steelorbis turkish steel market conference · 10 top 15 steel producers of the world, jan-sep 2011...
TRANSCRIPT
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WORLD & TURKISH STEEL MARKETAND OUTLOOK
STEELORBIS TURKISH STEEL MARKET CONFERENCE
Dr. Veysel YayanSecretary General
Turkish Iron and Steel Producers Association
18 November 2011İstanbul
2
World Crude Steel Production and Consumption (mmt)
* expected
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Production Consumption
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Production 851 904 970 1071 1144 1247 1346 1329 1232 1414 1500
Consumption 854 908 969 1058 1131 1239 1325 1309 1216 1384 1470
3
World Capacity Utilisation in Crude Steel Production (%)
* estimated
79,9 80,1
83,8
85,7
88,787,9
88,8 88,6
80,8
70,2
76,3
80,9
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
4
World Finished Steel Consumption (mmt) & Growth (%)
* Estimated** forecastedSource: Worldsteel
1224 12061137
12891367
1442
7,2
-1,4
-5,8
13,4
6,0 5,5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012**
Consumption % Growth
5
Steel Consumption in Developed Economies (mmt) & Growth (%)
* Estimated** forecastedSource: Worldsteel
474447
300
373392
404
0,1
-5,7
-32,9
24,4
5,32,9
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012**
Consumption % Growth
6
Steel Consumption in Developing & Emerging Economies (mmt) & Growth (%)
* Estimated** forecastedSource: Worldsteel
750 759
837
917975
103812,2
1,2
9,9 8,9
5,5 5,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012**
Consumption % Growth
7
World Steel Consumption (mmt) & Growth (%)
* Estimated** forecastedSource: Worldsteel
2010 2011* 2012** 11/10 12/11
EU27 144 156 161 8,1 3,1
Other Europe 30 33 35 11,5 6,1
CIS 49 56 60 14,4 7,6
NAFTA 111 122 128 9,6 5,6
C. & S. America 46 48 53 4,8 9,8
Africa 25 22 24 -12,2 11,6
Middle East 48 49 53 2,3 7,8
Asia &Ocenia 838 883 929 5,4 5,2
China 576 611 641 6,0 5,0
WORLD 1289 1367 1442 6,1 5,5
8
Apparent Crude Steel Consumption Per Capita (kg)
Source: Worldsteel* Turkey’s figure is DCUD Data
150158
166180
190
205218 215
196
221
369363
382389
371
420
448
415
263
326
137
170
208
227
269
304
359
320
265
341
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World EU27 Turkey
9
World Semis & Finished Steel Export (mmt)
Source: Worldsteel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
300319
333
366 371
418
443 436
326
387
10
Top 15 Steel Producers of the World, Jan-Sep 2011 (‘000 tonnes)
2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m % change
1 China 573 567 626 654 474.900 525.700 10,7
2 Japan 87 534 109 600 81.934 81.015 -1,1
3 USA 58 196 80 594 60.886 64.682 6,2
4 India 62 838 66 848 51.179 53.906 5,3
5 Russia 60 011 67 021 49.728 51.870 4,3
6 S. Korea 48 572 58 453 42.653 50.628 18,7
7 Germany 32 670 43 815 32.969 34.139 3,6
8 Brazil 26 506 32 820 24.885 26.715 7,4
9 Ukraine 29 855 33 559 24.616 26.372 7,1
10 Turkey 25 304 29 143 21.078 25.058 18,9
11 Italy 19 848 25 751 19.099 21.260 11,3
12 Taiwan 15 873 19 641 14.555 17.023 17,0
