state and outlook 2015 am/6_1_eea_… · report soer 2015 a comprehensive assessment of past trends...

THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENT STATE AND OUTLOOK 2015

Dr Cathy Maguire

European Environment Agency

[email protected]

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The EEA: a network organisation with a direct link to policy

The European Environment Agency

is an EU body that operates at the

interface of science and policy.

With a network of more than 300

institutions in 39 European

countries, the EEA provides timely,

reliable and relevant information to

support sustainable development.

EEA work is targeted at EU

institutions, EEA member countries,

civil society and the general public

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SOER 2015

A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of

opportunities to recalibrate policies, knowledge, investments and

innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7th EAP.

SOER 2015 Synthesis report

SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends

11 briefings

Global

megatrends

25 briefings

European

briefings

9 briefings

Cross-country

comparisons

39+3 briefings

Countries and

regions

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The policy context

Source: EEA Multiannual Work Programme 2014–2018

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Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme

‘In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological limits.

Our prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,

circular economy where nothing is wasted and where natural

resources are managed sustainably, and biodiversity is protected,

valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's resilience.

Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use,

setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’

Source: 7th EU Environment Action Programme

Synthesis

report Part 1: Setting the

scene

Part 2: Assessing

European trends

Part 3: Looking

ahead

Sets out the evolving

context for European

environmental policy, and

the global megatrends that

directly and indirectly affect

Europe’s environment.

Provides summary

assessments of the trends

and outlook for 20

environmental issues,

grouped under the three

priority thematic objectives of

the 7th Environment Action

Programme.

Reflects on the overall

picture of the European

environment’s state and

outlook. Signals

opportunities to adjust

environmental policy to

support the transition to a

more sustainable society.

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Key messages from SOER 2015

• Policies have delivered substantial benefits for the environment,

economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain

• Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production

and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context

• Achieving the 2050 vision requires system transitions, driven by more

ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovation

• Doing so presents major opportunities to boost Europe’s economy and

employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

© D

anie

l D

anko,

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& M

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Eco-industries have prospered despite the

recession in Europe

© D

anie

l D

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90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Eco-industry

value added

Eco-industry

employment

Total EU

GDP

Total EU

employment

Source: Eurostat, 2014.

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Assessing past trends and future outlooks

The Synthesis report addresses the three thematic priority objectives of

the 7th EAP:

1. Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

2. Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy

3. Safeguarding from environmental risks to health

Two overall patterns emerge:

• Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not

translated into increased ecosystem and social resilience

• The long-term outlook is often less positive than recent trends

© A

na S

kobe,

Environm

ent

& M

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Thematic priority objective 1:

Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

Past (5–10

year) trends

Progress to

policy targets

Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Land use and soil functions No target

Ecological status of freshwater bodies

Water quality and nutrient loading

Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts

Marine and coastal biodiversity

Climate change impacts on ecosystems No target

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

Largely on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

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Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy


Past (5–10

year) trends

Progress to

policy targets

Material resource efficiency and material use No target

Waste management

Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation /

Energy consumption and fossil fuel use

Transport demand and related environmental impacts

Industrial pollution to air, soil and water

Water use and water quantity stress




Largely on track

Partially on track


20+ years outlook

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SOER2015 / Synthesis /

Waste management is improving but European remains far from a circular economy

Assessing European trends: Resource efficiency and the low-carbon economy


Waste management

5-10 year trends:

Less waste is being landfilled due to reduced generation of some wastes,

increased recycling and greater use of waste for energy recovery.

20+ year outlook:

Total waste generation is still high, although implementation of waste prevention

programmes could alleviate this.

Progress to policy targets:

Past successes with some waste streams, but only mixed progress across

countries towards meeting recycling and landfill targets.

Overall

summary table Waste Green economy

Resource

efficiency Waste

Summary table

2/3

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Hazardous waste generated per capita

Source: ETC/SCP and ETC/WMGE, based on Eurostat data and National waste statistics for Switzerland

*Estonia: 4 914 kg/cap (2006), 5 638 kg/cap (2008), 6 731 kg/cap (2010), 6 925 kg/cap (2012).

*Bulgaria: 1 760 kg/cap (2006), 1 741 kg/cap (2008), 1 833 kg/cap (2010), 1 835 kg/cap (2012).

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Esto

nia

*

Bu

lga

ria

*

Lu

xe

mb

ou

rg

Irela

nd

Be

lgiu

m

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Ge

rma

ny

Norw

ay

Den

ma

rk

Fra

nce

Ita

ly

Cze

ch

Rep

ub

lic

Au

str

ia

Slo

ve

nia

Tu

rkey

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Cyp

rus

Gre

ece

Fin

lan

d

Neth

erla

nd

s

Sw

ed

en

Un

ite

d K

ingd

om

Hun

ga

ry

Ma

lta

Slo

va

kia

Sp

ain

Ice

lan

d

Po

rtuga

l

Po

lan

d

Rom

an

ia

Cro

atia

kg

/ c

ap

2006

2008

2010

2012

EU27 average (2006-2012)

Hazardous waste generation

increase (2006-2012)

Hazardous waste generation

decrease (2006-2012)

