stanford brown

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

50%31%

29%29%

26%23%23%

16%16%16%15%15%14%14%13%12%11%10%

7%6%5%4%3%3%3%2%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%0%

-1%-1%-2%-2%-2%-3%-3%-3%

-5%-5%

-7%-7%-8%-8%-8%-9%-9%-9%

-10%-12%-12%-13%-13%-14%-14%-14%-15%

-22%-25%

-30%

-50% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

VenezuelaNigeriaKorea

TurkeyDenmark

China (foreign)Argentina

TaiwanUS

JapanIndia

VietnamLithuania

###> WORLDChina (domestic)

PortugalNZ

Sri LankaFinland

PakistanSwedenEstonia

Saudi ArabiaNetherlands

BrazilIreland

MalaysiaCanadaNorway

PeruMexico

Switzerland####> AUSTRALIA

GermanySth Africa

LatviaPoland

SlovakiaRomania

LuxembourgSlovenia

IsraelHK

IndonesiaItaly

FranceMorocco

Czech RepThailandBelgiumHungary

PhilippinesJordanRussiaGreece

SingaporeAustriaCyprus

ColombiaCroatia

UKSpainEgyptChile

Kenya

Global Stock Markets - 2020

OWEN

Broad Stock Market Price Index for each

country - in the country's local currency

sources: FT, Bloomberg, MSCI

US

WORLD

Australia

China (domestic)

China (foreign)

Taiwan

Japan

Germany

Italy

Sth Korea

HK

NZ

Spain

France

Canada

UK

Switz

36619

253232

3960

01084

28108

0598

2373

691510

10247

864185179

676919

46015

41681

1145983

88836

416492

352769

409829838

1321390

2082

1239994

2011105

11693

100884

380397

4735

697108

860980

10981086

76871

31

0 500 1,000 1,500

VenezuelaNigeriaKorea

TurkeyDenmark

China (foreign)Argentina

TaiwanUS

JapanIndia

VietnamLithuania

###> WORLDChina (domestic)

PortugalNZ

Sri LankaFinland

PakistanSwedenEstonia

Saudi ArabiaNetherlands

BrazilIreland

MalaysiaCanadaNorway

PeruMexico

Switzerland####> AUSTRALIA

GermanySth Africa

LatviaPoland

SlovakiaRomania

LuxembourgSlovenia

IsraelHK

IndonesiaItaly

FranceMorocco

Czech RepThailandBelgiumHungary

PhilippinesJordanRussiaGreece

SingaporeAustriaCyprus

ColombiaCroatia

UKSpainEgyptChile

Kenya

Coronavirus deaths per million pop.

OWEN

Australia

Argetnina

Sweden

Mexico

Belgium

Brazl

Peru

US

WORLD

China (foreign)

Taiwan

Japan

Germany

Italy

Sth Korea

HK

NZ

Spain

France

Canada

UK

Switz

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

1.4%

11.3%

6.2%

-27.6%

-6.3%

4.1%

-12.3%

18.2%

8.4%

-4.6%

4.6%

-16.7%

-40% -20% +0% +20% +40%

ASX200

Cons. Discret.

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Info Tech

Materials

(Resources)

A-REITs

Telcos

Utilities

2020

source data: S&P OWEN

13.7%

11.1%

6.4%

26.3%

22.8%

-1.1%

4.9%

24.8%

15.4%

18.1%

13.3%

12.3%

-5.4%

-40% -20% +0% +20% +40%

ASX200

Cons. Discret.

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Info Tech

Materials

(Resources)

A-REITs

Telcos

Utilities

Dec 2020 qtr


-0.4%

8.7%

-3.9%

-14.2%

-6.2%

0.8%

0.3%

12.6%

4.0%

-0.4%

7.0%

-2.6%

-8.1%

-40% -20% +0% +20% +40%

ASX200

Cons. Discret.

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Info Tech

Materials

(Resources)

A-REITs

Telcos

Utilities

Sep 2020 qtr


16.5%

30.1%

7.2%

28.3%

12.9%

2.3%

15.3%

48.7%

26.2%

27.5%

19.9%

13.5%

5.5%

+0% +10% +20% +30% +40% +50%

ASX200

Cons. Discret.

