stakeholder views: 5 proposals of student voices and ... · 1960 and 2010 in most countries. in...
TRANSCRIPT
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
1
STAKEHOLDER VIEWS: 5 PROPOSALS OF STUDENT VOICES AND TEACHER VOICES
FOR SCHOOLING FOR 2030
ANNEX: WHAT CHALLENGES DO DATA SUGGEST FOR SOCIETY IN 2030?
Background
1. This document contains a reference guide used by the students and their teachers of the Tohoku
School project when preparing proposals for “Schooling for 2030”, to be discussed at the student-teacher
conference that will take place at the OECD on 2 September 2014.
2. The reference guide has selected 7 themes and related OECD data as well as other sources that
can be most relevant to project the future of 2030. The guide also raises questions for discussion that aim
to stimulate the reader to reflect upon: a) what the world would look like and what issues would arise in
2030, b) what kind of skills and competencies would be needed to respond to such issues, and c) what kind
of learning models would fit the changing demands in 2030.
3. In 2030, the students in the project will be in their 30s and are expected to be in employment and
contribute to forming their society as an active citizen. Their teachers may be in their 40s-60s. Thus,
thinking about schooling for 2030 is an exercise that can frame one’s thinking within a realistic timeframe,
instead of stretching one’s imagination, like science fiction, for example, a world in 2100.
4. The reference guide also aims to introduce a wide range of OECD data in support of developing
data literacy of the students of the Tohoku School as well as introducing back casting thinking
framework.
Acknowledgement
5. This document was prepared by the empowerment partners of the Tohoku School project. They
studied OECD data and summarised main findings, selected relevant findings, identified other relevant
sources, and translated them into English. The contributors include: Mr. Takahiro FUTADA (Nara
Women’s University Junior High School), Ms. Saki KINNAN, Ms. Reona OKADA and Ms. Shiori
YAMASHITA (Osaka University), Ms. Hikari KUNISHIO (Kansei Gakuin University), Ms. Ayaka
MURAI (Nara Women’s University), Ms. Mao YASUDA and Ms. Marino OMORI (Blue Earth Project),
Ms. Eri SASAKI, Mr. Keiichiro SASAKI and Mr. Makoto NAKAGIRI (Tokyo University).
6. The document was translated by Ms. Kazuna Inohana, Ms. Kayo Tiffany, Ms. Nao Matsushita,
Ms. Mayuko Mizukawa, Ms. Miyu Nakagawa, Ms. Asahi Obata, Ms. Erika Takagi, and Ms. Sakura
Tsukada (Doshisha International High School) and was edited by Ms. Kelly Makowiecki (OECD). The
figures were prepared by Ms. Kelly Makowiecki and Mr. Masafumi Ishikawa (OECD).
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. GO GLOBAL .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Current state of play ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ........................................................................................ 3
2. THINK GREEN ....................................................................................................................................... 6
Current state of play ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ........................................................................................ 7
3. WAR, PEACE AND CITIZENSHIP ........................................................................................................ 10
Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 10 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 12
4. SKILLS SUPPLY AND DEMAND.......................................................................................................... 14
Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 14 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 16
5. MIND THE GAP .................................................................................................................................... 18
Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 18 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 20
6. MODERN FAMILIES .............................................................................................................................. 22
Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 22 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 22
7. INFINITE CONNECTION .................................................................................................................... 26
Current state of play ................................................................................................................................... 26 Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030 ...................................................................................... 27
BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................................... 29
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
1. GO GLOBAL
Current state of play
7. The number of people migrating to affluent countries is increasing. The globalization, in other
words the mobility of individuals, families and human capital, has been facilitated by the advances of
technology and the decrease in cost of migration. “Transport” of people has become more accessible due to
the affordable cost, and it has been developing new markets and new ways of being. Following this trend,
the community is starting to change, and the citizen’s diversity is increasing.
8. In the picture below, you will notice that the migration rate in each country is increasing between
1960 and 2010 in most countries. In comparison to the data as a whole, Japan’s immigration rate is lower
than other countries, but it is increasing.
Figure 1.1. More diverse communities with increasing numbers of international migrants
Stock of international migrants as a percentage of the total population, 1960, 1985 and 2010
Note: International migrants are defined as individuals whose country of birth is not that in which they reside. Due to availability of data, 1990 figures are given in place of 1985 for the Czech Republic, Estonia, Germany, the Russian Federation, Slovak Republic, and Slovenia.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
9. One research study (Japan not being included) indicates the following:
In Australia, England, Wales, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway and Sweden, the
number of people born in foreign countries will greatly increase, and by 2050, 15%-32% of
the population will be foreign-born.
Among the people born in foreign countries, the number of migrants from Western countries
will decrease, and the number of migrants from countries besides the West will increase. Also
considering their high birth rates, an increase in population is expected.
