

ROE% Break-Up

ROA 1.5 1.5 1.5

Total Assets/ Total Equity 12.2 11.6 10.3

ROE(%) 18.2 17.6 15.9

23

CAN FIN HOME

Financials & Assumption




PROFIT & LOSS ACCOUNT( Rs Cr) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014EInterest Earned 208 226 279 379 586

Interest Expenses 145 154 196 283 424

NII 63 72 84 96 162

Other Income 9 5 8 14 0

Total Income 71 77 91 110 162

Operating Expenses 17 17 23 36 48

PPP 54 60 68 74 114

Provisions -1 1 7 -1 0

PBT 55 58 61 75 114

Tax Expenses 16 16 17 21 34

PAT 39 42 44 54 80

BALANCE SHEET ITEMS( Rs Cr)

Net Worth 275 311 348 392 463

Borrowings 1865 1904 1982 3073 5309

Loans 2167 2250 2673 4012 6600

SPREAD ANALYSIS(%)

Yield On Advances 10.7 10.5 10.7 9.8 11.3

Cost of Borrowings 9.9 8.1 9.9 9.2 9.3

Spread 0.8 2.4 0.8 0.6 2.0

NIM 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.4 3.0

EFFICENCY RATIO(%)

Operating Expenses to Total Income ( CI Ratio) 24.4 22.3 25.2 32.8 30.0

NII to Loan fund 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.4 0.8

Loan to borrowings 116.2 118.2 134.8 130.6 111.2

VALUATION

Book Value(Rs) 134 152 170 191 226

P/B(x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

P/E(x) 4.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 4.8

DB CORP

1M 1yr YTD

Absolute -6 22 0

Rel. to Nifty -7.32 11.3 -0.002


Promoters 74.96 74.97 74.98

FII 17.73 16.46 14.66

DII 2.95 4.00 5.34

Others 4.36 4.57 5.02

Financials3QFY14 2QFY14 (QoQ)-% 3QFY13 (YoY)-%

Revenue 518.2 438 18.3 438.9 18.1

EBITDA 153.8 112.5 36.7 122.8 25.2

PAT 93.57 63.2 48.0 73.2 27.9

EBITDA Margin 29.7% 25.7% 400bps 28.0% 170bps

PAT Margin 18.1% 14.4% 370bps 16.7% 140bps

24

321.50/210

5521Mkt Capital (Rs Crores)


Nifty

3QFY14E Earning Performance:

Management Commentary:According to management, Company will maintain a pragmatic approach towards

operational controls and higher efficiency. DBCORP will continue to capitalize its

consumption potential of Tier 2 and 3 cities. And they are studying on marketing

strategies of niche brands in Tier 2 and 3 cities. Company is expected to launch its Bihar

edition on 19 Jan, 2014, and we expect to see some part of additional revenue from

Bihar edition by 4QFY14E and also expect to see breakeven in 3 to 4 years.

This judgment will work as a dampener for newspaper industry as well as DB CORP.

Companys EBITDA margin will be effected very negatively not only in FY15E but also

next few or more years. Therefore we downgrade DB CORP from `BUY to `NEUTRAL6261.65

Stock Performance During the quarter, company has seen 18.2% revenue growth from its advertisement,

14% from circulation and 25% from Radio business on YoY basis. Management

expressed its interest regarding inorganic expansion in near future to maintain its

healthy growth across all segments.


52wk Range H/L

Stock Performace with Nifty

Rs, Crore



View and Valuation:

In view of upcoming general election, we expect government ad spending to go up

substantially. Provision of TRAIs 12 minutes ad cap would provide revenue visibility to

print media players, being one of the largest players DB Corp will be strong beneficiary

in near future. But Considering latest update regarding directing implementation of

the recommendations of the Majithia Wage Boards for journalists and non-journalists

of newspapers and news agencies, earning visibility could not be promising. Wages

hike and payment of arrers will create huge burden to the profit and loss A/C of the

company as well as margin shape. And it may hamper company's plan for investing in

regional market in future because it needs internal cash flow. Therefore we are

downgrading this stock from`BUY' to `Neutral'.