Hazardous waste treatment

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Incineration with energy recovery

Recovery other than energy recovery

Incineration without energy recovery

Disposal

Mill

ion

to

nn

es

2006

2008

2010

2012

Recovery other than energy recovery includes backfilling

Data for EU-27 and Norway

Source: ETC/SCP and ETC/WMGE, based on Eurostat data

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Note: Data refer to EU-27 and Norway

Source: ETC/SCP and ETC/WMGE, based on Eurostat data

Differences between reported generated and treated hazardous waste

Cross-border trade in non-hazardous waste

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Safeguarding from environmental risks to health


Past (5–10

year) trends

Progress to

policy targets

Water pollution and related environmental health risks /

Air pollution and related environmental health risks

Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)

Urban systems and grey infrastructure No target

Climate change and related environmental health risks No target

Chemicals and related environmental health risks /




Largely on track

Partially on track


20+ years outlook

/

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SOER2015 / Synthesis /

Risk management needs to be adapted to emerging environment and health issues

Assessing European trends: Safeguarding from environmental risks to health

Chemicals and related environmental health risks

5-10 year trends:

The impacts of some hazardous chemicals are increasingly being addressed.

Endocrine disrupters and newly emerging chemicals are of growing concern.

Knowledge gaps and uncertainty remain.

20+ year outlook:

Chemicals may have long lasting impacts, especially persistent and bio-

accumulative chemicals. Implementation of EU and international policies is

likely to reduce the chemical burden.

Progress to policy targets:

Implementation of REACH continues. No policy targets have been set for

chemical mixtures. Concern on the impact of newly emerging chemicals

remains.

Overall

summary table

Freshwater

quality

Summary table

3/3

Health and

environment

Freshwater

quality


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Information Platform for Chemical Monitoring (IPCheM)

A single online access point for discovering and retrieving chemical monitoring data Goals:

• Map chemical exposure pathways via

multiple media

• Inform integrated assessments that

combine data on chemicals in the

environment, food and feed, indoor air and

products and from human biomonitoring

• Improve the knowledge base for policy

making on chemicals

4 modules – food and feed, human

biomonitoring, indoor air and products,

environmental data

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The overall picture:

Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience

Protecting, conserving

and enhancing natural

capital

Resource efficiency

and the low-carbon

economy

Safeguarding from

environmental risks to

health

Past

(5–10)

year

trends





20+

years

outlook

/

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Understanding past trends and future outlooks

Two major factors explain the uneven progress and prospects:

The changing global context

• Competition for resources

• Pressures from outside Europe

• Planetary boundaries

Systemic characteristics of environmental challenges

• Complexity

• Uncertainty

• Environmental, social and economic interdependencies

© A

na S

kobe,

Environm

ent

& M

e /

EE

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Looking ahead:

Systemic challenges require systemic solutions

Not just incremental efficiency gains

but fundamental transitions in food, energy, urban, mobility, finance and fiscal

systems

through profound changes in dominant practices, policies and thinking.

Source: Tesla

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Source: EEA.

Reducing

environmental

pressures or offsetting

harmful effects

Precautionary principle:

avoid potential harm (or

counter-productive

actions) in highly

complex and uncertain

situations

Remediating

environmental

degradation (where

possible) or other

costs imposed on

society

Some environmental

change inevitable:

anticipate adverse effects

of specific environmental

changes

Looking ahead:

Building on 40 years of European and national policies

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Achieving the 2050 vision depends on action today:

Fostering innovation

• Economic, technological and social innovations can support

long-term transitions to a green economy

• This requires upscaling niche innovations such as collaborative

consumption and prosumerism

• Publicly funded research has fostered many of the most

important and commercially successful innovations

• Essential to consider what type of innovation Europe wants – the

four environment principles of the EU Treaty can be a guide

© V

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royanov,

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Achieving the 2050 vision depends on action today :

Investing for the long term

• European investment needs are huge and today’s choices will

determine our future pathways of development

• The EU has committed to spend at least 20% of the 2014-

2020 budget on transforming Europe into a clean and

competitive low-carbon economy

• Need to avoid investments that lock in existing patterns and

limit options

• Shifting taxation and phasing out environmentally harmful

subsidies can stimulate investment and innovation in this

direction

© V

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Looking ahead:

Expanding the knowledge base

• SOER 2015 knowledge base will not be fit for SOER 2020

• Need for improved knowledge on environment-economy

interactions and long-term systemic perspectives

• Environmental knowledge community (EKC) and key

Knowledge Innovation Projects (KIP)

• Shift from problem to solution focused knowledge base

© V

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Looking ahead:

SOER 2015 as a resource

© V

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Looking ahead:

SOER 2015 as a resource

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Looking ahead:

Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050

• Achieving the 2050 vision is

possible but it depends on

our actions and investments

today.

• Systemic change must

deliver decent employment,

opportunities and fairness,

as well as respecting

environmental limits.

• SOER 2015 illustrates the

success of European policy.

We should be confident in

entering a new stage of

environmental governance.

© V

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Source: Raworth, 2012

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state and outlook 2015 am/6_1_eea_… · report soer 2015 a comprehensive assessment of past trends...

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