0
10
20
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40
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Isra
el
Luxem
bourg
Sw
itzerland
New
Zeala
nd
Canada
Austr
alia
Irela
nd
Austr
ia
Sw
eden
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Esto
nia
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any
Icela
nd
OE
CD
Avera
ge
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the
rla
nd
s
United K
ingdom
Fra
nce
Gre
ece
Norw
ay
Belg
ium
Denm
ark
Russia
n…
Port
ugal
Slo
venia
Italy
Czech R
epublic
Fin
land
South
Afr
ica
Hungary
Slo
vak R
epublic
Pola
nd
Turk
ey
Chile
Japan
Kore
a
Mexic
o
India
Bra
zil
Chin
a
Indonesia
1960 1985 2010
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Today, one-third of the population in the United States are ethnic minorities. In 2023, half of
all children will have ethnic minority backgrounds, and in 2042, they will comprise the
majority of the population.
The increase in number of children who are ethnic minorities will affect the preservation of
culture. For example, people in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, etc. have a tradition of an
expanded family. They have a strong mutual relationship developed by the elderly raising
youth and youth helping the elderly. However, in Asian families that emigrated from
England, communication between generations, the culture of an expanded family living
together and the authority of seniors are starting to diminish.
Children born in foreign countries or born between parents of different races have the
tendency to favour holding an identity of being “a new mixed race”.
Figure 1.2. Estimation of number of migrants according to region (Number of migrants in each country is expected to increase a great amount in the following years)
Coleman, D. (2009), The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their Ethnic Composition.
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Cultural and language varieties will greatly influence our schools and classrooms. Children that have
migrated are having problems with adapting to the environment and language barriers. The outlook of
2030 is moving beyond questions regarding whether we are prepared to face these problems. We are
now at a time to reconsider the roles of teachers, schools, parents and communities.
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
It is reported that many families that migrate experience instability and exclusion. Now that
more people are expected to migrate, what can the government and the schools do to admit
all children equally and to grant equal education for all?
What does cultural diversity actually mean? In order to accept cultural diversity in schools
and classrooms, what do students and teachers need to understand before accepting cultural
diversity?
Do you think bullying regarding race, citizenship and new identities exists? If it does, what
can the schools and classrooms do to prevent bullying for migrant children?
In the future, it is predicted that youth like you will have more opportunities of working
overseas and studying abroad. How can the schools and district communities help to prepare
youth for those opportunities?
Now that the competitions of global markets are intensifying, it is said that each country will
need to create innovations to maintain its position. What can the government, schools and
classrooms do to allow students to acquire the skills necessary for global competition and
international co-operation?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
2. THINK GREEN
Current state of play
10. Today, we are facing many environmental problems. Natural resources are being consumed
rapidly, and the demand of energy in our daily lives is growing. According to the figure below, between
1990 and 2010, biodiversity decreased due to deforestation that is taking place around the world.
Figure 2.1. Biodiversity decreasing through ongoing deforestation worldwide
Change in forest cover (Index 1990 = 100), 1990-2010
Note: The BRIICS countries are the emerging economies of Brazil, the Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
11. This next figure shows that between 1980 and 2009, natural disasters are starting to be observed
in more places than before.
Figure 2.2. Natural disasters becoming more commonplace
Number of natural disasters by type, 1980-2009
Note: Trends in weather-related disasters are compiled using information from the Emergency Events database of the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. This database also monitors direct economic losses and the number of victims.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
90
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
OECD BRIICS Rest of World World
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1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Tropical and extratropical cyclones, local storms Droughts and temperature extremes
Coastal and fluvial floods, flash floods
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Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
12. Research has indicated the following:
If new policies are not introduced, the basis of the environment will change dramatically over
the next decades, making it irreversible. Consequently, maintaining industrial advancement
will become difficult.
It is estimated that there will be a 37% increase by 2030, and a 52% increase by 2050 in the
amount of greenhouse gas emitted around the world. This signifies that by 2050, the world’s
temperature will be 1.7℃ to 2.4℃ higher compared to the temperature prior to the Industrial
Revolution. It also indicates high possibilities of natural disasters, including heat waves,
droughts, rainstorms and floods increasing, and those disasters causing greater damage for
crops.
Figure 2.3. Total greenhouse emissions (by region) 1970-2050
a) OECD Environmental outlook Baseline b) 450 ppm stabilisation policy simulation
Source: OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
13. In addition to climate change, expansion of farming areas is expected to force many creatures
recognised today into extinction. In order to produce food supplies and biofuel, there is the need to increase
the world’s farming area by 10%. This will lead to further decrease of habitats of wild animals. The
continuation of loss of diversity within the wild creatures can damage the valuable ecosystem, which
supports industrial advancement and health of human beings.
OECD
BRIC
ROW
Total Baseline
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GtCO2 eq
OECD
BRIC
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Year
GtCO2 eq
GHG reduction of
39% by 2050, compared to
2000
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Figure 2.4. Sources of losses in mean species abundance to 2030
Source: OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
14. By 2030, the world’s emission of carbon dioxide related to energy is expected to increase by
52%. Since the current investment in energy infrastructure will determine the future technology, fuel
demand and related emission, it is essential to propagate substitute process and fuel, such as renewable
energy, carbon recovery apparatus and storage technology (e.g., regulating and supporting the research and
development of new technology, giving incentive on further technology innovation, etc.)
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
00
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00
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00
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OECD BRIC ROW WORLD
0%-
loss to agriculture
loss to climate
loss to forestry
loss to fragmentation
loss to infrastructure
loss to nitrogen
Remaining diversity
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What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
The destruction of natural environment, decrease of biological diversity, and the problem of energy
and natural disasters are influencing our society greatly. The risk of it becoming more serious is
increasing. It is expected for education to positively take part in nurturing each person’s attitude,
awareness and sustainable action.
