stat - global pulses conclave
TRANSCRIPT
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Global Pulses Conclave — 2014
BRIAN CLANCEYWWW.STATPUB.COM
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Price Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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Bulk vs. Container Freight
Graph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc.Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
AllPeasWheatCanola
Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9(million metric tons)
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Price Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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Major Pulse Currencies(2004 = 100)
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Rupee weakens faster
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Canadian Red Lentils(per metric ton track Vancouver)
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Weak Rupee
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Canada Yellow Peas(per metric ton delivered Vancouver)
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Weak Rupee
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Canadian Yellow Pea Price(grower versus export price)
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Weak Dollar
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Outside Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
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Competition For Acres(2004 = 100)
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Pulses Less Competitive
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Pulse Index as % of Grains(2004 = 100)
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World pulse area jumped 15% in
2010
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Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds(2004 = 100)
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Pulse area fell 21% in export countries in
2011
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2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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World Pulse Production(million metric tons)
Exporters India Other2014-15 9.9 18.6 22.02009-13 9.9 17.3 22.42006-10 9.1 14.9 21.92001-05 8.5 12.9 20.71996-2000 8.7 13.8 18.01991-95 7.1 13.4 20.7
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World Pulse Production(percent share of total)
Exporters India Other2014-15 20% 40% 40%2010-14 20% 37% 43%2005-09 20% 32% 48%2000-04 21% 31% 48%1995-99 20% 35% 45%1990-94 16% 31% 53%
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2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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World Pea Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
Canada 3,217,800 3,849,000 3,301,000Russia 1,580,400 1,684,000 2,197,000France 686,600 533,000 575,000United States 578,000 709,000 729,000Australia 356,400 342,000 334,000World 10,268,000 11,162,000 11,164,000The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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World Pea Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 6,600,000 7,020,000 7,170,000 Production 10,490,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 Carry-in 680,000 370,000 820,000 Supply 11,180,000 11,532,000 11,984,000
Trade 4,030,000 4,420,000 4,580,000 Inferred Use 10,440,000 10,712,000 11,304,000 Ending Stock 730,000 820,000 680,000 Stock-Use Ratio 7% 8% 6%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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World Lentil Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
Australia 256,600 253,000 264,000Canada 1,705,600 1,881,000 1,766,000United States 268,000 228,000 193,000Turkey 378,400 300,000 463,000Other 1,696,200 1,149,000 1,371,000World 4,304,800 3,811,000 4,057,000
The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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World Lentil Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 4,090,000 3,808,000 3,725,000 Production 4,300,000 3,811,000 4,057,000 Carry-in 580,000 373,000 245,000 Supply 4,880,000 4,184,000 4,302,000
Trade 2,170,000 2,438,000 2,246,000 Inferred Use 4,280,000 3,939,000 4,009,000 Ending Stock 600,000 245,000 293,000 Stock-Use Ratio 14% 6% 7%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
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World Dry Bean Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
China 1,437,000 1,312,000 1,736,000Argentina 264,600 96,000 294,000Brazil 3,263,400 3,311,000 3,180,000Mexico 2,418,000 2,537,000 2,583,000United States 4,550,200 4,800,000 4,627,000World 23,247,800 23,107,000 23,773,000The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
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World Bean Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 29,250,000 29,074,000 29,652,000 Production 23,250,000 23,107,000 23,773,000 Carry-in 820,000 505,000 612,000 Supply 24,070,000 23,612,000 24,385,000
Trade 4,260,000 3,913,000 4,386,000 Inferred Use 23,280,000 23,000,000 23,583,000 Ending Stock 790,000 612,000 802,000 Stock-Use Ratio 4% 2% 3%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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World Chickpea Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013-14 2014-15
Kabuli
India 502,000
515,000 438,000
Turkey 563,000 325,000 390,000Mexico 132,000 195,000 135,000All Kabuli 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000
Desi
9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13
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World Kabuli Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 1,943,000 1,878,000 1,826,000 Production 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Carry-in 193,000 361,000 369,000 Supply 2,165,000 2,248,000 2,227,000
Trade 420,000 504,000 465,000 Inferred Use 1,928,000 1,879,000 1,976,000 Ending Stock 238,000 369,000 251,000 Stock-Use Ratio 12% 20% 13%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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World Desi Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 10,666,000 11,410,000 12,218,000 Production 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 Carry-in 76,000 4,000 56,000 Supply 9,576,000 10,808,000 11,531,000
Trade 868,000 392,000 224,000 Inferred Use 9,514,000 10,752,000 11,472,000 Ending Stock 62,000 56,000 59,000 Stock-Use Ratio 1% 1% 1%
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The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
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Conclusions• General increase in pulse area
• Stronger weather events
• India leading increase in output