State of Utah Long Term Projections Model SystemState of Utah Long Term Projections Model System

T. Ross ReeveGovernor’s Office of Planning and Budget

November 26, 2002

Utah Long Term ProjectionsUtah Long Term Projections Long term demographic & economic projections

program is housed at the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

Projections Website:http://www.governor.state.ut.us/dea/Projections/projections.html

Documentation: http://www.governor.state.ut.us/dea/publications/MODEL/Model.htm

OverviewOverview

UPED: Utah Process Economic & Demographic model has a 30 year legacy

Continuous Development Consistent Economic & Demographic Projections Employment Method is Both Top Down & Bottom Up:

Relates Utah’s projected inter-industry structure to that of the nation; SR-LR, events, industries

Baseline, Impact, & Scenario Analysis Capabilities

Regional Economic /

Demographic

Projection Model

GOPBGeographic

Information System

AGRC

Water

Supply/Demand

Model

DWR

Transportation

Planning Models

MPOs, UDOT

Air Quality Models

DAQ

Small Area Allocation Models MPOs, AOGs

Planning ModelsPlanning Models

Quality Growth Efficiency ToolsQuality Growth Efficiency Tools

State Agencies

Regional Planning Entities

Local Government

Public Utilities

IntegratesEconomic & Demographic Projections

Fiscal ImpactsGIS/Land Use

Air QualityTransportation Planning

Water Supply/Demand Projections

Coalition for Utah’s

Future

Utah Critical Land Conservation

Committee

Local Government

Plans

Regional Plans State Planning AgenciesFederal Agency Plans

Private Sector Plans

“Process to improve the quality of information available to decision makers to plan for Utah’s future.”

Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions

Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions

Southeast

Southwest

Central

Wasatch Front Uintah Basin

Bear River

Mountainland

Utah Planning DistrictsUPED Model RegionsUtah Planning DistrictsUPED Model Regions

Bear River: Box Elder, Cache, Rich Wasatch Front: Davis, Morgan, Salt Lake, Tooele, Weber Mountainland: Summit, Utah, Wasatch Central: Juab, Millard, Piute, Sanpete, Sevier, Wayne Southwest: Beaver, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Washington Uintah Basin: Daggett, Duchesne, Uintah Southeast: Carbon, Emery, Grand, San Juan

Projection ProcessProjection ProcessInternal External

Development

Production

Distribution

Data Series & Sources

Primary Empirical

Information

Professional Literature & Association

Market Research & User (Customer) Feedback

Model Estimation, Calibration & Projection DesignModel Estimation, Calibration & Projection Design

Data Lag

(Variable in Time)

Projection Interval

Estimation Interval

Complete Data Availability

Problem:

Estimate Parameters Using Variables

Partial Data Availability

Problem:

Estimate Some Parameters Using Variables Values; Calculate Some Variable Values Using Parameters

No Data Availability

Problem:

Calculate Variable Values Using Parameters

History 2000 Current Year Future

UPED Model System CapabilitiesUPED Model System Capabilities

Baseline Projection Impact Projection Self Calibration Historical Parameter Estimates Target or Goal Seeking Confidence Intervals

Data Preparation

Models

Database

Evaluation/ Interpretation / Presentation

Data Sources

Data Sets

Model System

Model System

Parameter & Exogenous Variable

Estimation & Projection

Data SourcesData Sources

Utah Population Estimates Committee

Bureau of Vital Records Department of Workforce

Services Board of Higher Education L.D.S. Church

Bureau of the Census Bureau of Economic

Analysis Bureau of Labor

Statistics

State Federal

UPED ModelParameters and VariablesUPED ModelParameters and Variables

Variables Produced Demographic Parameters Exogenous Basic Employment Variables Economic Parameters

Variables ProducedVariables Produced Population Temporarily Present

Non-Residents Temporarily Absent

Residents Births Deaths Natural Increase

Population Employment Related In

and Out Migration

Non-employment Related In-Migration

Non-Employment Related Out-Migration

Households Labor Force Residentiary Employment Total Employment

Note: Most Dimensioned by Age and Sex

UPED Model Major Demographic Parameters

UPED Model Major Demographic Parameters Birth Rates (age of mother) Survival Rates (age, sex) Non-employment Related Out-Migration Rates (age, sex) Non-employment Related In-Migration Growth Rates (age,

sex) Migration Propensities (age, sex) Household Headship Rates (age, sex of householder)

