steel industry update #282

7/29/2019 Steel Industry Update #282

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Email: [email protected] | Website: www.lockerassociates.com

Steel Industry Update/282 February 2013Locker Associates, 225 Broadway, Suite 2625 New York NY 10007 Tel: 212-962-2980

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Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, 2009-2012

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2013

Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2013

Table 4: Global Crude Steel Production, by Year, 2000-2012e

Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports, by Country, October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Table 6: Global Iron Ore Mine Production and Reserves, 2011-2012

Table 7: Global DRI Production, 2012

Table 8: Turkeys Top 10 Rebar Export Destinations, 2012

Table 9: Chinas Top 10 Steel Mills, by Output, 2012

Table 10: Japanese Steel Exports, by Product, 2012

Table 11: NLMK Steel Mill Production, 2012

Table 12: Severstal Production & Sales Volume, 2012

Table 13: Tenaris SA Financial Results, 3rd Quarter 2012Table 14: Vale Output of Steel Mill Products October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Table 1: Selected U.S. Steel Industry Data, 2009 - 2012

(000 net tons) 2009 2010 2011 2012 % Chg

Raw Steel Production (mt). 58.2 80.5 86.4 88.6 2.5%

Mill Shipments (mt). 54.8 75.8 83.5 87.2 4.4%

Exports (mt)... 8.5 11.0 12.2 12.5 2.2%

Total Imports (mt). 14.7 21.7 25.9 30.4 17.4%

Average Spot Price* ($/ton).. $553 $680 $867 $754 -13.0%Average Scrap Price# ($/ton).. $236 $348 $437 $398 -9.8%

Sources: AISI, World Steel Dynamics, US ITA, *composite of 3 carbon products; #shredded bundles

Table 2: U.S. Spot Prices for Selected Products, February & Year-to-Date, 2013

Month of February Year-to-Date

($ per net ton) 2013 2012 % Chg 2013 2012 % Chg

Hot Rolled Band.... 631 735 -14.1% 628 732 -14.2%

Cold Rolled Coil........ 727 830 -12.4% 725 830 -12.7%

Coiled Plate.................. 722 934 -22.7% 729 942 -22.7%

Average Spot Price.... $693 $833 -16.8% $694 $835 -16.9%OCTG* 1,878 2,014 -6.8% 1,878 2,014 -6.8%

#1 Heavy Melt... 332 393 -15.5% 339 407 -16.6%

Shredded Scrap... 366 435 -15.9% 373 451 -17.3%

#1 Busheling. 370 470 -21.3% 378 487 -22.5%

Iron Ore ($/dmtu)... 150 140 7.1% 150 140 7.1%

Pig Iron ($/tonne)... 385 450 -14.4% 446 494 -9.7%

Sources: World Steel Dynamics, Spears Research; SteelontheNet.com; IndexMundi.com; *OCTG andiron ore data is January, 2013; pig iron data is December, 2012, $/dmtu: US$/dry metric tonne unit


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Steel Industry Update/282

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Table 3: World Crude Steel Production, January & Year-to-Date, 2013

(000 metric tons) Month of J anuary Year-to-Date

Region 2013 2012 % Chg 2013 2012 % Chg

European Union. 13,452 14,157 -5.0% 13,452 14,157 -5.0%

Other Europe. 3,015 3,334 -9.6% 3,015 3,334 -9.6%

C.I.S. 8,913 9,503 -6.2% 8,913 9,503 -6.2%

North America 10,139 10,451 -3.0% 10,139 10,451 -3.0%South America... 3,611 3,731 -3.2% 3,611 3,731 -3.2%

Africa/Middle East..... 2,854 2,929 -2.6% 2,854 2,929 -2.6%

Asia.. 82,325 79,174 4.0% 82,325 79,174 4.0%

Oceania...... 491 490 0.3% 491 490 0.3%

Total 124,799 123,768 0.8% 124,799 123,768 0.8%

Country

China....... 59,339 56,733 4.6% 59,339 56,733 4.6%

Japan... 8,865 8,630 2.7% 8,865 8,630 2.7%

United States.. 7,260 7,707 -5.8% 7,260 7,707 -5.8%

India(e). 6,600 6,357 3.8% 6,600 6,357 3.8%

Russia.. 5,751 5,775 -0.4% 5,751 5,775 -0.4%South Korea....... 5,705 6,049 -5.7% 5,705 6,049 -5.7%

Germany... 3,550 3,367 5.4% 3,550 3,367 5.4%

Turkey.. 2,859 3,135 -8.8% 2,859 3,135 -8.8%

Ukraine... 2,748 2,873 -4.4% 2,748 2,873 -4.4%

Brazil 2,620 2,791 -6.1% 2,620 2,791 -6.1%

All Others.... 19,502 20,351 -4.2% 19,502 20,351 -4.2%

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13; e=estimate

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13; in million metric tons

Graph 1: World Crude Steel Production, January 2013


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Source: World Steel Association, 2/13

