state of the nation - home - british future

State of the Na*on 2014 The year of iden*ty

Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future

The State of the Na-on survey

•  Polling was conducted on behalf of Bri-sh Future by Ipsos MORI from 6-‐11 December 2013

•  We surveyed a representa-ve sample of 2,244 online adults aged 16-‐75 in Great Britain, including 394 people in Scotland and 106 in Wales.

•  Surveys were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of the popula-on.

2014: keep calm and carry on •  Green shoots of (fragile) economic op-mism – so George Osborne’s

budget is Britons’ key moment of 2014. •  UK to survive: Only 1 in 5 Scots think Salmond will win

independence vote. •  Euro elec-on: Farage fans say UKIP mostly a protest vote •  Scep-cal Brits s-ll a long way from EU exit, but want Cameron to

secure a be]er deal •  Bulgarians and Romanians welcomed by most if they make the

effort to work and fit in •  Britain unites for solemn First World War centenary – rejec-ng calls

for both victory celebra-on or for no commemora-on at all. •  But England fans stop dreaming of World Cup glory -‐ while

Commonwealth games and Six Na-ons rugby are top sports events for Scotland and Wales.

Who do we think we are? England

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? -‐ England

More English than Bri-sh 34% (18% 'English not Bri-sh')

Equally English and Bri-sh 38%

More Bri-sh than English 22%

Don't know 6%

Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future (Dec 2013). England base size 1,744

Who do we think we are? Scotland

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? -‐ Scotland

More Scofsh than Bri-sh 49% (24% 'Scofsh not Bri-sh')

Equally Scofsh and Bri-sh 31%

More Bri-sh than Scofsh 19%

Don't know 2% Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future (Dec 2013). Scotland base size 394

Who do we think we are? Wales

Which, if any, best describes how you see yourself? -‐ Wales

More Welsh than Bri-sh 42% (15% 'Welsh not Bri-sh')

Equally Welsh and Bri-sh 22%

More Bri-sh than Welsh 35%

Don't know 2% Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future (Dec 2013). Wales base size 106

Personal op*mism, na*onal anxie*es

14

29

36

50

38

29

36

28

42

39

25

20

Europe

Britain

Place I live

Personal/family

Will 2014 be a good or bad year

Op-mis-c Neither Pessimis-c

Anxious but hopeful about the economy: op*mism rising as pessimism falls

9

19

29

74

50

40

2012 2013 2014

Op-mis-c Neither Pessimis-c

Economic op*mism: a ques*on of poli*cs – and class NET Op*mi

st Pessimist

Neither

Men -‐8 31 39 27

Women -‐14 27 41 29

AB + 4 39 35 -‐ 26

C1 -‐ 15 27 42 -‐ 28

C2 -‐ 15 26 41 -‐ 29

DE -‐ 20 23 43 -‐ 30

Conserva-ve +48 62 14 23

Labour -‐ 37 19 56 24

LibDem +12 41 29 30

UKIP -‐ 38 17 55 28

Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future (Dec 2013)

Its gloomier up north – as south looks up Econ Family Place Britain Europe

Men -‐8 +28 +8 -‐ 10 -‐ 29

Women -‐14 +31 +15 -‐ 10 -‐ 26

England -‐ 11 +29 +11 -‐ 10 -‐ 28

Scotland -‐ 12 +30 +18 -‐ 12 -‐ 27

Wales -‐ 21 +35 +14 -‐ 11 -‐ 28

London -‐ 11 +25 +15 -‐5 -‐ 24

North -‐ 22 +29 +3 -‐20 -‐ 32

Midlands -‐ 7 +28 +5 -‐12 -‐ 33

South -‐ 1 +33 +22 0 -‐ 19

Ipsos MORI for Bri-sh Future (Dec 2013)

One na*on? Our year of (mul-ple) iden--es

State of the Na-on 2014

Which 2014 events maOer most to you personally?

10

2

8

38

13

11

72

11

32

20

11

10

10

17

23

16

24

47

20

14

25

24

13

18

24

23

33

19

11

11

13

16

22

22

23

45

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

None

European Elec-ons

Rugby Six Na-ons

Commonwealth Games

Centenary WW1

Romania and Bulgaria immigra-on

Scofsh referendum

Football World Cup

The budget

GB Welsh English Scofsh

Which 2014 events most affect how you feel about Britain?

