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TRANSCRIPT
State Budget Process
• September – process begins with revenue estimating
• November 1st - agencies begin submitting budget requests
• Budget Office staff receive and analyze requests
• November/December – meetings with agencies to discuss their budgets
• Late December/Early January - discuss priorities with the Governor and
begin to formulate early drafts of the budget
• Follow up meetings are held with agencies as necessary
• The Governor holds meetings with legislative leadership to get their input on
policy matters
• Final decisions are made by the Governor up to the week before the Regular
Session begins
2
➢Alabama’s economy remains strongo In 2019 Alabama added, on average, 40,230 jobs per montho Unemployment rate was 2.7% for December 2019
➢We do not anticipate a recession through 2021o U.S. economy (Real GDP) grew 2.3% in 2019o Forecasted growth is 2.1% in 2020 and 2.1% in 2021
➢ ETF Estimated revenue growtho FY2020 – 4.46%o FY2021 – 1.90%
➢ SGF Estimated revenue growtho FY2020 – 3.94%o FY2021 – 2.40%
Revenue Estimates and Economic Assumptions
3
Sales Tax Collections
4
2.23%1.90%
2.75%2.99%
4.39%4.68%
4.29%4.74%
4.30%
5.11%
4.54%4.12%
3.89%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr-1
8
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
GROSS SALES TAX
12 MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE
Individual Income Tax Collections
5
4.57%
5.16%
6.65%7.15%
8.58%8.29%
5.40%4.97%
9.16%
7.45%
8.20%
6.03%
7.19%
6.58%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar
-18
Apr-1
8
May
-18
Jun-
18
Jul-1
8
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct
-18
Nov
-18
Dec
-18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Apr-1
9
May
-19
Jun-
19
Jul-1
9
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
Oct
-19
Nov
-19
Dec
-19
GROSS INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX
12 MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE
General Obligation Bonds $658 million
Revenue Bonds $4.05 billion
o Public School & College Authority
o State Port Authority
o Economic Settlement
o Federal Aid Highway Finance Authority
o Incentives Finance Authority
o Public Healthcare Authority
o Building Renovation Finance Authority
o 21st Century Authority
o Mental Health Authority
o Revolving Loan Fund Authority
Total State Indebtedness $4.70 billion (as of 9/30/19)
Total State Debt Outstanding
6
Debt Outstanding – Rank vs Other States
7
Net Tax % ofSupported National Per National Personal
State Debt (in 000s) Rank Capita Rank Income Rank
Alabama $4,285,571 25 $877 27 2.2% 27
Arkansas $1,782,522 38 $591 35 1.4% 31
Florida $17,302,435 9 $812 29 1.7% 30
Georgia $10,476,548 14 $996 26 2.3% 25
Kentucky $8,633,844 16 $1,932 12 4.8% 9
Louisiana $7,099,162 20 $1,523 17 3.5% 16
Mississippi $5,322,398 23 $1,782 14 4.9% 8
South Carolina $2,555,179 31 $503 39 1.2% 38
Tennessee $2,062,971 35 $305 44 0.7% 44
8
Total Annual Debt Service (in millions)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
Rainy Day Accounts
➢ETFo Current available amount is $454,146,159 (6.5% of FY19 budget)o No outstanding amount to be repaid
➢ SGFo Current available amount is $212,295,186 (10% of FY19 budget)o No outstanding amount to be repaid
➢ATF Repaymento Original amount withdrawn $437,390,829
o Amount repaid as of 9/30/20 $280,434,126
o Remainder $156,956,703
o Annual required payment $ 13,500,000
9
Alabama Trust Fund Offshore Royalty Receipts
10
$369,397,745$345,231,494
$47,694,378$42,837,457
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
Alabama Trust Fund Assets
11
(in millions)
$1,707
$2,090 $2,123 $2,329
$2,539 $2,788
$3,150 $2,934
$2,485 $2,490 $2,483 $2,365 $2,300
$2,591 $2,430
$2,543
$3,146 $3,244 $3,294
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
*
General Fund Revenue
12
(in millions)
$1,603$1,428
$1,517$1,684 $1,725 $1,755
$1,851 $1,845$1,920
$1,996$2,152
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
General Fund Expenditures (in millions)
13
$1,716
$1,473 $1,535$1,686 $1,727 $1,747
$1,824 $1,854 $1,841$1,897
$2,034
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
ETF Revenue (in millions)
14
$5,679
$5,217 $5,338$5,704 $5,683 $5,803
$6,048 $6,073$6,327
$6,754$7,215
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
ETF Expenditures (in millions)
15
$5,679
$5,206 $5,341$5,678
$5,437$5,731 $5,878 $5,954
$6,325 $6,409 $6,616
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
General Fund:
Beginning balance $ 273 million
Revenue $2.290 billion
Available $2.563 billion
Appropriations $2.563 billion
Ending balance $0
2021 Budget – Governor’s Proposal
16
2021 Budget – Governor’s Proposal
17
Education Trust Fund:
Beginning balance $0
Revenue $7.677 billion
Appropriations $7.537 billion
Ending balance $ 130 million