Graph 2: World Steel Capacity Utilization, January 2013

Source: World Steel Association, 2/13

Graph 3: World Crude Steel Output, 2005-2012e


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Table 4: Global Crude Steel Production, by Year, 2000-2012e

Year Output (mil tonnes) Yr-Yr % Chg

2000 847.6 --

2001 850.3 0.3%

2002 904.0 6.3%

2003 969.9 7.3%

2004 1,069.1 10.2%

2005 1,146.7 7.3%

2006 1,251.2 9.1%

2007 1,351.3 8.0%

2008 1,307.3 -3.3%

2009 1,211.5 -7.3%

2010 1,413.6 16.7%

2011 1,490.0 5.3%

2012(e) 1,510.0 1.3%

Source: Worldsteel.org, 1/8/13

Table 5: U.S. Steel Exports, by Country, October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Country Oct12 Sep12 % Chg YTD12 YTD11 % Chg

Canada 574,922 534,016 7.7% 5,758,658 5,574,166 3.3%

Mexico 393,691 319,206 23.3% 3,582,069 2,814,065 27.3%

EU 41,153 37,339 10.2% 514,841 459,316 12.1%

Russia 543 1,087 -50.0% 6,212 7,324 -15.2%

Turkey 1,293 1,160 11.5% 18,097 29,615 -38.9%

Brazil 13,827 9,125 51.5% 179,914 117,850 52.7%

Venezuela 7,312 4,062 80.0% 104,570 56,457 85.2%

Ecuador 549 430 27.7% 10,862 38,671 -71.9%

Argentina 284 980 -71.0% 6,109 12,792 -52.2%

Colombia 6,170 7,510 -17.8% 107,572 93,976 14.5%

Trinidad & Tobago 2,500 340 635.3% 13,201 16,543 -20.2%

Peru 6,172 13,922 -55.7% 165,052 104,885 57.4%

Chile 3,864 3,447 12.1% 22,593 26,452 -14.6%

Dominican Rep 17,648 28,312 -37.7% 186,243 187,905 -0.9%

Panama 7,604 1,088 598.9% 57,522 101,510 -43.3%

Other W. Hemis 10,216 22,178 -53.9% 193,613 236,670 -18.2%

Africa 10,157 11,295 -10.1% 124,228 220,678 -43.7%

Australia 4,320 3,008 43.6% 32,958 30,181 9.2%

China 9,828 11,234 -12.5% 103,753 127,992 -18.9%

Other Asia 44,134 12,709 247.3% 245,678 222,095 10.6%

Others 29,627 35,353 -16.2 343,797 543,839 36.8

Total 1,185,814 1,057,801 12.1% 11,777,542 11,022,982 6.8%

Source: AIIS, 12/17/12

Steel Industry Update (ISSN 1063-4339) published 12 times/year by Locker Associates, Inc. Copyright 2013 by Locker Associates, Inc. Allrights reserved. Reproduction in any form forbidden w/o permission. Locker Associates, Inc., 225 Broadway Suite 2625 New York NY 10007.


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Table 6: Global Iron Ore Mine Production and Reserves, 2012e

Country 2012e 2011 Reserves

China 1,300 1,330 23,000

Australia 525 488 35,000

Brazil 375 373 29,000

India 245 240 7,000

Russia 100 100 25,000

Ukraine 81 81 76,500

South Africa 61 60 1,000

Other countries 61 59 12,000

United States 53 55 6,900

Canada 40 34 6,300

Iran 28 28 2,500

Kazakhstan 25 25 2,500

Sweden 25 25 3,500

Venezuela 20 17 4,000

Mexico 13 15 700

Mauritania 12 12 1,100

World total 3,000 2,940 170,000

Source: Payvand, 2/6/13; in million tonnes

Table 7: Global DRI Production, 2012

Country 2012e 2011 % Chg

India 19,739 27,560 -28.4%

Iran 11,395 10,150 12.3%

Mexico 5,510 5,945 -7.3%

Saudi Arabia 5,160 5,153 0.1%

Egypt 4,540 2,933 54.8%

Venezuela 4,510 4,470 0.9%

Trinidad & Tobago 1,693 1,915 -11.6%

Argentina 1,586 1,650 -3.9%

South Africa 1,410 1,400 0.7%Canada 824 702 17.4%

Peru 95 95 0.0%

Total 56,462 63,474 -11.0%

Source: Worldsteel.org, 1/2/13; in 000 tonnes


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Table 8: Turkeys Top 10 Rebar Export Destinations, 2012

