Status of risk analysis in the Dutch part of the North SeaHenk OffringaRijkswaterstaat National Institute for Coastal and Marine Management

Note To protect vulnerable marine and estuarine areasCapacity note 2006 2010 (issued 2006)

Indicates the extent of resources needed to combat pollution due to calamities at sea

Based on risk analysis

Risk analyses

Sources of pollutionIncidental discharges from: shipping, offshore installations, under water pipelines, harbour activities, aeroplane accidents and installations on shore;Shipping >>>>> offshore installations, under water pipelines, harbour activities, aeroplane accidents and installations on shore;

Crude oil >>>>> Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) and chemical substances

Top 10 of crude oils unloaded in RotterdamNameOriginVolume (Mton) 2000Arabian LightSaudi Arabia9,22Russian Export BlendRussia6,59OsebergNorway5,87Kuwait ExportKuwait5,33KirkkIraq4,23GullfaksNorway3,80Forties Great Britain3,70Arabian Extra Light Saudi Arabia2,84Arabian MediumSaudi Arabia 2,67AlbaGreat Britain2,2520044,4111,453,11,32

1,581,40,9 ~ 100 Mton

Risk = chance effect

Transport routes, approach

Example: result Rotterdam (crude)Almost all importMain origin:40% Dover strait30% Northern part of the North Sea24% Baltic

Amount of crude oil to Rotterdam

Amount of HFO to Rotterdam

Estimated passing ships with dangerous goods

Conclusion transportQuality is reasonable acceptable, but little is known on the exact routesPassing ships is not discernible with this methodPreliminary: shift in transport routes through Baltic

Further work: chance on collision and spillsCreated traffic databases are used within the SAMSON-model (Safety Assessment Model for Shipping and Offshore on the North Sea). Samson is run by MARIN

Determine the frequency of an oil spill and the expected size of the oil spill.

Report 2004, data 2000, update not available yet

Potential number of collisions between ships (regardless their cargo, year 2000)

Reported collisions 2000-2003

Potential frequency of an oil spill as a result of any accident at sea (year 2000)

Maximum amount of spilled oil that is expected to occur at least once every 10,000 year(based on traffic data year 2000)

Finally: ecological vulnerability maps

Ecological advice in operational contingency planningdimensionadvicetimeImmediate Look up

Discuss with colleagues

Call external experts

Monitoring / evaluation1 minute hour

1 hour

3 hours

3 days

3 weeks/months

Method

Substance Vulnerability Index

Scenario: medium crude oil (example)Based on 34 species

DilemmasDo we need more sophisticated and detailed maps?How do we value species in and outside SPAs and SACs Do we need harmonisation of existing maps?

Thank you

The national institute for coastal and marine management advices the people in operational response and develop tools to help understand the risks from pollution of the sea. The RIKZ cannot do this alone, but seeks collaboration with international partners. In this case we also participate in the Interreg project Safety at SeaIn 2006 the successor of the old ramplenplan Noordzee was issued. It was based on risk analyses, not only on the potential impacts of oil, but also on chemicals as well. Chemicals are transported in smaller volumes, but may have greater impactsThere are roughly 4 steps towards the assessment of the required resources. Risk analyses comprise roughly 3 steps. Prevention has high priority.Do not include illegal discharges, nor chronical pollution from rivers and atmospheric imputType of incidents (2000-2003): grounding>> collision, fire/explosion, and other calls for help, without pollutionImportant to note that we are easily tempted to focus on most transported substances, whilst the smaller ones could be just as dangerous

Crude oil is transported to different ports in the Netherlands. Most important in terms of volume is Rotterdam.

~ 100 MtonnesLight: 9.8 Mton (10%)Medium:80.3 Mton (81%)Heavy: 8.8 Mton (9%)

Connect voyage data to cargo data and plot this on a mapTo show that the previous graph makes sense, but also that they should not be taken too literallyNote the time span that is need to plot the chance on an oil spill of an Prestige calibreCandidate Marine Protected Areas, as mentioned in the Note on spatial planning 2004.Indicative criteria for the extend of capacity: Clear 15,000 m3 in 3 days in vulnerable areas at sea,5,000 m3 in 2 days in Scheldt3,000 m3 in 2 days in Wadden SeaDoes this map help you to decide which area should (e.g.) be cleaned first?No: no seasonal maps, and the resolution is not enough to take decisions locallySensitivity or vulnerabilty maps cannot be followed blindly (they give a rough interpretation, but never the actual situation), but at least help in the first minutes after the reporting of an incidentSelection of species that are protected by law or policy and species with a commercial valueBasically, what we are doing is accumulate distribution maps and multiple it with a factor that reflects the sensitivity to a substance

This method is:Practical in handling non existing knowledgeTransparantGeneric approach to different substancesFlexibleLink up with international terminology & methods (especially

It is a qualitive assessment of potential vulnerability and does not have the pretention to give a quantitative estimate of the damage to the ecosystem

Do the sophisticated maps justify the effort needed in terms of research and monitoring? (perhaps they are necessary for comparison with other aspects: economy, human health)