State of the North Carolina Workforce

An Assessment of the State’s Labor Force Demand and Supply

2007 – 2017

Today

Background for the report Share data from the report Gain your input on policy focus areas and

implications – How should our state respond to the findings in

terms of future policy development and state-level action?

Study Process

Led by the Commission’s Policy Research and Assessment Committee (PRAC)

Commissioned quantitative research of the state’s workforce and economic conditions

– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

Utilized multiple data sources Validated data across multiple stakeholders

prior to writing report

The Intent of the Study

Analyze labor market demand and supply trends and forecasts 2007-2017

Determine the appropriate geographic units for study

Assess education and workforce system gaps in meeting labor market demand

Identify most critical policy challenges and opportunities

Study Outcomes

2007-17 labor market demand and supply projections for NC and sub-regions

Key issues likely to arise IF current trends continue and no major economic shifts occur

Provides facts to help guide policy choices

The Project Authors

John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community Strategic Planning CSW is a national private non-profit consulting firm based in Ann

Arbor, Michigan, founded in 1991 (www.skilledwork.org)

Mission: Re-imagine everything about work and learning in

the global economy to have a competitive workforce advantage.

Dr. Kenneth Poole – President, Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with George Mason University and ACCRA—the Council for Community & Economic Research based in Arlington, Virginia, established in 2000 (www.creconline.org)

Mission: Promote knowledge-based regional economic development efforts

Key Trends Found In The Report

8 Key Trends

Key Trends

1. Traditional manufacturing continues to shed jobs as part of an on-going economic transition

2. Traditional “middle jobs” — those that paid a family-sustaining wage and required minimal formal education or training — are disappearing as part of this transition

3. New job creation is concentrating in certain fast-growing metropolitan areas

4. Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering from the economic transformation

Key Trends

5. Future prosperity depends on achieving higher educational attainment levels for all citizens

6. Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled workers

7. High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but not all, of this skills gap

8. Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities and challenges in meeting the state’s workforce needs

The Data

Facts and Figures That Support The Trends

Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

North Carolina’s Primary Regions

Mountain regionPiedmont regionCoastal region

Asheville1

Hickory2

Charlotte3

Winston-Salem4

Greensboro5

Durham6

7 Raleigh8 Fayetteville9 Rocky Mount

10 Wilmington

11 Greenville12 New Bern

2005 Population Estimates

Piedmont: 5.3 million

Coast: 2.4 million

Mountains: 1.1 million*Source: Estimate based on 2000Census and 2004 data from AGSDemographics

95

12

3

4 56

7

8

9

12

10

11

9540

85

77

26

40

40

85

Miles0 70

The Golden Crescent Provides The State’s Economic Engine

Source: Regional Dynamics Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness

Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC

Asheville, NC

Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir, NC

Winston-Salem, NC

Greensboro-High Point, NC

Burlington, NC

Durham, NC

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Fayetteville, NC

Goldsboro, NC

Jacksonville, NC

Greenville, NC

Rocky Mount, NC

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC

Wilmington, NC

Metropolitan Area

Micropolitan Area50K

200K

600K

Industry Employment

Industry Employment in North CarolinaMetropolitan and Micropolitan Areas (est. 2007)

*Employment for North Carolina counties only**Only metropolitan areas identified

Projected Population Growth, 2007 to 2017

7.8%

10.2%

3.9%

14.5%

2.3%

4.4%

7.3%

17.5%

7.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

U.S. NorthCarolina

AdvantageWest

Charlotte EasternRegion

Northeast PiedmontTriad

ResearchTriangle

Southeast

Source: AGS Demographics

Pro

ject

ed G

row

th

NC Industry 2007 2017Emp. Change

2007-17 % ChangeTobacco Processing 8,189 5,218 -2,970 -36%Textiles 74,617 47,670 -26,947 -36%Apparel 26,152 10,661 -15,491 -59%Furniture and Wood Products 99,121 107,520 8,399 8%Select Traditional Industries 208,079 171,070 -37,010 -18%Source: Regional Dynamics

The State’s Traditional Manufacturing Industries Will Likely Shed More Workers

These 4 industries currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs

NC’s Industry Employment Trends

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Government

Other Services

Leisure & Hospitality

Education & Health Services

Professional & Business Services

FIRE

Information

Transportation & Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Construction

Natural Resources and Minerals

Percent of Total Industry Employment

2007

2017

Projected Employment*

2007 = 5,152,000

2017 = 5,851,000

*Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt & Proprietors

Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower Than The Rest Of The State

Labor Force Growth and Employment Growth,2000 to 2005

5.1%

3.4%

6.4%

4.7%

1.5%

-0.1%

2.9%

1.8%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

Labor Force Growth 2000 to 2005 Employment Growth 2000 to 2005

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

2000

to

200

5 G

row

th

North Carolina

Metro

Micro

Rural

Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005

State Earnings Trail The Nation Even In Prosperous Areas

RegionTotal Est.

