stefanie kerns, assistant director dr. mary lou d’allegro, senior … · 2020-02-14 · stefanie...
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Stefanie Kerns, Assistant DirectorDr. Mary Lou D’Allegro, Senior Director
The Pennsylvania State University – Berks College Planning, Research & Assessment
Share results of a “data mining” project regardingfirst generation studentsg
Share methodology used in the study, ti l lparticularly:
◦ Variable Construction◦ Exploratory Analysis◦ Inferential statistics used◦ Regression Models
Demonstrate that almost any sub-cohort can be studied in a similar context
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Relationships between parents’ educational level d ll & fiand some pre-college & first year success
indicators were investigated.
The relationships between parents’ educational level and some pre-college & first year success i di CLEARLY liindicators are CLEARLY not linear.
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Student Success indicators◦ First semester
Credits attempted Credits earnedGPA
◦ First yeard dCredits earned
Cumulative GPA◦ One-year retention
d◦ Six-year graduation
Pre college variables ◦ SAT: MathematicsSAT: Mathematics◦ SAT: Critical Reading
College variablesD l d M j i Fi S◦ Declared Major in First Semester
◦ Declared STEM Major in First Semester4
• Study included– Literature review (ex. what variables should be included?
What has been done before?)
– Variable construction (ex. 10 values 4 values)( )– Variable transformation (ex. alpha numeric)– Definitions (ex. first generation students)
– Exploratory analyses (ex. means, counts, frequencies among first gen/non-first gen)
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• Study included– Inferential statistics– T-tests (ex. first gen vs. non-first gen, missing vs. non-missing)– ANOVAs (ex. across parent education levels)
– Predictive Models (ex. Ordinary Least Squares & Logistic regressions, 28 models, 3 Types of IVs x 7 DVs)28 models, 3 Types of IVs x 7 DVs)
Model
1st Sem Credits
Attempted
1st Sem Credits Earned
1st Sem
GPA
1st year Credits Earned
1st year GPA
1 year Retention
6 year Graduationp
Demographic IVs ONLY
⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧
Pre-College IV ONLY
⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧IVs ONLY
College IVs ONLY (major, STEM)
⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧
Overall (All the above)
⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧ ⌧
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Literature review suggests first generation students are not asfirst generation students are not as successful as non-first generation students
However, previously published studies rarely discern among:◦ Different levels of parent educational obtainment ◦ Differences among institutions regarding selectivity
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Penn State Berks is a public college campus of The Pennsylvania State U i itUniversity
PSU Berks is 1of 5 PSU collegePSU Berks is 1of 5 PSU college campuses (24 campuses at PSU) that confers degrees◦ 8 Associate◦ 8 Associate◦ 14 Baccalaureate
2000 Carnegie Classification: Baccalaureate-Arts & Sciences
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F ll 2008 ll ll t 2 800Fall 2008 overall enrollment – 2,80022% of ALL PSU Berks students are STEM majors
Fall 2008 new baccalaureate degree-seeking freshmen – 92632.1% of PSU Berks new students are STEM majors
Fall 2000-2007 (study)29.2% of PSU Berks new students are STEM majorsj
Fall 2000-2007: Combined SAT – 1,003Fall 2007, average SAT- 989 Fall 2008, average SAT- 983 (less selective institution)(less selective institution)
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• 1.) Is the success of first generation students different from non first generation students atdifferent from non-first generation students at less selective institutions with respect to pre-
college and student success indicators?
• 2.) What is the relationship between pre-college and college student success indicators and parent level of education?level of education?
• 3.) Do students who have not reported the d l l l f h deducational level of their parents or guardians
fare as well as those students who do identify parent education level?