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Info Tech

Materials

(Resources)

A-REITs

Telcos

Utilities

Jun 2020 qtr


-23.1%

-29.1%

-3.1%

-47.9%

-28.0%

2.1%

-27.7%

-24.5%

-21.9%

-27.8%

-34.4%

-15.7%

-9.1%

-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% +0% +10%

ASX200

Cons. Discret.

Cons. Staples

Energy

Financials

Healthcare

Industrials

Info Tech

Materials

(Resources)

A-REITs

Telcos

Utilities

Total Returns Qtr: Mar 2020 qtr


76.3%

9.7%21.6%

3.2%8.6%

23.3%39.6%

17.7%21.7%

34.0%8.4%

-0.5%11.4%

-0.9%8.5%

21.3%-2.7%

28.2%-10.1%

-16.2%-17.9%

1.0%

-0.7%31.1%

-40.9%-29.9%-28.3%

-46.0%-41.9%-43.8%

-21.2%-38.5%

2.4%-8.8%

-13.9%-43.9%

-22.8%-36.0%

16.1%1.8%

-8.1%-1.2%

2.8%

7.9%19.3%

-9.3%-10.1%

0.5%-6.0%

26.1%3.3%

-3.4%-4.6%

21.0%2.7%

-34.3%20.2%

50.7%15.2%

-52.3%0.8%

-0.9%-3.2%

-8.8%-31.2%

43.9%23.3%

80.7%41.0%

16.4%19.5%

-16.8%45.2%

60.1%-6.7%

51.6%-10.9%

22.1%-6.1%

121.9%

11.6%9.0%6.4%

16.3%21.5%25.9%

49.6%37.8%

-3.9%20.2%

33.1%31.1%

-26.4%50.2%

25.3%-4.3%

16.5%67.1%

14.3%

-100% -50% +0% +50% +100% +150%

AmazonTelsa

Alibaba (China)Home Depot

Toyota (Japan)McDonald's

LVMH (France)Nike

L'Oreal (France)Starbucks

Lowe'sBooking (Priceline)

Nestle (Switz)Proctor & gamble

Coca-ColaPepsiCo

WalmartPhilip Morris

CostcoDiageo (UK)

BAT (UK)Altira (Marlboro)

Unilever (UK, Neth)

Aramco(Saudi Arabia)Reliance Indust (India)

Exxon MobilChevron

TOTAL SA (France)BP (UK)

Shell A (UK)Shell B (UK)

Enbridge (Canada)ConocoPhillips

Berkshire Hath BJP Morgan Ch

Bank of AmWells Fargo

CitiHSBC (UK)

AIA (HK)RBC (Canada)

Allianz (Germany)TD Bank (Canada)

[ CommBank, ASX ]

Johnson&JohnsonUnited Hlth

Novartis (Switz)Merck

Roche (Switz)Pfizer

Abbott LabsMedtronic

Bristol MyersAmgenAbbVie

[ CSL, ASX ]

BoeingHonewell

Keyence (Japan)Union Pacific

Raytheon (UTX)Siemens (Germany)

3MGE

Lockheed MartinAirbus (France)

UPS BCaterpillar

AppleMicrosoft

VisaMastercard

IntelSamsung Elec (Korea)

Taiwan Semicon (Taiwan)Cisco

AdobeSAP (GermanY)

OracleIBM

NVDIA

Linde (Germany)BHP (Aust)

Air Liquide (France)Air Prod&Chem (US)

Rio Tinto Plc (UK)Sherwin Williams (US)

Shin-Etsu Chem. (Japan)Newmont (US)

BASF (Germany)Barrick Gold (Canada)

Facebook AAlphabet A

AT&TTencent (China)

Walt DisneyVerizon

Comcast ANetflix

GLOBAL Price Index (in USD)

