star symposium 2013 the changing reality of energy development jeffery lafleur, vice president...
TRANSCRIPT
Star Symposium 2013 The Changing Reality of Energy
Development
Jeffery LaFleur, Vice President Generation Assets APCO/KYPCO
October 22, 2013
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Time From Rule Finalization to Compliance
Effluent Limit Guidelines (water discharge limits)
Coal Combustion Residuals
MATS (mercury & air toxics)
2012 & 2014 Compliance PhasesRule Vacated pending Supreme Court Appeal
Environmental Rules Development
CSAPR (SO2 & NOx)
20202019
316(b) Rule (water intake structures)
New Source CO2 NSPS
Existing Source CO2 NSPS
Pro
po
sed
an
d/o
r F
inal
ized
Ru
les
An
tici
pa
ted
R
ule
s
Potential for One Year Compliance Extension
Compliance Timeline Contingent on Permit Renewal Cycle
Compliance Timeline Contingent on State Implementation Plans
Compliance Required from Rule Proposal DateRe-Proposal of Rule Expected
Compliance Timeline Will Vary
20222021
Historic AEP Emission Reductions
Since 1980, AEP’s TOTAL generating fleet has reduced:
SO2 emissions by more than 77 percent
NOx emissions by about 80 percent
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
SO
2
(mill
ion
s o
f U
.S. t
on
s)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
NO
x(m
illio
ns
of
U.S
. to
ns)
SO2 Emissions
NOx Emissions
Global CO2 Emissions
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Global CO2 Emissions
• 2012 global CO2 emissions totaled
32.2 billion metric tons.
• Of that, China accounted for 28 percent.
• The U.S. accounted for 17 percent.
• Global emissions have increased
15 percent since 2005.
• 80 percent of the increase is because of growth in China.
• By 2040, emissions from developing countries will rise by more than 70 percent.
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U.S. Greenhouse Emissions
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• In 2011, EGU CO2 emissions were 10 percent below 2005 levels.
• Preliminary 2012 EIA data indicates EGU emissions were 15 percent below 2005 levels.
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U.S. Greenhouse Emissions
Proposed CO2 Regs
• 1,100 lbs. per MWh for new coal plants.
– CCS would be required to meet goal.
• 1,000 lbs. per MWh for new natural gas plants.
• New Turk plant is 1,800 lbs. per MWh.
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Cost to Build
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Installation Cost Per kW
Coal vs. Natural Gas
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MMBTU
IGCC Status
• Duke Edwardsport IGCC– Began commercial operation June 2013.
– 618 MW facility without CO2 capture.
– Estimated Cost: $3.4 billion or $5,500/kW.
• Southern Company Kemper IGCC– Under construction (expected COD mid-2014).
– 582 MW facility with 65 percent CO2 capture (3.5 million tonnes per year).
– Estimated Cost: $4.7 billion to date or $8,000/kW (original estimate about $2.4 billion).
• By comparison, the Turk plant is a 620 MW ultra-supercritical and was completed at a cost of about $1.8 billion, or $2,900/kW.
A Customer’s Bill
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7%Transmission
25%Distribution
Recent Rate Activity
The Appalachian Power ExperienceThe Effect on Customers
• Low per capita income
– West Virginia - $23,697.
– Virginia - $21,636 (our service area).
• Unemployment remains high
– West Virginia – 6.3 percent.
– Virginia – 5.8 percent (our service area).
• 54 percent of customers have electric heat.
• 25 percent of customers are behind on their bills.
• 400 percent increase in uncollectibles.
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Customer Data