status update: canadian wood pellet industry · ¡the global wood pellet industry is growing ¡in...
TRANSCRIPT
GordonMurray,ExecutiveDirector
StatusUpdate:CanadianWoodPelletIndustry
¡ Woodpellets101¡ Wherepelletsfitinthebioenergysector¡ Wherepelletsfitintheforestrysector¡ Pelletfibresources¡ Productionandconsumptionstatistics¡ Exportmarkets¡ Canadianmarketopportunity
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¡ Renewablefuel¡ Madefromcompressedwoodfibre.¡ Ligninbindsthefibre.Noadhesivesneeded.
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Powergeneration
Efficiency~35%
Heat,&hotwater
Residential/commercial/institutio
nal
Efficiency~90%
Animalbedding&oil
patchabsorbent
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¡ Ethanol– 1.6bn litresperyear.Netimporter.Madefromcornandwheat.Nationalmandate– 5%.
¡ Biodiesel– 350mn litresperyear– mostexportedtoUSA,thenre-importedasblendeddiesel.Canola,animalfats,recycledcookingoils.Mandate- 2%.
¡ Woodpellets– 2.7millionTPY,90%exported.
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¡ Annuallogharvest:130milliontonnes¡ Fibre usedforpellets:5milliontonnes (4%)¡ Annualforestproductsrevenue:$60bn¡ Annualrevenuefrompellets:$0.3bn (0.5%)
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• 44pelletplantsinCanada• 4 milliontonnes annualcapacity• 1milliontonnes newcapacity2015-16
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1 PinnacleRenewableEnergy2 PinnacleRenewableEnergy3 PinnacleRenewableEnergy4 PacificBioEnergy5 PremiumPellet6 PinnacleRenewableEnergy7 Canfor/PinnaclePellet8 Tolko/Pinnacle9 Canfor/PacificBioEnergy10 Canfor/PacificBioEnergy
PlanningStage: Newproannouncedconversionofaparticleboardplanttoproduce80,000TPYofpelletsinSmithers
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LoggingresiduesSawmillresidues
- sawdustandshavings- Typicallynotwoodchips
Pelletproducersoftentradewithpulpmills– barkinexchangeforsawdust/shavings
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Sources:HawkinsWright,REN21,FutureMetrics
1.7 2.2 2.64.0 5.2
7.69.7
11.714.5 15.7
18.3
22.4 23.626.1 27.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.02010to2015averageannualgrowth– 14%
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Sources:REN21GlobalStatusReport2016,HawkinsWright
TopEuropeanProducers:
GermanySwedenLatviaEstoniaFrancePortugal
Total– 27mn tonnes
USA,7.4
Canada,1.9Europe,
14.3
Russia,1.0
Vietnam,
1.1
ROW,1.4
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Source:HawkinsWright
• Europecontinuestodominate
• Europe’sheatsectorexceedsindustrialsector
NA
21% Asia
2% Europe73%
Russia4%
NA
1% Asia
13%
Europe86%
NA
12% Asia
8% Europe78%
Russia2%
Heating– 14mn tonnes
Total– 27mn tonnes
Industial – 13mn tonnes
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¡ 2009:RenewableEnergyDirective– 20-20-20targets
¡ 2010:NationalActionPlans¡ Nationalsupportschemes:greencertificates,contractsfordifference,renewableheatincentive
¡ 2014:ClimateandEnergyFrameworkfor2030– 40%GHGcutfrom1990,27%renewableenergy,27%improvementinenergyefficiency
DataSource:FutureMetrics
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Industrial Heat Total
Average4.8 mn tonnes peryearofgrowthAssumessomeco-firinginCanadaandUSAAfter2018,mostgrowthoccursinAsia
¡ EPHLynemouth,UK:645MW,2.5mn TPY¡ MGTTeeside,UK:299MW,1.6mn TPY¡ Langerlo,Belgium:420MW,1.0mn TPY¡ RWEAmer,NL:600MW,1.2mn TPY¡ Engie Maaslavke,NL,800MW,0.2mn TPY