2020 calendar yr


Co

mm

s M

ate

ria

ls

T

ech

I

nd

ust

ria

ls

H

ea

lth

care

F

ina

nci

als

E

ne

rgy

S

tap

les

D

iscr

eti

on

ary

-100% +4,900% +9,900% +14,900% +19,900% +24,900% +29,900% +34,900%

1101201301401501601701801901

1,0011,1011,2011,3011,4011,5011,6011,7011,8011,9012,0012,1012,201

All listed stocks - by size - 2020 - 1y change

source data: ASX OWENInv \ Market Index - list of ASX stocks....\ 2020

-100% -50% +0%

1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801

901

1,001

1,101

1,201

1,301

1,401

1,501

1,601

1,701

1,801

1,901

2,001

2,101

2,201

All listed stocks - by size -2020 1y change - DOWN

source data: ASX OWEN

A

+0% +50% +100%

1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801

901

1,001

1,101

1,201

1,301

1,401

1,501

1,601

1,701

1,801

1,901

2,001

2,101

2,201

All listed stocks - by size -2020 1y change - UP


B

+0% +10,000% +20,000% +30,000% +40,000%

3

103

203

303

403

503

603

703

803

903

1,003

1,103

1,203

1,303

1,403

1,503

1,603

1,703

1,803

1,903

2,003

2,103

2,203



D

(full scale)

+1,000% +1,500% +2,000%

1

101

201

301

401

501

601

701

801

901

1,001

1,101

1,201

1,301

1,401

1,501

1,601

1,701

1,801

1,901

2,001

2,101

2,201


'10-baggers'(1,000%+ gains)


C

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% +0%

1

51

101

151

201

251

301

351

401

451

Top 500 - by size - 2020 1y change - DOWN

A


+0% +20% +40% +60% +80% +100%

1

51

101

151

201

251

301

351

401

451

Top 500 - by size - 2020 1y change - UP

B


+0% +1,000% +2,000%

1

51

101

151

201

251

301

351

401

451


D

(full scale)


+1,000% +1,500% +2,000%

1

51

101

151

201

251

301

351

401

451


'10-baggers'(1,000%+ gains)


C

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubini

https://www.afr.com/markets/ten-reasons-why-the-world-economy-will-crash-by-2020-20181015-h16n3c

https://www.afr.com/markets/ten-reasons-why-the-world-economy-will-crash-by-2020-20181015-h16n3c

https://www.barrons.com/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB932186593435032553

mailto:[email protected]

Inception January 2017

SOTERIA 'Dynamic Active' models SOTERIA 'Dynamic Index' models

Model

‘Conservative’ ‘Moderate’ ‘Balanced’ ‘ Growth’ ‘High

Growth’ ‘Conservative’ ‘Moderate’ ‘Balanced’ ‘Growth’

‘High Growth‘

‘Neutral’ growth

defensive mix

30/70 50/50 65/35 80/20 95/5

30/70 50/50 65/35 80/20 95/5

Current growth

defensive mix

30/70 50/50 65/35 80/20 94/6

30/70 50/50 65/35 80/20 94/6

Long term CPI+ goal

CPI +3%

CPI +3.5%

CPI +4%

CPI +4.5%

CPI +5%

CPI +3%

CPI +3.5%

CPI +4%

CPI +4.5%

CPI +5%

December month returns

0.37% 0.63% 0.78% 0.98% 1.00%

0.46% 0.77% 0.99% 1.21% 1.38%

The next two charts show total returns (ie including re-invested income, and after fees) from our most popular portfolios

‘Moderate’ and ‘Balanced’ – since their inception at the start of 2017. (We offer a full range from ‘Conservative’ through to

‘High Growth’. Each of these is offered in types: ‘Dynamic Active’ – which include a mix of passive index funds and actively

managed funds; and ‘Dynamic Index’ – which use index funds only.

The dark green line in each chart shows the cumulative portfolio returns over time. The grey dotted line shows each portfolio’s

long term goal for returns above the rate of inflation. Note that the inflation-based line has dipped in the June quarter 2020

with negative price inflation in Australia. These ‘inflation-plus’ targets are the main long term return objectives for each

portfolio, but the actual portfolio returns will oscillate around these total return targets from time to time – for example in late

2018 and during this year’s coronavirus crisis.

stanford brown

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