state of the vitivinicultural world in 2020

STATE OF THE VITIVINICULTURAL WORLDIN 2020

INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATION OF VINE AND WINE

Pau Roca Director General of the OIVOIV Press Conference20 April 2021

Topics▪ State of the world vitivinicultural sector in 2020

• Vineyard Surface Area• Wine Production• Wine Consumption• International Trade of Wine

▪ Southern Hemisphere Wine Production: First Estimates 2021▪ Covid-19 and the Wine Sector: Looking Ahead

Vineyard Surface Area


The world area under vines, corresponding to the total surface area planted with vines for all purposes (wine, table grapes and raisins), including young vines not yet in production, is estimated at 7.3 mha in 2020. The world vineyard has stabilised since 2017, mainly thanks to the slow down of the Chinese vineyard’s growth and the implementation of the system of new planting authorisation in the EU, which stand for the fifth consecutive year at 3.2 mha. The current stabilisation, however, hides heterogeneous evolutions in different regions of the world.

Evolution of world vineyard surface area

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

mha

7.3 mha- 0,2 %/2019


Top 6 vine-growing countries represent 56 % of the world vineyard surface area in 2020

Breakdown of vineyard surface area in 2020

World vineyard distribution in 2020

Spain13% France

11%

China11%

Italy10%

Turkey6%

USA5%

Other countries44%


*Carried over from latest available data

Major vine-growing countries by surface area, 2010-2020

961

797 785 719

431 405

215 207 194 190

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

Spain France China Italy Turkey USA Argentina Chile Portugal Romania

kha

167 151 146 140 122 112 109 103 96 96

0

100

200

300

Iran* India* Australia Moldova South Africa Uzbekistan* Greece* Germany* Russia Afghanistan*

kha

Wine production

Wine Production

In 2020 world wine production, excluding juices and musts, is estimated at 260 mhl, marking an increase of 2.5 mhl compared to the 2019 production.After two consecutive years that can be defined as extremely volatile in 2017 and 2018, global wine production in 2020 is for the second consecutive year slightly below the average observed in the last twenty years.

Evolution of world wine production

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

mhl

260 mhl+1% /2019

Wine Production

Three countries - Italy, France and Spain - account for more than halfof the world production.Top 8 wine producing countries vinified 77% of all wine produced in 2020. EU: 165 mhl in 2020 (+8%/2019), 63% of world total

World wine production distribution in 2020

Breakdown of wine production in 2020

Italy19%

France18%

Spain16%

USA9%

Argentina4%

Australia4%

Chile4%

South Africa4%

Other countries

23%

World wine production

49.1 46.640.7

22.8

10.8 10.6 10.4 10.3 8.4 6.6 6.4 4.4 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.80

10

20

30

40

50

60

Italy France Spain USA Argentina Australia SouthAfrica

Chile Germany China Portugal Russia Romania NewZealand

Hungary Austria Greece Brazil Georgia

mhl

2020/2019 % Var.

3%

11%

21%

-11%-17%

-11%

7%

-13%

2%

-16%

-2% -4% -7%

11%

-12%

-3%-6% -5%

2%

Italy France Spain USA Argentina Australia SouthAfrica

Chile Germany China Portugal Russia Romania NewZealand

Hungary Austria Greece Brazil Georgia

Main wine producing countries in 2020

Wine Consumption

Wine Consumption

World wine consumption in 2020 is estimated at 234 mhl marking a significant decrease of 3% compared to 2019; this year-over year fall of 7 mhl is analogous to the one seen during the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

The first year of the COVID-19 sanitary crisis highlighted asymmetrical aggregate consumption behaviours in different countries in the world.

NB: a notable revision in Chinese wine consumption has made China the key driver in lowering consumption levels in the last few years

Evolution of world wine consumption

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

255

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

mhl

234 mhl-3% /2019

Wine Consumption

Breakdown of wine consumption in 2020

Wine consumed in 200 countries. First 5 countries account for almost 50% of the world, while the top 10 countries represent 70% in 2020.