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¡ KOSEPYeongdong,SK,125MW,0.6mn TPY¡ KOSPOSamcheok,SK,2,000MW,0.4mn TPY¡ NakayamaNagoya2,JPN,110MW,0.1mnTPY
¡ SomaKyodoJikahatsu,JPN,112MW,0.02mnTPY
¡ Orix Hibikinada,JPN112MW,0.1mn TPY
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983
107 62218 205 150
1,206
22880
205
86 49
1,820
230230 220
70 200
200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
UK Belgium Japan US Italy SKorea
2014 2015 2016(F)
¡ DemandinJapanandKoreaisgrowing¡ Policyuncertaintyremains.¡ Asia-PacificandRussianpelletproducershavetransportationadvantageoverNA
¡ Canadianshavequalityandreliabilityadvantage
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¡ Primarilyanindustrialmarket¡ Feed-in-tariffforIPPs– manyunderdevelopment
¡ Replacementofnuclearpowerbythermalcoalplantsandbiomassco-firing
¡ Consumeschips,PKS,andpellets¡ Preferenceforquality,reliabilityandlongtermcontracts= advantageforCanada
¡ Primarilyanindustrialmarket¡ Renewableportfoliostandard¡ Marketisgrowing¡ Priceisnumberoneconcern¡ Purchasesdominatedbytendering¡ ConsumebiomassSRFpellets¡ DominatedbyVietnam
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Vietnamese Production Plant
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Threat and Opportunity
¡ “Pan-CanadianFrameworkonCleanGrowthandClimateChange"
¡ Agreedtoin2016byfederalgovernment,provincesandterritories
¡ 2030target:30%GHGreductionfrom2005level
¡ Pricingcarbonpollution- $10pertonnein2018risingto$50pertonne in2022
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PDF version Cat. No.: En4-294/2016E-PDF ISBN: 978-0-660-07023-0
Photos: © Thinkstock, 2016
Aussi disponible en français
¡ Increaserenewableandnon-emittingelectricity(currently80%,ranked4th inworld)
¡ Phaseoutcoalpowerby2030(35milliontonnesofcoalperyear)
¡ Eliminatedieselpowergenerationinremotecommunities
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OPG’s240MWATkokanOntarioPlant
FullfiringonindustrialwoodpelletsConvertedfromcoal,nowfiringon100%woodpellets
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916PJ
766PJ
183PJ
60PJ 12PJ 12PJ
NaturalGas
Electricity
Oil
Firewood
WoodPellets
Propane&Other
ResidentialandCommercialHeatandHotWater
Total:2688PJ
¡ Heatingoil– 86centsperlitre,85%efficiency¡ Naturalgas– 27centspercubicmetre,85%efficiency
¡ Woodpellets- $300perton,85%efficiency¡ Electricity– 15.4centsperkWh,100%efficiency
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Source:Enbridgewebsite
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Sources:Enbridge,NationalEnergyBoard,WPACresearch
$8.52
$20.76
$27.55
$42.78
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
NaturalGas WoodPellets HeatingOil Electricity
$/GJ,adjustedforefficiency
¡ Canadianannualnon-gascommercialandresidentialheatandhotwaterenergyconsumptionis1,033,000,000gigajoules
¡ 1,033,000,000gigajoulesisequivalentto71milliontonsofwoodpellets.
¡ Canadacurrentlyproducesabout2.7milliontonsofwoodpellets
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¡ Theglobalwoodpelletindustryisgrowing¡ Intheshortterm,productioncapacityhasoutpaceddemand,thiswillbecorrectedby2018
¡ WillseecontinuedgrowthinEuropeandAsia¡ JapanismostinterestingAsianmarket¡ Significantpotentialdomesticpotential¡ Limitedcompetitionwithpulpsector¡ Jobsfromwoodwaste!
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Formoreinformation:
ContactGordonMurray
(250)837-8821
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