stephen p. mattingly associate professor department of civil engineering university of texas at...
TRANSCRIPT
• What is High Speed Rail?
• Current Status of High Speed Rail in Texas
• Texas vs. Other Established Systems
• A Unique Opportunity
• Issues to Resolve/Address
• What Does High Speed Rail Really Mean for Texas?
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Overview
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
Background
U.S. DOT: “Rail service that is time-competitive with air and/or auto for travel markets in the approximate range of 100 to 500 miles.”
European Union: Minimum Operating Speeds
• 120 mph – Existing Rail Lines• 160 mph – New HSRs
Definition of High Speed Rail (HSR):
HSR Lines Scenarios
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Japan
Early efforts : 1964 Japan: HSR line Toyko to Shin-Osaka
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Europe
Early efforts : 1977 Italy: HSR line Rome – Florence
High Speed Train (HST) “Pendolino” operated at speeds up to 155 mph
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Europe
1981 France – HSR line Paris – LyonHST Train à Grand Vitesse (TGV) operated at speeds up to 160 mph
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
• Intended for regional (intercity trips)– Not intra-region (cannot maintain maximum speed for long
periods before needing to brake)– Typically, 100-500 mile trips– Example: Houston – Atlanta, ~ 790 miles,
• 2 hours by air• Over 4 hours at maximum HSR speed with no stops
• May be subsidized or funded by the government• Passengers pay by the person-trip (fare) rather than vehicle• Version of public transport even if operated by private firm or
concession– Similar to air– Dissimilar to auto
• Outcome: HSR competes with air in limited niche – Limited SOV vehicles– Minimum fare Washington DC to Philadelphia, $111
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
What Role Does High Speed Rail Serve?
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor
2000 USA – The Northeast Corridor
Acela Express HSTMaximum Operating Speed150 mphAverage Operating Speed72 – 125 mph
HSR length 450 miles
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in USA: The Northeast Corridor
The impact of the Acela Express on airlinesAir/HSR Market Share Analysis
RouteDistance (miles)
Air/HSR market share
for Acela Express
Acela Express Travel time
(h:min)
NYC – Washington DC 230 65% 2:45
NYC – Boston 225 52% 3:30
Boston – Philadelphia 320 18% 4:56
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in USA – The Future
The Proposed HSR Lines in the USA
•South Central, San Antonio – DFW –
Tulsa/Little Rock
•Gulf Coast: Houston – New Orleans –
Southeast (Atlanta & eastern seaboard)
•California Corridors,
•Florida: Tampa – Orlando – Miami,
•Northeast Region,
•Chicago Hub: Detroit – Chicago,
Kansas City – St. Louis – Chicago
•Southeast,
•Pacific Northwest
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
• Many Competing Voices– Texas High Speed Rail Corporation (Texas T-
bone)– Texas Oklahoma Passenger Rail Study (TOPRS)
• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)
• Regional Issues:– NCTCOG– Commission for High-Speed Rail in the
Dallas/Fort Worth Region– Tarrant vs. Dallas County
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
• Texas Central Railway (Houston to Dallas line)– FRA and TxDOT Lead agencies for EIS– Downtown Dallas station– No public money– Subsidiary of Japan Central Railway
• Regional Issues:– HSR in Tarrant County– Station in Arlington near entertainment district– Coordination and consideration of complete
transportation system– How to fund?
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
Existing HSR Systems’ Experience: HSR Stations Near Downtown
• Access: Transportation– Bus– Rail (urban and commuter)
• Access: Activities(dense urban cores)– Businesses (high value business in core)– Entertainment (most in core)– Urban housing (high value property)
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
Texas/American Experience
• Access: Transportation– Bus– Rail (urban and commuter)– Automobile
• Access: Activities(dispersed)– Businesses (multiple centers)– Entertainment– Housing (suburban)
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Current Status
From / To Austin College Station Dallas Fort Worth Galveston Houston Laredo San Antonio WacoAustin - 1:28 1:37 1:35 2:33 2:13 1:52 0:30 0:46
- 1:07 1:10 1:08 1:49 1:34 1:22 0:21 0:33College Station 1:29 - 1:34 1:31 1:04 0:45 3:21 1:59 0:43
1:03 - 1:06 1:04 0:47 0:32 2:26 1:25 0:30Dallas 1:37 1:33 - 0:19 2:02 1:43 3:30 2:08 0:51
1:10 1:05 - 0:13 1:33 1:18 2:33 1:32 0:36Fort Worth 1:35 1:30 0:21 - 2:16 1:56 3:27 2:05 0:48
1:08 1:03 0:15 - 1:42 1:27 2:31 1:30 0:34Galveston 2:36 1:05 2:05 2:18 - 0:22 4:28 3:06 1:49
1:50 0:47 1:33 1:41 - 0:15 3:12 2:12 1:16Houston 2:13 0:43 1:44 1:55 0:19 - 4:05 2:43 1:27
1:34 0:32 1:18 1:35 0:15 - 2:57 1:56 1:01Laredo 1:52 3:20 3:30 3:27 4:25 4:05 - 0:30 2:38
1:22 2:25 2:33 2:31 3:12 2:57 - 1:00 1:56San Antonio 0:30 1:58 2:08 2:05 3:03 2:43 0:30 - 1:16
0:21 1:24 1:32 1:30 2:11 1:56 1:00 - 0:55Waco 0:46 0:42 0:51 0:48 1:46 1:27 2:38 1:16 -
0:33 0:29 0:36 0:34 1:16 1:01 1:56 0:55 -
Travel Time in HH:MM for Wheel Rail (186mph) and Maglev (186mph)
Note: •Travel Times do not include station dwell times•Any origin to destination service does not have intermediate stops