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
If a students’ understanding about the environment is not substantial, they have the tendency
to think optimistically and feel that environmental issues can be solved easily. What is the
most effective way to study about the environment?
Is it important to increase the number of academic classes? (e.g., geoscience, biology,
environmental science, etc.)
Or is it important to increase extra-curricular activities?
Are there any other ideas?
What kinds of skills are necessary to raise awareness of people and to educate citizens who
can take responsible actions that are environmentally friendly and sustainable (e.g.,
residential values, critical thinking skills, etc.)? Can those skills be acquired in school?
Compare “Environmentally friendly economy” and “Environmentally damaging economy”
by giving examples. What skills and specialties are necessary to create an environmentally
friendly economy?
Environmental issues are global issues.
What kind of skills, knowledge and attitude are required to approach these issues
globally?
Today, natural disasters are occurring all over the world. Are there any actions Japan
could initiate to lead the world after experiencing the disastrous Great East Japan
Earthquake? If so, what are they?
Environmental issues are issues that are accumulating at a daily pace. How can we become
more aware of the connection between our daily actions and long-term results? What can the
schools do to motivate people to take actions not only independently, but with the society as
a whole?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
3. WAR, PEACE AND CITIZENSHIP
Current state of play
15. In the 20th century, also known as the “War Era”, more than one million lives were lost, of which
half are said to be the lives of innocent civilians. It is during this century, in which movements against war
and movements for peace became serious and more active than ever before, and to this day, have been
ceaseless.
16. Today in the 21st century, there are wars and disputes occurring in different regions around the
world. Japan is also facing grave conflicts, including tense relationships with the Asian countries and
Russia due to historical issues and territorial disputes and the Okinawan conflict with the United States.
Japan is currently facing the need to handle these issues by approaching the matter as those who are
directly involved in these conflicts. Furthermore, in our daily lives, many sad life-consuming crimes are
taking place as a result of violations to human rights. The creation of a world with no wars or disputes is a
task which people cannot ignore if they yearn to move forward.
17. Even though the idea of a peaceful society and a peaceful world is becoming more prevalent each
and every day, the voter turnout rate is decreasing in a number of countries, and less people are
participating in democracy to play their role in society. To raise the awareness of each individual of being a
member of their society is an enormous challenge to face. The following figure shows the decrease in
number of people who are engaged in their democracies.
Figure 3.1. Fewer people engaged in their democracies
Parliamentary voter turnout, in 1950, 1980 and 2010
Note: Voter turnout is the total number of votes cast (valid or invalid) divided by the number of people registered to vote, expressed as a percentage. Where the data for countries were not consistently available in the same years, figures from the closest year are used.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
18. Among all, young people’s interest towards democracy is particularly important. For children to
grow up in an environment where they can fully explore their potential, it is essential to consider the
children’s standpoint as a priority instead of prioritizing the adults’ perspectives. In order to do so, it is
important to grasp the children’s view and opinion towards their own family and society accurately.
40
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Au
str
alia
Be
lgiu
m
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rwa
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Ne
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rla
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w Z
ea
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rma
ny
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Ja
pa
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Fin
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ingd
om
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ch R
epu
blic
Gre
ece
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da
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k R
ep
ub
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rtu
ga
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Ko
rea
Po
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xic
o
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ite
d S
tate
s
Luxem
bou
rg
De
nm
ark
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Sp
ain
Ru
ssia
n…
Hu
ng
ary
1950 1980 2010
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【Will you be happy at the age of 40?】
19. The recent Cabinet Office white paper has introduced an international survey result stating that,
compared to other countries, youth in Japan does not have much hope for their future. In Japan, youth who
have hope for their future is over 60% of the population, and those who think will be happy at the age of
forty is less than 70%. These percentage rates are the worst out of all countries. As the age gets older, the
pattern becomes more prominent. The number of people who answered that they were happy with
themselves or knew their strengths in Japan was the least out of the seven countries as well. The diffidence
and negativity of the Japanese youth became very distinctive.
Figure3.2. Self-reporting
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014a), International Survey of Youth Attitude 2013.
【Society Structure・Awareness of social co-operation】
20. The involvement in social issues and social participation in Japan, compared to other countries, is
comparatively low. Only 40% of Japanese youth desire to get involved in social issues to make their
community a better place. Additionally, only 30% think that their involvement will benefit the community.
In both cases, Japan has the lowest percentage rates.
Figure 3.3. Involvement in the public policy decision-making process
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.
61.6
86.4
91.1
89.8
82.4
83.3
90.8
0 20 40 60 80 100
Japan
Korea
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Sweden
Hopes for the Future(I have hope)
(%)66.2
81.6
86.8
86.1
86.2
87.4
82.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Japan
Korea
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Sweden
How the Future is Imagined(I will be happy when I am about 40 years old)
(%)
44.3
60.464.3
57.1
76.2
50.9 52.9
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Japan Korea UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Germany France Sweden
I want to be involved in social issues for the betterment of society
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52.9
45.0
52.6
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Japan Korea UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Germany France Sweden
My participation may be the catalyst for some change in social phenomena that I want changed
(%)
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【Cognition towards one`s own country?】
21. The Japanese are as proud of their own country as people from other countries. More people in
Japan are wishing to help their own country compared to other countries, and 70% of youth are proud to be
Japanese, which is similar to other countries. Japanese youth are especially proud of “public peace” in their
country, “history and cultural heritage”, “culture and art” and “science and technology” in order from the
highest to the lowest. Many Japanese youth have the desire to do something helpful for their own country,
and this trend is more prominent among youth aged between their late teens and early twenties.