13 Mexico 13 957 17 041 12.470 13.646 9,4
14 Spain 14 362 16 311 12.566 12.211 -2,8
15 France 12 840 15 416 11.625 11.913 2,5
TOTAL 1 229 410 1 413 596 1.047.966 1.133.860 8,2
- 50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350 313
14595
6633 28 23 14 14 13 7 1 - 1 - 2 - 3 - 11 - 20
(2001/2010, %)
-20,0
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0 25,3
15,7
9,0 8,76,5
-1,0 -1,2 -2,2 -2,7 -4,8 -4,4 -7,7 -10,0 -11,8-12,5 -13,8 -15,8
(2008/2010, %)
11
Production Growth Performance of the Top 15 Steel Producing Countries
12
Crude Steel Production Growth (%) of The Largest 15 Producers (Jan-Sep 2011 )
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0 18,9 18,7
17,0
11,310,7
9,4
7,4 7,16,2
5,34,3
3,62,5
-1,1 -2,8
13
Development of Economy, Construction, Manufacturing and Steel Industries (%)
10,2
13,9
10,7
21,3
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-H1
GDP
Construction
Manufacturing
Steel Industry
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-H1
GDP 8,4 6,9 4,7 0,7 -4,7 9,0 10,2
Construction 21,5 19,4 5,7 -8,1 -16,3 17,1 13,9
Manufacturing 8,2 8,4 5,6 -0,1 -7 13,3 10,7
Steel Industry 2,4 11,8 9,9 4,1 -5,6 15,2 21,3
14
İzmir Region
11.2 mt
Iskenderun
Region
16.2 mt
Marmara
Region
13.1 mt Black Sea
Region
6.3 mt
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production Capacity by Regions in 2011 (million tons)
Turkey’s Melting Capacity (million tons)
15
* estimated
13,6
18,8
26,1
29,8
33,436,3
6,2 6,38,0 8,5 9,4
10,9
19,8
25,1
34,1
38,3
42,7
47,2
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
2000 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011*
EAF BOF TOTAL
Turkey’s Slab Production Capacity (million tons)
16* estimated
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015*
3,0
11,312,2
13,4
16,8 17,3
18,9 19,2 20,0
17
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production (million tons) and Utilisation in Melting Capacity (%)
11,9 12,0 13,6 15,217,4 17,9
20,3 22,0 22,720,5 21,8
24,02,4 3,0
2,93,1
3,0 3,1
3,13,7 4,2
4,8
7,3
10,0
72 7275
80
8783 85
80 79
6871
78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Billet Slab CU %
18
Turkey’s Crude Steel Production (million tons)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010201010m
201110m
% change(11/10)
Billet 20,3 22,0 22,7 20,5 21,8 17,9 20,0 11,2
Slab 3,1 3,7 4,2 4,8 7,3 5,9 8,2 39,1
TOTAL 23,4 25,8 26,8 25,3 29,1 23,8 28,1 18,1
EAF 17,3 19,4 19,8 17,7 20,9 17,0 20,8 22,5
BOF 6,2 6,4 7,0 7,6 8,2 6,8 7,3 7,2
Billet87%
Slab13%
2006 Slab: 3.1 mmtBillet: 20.3 mmt
* 2011 estimated
Billet71%
Slab29%
2011 Slab: 10 mmtBillet: 24 mmt
19
Turkey’s Montly Crude Steel Production (million tons)
2,54
1,75
2,35
1,82
2,54
3,08
1,50
1,70
1,90
2,10
2,30
2,50
2,70
2,90
3,10
3,30Ja
n.0
8Fe
b.0
8M
ar.0
8A
pr.
08
May
.08
Jun
.08
Jul.0
8A
ug.
08Se
p.0
8O
ct.0
8N
ov.
08
Dec
.08
Jan
.09
Feb
.09
Mar
.09
Ap
r.0
9M
ay.0
9Ju
n.0
9Ju
l.09
Au
g.09
Sep
.09
Oct
.09
No
v.0
9D
ec.0
9Ja
n.1
0Fe
b.1
0M
ar.1
0A
pr.
10
May
.10
Jun
.10
Jul.1
0A
ug.
10Se
p.1
0O
ct.1
0N
ov.
