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TRANSCRIPT
STEEL PRICE FORECASTS
TO 2018
EUROPEAN UNION
July 2014
www.meps.co.uk
MEPS (International) ltd
263 Glossop Road
Sheffield S10 2GZ
t: 0114 275 0570
f: 0114 275 9808
STEEL PRICE FORECASTS TO 2018EUROPEAN UNION
Price of report £975.00
July 2014
MEPS (INTERNATIONAL) LTD263 Glossop Road, Sheffi eld,S10 2GZ, UK
Telephone: (0114) 275 0570 Fax: (0114) 275 9808
E-mail: [email protected] Web Site: http://www.meps.co.uk
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Copyright © 2014by MEPS (International) LtdAll rights reserved
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
CONTENTS
SECTION PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1 2. BACKGROUND 3 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
4. ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 5 5. LONG TERM ANNUAL FORECASTS 10 6. STEELMAKING RAW MATERIAL COSTS 17
7. MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS 20
8. RISKS 26
9. APPENDIX 28
10. DEFINITIONS 32
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
1Copyright © 2014
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1Copyright © 2014
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1
INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION
METHODOLOGY
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2
THE REPORT
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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3
BACKGROUND
70.0
90.0
110.0
130.0
150.0
170.0
190.0
210.0
230.0
Historic EU27 Steel Price, Production and Economic IndicatorsIndex, 1993 = 100
EU27 GDP EU27 IP EU27 Crude EU5 AP Price €Linear (EU27 GDP) Linear (EU27 IP) Linear (EU27 Crude) Linear (EU5 AP Price €)
COMMENTARY HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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4
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
70.0
90.0
110.0
130.0
150.0
170.0
190.0
210.0
230.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
EU27 Steel Price, Production and Economic IndicatorsIndex, 1993 = 100
EU27 GDP EU27 IP EU27 Crude EU5 AP Price €
Linear (EU27 GDP) Linear (EU27 IP) Linear (EU27 Crude) Linear (EU5 AP Price €)
GRAPH HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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5
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
EU REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
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6
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
7
Real GDP (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS
Industrial Production (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, OE, MEPS
Private Consumption (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS
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8
Public Consumption (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, IMF, OE, MEPS
Consumer Price Infl ation (percentage change year-on-year)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, IMF, OE, World Bank, MEPS
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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9
Short-Term Interest RatesACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Canada ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???China ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???India ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Japan ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???South Korea ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Taiwan ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???USA ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: OE, OECD, MEPS
Unemployment Rate (percentage)ACTUAL FORECAST
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Eurozone ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Germany ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???France ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Italy ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Spain ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???UK ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Source: CE, OE, MEPS
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
10
LONG TERM ANNUAL FORECASTS
ANNUAL AVERAGE ALL PRODUCTS COMPOSITE STEEL PRICE FORECAST
431
557
612569
524502 514 533 527 533
350
550
750
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTAll Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne
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11
ANNUAL AVERAGE FLAT PRODUCTS STEEL PRICE FORECAST
European Union - Flat Products
€/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised
Flat Products Composite
AC
TUA
L
2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710
681 746 784 851 760
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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12
350
400
450
500
550
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne
COMMENTARY HERE
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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13
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, €/tonne
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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14
ANNUAL AVERAGE LONG PRODUCTS STEEL PRICE FORECAST
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values
European Union - Long Products
€/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)
Medium Sections &
BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products
Composite
AC
TUA
L
2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710
681 746 784 851 760
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
COMMENTARY HERE
COMMENTARY HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
15
350
400
450
500
550
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTLong Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTWire Rod (Mesh) Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
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16
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMedium Sections & Beams Transaction Values, €/tonne
300
350
400
450
500
550
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTRebar Transaction Values, €/tonne
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMerchant Bar Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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17
STEELMAKING RAW MATERIAL COSTS
European Union
$US/tonne Brazil Iron Ore Fines
AC
TUA
L 2010 ???
2011 ???
2012 ???
2013 ???2014 110
2015 106
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ???
2015 ???
2016 ???
2017 ???
2018 ???
STEEL SCRAP
European Union
$US/tonne EU Coking Coal
AC
TUA
L 2010 ???
2011 ???
2012 ???
2013 ???2014 110
2015 106
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ???
2015 ???
2016 ???
2017 ???
2018 ???
European Union
$US/tonne EU HMS1 (E3)
AC
TUA
L 2010 ???
2011 ???
2012 ???
2013 ???2014 110
2015 106
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ???
2015 ???
2016 ???
2017 ???
2018 ???
