steps toward sustainability of bioenergyconferences.ict.illinois.edu/resinworkshop2011/invited...•...
TRANSCRIPT
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Virginia H. Dale Virginia H. Dale Center for BioEnergy SustainabilityCenter for BioEnergy SustainabilityOak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, Tennessee USAOak Ridge, Tennessee USA
Steps toward Sustainability of
Bioenergy
US Department of Energy
“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that can be counted should be counted.”
William Bruce Cameron
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Collaborators:Outstanding in field
of switchgrass
•• Allen C. McBrideAllen C. McBride•• Latha M. BaskaranLatha M. Baskaran•• Mark E. DowningMark E. Downing•• Laurence M. EatonLaurence M. Eaton•• Rebecca A. EfroymsonRebecca A. Efroymson•• Charles T. Garten Jr.Charles T. Garten Jr.•• Natalie GriffithsNatalie Griffiths•• Michael Hilliard Michael Hilliard •• Keith L. KlineKeith L. Kline•• Henrietta I. JagerHenrietta I. Jager•• Matt Langholtz Matt Langholtz
•• Paul LeibyPaul Leiby•• Richard MiddletonRichard Middleton•• Patrick J. MulhollandPatrick J. Mulholland•• Gbadebo OladosuGbadebo Oladosu•• Esther S. ParishEsther S. Parish•• Peter E. SchweizerPeter E. Schweizer•• Nagendra SinghNagendra Singh•• Alexandre SorokineAlexandre Sorokine•• Maggie StevensMaggie Stevens•• John M. StoreyJohn M. Storey•• Neil ThomasNeil Thomas
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Modeling (validated by farmer interviews) suggest that sustainability exists when farmers use• A diversity of perennial crops • No burning
and lead to• Greater carbon storage• Less deforestation• Greater habitat diversity• Farmers remaining on land > 10yrs
Sustainability :The capacity of an activity to continue while maintaining options for future generations.
Farmer in Rondônia, Brazil
Dale et al. 1994. Modeling effects of land management in the Brazilian settlement of Rondônia. Conservation Biology 8:196‐206.
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Sustainability Indicators
They should be • Useful
Policymakers Agronomists Producers
•Technically effectiveSensitive to stresses on systemAnticipatory: signify impending change Have known variability in response
•PracticalEasily measured Consider context of measureBroadly applicable Predict changes that can be averted by management actions
Dale and Beyeler. 2001. Challenges in the development and use of ecological indicators. Ecological Indicators 1: 3-10.
Any measurable quantity that provides information about long‐term impacts of human activities on the environment, society, or economy.
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Set of Indicators Should Apply to Entire Supply Chain
Feedstock production
Feedstock Logistics
Conversion Biofuel Distribution End use
Feedstock type
Land conditions
Land management
Processing
Storage
Fuel type Transport
Storage
Engine type
Blend conditions
Conversion process
Transport
Co‐products
Harvesting and collection
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Many Groups Working to Develop Indicators for Bioenergy Sustainability
• Some examples GBEP (Global Bioenergy Partnership) RSB (Roundtable on Sustainable Biofuels) CSBP (Council on Sustainable Biomass
Production)
• Concerns Too many indicators Measures that are too broad for
practical implementation
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Environmental Indicators of Bioenergy Feedstock Sustainability
Greenhouse gas emissions
Soil quality
Water quality and quantity
Air quality
Biological diversity
Productivity
McBride et al. 2011. Indicators to support environmental sustainability of bioenergy systems. Ecological Indicators 11(5) 1277‐
1289
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Categories of Sustainability IndicatorsEnvironment Indicator Units
Soil quality 1. Total organic carbon (TOC)
Mg/ha
2. Total nitrogen (N) Mg/ha
3. Extractable phosphorus (P)
Mg/ha
4. Bulk density g/cm3
Water quality and quantity
5. Nitrate concentration in streams (and export)
concentration: mg/L;export: kg/ha/yr
6. Total phosphorus (P) concentration in streams (and export)
concentration: mg/L;export: kg/ha/yr
7. Suspended sediment concentration in streams (and export)
concentration: mg/L;export: kg/ha/yr
8. Herbicide concentration in streams (and export)
concentration: mg/L;export: kg/ha/yr
9. storm flow L/s10. Minimum base flow L/s11. Consumptive water use (incorporates base flow)
feedstock production: m3/ha/day;biorefinery: m3/day
Environment Indicator UnitsGreenhouse gases
12. CO2 equivalent emissions (CO2 and N2O)
kgCeq/GJ
Biodiversity 13. Presence of taxa of special concern
Presence
14. Habitat area of taxa of special concern
ha
Air quality 15. Tropospheric ozone ppb
16. Carbon monoxide ppm
17. Total particulate matter less than 2.5μm diameter (PM2.5)
µg/m3
18. Total particulate matter less than 10μm diameter (PM10)
µg/m3
Productivity 19. Aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) / Yield
gC/m2/year
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Contexts for Environmental Indicators of Sustainability in the Biofuel Supply chain
Feedstock Production
Feedstock Type
Land Conditions
Management
Feedstock Logistics
Conversion to Biofuel
Biofuel Logistics
BiofuelEnd‐Uses
Processing
Harvesting & Collection
Storage
Transport
Fuel Type
Conversion Process
Co‐Products
Storage
Transport
Blend Conditions
Engine Type & Efficiency
Soil quality
Water quality and quantity
Greenhouse gases
Biodiversity
Air quality
Productivity
Legend
Efroymson et al. In review. Environmental indicators of biofuel sustainability: What about
context?
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Considering socioeconomic sustainability requires assuming several conditions exist
• Effective governance• Legal and regulatory protection
• Acceptable levels of welfare (food, health, safety)
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Socioeconomic Indicators
• Profitability• Employment • Welfare• External trade• Energy security• Natural resource accounting
• Social acceptability
ORNL report. In progress. Indicators to support socioeconomic sustainability of bioenergy systems.