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV
Today, France has approximately 1,000 miles of HSR lines
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Europe – Case Study: The TGV
The impact of the TGV on airlines in FranceAir/HSR Market Share Analysis
RouteTGV
Market ShareJourney Time
(hours)
Paris-Lyon 91% 1:55
Paris-Nantes 89% 2:00
Paris-Bordeaux 62% 3:00
Lyon-Lille 60% 3:00
Paris-Marseille 60% 3:10
Route typeTGV
Market Share
Journey Time ≤ 2 hours 90%
Journey Time ≥ 2 hours 60%
Total on domestic routes 81%
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership
• Based on international and US(Acela Express) experience – HSIPR can get 80% - 90% of the Air/HSIPR
market share when travel time is up to 2 hours– HSIPR can get 50% - 80% of the Air/HSIPR
market share when travel time is up to 3.5 hours– As the service is introduced, the HSIPR can
expect to capture between 60 and 85 percent of existing airline ridership after five years of operation
• The ridership becomes sensitive to the location of the station
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
HSR in Texas: Potential Ridership
Ridership (Passengers/Year)
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
• Access = Economic Opportunity
• Regional air profitability is limited
• Rail replaces regional air service and creates economic and development opportunities outside the major urban areas
• Integrated transportation system
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
European Experience: HSR Stations Near Airports • Airlines are offering combined air and rail ticketing
• Rail passengers have expedited check in to airport terminals
• HSR Airport to Airport Connections
Source: Raileurope.com
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
AIRail Station Frankfurt Airport
Terminal 1 Airport AIRail HSR Station
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
A Unique Opportunity
• Ticketing Benefits – Some airlines like Lufthansa and Air France offer
online booking for combined flight and HSR train • Access to destinations beyond the arrival airport.
• Other Benefits: – Replace air trips
• Lower environmental impact• Similar safety
– New stations = economic development – Access to smaller urban areas (Waco, College
Station, Temple/Belton)• Less frequent service• Each stop adds dwell time and lost time
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Texas – The Future
The Texas HSR and Higher Speed Rail Network and Airlines:A Cooperative Approach
On short-haul routes, the HSR may be a substitute for “feeder” flights operated by regional airlines
Cooperation agreements between HSR operator and airlines may produce benefits for:
Major Airlines
• Dismiss less profitable routes,• Maintain an extensive regional network
HSR Operator
• Increase ridership and revenues
Passengers
• Relatively convenient service,• Cheaper fares for business journeys
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Revisiting High Speed Railways in the USA. MassiddaS. Mattingly
HSR in Texas – The Future
New Strategies to Establish a Cooperative ApproachBetween HSRs and Airlines
HSR as part of the overall wider transportation network – that includes airports and airlines
An integrated HSR – Airlines system would:• Improve performance• Provide passengers with better service• Increase HSR ridership and revenues• Reduce expenses or losses for airlines
Operating strategies:• Code sharing on select HSR routes• Potential integration of airlines check-in and baggage handling at HSR stations • Airlines operating HSTs to diversify investments
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Challenges
• Optimal placement of rail stations a challenge– Placement of near other transportation modes
provide access– Population catchment– Activity catchment
• Urban mileage expensive• Activities are dispersed• Possible land use issues• Integration with existing transportation
system (i.e. access)• No funding for Dallas – Arlington – Fort Worth
extension
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
Challenges
• Profitability– HSR is the most “profitable” type of rail. The
TGV high speed rail of France has a 1.3 billion dollar annual profit. (LesEchols.fr, Renaud Honore, 2011)
– The AMTRAK Acela Express • only operationally “profitable” line• 45% profit margin (Brookings Institute, 2013)
– Does not include debt so may be lower (Brookings Institute, 2013)
– Most HSR is at least capital subsidized• Same as other modes• Not perceived the same
• Texas is different than the East Coast and Europe– Population– Activities
• HSR not a solution for urban congestion – May compete with new managed lane on I-30– Managed lane SOV toll vs. fare– May void a concessionaire agreement
• Continuing rural interstate highway congestion
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?
• Economic development opportunities near stations
• New transportation system challenges near stations to provide an adequate and integrated system
• Not the “public transit” answer to intercity travel due to high cost
• A political solution to extending HSR beyond Texas Central Rail initial investment– Public money spent on expensive to construct
track– Winners and missed opportunities
High Speed Rail Viability in TexasS. Mattingly w/Larsen, Madanu and Massidda
What Does HSR Really Mean for Texas?