Employment 2007Est. Net New

Employment 2007-17Average Earnings

2007United States 179,670,548 30,284,512 $44,815North Carolina 5,152,411 698,247 $39,953

METRO Area Counties 3,840,922 573,283 $42,784MICRO Area Counties 969,766 91,029 $32,836RURAL Area Counties 341,723 33,934 $27,944

NC Mountains 570,821 70,917 $31,561NC Piedmont 3,290,455 474,831 $43,075NC Coast 1,291,135 152,498 $35,706Source: Regional Dynamics

“Success Favors The Prepared Mind” NTHS

Educational Band Emp 2007Net New Jobs

(07-17)Average Earnings

2007% Total Emp

(2007)% New Jobs

(07-17)Advanced Degree 160,572 36,560 $83,785 3.2% 5.3%4-year College Degree 687,536 134,808 $77,005 13.7% 19.7%Tech-Some Post 386,614 89,452 $46,774 7.7% 13.1%GED Some Experience 801,703 58,980 $42,952 15.9% 8.6%GED/Entry 1,263,563 88,085 $34,123 25.1% 12.9%Below GED 1,732,747 276,598 $24,405 34.4% 40.4%Total 5,032,734 684,484 $40,598 100.0% 100.0%Source: Regional Dynamics

North Carolina

NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)

Educational Attainment In the US and North Carolina (est. 2007)

Total Population

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Advanced Degree 4 Year Degree Associate degree Some college, nodegree

High schoolgraduate/GED

Less Than HSDiploma

Perc

en

t o

f P

op

ula

tio

n 2

5 a

nd

ab

ove

US

NC

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, AGS Demographics

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

AdvancedDegree

4-year CollegeDegree

Tech-Some Post GED SomeExperience

GED/Entry Below GED

Education Band

Per

cen

t o

f T

ota

l New

Em

plo

ymen

t (2

007-

17)

USA

NC

A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force

Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017

NC Net New Jobs Total = 690K

‘Disappearing’

Traditional Middle Jobs

‘New Middle’

Jobs

In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities

-1,157

-946

-462

-393

-143

45

71

558

2,194

10,091

-3,000 -1,500 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 9,000 10,500 12,000

Greenville

Greensboro-Winston-Salem-High Point

Fayetteville

Wilmington

Rocky Mount

Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir

Goldsboro

Asheville

Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill

Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill

Net Number of Young, Single, College Educated In-migrants (1995-2000)

Source: US Census Bureau

In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population Density, 1990

In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges & Opportunities

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population

1 Dot = 20

CoastalPiedmontMountains

Hispanic Population Density, 2000

North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage

*Annual estimate calculated from data provided by the US Census Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to 2017 Regional Dynamics

Changes in Workforce Demands Annual Number To Replace Retiring Workers 60,795 To Fill Projected Net New Jobs 69,825Total Change in Workforce Demand 130,620Changes in Workforce Supply New Young NC Talent 91,253 In-Migrants, aged 18-54 (assuming all join labor market) 26,760Total Change in Workforce Supply 118,013Annual Talent Shortage* -12,607

Questions and Discussion

State of the North Carolina Workforce

Input

As you listened to the report’s trends, reviewed the policy focus areas and related policy implications and questions:

– What is your reaction to the policy implications and questions of the six focus areas?

– Within each focus area, are there specific policy issues you think we should address or emphasize?

– Have we missed anything you consider a significant policy issue?

– Your thoughts and opinions!!!

Next Steps

PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop policy recommendations for the Commission’s and Governor’s consideration based on report and forum feedback– Coordination of the policy workgroups

Gain stakeholder input Refine policy questions Develop potential policy solutions Delivery recommendations to the Commission

by July

Next Steps

The Policy Workgroups’ Focus Valuing Education and Life-long learning

– improving educational attainment Changing Industry

– Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector strategies) Geographic Disparities

– Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions Compared to the Piedmont (overcoming the two North Carolinas)

– Rural, small town, and urban Changing Workforce Demographics

– baby boomer retirements and in-migration of low-skilled workers)

PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com

Later Questions and Comments

Paul Combs – Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee– combsjp@bellsouth.net

Heidi Stieber– Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment Committee– hstieber@nccommerce.com – 919.715.6658

John Metcalf– Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW)– jmetcalf@skilledwork.org– 704-814-8999

Ken Poole– Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness (CREC)– kpoole@c2er.org– 703-522-4980, ext. 16

Thank You