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• Population: New baccalaureate degree-seeking students enrolled at Penn State Berks for fall semesters between 2000 and 2007between 2000 and 2007
• Three types of independent variablesstudent demographic information– student demographic information
– pre-college data – college variables
• Dependent Variables (student success indicators)– First semester credits attempted & earned GPAFirst semester credits attempted & earned, GPA– First year credits earned, GPA– One year retention
Six year graduation– Six year graduation
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First Generation Student◦ Definition: Neither parent or p
guardian of an enrolled student has obtained a Bachelor’s degree
◦ 2 first generation variables– Two levels (yes first gen., no first
gen)– Four levels (<HS/HS, some college,
bac. degree, >bac. degree)– Also looked at those students with
i i d imissing parent education information
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Variable N PercentHigh School or Less 1 407 23 0%High School or Less 1,407 23.0%Some College 1,464 23.9%Baccalaureate Degree 1,350 22.0%
d lBeyond Baccalaureate Degree 1,546 25.2%Missing 361 5.9%Total 6,128 100.0%
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1st Generation Non-1st Generation
Variable N Percent N PercentMale 1,653 57.6% 1,830 62.6%Female 1,218 42.4% 1,066 37.4%
Native American 1 0.0% 1 0.1%African-American 203 7.1% 111 3.8%Asian 136 4.7% 141 4.9%Hispanic 120 4.2% 51 1.8%Caucasian 2,268 79.0% 2,436 84.1%Non-Resident Alien
18 0.6% 16 0.6%
Missing 125 4.4% 140 4.8%
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1st Generation Non-1st Generation
VariableMean
Standard Deviation Mean
Standard Deviation
SAT
Mathematics 500.79 87.66 521.27 83.34
Critical Reading 484.69 79.83 506.81 75.50g
PLACEMENT TESTS
Vocabulary 8.28 3.88 9.29 4.05Spelling 4.59 2.64 4.90 2.68
Grammar 3.28 2.03 3.57 2.12
Punctuation 5.93 2.78 6.38 2.71
Basic Math 12.57 3.26 13.17 2.84
Algebra/Trig 11.25 4.05 12.09 3.99
Business Calculus 7 69 5 41 8 60 5 60Business Calculus 7.69 5.41 8.60 5.60
Calculus 9.60 5.96 10.66 6.23
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1st Generation Non-1st
G iGeneration
Variable N Percent N PercentHas a Major (1st Sem)j
Yes 2,136 74.4% 2,143 74.0%No 735 25.6% 753 26.0%TOTAL 2 871 100 0% 2 453 100 0%TOTAL 2,871 100.0% 2,453 100.0%
Is a STEM Major (1st Sem)Yes 827 28.8% 875 30.2%No 2,044 71.2% 2,021 69.8%
TOTAL 2,871 100.0% 2896 100.0%
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1st Generation Non 1st Generation1st Generation Non-1st GenerationVariable
MeanStandard Deviation Mean
StandardDeviation
FIRST SEMESTERFIRST SEMESTERCredits
Attempted13.27 4.37 13.80 3.92
d dCredits Earned 12.84 4.88 13.52 4.38GPA 2.34 1.17 2.56 1.09
First YearCredits Earned 25.59 7.99 27.81 6.93GPA 2.48 1.00 2.65 0.97
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19
<HS/HS/GED
SomeCollege
Bac.Degree
> Bac Degree
Variable N Percent N Percent N Percent N Percent
Male 819 58.2% 834 57.0% 875 64.8% 955 61.8%
Female 588 41.8% 630 43.0% 475 35.2% 591 38.2%
Native American 1 0 1% 0 0 0% 0 0 0% 1 0 1%Native American 1 0.1% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 0.1%
African-American 116 8.2% 87 5.9% 43 3.2% 68 4.4%
Asian 92 6.5% 44 3.0% 57 4.2% 84 5.4%
Hispanic 69 4.9% 51 3.5% 26 1.9% 25 1.6%
Caucasian 1056 75.1% 1212 82.8% 1162 86.1% 1274 82.4%
Non-Resident Alien 15 1.1% 3 0.2% 2 0.1% 14 0.9%
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Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Pre College VariablesPre College Variablesgg
521.57 521.00
530.00
SAT Scores for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students
502.96
506.39 507.10
515.00
core
498.51
488.31
500.00
Mea
ns S
AT
Sc
SAT‐MathematicsSAT Citical Reading
471 50
480.88
486.31485.00
SAT‐Citical Reading
471.50470.00
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
Parents' Education Level
* Independent t-tests between first generation and non-first generation students were significant p ≤ .001
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Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Pre College VariablesPre College VariablesChartsCharts Pre College VariablesPre College Variables
13.21 13 14
Placement Scores (Math) Scores for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students
11.61
12.3612.77
3 13.14
11 0811.42
12.07 12.11
11.5
13.0
Mat
h)
10.39
11.08
9.229.54 9.65
10.59 10.72
10.0
cem
ent
Scor
es (M