Figure 3.4. Service to your country
Source: Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
22. Research has indicated the following:
< Change in Governance >
In the next 15 to 20 years, the power within the international community will diffuse.
Consequently, the number of diverse state and non-state actors, as well as city-like “sub-state”
actors, will increase, making governance play a more important role.
An increase in number of actors solving issues globally will complicate the decision-making
process because there will be a greater difference in values. (Lack of consensus between
advanced and developing countries will become more prominent.)
There are possibilities of advancement of multi-polarization, expansion of regionalism,
downturn in economy and division due to cumulative deficit.
The expansion of new communication technology is useful but also harmful for governance.
It will allow citizens to co-operate and participate in government, but the balance between the
strengthened IT network between individuals and the traditional government structure is
unresolved.
54.5
43.2 42.4 40.6
49.7
44.8
53.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Japan Korea UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Germany France Sweden
I would like to do something to serve my country(%)
52.4
57.3 57.8
50.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
13-15 16-19 20-24 25-29
I would like to do something to serve my country
Japan
Korea
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
France
Sweden
(%)
(age)
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< The possibility of increasing disputes >
Considering that the total population of Sub-Sahara Africa includes more ethnic and minority
groups in the younger generation, it is highly likely that there will continue to be disputes
within a country even after it matures, especially in East Asia and West Asia, which includes
the Sub-Sahara, China and India where water resources and farming soil are insufficient.
Additionally, the number of young men varies, and this can also potentially become a cause
for disputes within a country. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Somalia all have
unstable regimes.
The probability of disputes between nations is increasing due to the change in the
international system. The foundation arranged after the Cold War is starting to shift. For the
next 15 to 20 years, the United States will continue to play a crucial role for the world order.
If the United States starts to lose its power to provide security around the globe, it will cause
more instability especially in Asia and the Middle East.
If the international system that shapes the current support system collapses, it will increase the
risk of international disputes and intensify the competition between countries. However even
if these disputes arise, it is less likely to become a World War involving principal countries.
There are three different types of risks which could cause disputes among nations. One is the
change in prediction regarding principal countries including China, India and Russia. Another
is the intensifying assertion to claim natural resources. The last type of risk is the facilitation
of technology and measures used for war.
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
Is it necessary to create an opportunity to think about global issues at school? If so, in what
class would this be held? Would it be during contemporary history, world history, English,
or intercultural communications classes? If class time is limited to subjects related to exams
due to shortage in time, how can these issues be taught?
Many countries have faith that education can solve disputes around the world. What role
can education play to prevent crimes? If it is possible, what can schools and classrooms do?
When you officially become an adult, (in Japan, the age of 20) will you vote? Is there
anything the school can do to make every adult vote? Is there something that can be done
outside of school?
Is there an opportunity where students can express their ideas in school besides activities
related to student council? What kind of activities could allow teachers and students to work
co-operatively side by side?
What kind of opportunities are there outside of school that cultivate students` understanding
towards democracy? (E.g., student council, Youth Parliament, Model United Nations)
If there is a “Model OECD”, would you be interested in participating?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
4. SKILLS SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Current state of play
23. As the OECD countries transition from industrialized society to knowledge based society, and as
globalization and transformation into advanced technology make rapid progress, what specifically is an
ability to apply knowledge and skills to real life?
24. Technological revolution has brought changes to types of work and forms of employment.
Routine work, which is a typical repetitive work, has already transitioned from human work to computer
work. This tendency will continue to get stronger.
25. Accompanying the technological revolution, skills demanded from the labour market have been
changing in OECD countries. The graph below shows the transition in the demand of work form with the
United States in the 1960s as the standard. Over several decades, especially after 1990, demand for “non-
repetitive work without patterns / analytical tasks” and “non-repetitive work without patterns / interactive
work form” is increasing remarkably, and “repetitive work with patterns / handwork” is decreasing. In
Japan, similar tendency, such as the great change in demand for non-routine / interactive skills, could be
seen.
Figure 4.1. Trends in the demand for skills: United States
Source: OECD (2014a), PISA 2012 Results: Skills for Life (Volume V): Student Performance in Problem Solving.
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1960 1970 1980 1990 1998
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interactive
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
mean task inputs across occupation-industry cells, in percentiles of the 1960 task distribution
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Figure 4.2. Trends in the demand for skills: Japan
Source: OECD (2014a), PISA 2012 Results: Skills for Life (Volume V): Student Performance in Problem Solving.
26. In times when “non-repetitive work without patterns / analytical tasks and interactive work form”
are important, acquiring skills is becoming more important. People without sufficient skills are driven to
the outskirts of society, and if people with these skills do not exist, the country will not be able to survive
in a knowledge based economy or in a global competition. For these reasons, many countries are actively
working on “improving skills”, but many continue to face problems caused by mismatch of skills, skills
shortage and unemployment.
