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SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL CREDIT OPINION 10 May 2018 Update Analyst Contacts David Rogovic +1.212.553.4196 AVP-Analyst [email protected] Patrick Cooper +1.212.553.3811 Associate Analyst [email protected] Mauro Leos +1.212.553.1947 VP-Sr Credit Officer/ Manager [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable Regular update Summary Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile is supported by large financial buffers, relatively high wealth levels, and significant international reserves, which limit external vulnerabilities. Those credit features mitigate credit challenges related to a policy response that has been unable to offset the impact of low energy prices on government revenue. A steady rise in government debt ratios has contributed to an erosion of sovereign creditworthiness. Exhibit 1 Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile is determined by four factors Economic strength Institutional strength Fiscal strength Susceptibility to event risk Low Low Moderate (-) Very Low (+) Baa3 - Ba2 Economic resiliency Low Government financial strength Low (+) Government bond rating range Source: Moody's Investors Service Credit strengths » High income level relative to peers » Financial buffers in the Heritage and Stabilization Fund » Robust international reserves position Credit challenges » Large fiscal deficits and rising debt ratios amid limited fiscal consolidation » Poor quality of macroeconomic data » Relatively weak policy execution capacity This document has been prepared for the use of Indumathi Dasaratharaman and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminated unless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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Page 1: stable CLIENT SERVICES Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 · 5/10/2018  · Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable Regular update Summary Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile

SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

CREDIT OPINION10 May 2018

Update

Analyst Contacts

David Rogovic [email protected]

Patrick Cooper +1.212.553.3811Associate [email protected]

Mauro Leos +1.212.553.1947VP-Sr Credit Officer/[email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1stableRegular update

SummaryTrinidad and Tobago's credit profile is supported by large financial buffers, relatively highwealth levels, and significant international reserves, which limit external vulnerabilities. Thosecredit features mitigate credit challenges related to a policy response that has been unable tooffset the impact of low energy prices on government revenue. A steady rise in governmentdebt ratios has contributed to an erosion of sovereign creditworthiness.

Exhibit 1

Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile is determined by four factors

Economic

strength

Institutional

strength

Fiscal

strength

Susceptibility

to event risk

Low Low Moderate (-) Very Low (+)

Baa3 - Ba2

Economic resiliency

Low

Government financial strength

Low (+)

Government bond rating range

Source: Moody's Investors Service

Credit strengths

» High income level relative to peers

» Financial buffers in the Heritage and Stabilization Fund

» Robust international reserves position

Credit challenges

» Large fiscal deficits and rising debt ratios amid limited fiscal consolidation

» Poor quality of macroeconomic data

» Relatively weak policy execution capacity

This document has been prepared for the use of Indumathi Dasaratharaman and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

Page 2: stable CLIENT SERVICES Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 · 5/10/2018  · Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable Regular update Summary Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

Rating outlookThe stable outlook incorporates our expectation that capital revenue associated to asset sales would help reduce governmentborrowing requirements and lead to relatively stable government debt ratios around 64% of GDP. The stable outlook captures thepresence of sizeable fiscal buffers that limit downside credit risks, as well as the government's ample access to a relatively deepdomestic financial market.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeAn economic policy response that proves effective in reversing the rise in government debt levels would be supportive of a ratingupgrade. A sustained increase in oil and gas production, which materially improves medium-term economic growth prospects wouldpotentially lead to an upgrade.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeThe rating would likely be downgraded if limited fiscal consolidation leads to deficits significantly higher than those we currentlyenvision. A material reduction of fiscal buffers -- i.e., assets held in the Heritage Stabilization Fund -- would undermine creditworthinesslead to a downgrade.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Trinidad & Tobago[1] 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F 2019F

Real GDP (% change) 1.3 1.0 -0.3 1.5 -6.0 -1.5 2.1 2.2

Inflation (CPI, % change, Dec/Dec) 9.3 5.2 5.7 4.7 3.1 1.9 2.5 3.0

Gen. gov. financial balance/GDP (%)[2] -2.1 -3.1 -2.6 -1.7 -5.3 -8.5 -3.4 -3.6

Gen. gov. primary balance/GDP (%)[2] -0.4 -1.4 -0.8 0.5 -2.8 -5.4 0.0 -0.2

Gen. gov. debt/GDP (%)[2] 39.1 38.5 40.5 47.7 58.5 62.7 63.1 63.6

Gen. gov. debt/revenues (%)[2] 130.1 123.7 120.4 133.7 195.8 247.5 232.5 234.7

Gen. gov. interest payment/revenues (%)[2] 6.0 5.3 5.3 6.0 8.4 12.0 12.5 12.5

Current account balance/GDP (%) 13.2 20.4 14.5 3.8 -11.8 -3.5 -3.0 -2.9

External debt/CA receipts (%)[3][4] 68.5 62.5 80.1 116.6 177.2 137.4 120.6 121.8

External vulnerability indicator (EVI) [5][6] 14.8 16.4 17.9 14.8 14.5 16.5 19.1 20.9

[1] Economic forecasts based on an estimated average price for the benchmark Brent crude oil of $65/b in 2018 and $63/b in 2019. Our broad expectations are that prices will remain

volatile within a range of $45-$65 per barrel

[2] Central government; Fiscal years ending September 30, e.g. 2010 refers to fiscal year 2009/10

[3] Current Account Receipts

[4] Fiscal years ending September 30, e.g. 2010 refers to fiscal year 2009/10

[5] (Short-Term External Debt + Currently Maturing Long-Term External Debt + Total Nonresident Deposits Over One Year)/Official Foreign Exchange Reserves