10
Dec
.10
Jan
.11
Feb
.11
Mar
.11
Ap
r.1
1M
ay.1
1Ju
n.1
1Ju
l.11
Au
g.11
Sep
.11
Oct
.11
Turkey’s Slab Production (million tons)
20* estimated
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
2,43,0 2,9 3,1 3,0 3,1 3,1
3,74,2
4,8
7,3
4,5
6,3
10,0
21
Turkey’s Total Finished Steel Production and Apparent Consumption (million tons)
* estimated
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
19,6
23,4
26,1 26,725,1
26,3
31,5
18,4
21,2
23,8
21,5
18,0
23,6
26,5
1,2
2,12,3
5,2
7,1
2,7
5,0
Production Consumption Balance
22
Turkey’s Total Steel Export & Import (million tons)
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
20,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
13,3
15,4
16,7
20,0
18,7
17,6
12,7
13,8
10,1
12,3
13,9 13,6
10,511,0
8,88,2
Export
Import
23
Turkey’s Total Steel Export & Import (Billion USD)
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
7,6
9,4
12,2
20,5
12,0
13,3
9,4
12,4
7,0
8,6
11,5
15,0
8,0
10,0
7,5
9,0
Export
Import
24
Turkey’s Total Steel Export by Products (million tons)
2,21,6 1,7 2,5 2,4
3,7 2,71,9
1,21,4 1,2 1,4 1,7
1,5 0,91,9
7,79,6 10,9 12,9 11,8
9,2 6,8 7,6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
Semis Flat Long Pipes Others
25
Turkey’s Total Steel Export By Regions (million tons)
5,0 5,26,4
10,2
6,88,1 5,4
5,3
3,7 5,2
6,34,4
2,7
2,61,8 3,1
1,5 1,6
1,41,7
4,92,7
2,1 1,3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
Middle East & Gulf EU-27 N. Africa Far East & SE Asia USA CIS Others
26
Turkey’s Total Steel Import (million tons)
1,9 2,8 3,4 3,83,6
2,4 2,0 1,6
6,88,0 8,6
8,05,6
6,8 5,44,9
0,9 0,9 1,2 1,1 0,81,2 0,9
1,0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
Semis Flat Long Pipes Others
27
Turkey’s Total Steel Import By Regions (million tons)
5,16,8 7,5 7,3 5,3
4,6 3,8 3,4
4,44,5 5,1 4,4 3,9
4,8 3,83,3
0,30,5 0,9
1,3 0,7 1,1 0,80,9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
CIS EU-27 Far East & SE Asia N. Africa USA Middle East & Gulf Others
28
Turkey’s Total Scrap Import By Regions (million tons)
7,2
5,1 5,0 5,77,3 7,6
7,810,6 7,5
7,3
0,8
0,6 1,42,7
3,95,0
3,84,3 2,9
4,3
2,1
3,74,0
4,0
3,42,2 1,3
1,5 0,9 1,6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010-9m 2011-9m
EU27 USA Russia Ukraine Others
29
Conclusions
• Turkey is a dynamic economy with a fast growing steel industry.
• Dependency on imports in raw materials will stay as one of the main challanges.
• Recent investments to flat steel, quality steel, structural steel and stainless steel will
enable Turkish steel industry to have a better production and trade structure and help
Turkish steel industry to serve the domestic and export markets better.
• Investments to new products which are basically imported will increase the
contribution of the steel industry to the elimination of the foreign trade and current
account deficit.
• Considering the growing tendency of the steel using sectors in Turkey and enlarging
product range, Turkish steel industry will grow in a more balanced structure in the
future.
30
Conclusions
• Turkish steel industry has been practicing market diversification strategy due to the
rapid changes in market conditions.
• In 2010 and 2011, Turkish steel industry balanced its losses in main export markets by
focusing on neighbouring countries, South America and Far East markets.
• Despite increasing capacities, Middle East and North Africa will stay as important
export destionation for Turkish steel in the medium term.
• Slab casting investments of some long steel producers also relieved the pressure on
long steel exports.