27. At the same time, skills to create innovation are required in any field. According to research
comparing and analysing university graduate students in Europe, more students who work at an
organisation which creates innovations five years after graduation and is involved in at least one process
that introduces innovation responded that creativity, critical thinking, communication, entrepreneurship
and adjustments in work are important compared to students who do not have that background. The graph
on the next page indicates that students who introduce innovations considered the followings important,
“finding new ideas / solutions”, “eagerness to present questions for ideas”, “presenting ideas to others” and
“being sensitive about chances and opportunities”.
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005
Nonroutine analytic
Nonroutine interactive
Routine cognitive
Routine manual
Nonroutine manual
percentage point changes in mean task inputs across occupations relative to 1960
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Figure 4.3. Critical skills for the most innovative jobs, by type of innovation
Tertiary-educated workers who contribute to their organisation's innovation activities face higher skill requirements than non-innovative graduates
Note: Odds ratios correspond to the likelihood of mentioning the skill as required for workers in innovative jobs, compared to workers in non-innovative jobs. Generalised odds ratio are computed from logistic regressions controlling for country and sector of activity. The five most critical skills are highlighted for each type of innovation.
Source: Avvisati, F., G. Jacotin and S. Vincent-Lancrin (2013), “Educating Higher Education Students for Innovative Economies: What International Data Tell Us”, Tuning Journal for Higher Education, No. 1, November 2013, pp. 223-240.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
28. The Future of Work: Jobs and skills in 2030 predicts the following about the changes in work and
skills in Britain in 2030:
Aging in the workplace
Increasing diversity in gender, race and ethnic groups in the working environment.
Income becomes unstable. Regional gap of personal income will broaden.
Voices demanding for work-life-balance (having a balance between work and private life)
will increase.
Practical use of Information Communication Technology (ICT) and out sourcing (to external
organizations), globalization and more flexible correspondence will be demanded in the
working environment.
Skills to assemble technology and correspond to different fields will become required. For
example, the ability to combine biotechnology, ICT, nanotechnology and cognitive science
will become required.
3.9
3.0
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.5
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2.4
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any type of innovation
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come with news ideas/solutions
willingness to question ideas
present ideas in audience
alertness to opportunities
analytical thinking
coordinate activities
acquire new knowledge
mobilize capacities of others
make your meaning clear
master of your own field
write reports or documents
write and speak a foreign…
use computers and internet
work productively with others
use time efficiently
perform under pressure
negociate
knowledge of other fields
assert your authority
product or service
2.9
2.3
1.9
1.9
2.3
1.9
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1.9
1.7
1.9
1.7
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1.8
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1.7
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technology or tools
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2.5
2.9
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2.4
2.5
2.5
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
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2.0
2.0
2.0
1 2 4
knowledge or methods
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
ICT will continue to develop and digital devices invented for utilizing massive amount of data
will gain attention.
Economic growth and globally influential power will shift to Asia.
New pioneer activities by companies that give considerations to the environment and
ecosystem friendly system will become important.
Shortage of resources and destruction of ecosystems will exhaust natural resources, and the
costs of resources will increase.
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
By what kind of activities in schools or societies can “non-repetitive working skills without
patterns”, “analytical working skills”, and “interactive working skills” required in the modern
society be attained?
By what kind of activities in schools or societies can the skills necessary for introducing
innovations, “finding new ideas /solutions”, “eagerness to present questions for ideas”,
“presenting ideas to others” and “being sensitive about chances and opportunities” be
attained?
What kind of reformation does society need for people who have sufficient skills required in
the society to be recognised in university and high school entrance exams or tests to get
hired?
By the time you become an adult, it has been said that along with hard work, time to spend
with family and hobby <work life balance> will have a higher demand. Do you have an
experience of improving your imagination and creativity skills through your free time instead
of just studying and working? Was the length of the “free time” sufficient in schools and
societies?
When you become an adult, it is likely that you will work with more elderly people, women
and migrants. What kind of skills and attitudes are necessary to work with a team of people
with different age, gender, and race to ultimately reach the best results while respecting each
other? How can children attain these skills from the schools or societies?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
5. MIND THE GAP
Current state of play
29. Despite the improvement of economic wealth, income inequality within OECD countries is
growing, on average. In addition to growing inequality, spending on social programmes is increasing
within all OECD countries.
30. The main cause of this inequality is the unbalanced distribution of wage and income. In
comparison to the low and middle income classes, the amount of income richer classes receive is
increasing rapidly. This is because workers with high-quality skills are receiving the benefits from
integration of trade and financial markets and technological advancements. On the other hand, workers
without high-quality skills are being left behind. Also, inequality and the gap in wages widened as the
number of part-time workers increased and the amount of unemployment allowances decreased.
31. In order to reduce these gaps, education can be an effective solution to raise skill levels.
However, in order to help poorer classes in ways of education and employment, it is necessary to reinforce
the supports.
