stemming the tide: global sea level change and...
TRANSCRIPT
Stemming the Tide: Global Sea Level Change and
Local Impacts in South Carolina
Liz Fly, Ph.D. Coastal Climate Extension Specialist
What is climate extension? • Informing, educating about climate variability
& change – Interpreting different “languages” – De-politicizing scientific issues
• Providing tailored, decision-relevant climate information – Aligning different stakeholders’ priorities – Facilitating scientist-stakeholder collaboration
Who do I work for?
State Agency Mission: Generate and provide
science-based information to enhance the practical use and conservation of coastal and marine resources that fosters a sustainable economy and environment.
NOAA-funded program at University of South Carolina
Mission: Integrate climate
science and resource management in the Carolinas, in the focus areas of water resources, coasts, and public health.
Agenda
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Sea Level Rise 101 • Terminology • Causes of
• Global SLR • Local SLR
• Projections
Impacts in South Carolina • Coastal Flooding • Storm Surge • Saltwater Intrusion • Land Loss
Potential Adaptation Strategies
What’s the big deal?
Source: USGS
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Florida during Ice Age Florida during interglacial warm period
Source: USGS
Sea level 23-26 ft higher than today
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Sea level up to 120 ft lower than today
What’s the big deal?
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Sea Level Terminology
Source: NOAA Ocean Service Source: Bright Hub http://www.brighthub.com
1. Global mean sea level
2. Local (relative) mean sea level
3. Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Global Sea Level Rise - Tide gauge data (from 1880’s)
- Satellite data (from 1992)
1900-1992: 0.07in/yr 1992-2013: 0.13 in/yr
What drives global sea level change?
Source: 2014 National Climate Assessment
Heat
Thermal Expansion
Melt
Melt
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Wide range of future SLR projections due to uncertainty of ice melt
NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
What drives local sea level change?
Land Rising
Land Sinking
Land Rising
Air Currents
Global sea level change
Land movement
Wind-driven tidal patters
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Local trends NOAA Tide Station 8665530: Charleston Harbor, SC
Location of Charleston, SC, tide station in Charleston Harbor.
0.12 in/yr
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
(after Parris et al. 2012)
Projections
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Impacts of Sea Level Rise
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Coastal Flooding
• Extreme tides are common. • Likelihood of at least one tide above MHHW in given year
• ~1.8 ft – 99% • ~2.2 ft – 50% • ~2.7 ft – 10% • ~3.5 ft – 1%
Monthly highest tides measured at Fort Pulaski, GA, tide station, measured in feet above MHHW.
Coastal Flooding
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Pawleys Island Photo credit: Ryan Fabbri
Beaufort Photo credit: Megan Gregoire
Charleston – Northbridge Park Photo credit: Sean Bath
Charleston – East Bay St. Photo credit: Liz Fly
Charleston – 17 and 61 Photo credit: Sean Bath
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Storm Surge
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Saltwater Intrusion
Upriver intrusion
Groundwater intrusion
Public Health Concerns
Ecosystem Impacts
Groundwater contamination
Drinking water contamination
Saltwater
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Saltwater Intrusion Public Health
Concerns Ecosystem
Impacts
Blue Crab Migration During Periods of Drought Conditions
Normal Rainfall Conditions (Salinity 5 - 15 ppt)
Drought Conditions (Salinity 5 - 15 ppt)
8,100 ACRES
22,000 ACRES
ASHLEY
RIVER
STONO
RIVER
CHARLESTON
JOHNS ISLAND
COOP
ER
RIVER
Wetlands
Upland
Normal Rainfall Conditions (Salinity 5-15 ppt)
Blue Crab Migration During Periods of Drought Conditions
Drought Conditions (Salinity 5-15 ppt)
Wetlands
Uplands 8,100 acres
22,000 acres
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Saltwater Intrusion Public Health
Concerns Ecosystem
Impacts
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Land Loss Coastal Erosion Marsh
Inundation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Land Loss Coastal Erosion Marsh
Inundation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Land Loss Coastal Erosion Marsh
Inundation
Land Loss Coastal Erosion Marsh
Inundation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Land Loss Coastal Erosion Marsh
Inundation
Potential Adaptation Strategies
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
MITIGATION ADAPTATION
Actions taken to reduce the magnitude of
climate change itself
Actions taken to limit our vulnerability to climate change
impacts through various measures, while not
necessarily dealing with the underlying cause of those
impacts
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Facilitate a dialogue on how to balance public and private interests and responsibilities.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Develop and implement a public education campaign. Provide disclosure and disclaimer notice to purchasers of high risk properties.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Incorporate future sea level rise into emergency management plans.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Preserve and restore ecosystems and species. Develop affordable housing in safer areas.
Limit development in high risk areas. Revise building codes to higher standards and incentivize better design.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Prioritize, elevate, and protect low-lying roads and causeways.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Use low impact development principles.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation
Address the impacts on disadvantaged social groups, values, and symbolic places.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Miscellaneous
Coordination, Cooperation, and Collaboration
Education & Information
Emergency Management
Land Management
Research & Monitoring
Transportation Adaptation
Water Management
Social Adaptation Increase Community Rating System scores.
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Frank Nutter calls for a long-term investment in mitigating losses, better land use planning, better building codes, the greater use of green infrastructure to protect properties and a change in philosophy in government. --LinkTV
SLR 101 SLR Impacts SLR Adaptation
Liz Fly, Ph.D. [email protected]
S.C. Sea Grant Consortium: www.scseagrant.org Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments: www.cisa.sc.edu
Questions?