World wine consumption distribution in 2020

USA14%

France11%

Italy10%

Germany8%UK

6%China5%

Russia4%

Spain4%

Argentina4%

Australia2%

Other countries

30%

33.0

24.7 24.519.8

13.3 12.4 10.3 9.6 9.45.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.1

05

101520253035

mhl

Wine Consumption

0% 0%

8%

0%

-17%

2% 3%

-7%

7%

-4%-1%

-6%

18%

-2% 0% -1%

-19%

-2% -3%

2%

-2%

2%

2020/2019 % Var.

Main wine consuming countries in 2020

Wine Consumption

* Countries with total wineconsumption in 2019 equal to or above 2 mhl

Top countries* by total consumption (mhl) in 2020

2.12.22.32.62.6

3.13.53.53.8

4.34.44.6

5.79.49.6

10.312.4

13.319.8

24.524.7

33.0

Czech RepublicSwedenAustria

BelgiumSwitzerland

South AfricaJapan

NetherlandsRomania

BrazilCanada

PortugalAustralia

ArgentinaSpainRussiaChina

UKGermany

ItalyFrance

USA

mhl

*Countries with consumption above 2 mhl

Consumption per capita +15 (l) in top consuming* countries

1.02.63.1

7.48.6

12.213.9

23.823.223.523.924.2

26.927.027.527.627.8

29.935.7

46.046.6

51.9

ChinaBrazilJapan

South AfricaRussia

USACanada

UKCzech Republic

RomaniaSpain

NetherlandsBelgiumSweden

GermanyArgentinaAustralia

AustriaSwitzerland

FranceItaly

Portugal

l/ capita

International Trade of Wine

International Wine Trade

Disturbing the incremental growth path started in 2010, the global value of wine exports in 2020 decreased by -6.7% compared to 2019 reaching 29.6 bn EUR.

In 2020, notwithstanding a slight decrease (-1.7%) with respect to 2019, global volume exports with 105.8 mhl is in line with the last five-year average.

Evolution of world wine export by volume

Evolution of world wine export by value

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

mhl

105.8 mhl-1.7% / 2019

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

bn EUR

29.6 bn EUR -6.7% / 2019

International Trade of Wine

Breakdown of global trade value in 2020

Bottled (<2 l)53%

Sparkling9%

BiB4%

Bulk (>10 l)34%

Breakdown of global trade volume in 2020

Bottled (<2 l)70%Sparkling

19%

BiB2%

Bulk (>10 l)9%

0

20

40

60

80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020Prel.

mhl

Bottled (<2 l) Sparkling BiB Bulk (>10 l)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018Prov.

2020

Bn €


-Bottled wines decreased in volume (-2%) and for the first time since 2000, in value (-6% )

-A sharp decline was observed for sparklingwines which decreased by 5% in volume and 15% in value

-BiB was the only category that expanded massively, with an increase in volume (+12%) and in value (+8%)

-Bulk wine exports remained unchanged in terms of volume and increased by 4% in value

Main Wine Exporters

FRA: -11%ITA : -2%ESP: -3%AUS: -2%CHL: -7%USA: -9%NZL: +5%DEU: -16%PRT: +3%ARG: -4%

Top 10 by value

20.8 20.2

13.68.5 7.5

4.0 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.1

0

10

20

30

Italy Spain France Chile Australia Argentina USA South Africa Germany Portugal

mhl 2019 2020

Top 10 by volume

8.7

6.2

2.61.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

France Italy Spain Australia Chile USA New Zealand Germany Portugal Argentina

bn €2019 2020

ITA : -2%ESP: -6%FRA: -5%CHL: -2%AUS: +1%ARG: +27%USA: +2%ZAF : -12%DEU: -10%PRT: +5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

France Italy Spain Australia Chile USA New Zealand Germany Portugal Argentina

bn €


0

5

10

15

20

25

Italy Spain France Chile Australia Germany USA South Africa Argentina Portugal

mhl


Main Wine Exporters

Among the top 10 exporters by volume:

Top bottled →Italy, France, Spain

Top sparkling → Italy, France, Spain

Top bulk → Spain, Australia, Italy

Top BiB →Germany, Italy, Spain

Among the top 10 exporters by value:

Top bottled → France, Italy, Spain

Top sparkling → France, Italy, Spain

Top bulk → Italy, Spain, France

Top BiB→ Spain, Australia, New Zealand

Top 10 by value

Top 10 by volume

Main Wine Importers

USA: -11%GBR: +4%DEU: -2%CAN: -1%JPN: -15%NLD: +9%BEL: -2%RUS: -9%FRA: -12%

14.6 14.112.3

6.34.7 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.0 2.7

0

5

10

15

20

UK Germany USA France Netherlands Canada China Russia Belgium Portugal

mhl2019 2020

Top 10 by volume

5.23.8

2.61.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8

0

2

4

6

8

USA UK Germany Canada China Japan Netherlands Belgium Russia France

bn EUR2019 2020

Top 10 by value

GBR: +4%DEU: -5%USA: 0%FRA: -14%NLD: +11%CAN: +8%CHN: -30%RUS: -21%BEL: -4%PRT: -8%

Main Wine Importers

Among the top 10 importers by volume:

Top bottled →UK, USA, Germany

Top sparkling → UK, USA, Germany

Top bulk → Germany, UK, France

Top BiB → Sweden, Germany, France

Among the top 10 importers by value:

Top bottled → USA, UK, Germany

Top sparkling → USA, UK, Japan

Top bulk → UK, Germany, USA

Top BiB→ Sweden, Germany, UK

Top 10 by value

Top 10 by volume

Market Internationalisation Index

45%

This market internationalisation index is constructed as the ratio between the volumes of world wine exports and world wine consumption.

In 2020, the wine market internationalisation index is at 45%, meaning that on average in 2020, of every 2 bottles of wine consumed in the world about 1 has crossed (at least) one border, that is almost half the wine consumed in the world is imported wine.

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Prov.

2020Prel.

Market internationalisation index

Wine Production in Southern HemisphereFirst estimates 2021

Southern Hemisphere Wine Production 2021

Prov.

2020

Prel.

2021

Trend

2021

% Var.

21-20 Trend 2000-2021

Argentina 10 796 10 106 -6.4%

Australia 10 600 12 553 18.4%

Brazil 1 923 3 300 71.6%

Chile 10 337 11 888 15.0%

New Zealand 3 290 3 000 -8.8%

South Africa 10 425 10 500 0.7%

Uruguay 700 710 1.4%

The impact of Covid 19 on the Wine sector

Looking Ahead

Impact of Covid-19 on the Wine sector: Key Trends

1. Heterogeneous consumption behaviours in 2020 across countries depending on:• Consumption habits (weight of wine over total alcoholic beverages, weight of Horeca channel, etc.)• Length and strictness of lockdown measures and associated policies such as sales bans• Weight of tourism in national wine consumption

2. Distribution channel shift:• Full or partial closure of the Horeca channel causing a fall in sales in value, and to a lesser extent in volume.• Increase in wine sales via e-commerce and large retailers, only partially compensating the losses caused by the closure of the

Horeca channel

3. Volume vs value: premium wine suffered the most from the closure of restaurants and tasting rooms, while large producers that owned the off-premise channel with large partner wholesalers performed well

4. Sparkling wine is the category of wines that suffered the most (champagne shipments -18% in volume, 1 billion euros of losses), barring Prosecco (+4% in export vol, -3% in export value). Contrarily, bag-in-box wine sales have experienced a sharp increase in sales volume and value in US, UK, Japan and Scandinavian countries

5. Shifts in global trade patterns due to:• Reaction of a decrease in global demand due to Covid-19 crisis• New trade barriers (US retaliatory tariffs, China tariffs on Australian wine, Brexit)

Impact of Covid-19 on the Wine Sector: Challenges Ahead

The new “normality” will be different from what we left: the lessons learned from this crisis will shape the future of the sector

Wine producers

• Diversification of markets and distribution channels• Integration of online and offline services• Data and technology• Resilience and adaptability

Governments

• Wine intrinsically deep-rooted in our culture, wine making needs to be considered as an essential activity• After a crisis there are losers and winners, wineries relying on the HoReCa channel, not linked to large distribution channels and not

able to sell via e-commerce need support.• Sustainability• Digitalisation• Anti – alcohol policies• International cooperation

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION


state of the vitivinicultural world in 2020

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