This would create huge financial burden to a industry already facing problems of rising

raw material prices. One the other hand most of newspaper venturing into reginal

market in search for better sales volume and margin.

Previous Target Price 340

Upside -

Market DataBSE Code 533151

NSE Symbol DBCORP

Latest update Neutral

"Waging war on Print media"

The Supreme Court upheld the constitutional validity of the November 11, 2011 Union

government notifications, directing implementation of the recommendations of the

Majithia Wage Boards for journalists and non-journalists of newspapers and news

agencies.

This will act as a huge negative for newspaper industry. They have to pay all arrears up

to March 2014.It will be paid in four equal installments within one year from

November 11, 2011.

CMP 301

Target Price


"Neutral"7th March' 14


25

DB CORP

Revenue Geography-wise Revenue Segments



Financials;


Rs,cr FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Sales 1062.1 1265.18 1451.51 1592.32 1861.91 2176.94

RM Cost 327.87 383.91 508.04 544.54 623.74 740.16

WIP -0.0016 -0.06 -0.04 0.03 -1.86 -2.18

Employee Cost 131.81 184.56 242.93 279.5 307.21 380.97

Ad Spend 12.98 12.52 15.04 17.21 22.34 23.95

Other expenses 161.24 185.2 216.06 234.07 260.67 315.66

Total expenses 720.03 862.13 1105.03 1210.25 1371.5 1656.7

EBITDA 342.07 403.05 346.48 382.07 490.5 520.3

Depreciation and Amortisation 37.83 43.28 50.57 58.06 64.5 75.4

Other Income 11.15 14.18 24.02 21.34 27.9 28.3

EBIT 304.24 359.77 295.91 324.01 426.0 444.9

Interest 35.69 15.3 9.23 7.99 8.0 5.1

PBT 279.70 358.65 310.7 337.36 445.9 468.1

Tax Exp 105.72 99.97 98.32 113.18 156.1 163.8

PAT 173.98 258.68 212.38 224.18 289.8 304.3

Growth-% (YoY)

Sales 10.5% 19.1% 14.7% 9.7% 16.9% 16.9%

EBITDA 132.2% 17.8% -14.0% 10.3% 28.4% 6.1%

PAT 265.4% 48.7% -17.9% 5.6% 29.3% 5.0%

Expenses on Sales-%

RM Cost 30.9% 30.3% 35.0% 34.2% 32.0% 34.3%

Employee Cost 12.4% 14.6% 16.7% 17.6% 16.6% 17.0%

Ad Spend 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1%

Event Expenses 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0%

consumption of store & spare 4.8% 4.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2%

Distribution expenses 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9%

Other expenses 15.2% 14.6% 14.9% 14.7% 14.0% 14.5%

Tax rate 10.0% 7.9% 6.8% 7.1% 8.4% 7.5%

Margin-%

EBITDA 32.2% 31.9% 23.9% 24.0% 26.3% 23.9%

EBIT 28.6% 28.4% 20.4% 20.3% 22.9% 20.4%

PAT 16.4% 20.4% 14.6% 14.1% 15.6% 14.0%

Valuation:

CMP 239 246 219 212.1 301 301

No of Share 18 18 18 18.33 18.33 18.33

NW 649 829 927 1029 1180 1344

EPS 9.6 14.1 11.6 12.2 15.8 16.6

BVPS 36 45 51 56 64 73

RoE-% 27% 31% 23% 22% 25% 23%

P/BV 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.8 4.7 4.1

P/E 24.9 17.4 18.9 17.3 19.0 18.1

Narnolia Securities Ltd402, 4th floor 7/ 1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph

033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000

email: [email protected],

website : www.narnolia.com

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advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any

action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been

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redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly

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consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not

provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change

without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,

should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that

past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of

any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to

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