statistics 111 – lecture 25 urban analytics part 1stjensen/stat111/... · april 19, 2016 lecture...

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April 19, 2016 Lecture 25 - Urban Analytics 1 1

Urban Analytics Part 1

Statistics 111 – Lecture 25


Administrative Notes

•  Homework 7 posted. Due in recitation on Friday,

April 22


What is Urban Analytics? •  Quantitative analysis of the economic and social

functioning of local areas within large cities

•  Goals are to provide empirical support to inform public and private decisions in city development

•  We want to create empirical measures for concepts like urban vibrancy that have been difficult to quantify up to this point


Urban Analytics in Philadelphia •  We are particularly interested in the city of

Philadelphia, and not just because we all live here!

•  Interesting case study for contemporary issues in urban revival and gentrification

•  Also want to explore interaction between social and economic factors in a rapidly evolving city


Philadelphia over Time 1807 1900

Dense city designed for horse and buggy became increasingly unable to handle automobile traffic. Economic downturns lead to blighted areas of city.


Call for Urban Renewal •  Urban renewal was a 1950-60s response to a

perceived problem with population density and decaying buildings

•  Idea that older buildings caused blight or caused violence

•  Narrow lots of 19th century cities thought to be too restrictive: merging of narrow lots thought to be necessary for the future

•  Idea that automobiles were crucial and HAD to be accommodated by cities

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Early History of Urban Renewal •  Garden City Movement (1900’s)

•  Backlash in UK to polluted, crowded state of cities during the industrial revolution

•  Idea was to have multiple self-sufficient cities encircled with “green belts” of open space

•  Le Corbusier/ Modernism (1920’s): •  Took ideas from the Garden City Movement and

imagined a future where the main form of transportation was the automobile

•  Ville Contemporaine plan included demolishing a significant chunk of Paris to house 3 million people in blocks of 60 story skyscrapers.


Urban Renewal Propoganda •  The City (1939) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nuvcpnysjU Shown at 1939 Worlds Fair. Promotes suburban communities as cure for congestion of the city •  Our Changing City (1955)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpL6FhmTxg4 4:30 – 6:30, 10:35 – 11:10, 11:40 – 12:15

•  Dynamic American City (1956) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PydFzWfkdOw 9:45 – 10:15, 13:00 – 13:30


Urban Renewal Results

•  Analyses leading to urban renewal were data-driven •  some of the same aggregate associations they

observed still exist today •  e.g. associations between crime and race,

associations between crime and poverty

•  However, interpretations and actions of urban renewal were biased towards suburban strategies, automobiles and wholesale destruction of neighborhoods


Consequences of Urban Renewal •  Massive government funds for road and highway

development led to rapid expansion of the suburbs •  Wealthier demographics moved out of suburbs

which impoverised the tax base of urban centers

•  Properties seized from individuals in urban centers through eminent domain, and then destroyed for either road expansion or housing projects •  Housing projects led to increased segregation and

isolation of high poverty communities

•  In Philadelphia: Ben Franklin Parkway, Love Park

•  In West Village: Robert Moses proposed bulldozing 12 city blocks along with an 8 lane elevated highway


Jane Jacobs •  Death and Life of Great American Cities (1961)

•  Seminal book that challenged the culture of building cities around the automobile

“when we surrender to the automobile, we lose the web of city life”

•  Cities aren't really buildings, they are webs of

interactivity and relationships between people

•  Opposition to Robert Moses in the West Village: returned discussion from big land plans to individual streets and individual people


Jane Jacobs •  Vibrant streets are those that have a constant

succession of eyes on the street (shop owners, visibility from homes, etc)

"under the seeming disorder of the old city, wherever the old city is working successfully, is a marvelous order for maintaining the safety of the streets and the freedom

of the city”

•  Jane Jacobs’ key insight was that you have to observe associations at a high-resolution: individual people, individual streets, etc.

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Our Research •  Examine the recent trend in urban "revival":

movement back into the city

•  Big data explosion allows us to review and evaluate Jane Jacobs and other theories at a high-resolution level but across the entire city of Philadelphia

•  Joint work with: Rachel Thurston (Architect at Stantec), Colman Humphrey, and Dylan Small (Wharton Statistics)


Urban Data •  Crime: Philadelphia police has GPS location and

type of each crime committed over past 10 years

•  Economics: Census bureau has median income and poverty proportions for each census block group •  Block group = collection of 10-20 city blocks

•  Demographics: Census bureau has counts of each race within each census block group

•  Land Use: City of Philadelphia has zoning use (commercial, residential, etc) for each lot in the city

•  Businesses: Google has GPS location, type and open hours of each business in Philadelphia


Crime

All Crimes 2006-2015 (log scale) Violent Crimes 2006-2015 (log scale)


Economics

Median Income Proportion below 50% of Poverty Line


Demographics

Proportion White Proportion Black


Land Use

Zoning of Every Lot Proportion of Vacant Lots

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Crime vs. Economics Nonviolent Crime Violent Crime

Top Panels: Y = Crime X = Income Bottom Panels: Y = Crime X = Poverty


Crime vs. Demographics Nonviolent Crime Violent Crime

Top Panels: Y = Crime X = Segregation Bottom Panels: Y = Crime X = Prop Black


Crime vs. Land Use Nonviolent Crime Violent Crime

Top Panels: Y = Crime X = Prop of Vacant Lots Bottom Panels: Y = Crime X = Prop of Commercial vs. Residential


Crime Outlier: Market East Nonviolent Crime


Crime Outlier: Market East Violent Crime


Next Class: Urban Analytics 2

•  More investigation of association between crime, demographics, and land use

•  Exploring better measures for urban vibrancy

•  Looking at changes in crime over time in Philadelphia

•  Other contemporary issues in urban development

statistics 111 – lecture 25 urban analytics part 1stjensen/stat111/... · april 19, 2016 lecture...

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