Placement ‐ Basic MathPlacement ‐ TrigonometryPlacement ‐ Business CalculusPl t C l l
7.327.59
7.78
8.53 8.66
7 0
8.5
Pla Placement ‐ Calculus
7.0
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
Parents' Education Level
* Independent t-tests between first generation and non-first generation students were significant p ≤ .001
22
Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Pre College VariablesPre College Variablesgg
9.169.4
10English Placement Scores for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students*
8.06 8.128.42
7
8
9
core
Placement - VocabularyPlacement - SpellingPlacement - GrammerPlacement - Punctuation
4.88 4.91
5.59 5.86.06
6.41 6.35
5
6
7
lace
men
t Tes
t Sc Placement Punctuation
4.48 4.54 4.64
2.963.28 3.28
3.51 3.62
3
4
5
Mea
ns P
l
2
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
Parent's Education Level
* Independent t-tests between first generation and non-first generation students were significant p ≤ .001
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Parent's Education Level
Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Student Success IndicatorsStudent Success Indicators
13.8913 2
14.00
14.50
First Semester Credits Attempted/ Earned for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students
13.58
12.85
13.66 13.72
13.16
13.67
13.86
13.00
13.50
ed/E
arne
d
12.2412.42
12.00
12.50
Cre
dits
Att
empt
e
Fi t S t C dit Att t d
11.00
11.50
First Semester Credits AttemptedFirst Semester Credits EarnedMissing not “drooping” or
lowest of all parent educational levels
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
Parents' Education Level
* Independent t-test between first generation and non-first generation students credits attempted was significant p ≤ .01 Independent t-test between first generation and non-first generation students credits earned was significant p ≤ .001
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Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Student Success IndicatorsStudent Success Indicators
28.50
First Year Credits Earned for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students
26.8927.60
28.07
27.58
2 00
27.50
28.00
d 26.89
26.00
26.50
27.00
Cre
dits
Ear
ned
25.55
24 50
25.00
25.50
First Year Credits Earned
24.50
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
Parents' Education Level
* Independent t-test between first generation and non-first generation students credits attempted was significant p ≤ .01 Independent t-test between first generation and non-first generation students credits earned was significant p ≤ .001
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Results (exploratory analyses) Results (exploratory analyses) ChartsCharts--Student Success IndicatorsStudent Success IndicatorsChartsCharts Student Success IndicatorsStudent Success Indicators
2.65 2.662.65
2.70
GPA for Fall 2000-Fall 2007 Baccalaureate Degree Seeking First Year Students
2.54
2.56 2.56
2.55
2.60
2.44
2.422.42
2.40
2.45
2.50
GPA
First Year GPA
2.272.25
2.25
2.30
2.35First Year GPAFirst Semester GPA
2.20
Missing First Generation, Parents with No Beyond HS
HS Plus (Some College) Parents Has a Baccalaureate Degree
Parents Beyond Baccalaureate
P t ' Ed ti L l
* Independent t-test between first generation and non-first generation students was significant p ≤ .001 26
Parents' Education Level
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) One example:One example:O di Li R iO di Li R i OVERALL M d lOVERALL M d lOrdinary Linear Regression Ordinary Linear Regression OVERALL Model OVERALL Model for First Semester GPAfor First Semester GPA
Standardized Beta Weight (β)
Significance(p < …)
Demographic:G d 158 001Gender -.158 p < .001
Minority Status .034 p < .01
Parent Educational Level .079 p < .001
Pre-College:SAT-Mathematics -.032
SAT C iti l R di 042SAT-Critical Reading .042
Placement- Vocabulary .013 p < .05
Placement- Spelling .019
Placement- Grammar -.014
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Placement Grammar .014
Placement- Punctuation -.005
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) One example:One example:O di Li R iO di Li R i OVERALL M d lOVERALL M d lOrdinary Linear Regression Ordinary Linear Regression OVERALL Model OVERALL Model for First Semester GPAfor First Semester GPA
Standardized Beta Weight (β)
Significance(p < …)
Pre College (cont.)Placement- Basic Math -.048 p < .05
Placement- Algebra/Trig. .114 p < .001
Placement- Calculus .063 p < .05
College:Declared a major-1st sem. .058 p < .001
Declared as STEM-1st
sem.-.077 p < .001