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Where Categories of Sustainability Indicators Are Affected within the Supply Chain
ORNL report. In progress. Indicators to support socioeconomic sustainability of bioenergy systems.
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Adapting Indicator Set to a Particular Context
• Indicator set is a starting point for sake of efficiency and standardization– Particular systems may
require addition of other indicators
– Budget may require subtraction of some indicators
– Some indicators more important for different supply chain steps
• Protocols must be context‐specific
• Indicator suite should be considered as a whole
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Framework for Selecting Indicators
List of potential indicators• Environmental• Socioeconomic
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Testing the Indicator Suite
• Indicators should be tested in a variety of systems
• Context‐specific knowledge
• Paired watershed experiments are ideal
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Using an Optimization Model to Identify “Ideal” Sustainability Conditions
Spatial optimization model identifies where to locate plantings of bioenergy crops given feedstock goals
Considers farmer’s profit Water quality constraints
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http://blosm.ornl.govParish et al. 2011. Biofuels, Bioprod. Bioref.
Vonore Pilot-Scale Biorefinery
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Scenarios considered (to date)
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• Baseline: business as usual (no target)• Minimize nitrogen: used to determine whether nitrogen concentration levels of
≤1 mg/L could be achieved by planting the target tonnage of switchgrass throughout the study area
• Minimize phosphorus: used to determine whether phosphorus concentration levels of ≤ 0.1 mg/L could be achieved by planting the target tonnage
• Minimize sediment: examined the possibility of achieving sediment concentrations of ≤50 mg/L through planting the target tonnage
• Maximize profit: solved for the greatest net returns achievable• Balanced: All three water quality goals and economic profit were equally weighted
• But this solution changed such a large proportion of agricultural land (compared to hay/pasture land) to switchgrass that an additional limit of less than 25% conversion of agricultural land was also run.
• Targets based on potential thresholds of stream eutrophication that resulted from these nutrients (Dodds 2007).• Model run to identify maximum achievable target in the Lower Little Tennessee watershed and then optimizations are compared to target
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Projections of Potential Achievable for Each Objective
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
100.0%
Max N Reduction
Max P Reduction
Max Sed Reduction
Max Profit Equal Weighting
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Current use and projected conversion under the “Balanced” scenario
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•Existing Agricultural and Hay/Pasture lands in the Lower Little Tennessee watershed
•Locations of switchgrass plantings recommended by BLOSM’s ‘Balanced’ Scenario
•Currently there are 13,683 acres of agricultural land and 84,265 acres of hay/pasture land in this watershed.
•The total land area recommended for switchgrass is 1.3% of the total watershed area (8,527acres out of 674,000 acres).
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Projected sediment concentrations under 6 BLOSM scenarios
•20
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Landscape Perspective
Consider indicators within entire system (interactions and feedbacks) as an opportunity to design landscapes that add value.
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Ways to improve estimates of LUC:1. Representation of policy in model specifications2. Economic decision‐making assumptions 3. Conceptual framework for drivers of initial conversion4. Land supply & management specifications5. Assumed land use dynamics (scenarios, baseline choice)6. Modeling yield change 7. Issues of time, scale8. Fire & other disturbances9. Correlation versus causation10. Many, many data issues to resolve
– See IEA Joint Task 38‐40‐43 presentation on LUC –http://ieabioenergy‐task38.org/workshops/campinas2011/
What are effects of bioenergy policy on land?
It depends
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Threats to forests: local governance (policy, corruption, poverty, insecurity), fire and pests…
Solutions:– Rural livelihoods*– Land tenure – Improve governance,
local participation and capacity, enforcement
– Land-use plans, soilmanagement, productive uses to reduce fire*
– Inventory & protect key conservation areas*
Source: Kline, 2008 California Biomass Collaborative., based on USAID-FAA Sec. 118/119 Reports for 2000-2008. FAO 2010c. See FAO forest management and conservation best practices: http://www.fao.org/bestpractices/content/05/05_02_en.htm
*Bioenergy policy could help
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Sustainability
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15 regional & local studies in the Brazilian Amazon suggest deforestation results from :• Regional economic opportunities •Transportation infrastructure• Political & social forces • Environmental & social conditions
Farm family in Rondônia, Brazil
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Ongoing Land-Use Changes
Initial Change Drivers(cultural, technical, biophysical, political, economic, demographic)
Subsequent ChangeDrivers
Land cover(typically measured by remote sensing methods at
one place and time)
Global Economic ModelsDemand
Prices, Quantities, and Distribution of Goods
Carbon Stocks
Key Filter:
Initial Land-Use Change
Source: CBES 2010 http://www.ornl.gov/sci/besd/cbes/
Filters: private land, rents
Depiction of Land Changes
Filters: LC data, scale, sources
Filters: LC, carbon, change data
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Putting global land factors into perspective
• Currently models • Define land assets by “rents”• Assume land is fully & optimally used• Incorporate biofuel policy as a ”shock”
Ag land available (previously cleared and underused) = 1500 M ha (but may be 5000 M ha) Global area burned each year = 380 M haArea converted to developed/urban use
Bioenergy use: too small to visualize
From Agrawal et al., 2008, Science 320(based on FAO data)
Based on FAO 2007
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Area (m
illions of h
ectares)
Graphic based on data from the USDA (2009)‐ NRI[Dale et al. (2011). Ecological Applications 21(4):1039‐1054.]
What are Implications of actual (not modeled) LUC trends?
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Policy Opportunities to Move Forward
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Managed by UT-Battellefor the Department of Energy
http://www.ornl.gov/sci/besd/cbes
Thank you!