15

6

4

37

13

29

62

5

29

25

13

7

13

18

29

22

13

31

22

15

29

15

14

29

26

5

35

24

12

8

15

18

29

25

12

31

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

None

European Elec-ons

Rugby Six Na-ons

Commonwealth Games

Centenary WW1

Romania and Bulgaria immigra-on

Scofsh referendum

Football World Cup

The budget


Not ‘one na-on’ in 2014 (Based on ques-on “Which three events ma]er most to you personally”)

England Scotland Wales

1st The budget 47% Scofsh referendum 72%

The budget 33%

2nd World Cup football 24%

Commonwealth Games 38%

Rugby six na-ons 25%

3rd Romania/Bulgaria 23%

The budget 32% Scofsh referendum 24%

4th WW1 centenary 17%

WW1 centenary 13% Commonwealth Games 24%

5th Scofsh referendum 16%

World Cup football 11% and Romania and Bulgaria immigra-on 11% (-ed)

World Cup football 23%

January Immigra*on from Romania and

Bulgaria State of the Na-on 2014

What we expect Romanians and Bulgarians who come here to do

6 2 2 1 4

20 29

48 64

69

Don't know Nothing -‐ will never be accepted

Nothing -‐ shouldn't have to do anything Support Bri-sh spor-ng teams

Celebrate Bri-sh customs Make friends outside their community

Spend money in Britain, not send it home Not claim benefits

Get a job and pay taxes Learn English language

Q: "What are the most important things EU migrants can do to be accepted?"

Minimum standards and benefits ma]er more than in/out ques-ons

9

2

2

18

22

26

24

63

45

Don't know

Other

Shouldn't do anything

Advice to promote integra-on

Support areas with higher immigra-on

Leave EU if rules don't change

Stay in EU but try to change rules

Restrict benefits that people from other

Enforce minimum wage

Q: "How should the UK government respond to immigra-on from Romania and Bulgaria ?"

A worried, yet welcoming, na*on?

Agree 68%

Disagree 13%

Neither 15%

Romanians and Bulgarians coming to Britain have got to learn the language, work hard and pay taxes, fit in and be part of the community. If they do that we should

welcome them to the UK

Britain in Europe and the European

Elec*ons State of the Na-on 2014

How much Europe do we want?

28%

38%

8%

6%

3%

17%

Britain's longterm policy should be …

Leave the EU

Stay and try to reduce EU powers

Leave things as they are

Stay in EU and try to increase EU powers

Work towards single European government

Don't know

Most prefer EU renego*a*on to exit – but UKIP supporters think its *me to get out.

29

57

4 3 1 6

19

41

14 10 5

11 22

43

15 11 3 6

73

19

2 1 1 4

28 38

8 6 3

17

Leave EU Stay in, reduce powers

Leave as they are

Stay in, increase powers

Single European

government

Don’t know

Do you think Britain’s long-‐term policy should be …

Conserva-ve Labour LibDem UKIP All

Most UKIP voters say May 2014 is a protest message Q: Which of the following reasons describes why you vote for the

party you choose in the European elec:on?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Party with the best policies to run Britain

Party with the best policies on

Europe

Send a message to other par-es

that I'm unhappy

Other

Conserva-ve

Labour

UKIP

LibDem

Green

June-‐July The World Cup


Who will you support in the World Cup?

13

15

10

20

37

53

1

4

7

31

27

8

5

13

41

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

England

Whoever plays England

Another team

Nobody -‐ will watch as neutral

Nobody -‐ won't watch

Welsh English Scofsh

50 years of hurt – how England fans stopped dreaming Q: How far will England get in the World Cup?

27

32

26

11

2

1

1

25

26

24

16

4

2

3

29

29

20

17

2

1

1

26

27

24

15

4

1

2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Don't know

Knocked out in first round

Second Round

Quarter-‐final

Semi-‐final

Final

Win


How far will England get? (All GB respondents, excluding 26% who answered “Don’t know”)

36

32

21

6

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Knocked out in first round

Second Round

Quarter-‐final

Semi-‐final

Final

Win

August The first world war centenary


A solemn commemora*on, not victory pride

Proud commemora-on of victory in just

war 22%

Remembrance of loss of life and na-onal reflec-on

59%

No commemora-on of unnecessary

war 6%

How should Britain mark the centenary of the first world war in 2014?

September Scotland votes


Should Scotland be an independent country?*

50

43

49

44

19

19

32

20

28

29

10

27

4

9

9

9

Wales

England

Scotland

GB

Disagree Agree Neither Don't know

Voters across Britain want Scotland to stay in the Union – Scots themselves are the least likely to s-ll be on the fence.

Can you predict the Scots’ referendum result?

20

24

22

24

56

47

58

48

24

29

20

28

Wales

England

Scotland

GB

Remain in UK Vote for independence

Three-‐quarters of Scots who express a view think there will be a No vote.

The impact of independence

•  47% of Britain say whole country weaker if Scotland leaves

•  57% of Scots say UK weaker without Scotland (vs 45% of English) .

•  50% of Scots think Scotland will be weaker if it leaves UK; 34% think they’ll be stronger

•  60% of English think an independent Scotland would be a weaker country; 31% of them think England would be weaker if Scotland leu the UK.

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