32. From the graph below, it can be seen that the income gaps widened in various OECD countries
between 1985 and 2008. Mexico had the largest gap in both years followed by Turkey and the United
States. Denmark and Norway both had exceedingly low standards of income gap besides experiencing a
slight increase in the same time frame. However, we have to keep in mind that because the latest data is
from 2008, any impacts from the financial crisis that happened after 2008 are not taken into consideration.
If these impacts were considered, the results would be different from the data above.
Figure 5.1. Growing income inequality in many countries
Gini Coefficients for OECD countries, in 1985 and 2008
Note: The Gini Coefficient is an indicator of income inequality, where the higher the number, the greater the inequality.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
0.00
0.05
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Italy
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Fra
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Hun
gary
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m1985 2008
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
33. The following graph shows how the inequality of income is expanding while the amount of social
expenditure is increasing in OECD countries. The expansion of income inequality causes the increase of
governmental expenditure in order to support low income classes. The social expenditure includes
financial aid, housing allowances, and unemployment allowances. The country which had the highest
standard of social expenditure was Luxembourg, and the lowest were countries such as Mexico, Turkey
and South Korea.
Figure 5.2. Increasing social expenditure
Public and mandatory private social expenditure per capita, at constant purchasing power parity 2000 US dollars, 1980-2007
Note: Social expenditure is the provision by public (and private) institutions of benefits to, and financial contributions targeted at, households and individuals in order to provide support during circumstances which adversely affect their welfare, provided that the provision of the benefits and financial contributions constitutes neither a direct payment for a particular good or service nor an individual contract or transfer.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
34. The following graph shows the widening gap not only within countries but also the increasing
gap between affluent countries and impoverished countries. South Asia and Sub-Saharan African regions
hardly developed in terms of economy. The gap of the GDP rate per capita between affluent countries and
impoverished countries widened from the average of USD 8,000 to USD 44,000 between 1980 and 2010.
These inequality and poverty issues can potentially become subjects of dispute, and therefore it is
necessary to take on actions for assertive rectification and international co-operation.
0
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Me
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1980 1995 2007
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
Figure 5.3. The widening gap between richer and poorer regions
GDP per capita by region, 1980-2010
Note: Data presented in purchasing power parity (PPP) current international dollars. An international dollar would buy in the cited country a comparable amount of goods and services a US dollar would buy in the United States.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
35. Research indicates the following:
In Western countries, new poverty classes will appear, and the number of middle class
households will shrink.
It is predicted that the middle class will hold up most of the population within many
developing countries. The population of middle class households will increase up to 3.2
billion by 2020, and 4.9 billion by 2030. (World population estimated as 8.3 billion)
85% of the expansion of the middle class is expected to take place in Asia. Also, the
expansion of the middle class will have huge impacts on world’s social and economic
development.
In Asian countries and Latin American countries, the middle class will expand; however, the
inequality of income as a whole is expected to grow.
There is a possibility of expanding inequality of income in Asia and Africa. The higher
standard of income gap can be seen not only in countries but even more within social groups.
Absolute poverty is expected to decrease continuously. Today, there are one billion people
who live under extreme poverty and spend less than $1.25 a day. This number is starting to
decrease as the population grows. This number is predicted to decrease by 50% between 2010
and 2030. However, people who live under extreme poverty still remain, and the inequality
that exists between the rich and the poor is becoming immobilised.
Countries that materialise GDP growth but fail to invest in human development will
underestimate the importance of the quality of life in a long-term perspective. This will
ultimately lead to social and economic corruption in the country.
0
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25 000
30 000
35 000
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45 000
50 000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
North America OECD members Europe & Central Asia
Latin America & Caribbean Middle East & North Africa East Asia & Pacific
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
Article 26 of The Constitution of Japan states that, “All people shall have the right to
receive an equal education correspondent to their ability, as provided by law.”
(日本国憲法(和英対訳版): www.akon.sakura.ne.jp/constitution/ 引用) Education
grants people “opportunities”, which allow people to escape from poverty, making social
mobility possible. However, because the richer classes have easier access to better
education, there is a possibility that these inequalities will be reproduced through education.
Is it possible to design an educational system without reinforcing these gaps?
In this aging society where the working population is declining, who will be paying taxes in
the future?
In Japan where the expenditure for social security has been increasing due to the aging
society, how can investments for education be secured in the future?
Can you think of any wealth that can be measured by anything other than GDP which
measures economic wealth? Recently, there are attempts to measure other wealth, such as
happiness. Is there anything else you consider as a “country’s wealth” and if there is, “how
would you measure that?” For example, what kind of index would you consider in order to
determine which country seems most fascinating for you?
Think about both mutual and distinctive problems concerning inequality and poverty issues
domestically (high, low and middle class) and globally (advanced countries, developing
countries, and extremely impoverished countries).
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
6. MODERN FAMILIES
Current state of play
36. Since 1960, the forms of family in OECD countries have changed a lot. Not only did the
number of extended families including grandparents decrease, but the increase of divorce rate and increase
in number of people who choose to cohabit has also caused nuclear families to decrease. These changes are
relevant to the increasing number of single parent households and today, one fifth to one fourth of all
families that have children are single parent households. (OECD 2008) Social transitions, such as the
growth in migration, increasing diversity of cultures and values, social advancements of women, additional
lengthening of young people’s education and work training period, improving average life span, increasing
isolation of elderlies and less connection within the societies, are causing issues in various fields including
national finance, labour market and education. The graph below indicates that ageing will continue at a
rapid pace until 2100.