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Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) One example:One example:O di Li R iO di Li R i OVERALL M d lOVERALL M d lOrdinary Linear Regression Ordinary Linear Regression OVERALL Model OVERALL Model for First Year GPAfor First Year GPA
Standardized Beta SignificanceStandardized Beta Weight (β)
Significance(p < …)
Demographic:Gender -.188 p < .001 All d hiGender .188 p < .001
Minority Status .044 p < .01
Parent Educational Level .069 p < .001
All demographic items significant
for first semester GPA
Pre-College:SAT-Mathematics -.007 p < .05
SAT-Critical Reading .052 p < .01
Placement- Vocabulary .014
Placement- Spelling .016
Placement- Grammar -.003
Only Vocab. Placement Test
significant for first semester GPA
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Placement- Punctuation -.003 p < .05
Red indicates β < First Semester Green indicates β > First Semester
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) One example:One example:O di Li R iO di Li R i OVERALL M d lOVERALL M d lOrdinary Linear Regression Ordinary Linear Regression OVERALL Model OVERALL Model for First Year Semester GPAfor First Year Semester GPA
Standardized Beta Weight (β)
Significance(p < …)
Pre College (cont.)Placement- Basic Math .045 p < .05
Placement- Algebra/Trig. .115 p < .001
Placement- Calculus .052
All Math Placement Test
significant for first semester GPA
College:Declared a major-1st sem. .070 p < .001 All College items
significant for Declared as STEM-1st
sem.-.065 p < .001 first semester
GPA
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Red indicates β < First Semester Green indicates β > First Semester
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) Logistic Regression Logistic Regression OVERALL Model for OneOVERALL Model for One--Year RetentionYear Retention
1-Year Retention
Variable Compared To… β WaldOdds
Ratio (Eβ)Gender Male 0.154 3.723 1.166Ethnicity Not White -0.042 0.203 0.959
<HS, HS*** > Bac. Degree -0.716 53.289 0.489Some College** > Bac. Degree -0.255 6.230 0.775Baccalaureate > Bac. Degree -0.159 21.306 0.853
SAT-M*** Next lowest score (x 10) -0.002 11.707 0.998
SAT-V Next lowest score (x 10) 0.000 0.091 1.000
Vocabulary-Placement Test Next lowest score -0.018 2.595 0.982
Spelling-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.020 1.669 1.020β Implication
<0
Probability LESS than Reference Group
Probability EQUALSGrammar-Placement Test Next lowest score -0.028 2.026 0.972
Punctuation-Placement Test Next lowest score -0.017 1.139 0.983
Basic Math-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.026 1.846 1.026
Al b /T i t Pl t T t** N t l t 0 053 8 461 1 054
0Probability EQUALS
Reference Group
>0
Probability GREATER than Reference Group
>=2
Probability GREATER than Reference Group by
100% or MORE
Algebra/Trigonometry-Placement Test** Next lowest score 0.053 8.461 1.054
Business Calculus-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.024 2.142 1.024
Calculus-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.017 1.393 1.017
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Declared Major Has NOT declared a Major -0.115 1.877 0.891
Declared as a STEM Major Is NOT a STEM -0.046 0.239 0.955* p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) Logistic Regression Logistic Regression OVERALL Model for OneOVERALL Model for One--Year RetentionYear Retention
0.96Declared as a STEM Major
One Year Retention: Odd Ratios for IVs
1 03
1.05
1.02
1.02
0.89
Basic Math Placement Test
Algebra/Trigonometry‐Placement Test
BusinessCalculus‐Placement Test
Calculus‐Placement Test
Declared Major
j
0.98
1.02
0.97
0.98
1.03
Vocabulary‐Placement Test
Spelling‐Placement Test
Grammar‐Placement Test
Punctuation‐Placement Test
Basic Math‐Placement Test
0.49
0.77
0.85
1.00
1.00
<HS, HS***
Some College*
Baccalaureate
SAT‐M***
SAT‐V
Odds Ratio
* P < 05
1.17
0.96
0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3
Gender*
Ethnicity* P < .05, ** P < .01, ** P < .001,
Less Likely Just as Likely More Likely to Persist to Persist to Persist
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to Persist to Persist to Persist
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) Logistic Regression Logistic Regression OVERALL Model for SixOVERALL Model for Six--Year GraduationYear Graduation
6-Year Graduation
Variable Compared To… β WaldOdds
Ratio (Eβ)Gender** Male 0 411 9 256 1 508Gender Male 0.411 9.256 1.508Ethnicity Not White -0.215 1.966 0.807