200
250
300
350
400
450
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - HMS1 / E3, EUROPEAN UNION $US/tonne
COMMENTARY HERE
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18
IRON ORE
8090
100110120130140150160170
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - IRON ORE FINES, BRAZILFe 64%, fob, $US/tonne
COMMENTARY HERE
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19
COKING COAL
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Actual Forecast
MEPS - COKING COAL, EUROPEAN UNION$US/tonne
GRAPH HERE
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20
MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS - FLAT PRODUCTS
European Union
€/tonne Hot Rolled Coil
Hot Rolled Plate
Cold Rolled Coil
Hot Dipped Galvanised
Flat Products Composite
AC
TUA
L
Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
FOR
ECA
ST
Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
21
450470490510530550570590610630650
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
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16
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16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTFlat Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne
350
400
450
500
550
600
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
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13
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13
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13
Q1/
14
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14
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14
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14
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15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
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13
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13
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13
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14
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14
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14
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14
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15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
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15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Rolled Plate Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
22
450470490510530550570590610630650
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTCold Rolled Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
450
500
550
600
650
700
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTHot Dipped Galvanised Coil Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
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23
MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS - LONG PRODUCTS
European Union
€/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)
Medium Sections &
BeamsRebar Merchant
BarLong Products
Composite
AC
TUA
L
Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
FOR
ECA
ST
Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values
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MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
24
400420440460480500520540560580600
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
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14
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15
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15
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15
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Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTLong Products Composite Transaction Values, €/tonne
350
400
450
500
550
600
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
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13
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13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
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14
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14
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15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTWire Rod (Mesh) Transaction Values, €/tonne
450
500
550
600
650
700
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMedium Sections & Beams Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
25
350
400
450
500
550
600
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTRebar Transaction Values, €/tonne
400
450
500
550
600
650
Q3/
11
Q4/
11
Q1/
12
Q2/
12
Q3/
12
Q4/
12
Q1/
13
Q2/
13
Q3/
13
Q4/
13
Q1/
14
Q2/
14
Q3/
14
Q4/
14
Q1/
15
Q2/
15
Q3/
15
Q4/
15
Q1/
16
Q2/
16
Q3/
16
Q4/
16
Actual Forecast
MEPS - EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECASTMerchant Bar Transaction Values, €/tonne
GRAPH HERE
GRAPH HERE
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
26
RISKS
COMMENTARY HERE
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
27
COMMENTARY HERE
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
28
APPENDIX
FORECAST DATA - $US/TONNE Long Term Annual Forecast - Flat Products Long Term Annual Forecast - Long Products Medium Term Forecast - Flat Products Medium Term Forecast - Long Products
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
29
ANNUAL FORECASTS - US DOLLAR VALUES
European Union - Flat Products
$US/tonne Hot Rolled Coil Hot Rolled Plate Cold Rolled Coil Hot Dipped Galvanised
Flat Products Composite
AC
TUA
L
2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710
681 746 784 851 760
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
European Union - Long Products
$US/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)
Medium Sections &
BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products
Composite
AC
TUA
L
2009 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2010 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2011 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2012 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2013 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???637 688 730 800 710
681 746 784 851 760
FOR
ECA
ST
2014 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2015 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2016 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2017 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
2018 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.
Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
30
European Union
$US/tonne Hot Rolled Coil
Hot Rolled Plate
Cold Rolled Coil
Hot Dipped Galvanised
Flat Products Composite
AC
TUA
L
Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
FOR
ECA
ST
Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.
Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar
FLAT PRODUCTS - US DOLLAR VALUES
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
31
European Union
$US/tonne Wire Rod (Mesh)
Medium Sections &
BeamsRebar Merchant Bar Long Products
Composite
AC
TUA
L
Q3/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/09 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/10 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/11 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/12 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/13 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
FOR
ECA
ST
Q3/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/14 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/15 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q1/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q2/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q3/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???Q4/16 ??? ??? ??? ??? ???
LONG PRODUCTS - US DOLLAR VALUES
Transaction Prices - Based On MEPS Low Values.
Dollar values based on a fi xed exchange rate of 0.764 Euros per US Dollar
Copyright © 2014
MEPS Steel Price Forecasts to 2018 July 2014
Copyright © 2014 by MEPS. No information contained in this report may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission from the publisher.
32
DEFINITIONS
Quarterly and annual transactions prices are the realised values obtained by the mills for the cheapest grade of steel in the size range specifi ed for each product. These are determined by adding the relevant size extras to the negotiated ex-mill basis price for the selected product.
Transaction values relate to those paid by consumers and stockholders for prime material. The prices are for regular business between customers and their local steel mills, negotiated during the current month for delivery in the future. Delivery charges and local taxes are not included in the quoted prices. Contract deals arranged in the domestic market, or deals for lots of imported steel, are specifi cally excluded from our price evaluation.
• Hot-Rolled Wide Coil - 2-3mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres.• Hot-Rolled Plates - 15-40mm thickness, width over 2.0 metres.• Cold-Rolled Coils - 1mm thickness, width over 1.3 metres. • Hot Dipped Galvanised Coils - 1mm thickness, width over 1.1 metres, coating thickness 275gm/m²• Wire Rod (Mesh Quality) - 8-12mm diameter.• Medium Sections and Beams - 240 x 240mm H Beam.• Reinforcing Bar (Deformed) - 16-20mm diameter - high yield.• Merchant Bar - 50 x 50 x 6mm equal angle.
EU AveragePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values identifi ed in Germany, France, Italy, UK and Spain, collected in national currencies and converted into euros using currency exchange rates effective at the start of each month to provide a basis for comparison.
Flat Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for hot rolled coil and plate, cold rolled coil and hot dipped coated coil.
Long Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for wire rod, structural sections, reinforcing bar and merchant bar.
All Products CompositePrices are computed from a weighted average (based on consumption) of the low transaction values recorded in the relevant period for all carbon steel products in the fl at and long categories.
Raw MaterialsIron Ore - Brazilian Fines Fe 64% FOBCoking Coal - EU ex-works parity quarterly contract priceScrap - EU HMS1 (E3) average price in France, Germany, Italy and Spain
DisclaimerAll price and market data is researched by MEPS staff and our local correspondents. The information has been obtained from respondents who we consider provide accurate intelligence on the steel market. We make our best endeavours to be assured that the information is correct and that our analysis is reliable. MEPS (International) Ltd cannot be made liable for any loss resulting from the use of our published data, however it may arise.