Country Year 2012 Year 2011 Dec 12 Dec11

Iraq 1,246,723 858,793 104,838 91,973UAE 979,657 1,220,078 114,615 92,987Saudi Arabia 677,341 231,053 74,556 30,291US

597,375

372,518

121,978

146,092

Yemen 487,422 238,422 50,604 53,924Egypt 455,548 390,945 4,972 70,975Israel 439,271 406,435 26,472 33,089Libya 361,646 60,081 64,518 8,250Lebanon 315,880 222,613 35,165 14,160Ethiopia 287,511 174,943 11,251 19,871Source: Steelorbis.com, 2/5/13; in tonnes

Table 9: Chinas Top 10 Steel Mills, by Output, 2012

Company 2012 ShareHebei Iron & Steel Group 69.2 9.7%

Anshen Iron & Steel Group 45.3 6.3%

Baosteel Group 42.7 6.0%

Wuhan Iron & Steel Group 36.4 5.1%

Shagang Group 32.3 4.5%

Shougang Group 31.4 4.4%

Shandong Iron & Steel Group 23.0 3.2%

Magang Group 17.3 2.4%

Tangshan Bohai Steel Group 17.3 2.4%

Hunan Valin Iron & Steel Group 14.1 2.0%

Total of Top 10 Steelmakers 329.0 45.9%

Other Steelmakers 388.0 54.1%

Total of All Steelmakers 717.0 100.00%

Source: Reuters, 2/3/13; in million tonnes

Table 10: Japanese Steel Exports, by Product, 2012

Product 2012 2011 % ChgPig iron 402,584 52,885 661%Ferroalloy 230,394 132,879 73%Ingots

6,071 51,004 -88%

Semi-finished products 5,512,929 5,111,373 8%Total ordinary steel products 27,678,225 27,372,448 1%Total specialty steel products 7,852,004 7,709,654 2%Total secondary steel products 675,682 671,595 1%Total iron and steel products 42,494,856 41,234,288 3%Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/13; in tonnes


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Table 11: NLMK Steel Mill Production, 2012

Product 2012 2011 % ChgPig iron 2.88 2.96 -2.7%Crude steel 3.67 3.77 -2.6%Salable pig iron 0.04 0.11 -60.8%Salable slabs 1.04 1.05 -1.4%Flat products 2.08 2.16 -3.8%Long products 0.35 0.38 -6.3%Metalware 0.07 0.08 -15.1%Total steel 3.58 3.78 -5.2%Source: SteelGuru, 2/2/13; in million tonnes

Table 12: Severstal Production & Sales Volume, 2012

Production 2012 2011 % ChgRussian Steel 10,553,560 11,354,746 -7%

Severstal NA 4,586,626 3,938,661 16%

Hot metal (total 10,256,881 10,543,687 -3%

Russian Steel 8,407,000 8,815,059 -5%

North America 1,849,881 1,728,628 7%

Crude steel total 15,140,185 15,293,407 -1%

Sales Volume 2012 2011 % ChgCoking coal concentrate 7,513,436 7,591,670 -1%

Iron ore pellets 10,439,413 10,051,406 4%

Iron ore concentrate 4,759,702 4,763,870 0%

Total steel products 14,605,102 14,824,074 -1%

Total steel products (Russian) 10,295,098 11,027,695 -7%

Total steel products (SNA) 4,464,137 3,808,552 17%

Source: SteelGuru, 1/30/13; in tonnes

Table 13: Tenaris SA Financial Results, 3rd Quarter 2012

Item Q3 '12 Q2 '12 % Chg Q3 '11

Net sales 2,657.1 2,801.5 -5% 2,494.80

Operating income 583.6 620.9 -6% 468.6

Net income 437.5 460.2 -5% 365.5

Shareholders' net income 436.4 461.1 -5% 325

Earnings per ADS 0.74 0.78 -5% 0.55

Earnings per share 0.37 0.39 -5% 0.28

EBITDA 679 758.6 -10% 603.6

EBITDA margin (% of net sales) 26% 27% 24%

Source: SteelGuru, 11/9/12; in US$ millions


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Table 14: Vale Output of Steel Mill Products October 2012 & Year-to-Date

Product Q4'12 Q4'11 % Chg 2012 2011 % Chg

Iron Ore 85,498 82,944 3.1% 319,690 322,632 -0.9%Pallets 12,090 12,344 -2.1% 55,067 53,817 2.3%

Manganese 668 757 -11.8% 2,365 2,556 -7.5%

Coal 1,951 1,608 21.3% 7,082 3,707 91.0%

Nickel 64 69 -7.2% 237 242 -2.1%

Copper 81 85 -4.7% 292 302 -3.3%

Potash 161 180 -10.6% 549 625 -12.2%

Phosphate Rock 2,060 1,833 12.4% 7,982 7,359 8.5%

Source: SteelGuru, 2/12/13; in 000 tonnes


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