UPED Exogenous VariablesDimensioned by Industry and YearUPED Exogenous VariablesDimensioned by Industry and Year

Temporary Basic Employment Event Basic Employment Other Permanent Basic Employment

UPED ModelMajor Economic Parameters

UPED ModelMajor Economic Parameters

Labor Force Participation Rates (age, sex) Residentiary Demand Relatives (industry) Relative Demand Parameters (age, industry) Multiple Job Holding Rate Net Out-Commutation Rate Equilibrium Unemployment Rate

Model System ModelsModel System Models

Utah Process Economic and Demographic Model (UPED)

Utah County Allocation of Population & Employment Model (UCAPE)

County Age and Sex Allocation Model (CASA)

UPED Model General Flowchart

UPED Model General Flowchart

Population in Year t-1

Age & Survive; Births & Non- Employment Related In-Migration

Adjusted Natural Increase Population

Non-Employment Related Out-Migration & Employment Related Net In-Migration in Year t

Population in Year t

Labor Market

Population Dependent Job Opportunities in

Year t

Labor Force in Year t Total Job Opportunities in

Year t

Basic Job Opportunities in Year t

RecursiveIterativeDirect Model Components

Inputs & Outputs

UPED Labor Market: Supply & Demand for JobsUPED Labor Market: Supply & Demand for Jobs

)(*

)1)(1(

)(

)(

))1)(1*)(1((

LuU

SDXD

LcdD

PlL

PrBS

rlcdu

BP

Where:P is Population (persons)B is Basic Employment (jobs)S is Total Employment (supply of jobs)L is Labor Force (persons)U is Unemployed Labor Force (persons)D is Demand for Jobs (jobs)XD is Excess Demand for Jobs (jobs)u* is Equilibrium Unemployment Rate l is Labor Force Participation Rated is Multiple Job Holding Ratec is Net Out-Commutation Rater is Residentiary demand relative

UPED EmploymentUPED Employment

Production for Regional Consumption

Direct & Indirect

Production for Export

Direct & Indirect

Residentiary Employment (REDi)

Total Employment (TEDi)

Basic Employment (BEDi)

Permanent Basic

Employment (BEDPi)

Temporary Basic

Employment (BEDTi)

Change in Permanent Basic

For Event or Impact (BEDPACi or

BEDCACi)

Growth Rate of Permanent Basic

For Baseline (BEDPGi or BEDPGRi)

= If Baseline

Determinants of the Demand for Residentiary Employment Determinants of the Demand for Residentiary Employment

Permanent Basic Employment in the

Region

Temporary Basic Employment in the

Region

In-Region Consumer Demand

for Goods & Services

Local Market for Consumer Goods &

Services

Consumer Goods & Services Produced Outside the Region

Locally Produced Consumer Goods &

Services

Competition$ $

Residentiary Employment to Produce Locally Demanded Consumer Goods

& ServicesRelates the region’s projected changes in productivity and consumption to that of the nation.Captures unique regional industrial structure, consumption patterns, and age structure.

UCAPE Model General FlowchartUCAPE Model General Flowchart

Historical county population & employment by industry

Allocate industry employment to counties using Bayesian Maximum

Likelihood Procedure

UPED MCD projections of population & employment

Selection of industry employment locational

hypothesis

Allocate industry employment to counties using selected

hypothesis

Allocate population to counties

CASA Model General FlowchartCASA Model General Flowchart

UPED regional variables & parameters

UCAPE total population by

county

Previous year’s county

population by age & sex

Allocation of MCD temporarily absent residents & present

non-residents

Allocation of MCD births &

deaths

Allocation of MCD employment related

net in-migration

Allocation of MCD non-employment related in & out

migration

County population projection by age & sex

Allocation of MCD households to county level

Labor Force Participation RatesLabor Force Participation Rates

Households (by Age and Sex of Household Head)

Households (by Age and Sex of Household Head)

Visualization: Geographic Distribution of Utah’s Population Across TimeVisualization: Geographic Distribution of Utah’s Population Across Time