Figure 6.1. Average age going up into the next century
Median age of the population, in 1950, 2010 and 2100
Note: The median age is the age that divides the population in two parts of equal size, that is, there are as many persons with ages above the median as there are with ages below the median.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
37. Research indicates the following:
The number of one-person households is expected to increase facilitated by the ageing
society.
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Me
xico
Japa
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Po
rtu
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y
Au
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a
Sw
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land
Ital
y
Chi
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Slo
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ia
Can
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ece
Ind
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OE
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Ave
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Ge
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ny
Lux
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epu
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Fin
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herl
and
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Po
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Uni
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gd
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Ice
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Slo
vak
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New
Zea
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Den
ma
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Nor
wa
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Ire
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Be
lgiu
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Hun
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Est
on
ia
Uni
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Sta
tes
Rus
sia
n F
ede
ratio
n
So
uth
Afr
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Wo
rld
Ave
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e
1950 2010 2100
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
Figure 6.2. One-person households
Projected % increase in numbers of one-person households in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030
Note: The periods over which changes are projected are as follows: Australia (2006 to 2026), Austria (2007 to 2030), France (2005 to 2030), Germany (2007 to 2025), Japan (2005 to 2030), Korea (2007 to 2030), Netherlands (2009 to 2030), New Zealand (2006 to 2031), Norway (2002 to 2030), Switzerland (2005 to 2030), United Kingdom (2006 to 2031) and United States (2000 to 2025).
Source: OECD (2011), The Future of Families to 2030: A synthesis report.
It is estimated that single-parent households (households with only one parent, like single
mother) will increase due to the changes in forms of family.
Figure 6.3. Single-parent families
Projected % increase in numbers of single-parent households in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030
Note and source: see Figure 6.2.
The number of married couples without children is expected to increase, facilitated by the
declining birth rate and improving average life span.
17
26 28 2934 35
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Austr
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Norw
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nd
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
Figure 6.4. Couples without children
Projected % increase in numbers of couples without children in selected OECD countries, from early-mid-2000s to 2025-2030
Note and source: see Figure 6.2.
There is a great difference in fluctuation of population among different regions and countries.
For example, Japan is already experiencing population decrease, and the population is
expected to continue decreasing at an even faster pace. On the other hand, the population in
the United States today is approximately 300 million, but this number is estimated to reach
440 million by 2050. In Europe, the population is expected to continue increasing until 2030
but will start to decrease after that until around 2050. Also, the percentage of young people
out of the population as a whole is predicted to decrease between now and 2030 (OECD,
2011).
Due to the advancement of medical treatment, the average life span is expected to improve six
additional years by 2050, and the population of those between 80 and 90 years old is likely to
increase.
The growing participation rate of the older generation (above 65 years old) to the labour
market will be observed. Companies will discover advantages of hiring those people, and they
will find different ways to keep those employees.
Increasing number of old people are expected to enjoy “healthy ageing”, but many will
continue to work after retirement age because the pension does not cover all of their spending.
-3
1014
28
37 3842
56
72
Ja
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Ne
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Austr
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New
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Kore
a
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
Figure 6.5. Population ageing and labour force participation in OECD countries
Note: Labour force participation rates are for men and women combined.
Source: OECD (2011), The Future of Families to 2030: A synthesis report.
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
Decreasing number of children means decreasing number students at school. Some of you
might have experienced school integrations or school closures. Have you ever felt like there
were less choices of school due to school integrations and school closures? We can consider
the population decline a "chance" instead of considering it an issue. This is because each
student is granted more resources and opportunities to make new innovations. Brainstorm
ideas for a new school, using examples from other countries. For example, designing a new
school or assembling all students from preschool to high school in one area.
Students who have none or only few siblings, never interacted with their grandparents and
are born between comparatively older parents are expected to increase. What does this mean
for school education? Will there be a great difference in life experiences? If so, what can the
schools and societies do about that?
To gratify old people's educational and cultural needs, what roles can the schools and the
societies play?
Is it possible to construct a system that will allow anybody to go back to school according to
the needs of different life styles and career paths?
There are many people who suffer from loneliness and sense of alienation after moving to
urban areas. What can the schools and the societies do or should do to solve these problems?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
7. INFINITE CONNECTION
Current state of play
38. Computers and Information Technology has become part of our daily lives and we are expected
to keep up with its rapid changes more than ever. Today, we have easy quick access to massive amounts of
information. This phenomenon is starting to influence education and skill developments. Today, great
investments are made to create an environment where internet and computers are accessible in a lot of
countries. Yet, there are still a lot of concerns and problems remaining regarding the use of technology in
education.
39. The increase in number of Global Internet activity can be observed in the following graph.
Figure 7.1. Global Internet activity rising exponentially
Global IP traffic, 1984-2014 (projected)
Note: Internet Protocol (IP) traffic, is the amount of data exchanged between different IP addresses (unique numbers assigned to every device using the Internet). This is essentially a measure of the volume of Internet activity. Terabytes are a unit of digital data equal to 1012 bytes. The maximum figure on the y axis of 50 million terabytes is equal to 50 exabytes.