<HS, HS*** > Bac. Degree -0.743 22.240 0.476Some College* > Bac. Degree -0.357 4.681 0.700Baccalaureate > Bac. Degree -0.043 0.060 0.958
SAT-M Next lowest score (x 10) 0.000 0.278 1.000
SAT-V Next lowest score (x 10) 0.000 0.071 1.000Vocabulary Placement Test Next lowest score 0 208 1 825 0 812
β Implication
<0
Probability LESS than Reference Group
Vocabulary-Placement Test Next lowest score -0.208 1.825 0.812Spelling-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.043 2.488 1.044Grammar-Placement Test Next lowest score -0.012 0.145 0.988Punctuation-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.005 0.035 1.005Basic Math-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.017 0.274 1.017
0Probability EQUALS
Reference Group
>0
Probability GREATER than Reference Group
>=2
Probability GREATER than Reference Group by
100% or MORE
Basic Math Placement Test Next lowest score 0.017 0.274 1.017
Algebra/Trigonometry-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.045 2.499 1.046Business Calculus-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.029 1.214 1.029Calculus-Placement Test Next lowest score 0.008 0.132 1.008
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Declared Major Has NOT declared a Major -0.001 0.000 0.999Declared as a STEM Major Is NOT a STEM 0.100 0.427 1.105* p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001
Results (Regression Models) Results (Regression Models) Logistic Regression Logistic Regression OVERALL Model for SixOVERALL Model for Six--Year GraduationYear Graduation
Six Year Graduation Rates: Odd Ratio fo IVs
1.05
1.03
1.01
1.00
1.11
Algebra/Trigonometry‐Placement Test
BusinessCalculus‐Placement Test
Calculus‐Placement Test
Declared Major
Declared as a STEM Major
0 81
1.04
0.99
1.01
1.02
Vocabulary‐Placement Test
Spelling‐Placement Test
Grammar‐Placement Test
Punctuation‐Placement Test
Basic Math‐Placement Test
0.70
0.96
1.00
1.00
0.81
Some College*
Baccalaureate
SAT‐M***
SAT‐V
Vocabulary‐Placement Test
Odds Ratio
0.81
0.48
0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3
Gender*
Ethnicity
<HS, HS**** P < .05, ** P < .01, ** P < .001,
Less Likely Just as Likely More Likely
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Less Likely Just as Likely More Likely to Persist to Persist to Persist
I. Generalizability◦ Used fall 2000-2007 cohorts◦ Used fall 2000-2007 cohorts◦ Small campus◦ Less selective◦ Large percent of STEM
II VariablesII. Variables◦ Only looked at first semester and first year
variables◦ Financial Aid information was not included◦ PSU uses their own testing methods, not able to
compare to other institutionscompare to other institutions◦ Used student success indicators that were available
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Intervention at Middle School / High School Levelo Look at course taking patterns in HSo Build additional capacity in summer “STEM”
camps o PEPP- counsel on college prep (tracking)
Further study of students with missing parental education information
HS L th HS t d ti l lo HS vs. Less than HS parent education levelo Bac+ vs Masters
Expand studyo Obtain financial aid information o Continue to follow each cohorto Continue to follow each cohort
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Share results with college’s Retention Council taskforce
Use results in Summer Bridge Planning◦ Large number of 1st generation students in
program
PA ACT 101 programsg◦ Large number of 1st generation students in
program
Implementing intervention at High School level ◦ NSF grantNSF grant◦ Elementary Education◦ Secondary Education training
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R i f i h N 1 t i dReinforces previous research: Non-1st generation students outperform 1st generation students on college student success factors
1st generation students also perform more poorly on pre-college variables
Parent education level was impact more pronounced for 6 year graduation compared to 1st semester and 1st year indicatorsindicators
Students whose parents have earned Bac. Degree + don’t necessarily perform better than students who have Bac. y pdegree parents
Students who do not report parent education level do not fare as well except with respect to <HS/HS- important group to focus future research
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Dr. Mary Lou D’AllegroPlanning, Research & Assessment (PRA)
d23@ [email protected]
Stefanie KernsStefanie KernsPRA
PRA Web Pagehttp://bk psu edu/information/strategicplanning htmhttp://bk.psu.edu/information/strategicplanning.htmClick on PRA ReportsScroll to Presentations & Papers