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
40. The increase in activities taken place on the internet throughout computers and smartphones,
have led to issues such as “Cyber Bullying” as shown in the graph below. (Figure on next page: The
percentage of children who have experienced Cyber Bullying, in the year 2010.)
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EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
Figure 7.2. Cyber bullying: An emerging and troubling challenge
Percentage of children surveyed reporting being bullied online and offline, in 2010
Source: OECD (2013), Trends Shaping Education 2013.
Prediction and Suggestion for Education in 2030
41. Research indicates the following:
More companies and organisations will be utilising Broadband technology. Because of this,
there will be a dramatic increase in the number of situations where you will be working or
studying in locations far apart.
There will be more flexibility in time and space according to each person’s needs to work and
study. The boarder-line between “working” and “studying” will be obscure, and these two
will become inseparable. “Learning while working” and “Working while learning”. There
will even be an era in which working will directly tie-in to studying, and studying will
directly tie-in to working.
Social Networking Services will expand even more. On the one hand, this will make the
connections between family, friends and other people stronger. However on the other hand, it
can also inhibit those connections.
Arrangements of ubiquitous (able to use anywhere at any time) environment and ICT
environment will continue, and the opportunity of “Open Education” will increase and
develop even more. In order for universities and companies to gather the smartest people from
around the world, the opportunities to use “Open Education” will increase. There will also be
a greater chance for people in developing countries to be able to receive high school
education and acquire expertise, skills and knowledge without going to university and for no
charge.
“Online education by companies” will increase. A lot of companies will even start to establish
their own educational institutions. “Open Education” does not only expand the “freedom of
taking classes”. One of the main features is “the expansion of freedom where anybody can
teach”.
05
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Bullied online Bullied, online or offline
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
It is estimated that Information Technology will be entering an era of “high capacity data “.
The processing speed and data cumulative dose will mostly be free, and the networks and
Clouds will make access from all around the world possible to spread its services.
While Internet Technology is fulfilling sustainable economic yield and improving the quality
of our daily lives, minimising natural resource consumption and environmental pollution are
crucial and relevant to the existence ability of a big city.
Social Media and Cyber Security will become a new enormous market. The growth and
expansion of this field will promote the use of Internet Technology to countries and societies.
Meanwhile, it also strikes us with the issue of fighting against a whole new threat.
Newly produced technology (such as 3D printing and robots) and automation technology may
change its function, within both advanced countries and developing countries. There is a
possibility that workers who do not have technological skills or lack sufficient abilities will
exceed in advanced countries, which may then lead to unemployment and inequality within
the country.
What issues could education systems face in 2030? For example…
Thinking about the problems below, please think about the new school image and the form of
education in 2030.
Massive amount of information can be stored on the internet, and we can easily upload and
download on the internet today.
We are able to look up what we learn at school on the internet. However this does not
ensure the “credibility” of the information. How can Media Literacy, the ability to
determine reliable and unreliable information, be acquired in schools and societies?
There are also concerns over how easily our personal information can be leaked online.
How can we bring children’s attention to the risks involved in the use of internet? Can
Internet Literacy, such as protecting personal information, be developed within schools,
societies and families?
Issues caused by anonymous defamations and hurtful comments online have become
prevalent. What can we do to eliminate Cyber Bullying?
How can “Online Courses” be utilised in schools and societies? If you have any experience
that can potentially turn around the whole concept of “schools” we are aware of, please
share them with us. For example, is it possible to send what one student had researched, to
another student online and have that student teach the material to other students?
Making use of Social Networking Sites (Facebook, Twitter, etc.) or portable devices
(Smartphones, etc.), we are currently able to access information and communicate without
any limits. However, at times, this can cause children to lose focus from studying. Please
think about the “issues and dangers” and “possibilities and its positive aspects” of using
such devices at school. Is it possible to utilise such devices for classes, homework and
exams?
English is the most common language used on the internet but there are many different
languages used as well. What can we do to take an advantage of this?
EDU/EDPC(2014)16/ANN1
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Avvisati, F., G. Jacotin and S. Vincent-Lancrin (2013), “Educating Higher Education Students for
Innovative Economies: What International Data Tell Us”, Tuning Journal for Higher Education, No.
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Coleman, D. (2009), “The Impact of Immigration on the Populations of the Developed World and their
Ethnic Composition”, http://gt2030.com/2012/08/03/the-impact-of-immigration-on-the-populations-
of-the-developed-world-and-their-ethnic-composition/.
EUISS (2012), Global Trends 2030 – Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World,
http://europa.eu/espas/pdf/espas_report_ii_01_en.pdf.
Japan Cabinet Office (2014a), International Survey of Youth Attitude 2013.
Japan Cabinet Office (2014b), “White Paper on Children and Young People 2014”.
Matsumoto, H. (2012), “Thinking beyond 2014”, presentation from the 31 July-4 August 2012 Tohoku
School workshop, hosted in Iwaki, Japan, www.oecd.org/tokyo/topic/oecd-
tohokuschooljapanese/20120731_PPT_Mr.Matsumoto_JP.pdf.
National Intelligence Council (2012), Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.
OECD (2008), OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030, OECD Publishing.
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