[6] Excludes short-term external debt and total nonresident deposits over one year; External debt amorization data is public sector only

Sources: National Statistical Authorities, Moody's Investors Service

Detailed credit considerationsWe assess Trinidad and Tobago’s economic strength as “Low” to reflect the slow pace of economic growth in recent years and theeconomy’s relatively small size – factors that are partly offset by high income levels. Real GDP growth contracted by 0.1% between2010 and 2017 as a result of the decline in oil prices, maturing oil and gas fields, and because of repeated disruptions to gas production.Growth prospects remain subdued given the sluggish recovery in the non-energy sector, while an increase in gas production and higherprices support activity in the energy sector. We have set the score of economic strength at “Low,” which is below the indicative score of“Low (+),” to account for the limited prospects of further economic diversification away from oil.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

This document has been prepared for the use of Indumathi Dasaratharaman and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

The score for institutional strength is set at “Low,” which is below the indicative score of “Moderate (+).” In addition to quantitativegovernance indicators, the final assessment incorporates the lack of timely macroeconomic data to inform policy as well as weak fiscalpolicy execution capacity. Although it remains a constraint on effective policy execution, some progress has been made with respect tomacroeconomic data reporting which, if sustained, could support institutional strength over time.

The fiscal strength score is set at “Moderate (-),” below the indicative score of “Moderate” because debt burden and debt affordabilityindicators do not fully capture the heavy reliance of government revenue on the energy sector and on capital revenue such as assetsales, which cannot be sustained over an extended period. On balance, the country's rising debt burden is offset by low foreign-currency debt and moderate debt affordability indicators. The government has accumulated savings in the Heritage and StabilizationFund (HSF) of around 27% of GDP, which it has used to help finance the government deficit, limit the increase in debt and keepinterest costs down.

We assess Trinidad and Tobago's susceptibility to event risk as “Very Low (+),” driven by government liquidity risk, reflecting limitedrisks due to ample access to a relatively deep domestic financial market. Indications of foreign exchange shortages as well as theemergence of a parallel market for US dollars suggest downward pressure on the exchange rate. External pressures, however, arecontained given a robust international reserves position at 9 months of imports and an External Vulnerability Indicator (EVI) of 19%.The final score for external vulnerability risk is set at “Very Low (-),” which is below the indicative score of “Very Low (+),” to accountfor improved current account prospects based on a recovery of the oil price as well increased gas production. We assess Trinidad andTobago's banking sector risk as “Very Low (-)” to reflect little risk of contingent liabilities stemming from the banking system, whichremains well capitalized, profitable, and liquid. Political risk is “Very Low,” reflecting limited risks of political instability and popularsupport for maintaining the Heritage and Stabilization Fund.

Recent developmentsEnergy sector drives economic recovery; performance of non-energy sector remains weak

The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago’s quarterly index of real economic activity shows an expansion in the energy sector beginningin Q3 2017, while output in the non-energy sector continues to contract. The recovery in energy-sector activity reflects higher pricesand increase production of natural gas. New production at the Juniper platform drove an increase in natural gas production, while crudeoil production has faced production challenges. Limited data for Q4 2017 point to a continuation of this trend. Natural gas productionincreased 6.5% year-over-year in the last quarter of 2017, crude petroleum production contracted 2% year-over-year. Measures ofactivity in the non-energy sector, such as new motor vehicle sales and cement production, contracted 15% and 7% year-over-year,respectively.

Fiscal deficit narrows on higher energy prices and expenditure restraint

The central government’s fiscal balance improved in the first quarter of FY 2017-18, according to the Central Bank of Trinidad andTobago’s March Economic Bulletin. Based on data through the first three months of the fiscal year, from October 2017 to December2017, the fiscal deficit narrowed to TT$ 228 million, compared with a TT$ 2,468 million deficit in the same period a year ago. Withoil prices above $50 per barrel, the government will collect the Supplemental Petroleum Tax (SPT), while we also expect the 12.5%royalty rate announced in the FY 2017-18 budget to boost energy-related revenue. The improvement in the government’s fiscal balancethrough the first quarter, driven by higher global energy prices, if continue, will result in a smaller fiscal deficit in the current fiscal year.

The narrowing of the fiscal deficit reflects the boost from higher energy prices, increased natural gas production, and expenditurerestraint. Energy-related revenue were up by 92% year-over-year in the first quarter of FY 2017-18, reaching 22% of the full-yearbudget target. In FY 2016-17, energy-related revenue were just 17.6% of the full-year budget target. Higher energy-related revenueare driven by a combination of increased natural gas production, which rose 7% year-over-year in the first quarter, and higher oilprices – WTI crude averaged $55.5 per barrel between October and December 2017, a 13% year-over-year increase. Non-energyrevenue increased 9% year-over-year during the first three months of the fiscal year driven by increased tax collection. Governmentexpenditures declined 11% year-over-year, with lower spending across most categories, including spending on goods and services aswell as transfers and subsidies.

3 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

This document has been prepared for the use of Indumathi Dasaratharaman and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

Current account deficit narrows, but international reserves declined

The central bank reported the current account deficit narrowed to 3.8% of GDP through the first nine months of 2017, a significantreduction from the 9.4% of GDP deficit during the same period in 2016. Energy exports, which make up an estimated 78% of totalexports drove the 20% year-over-year increase in total exports. Meanwhile, imports of goods were nearly stagnant in the first ninemonths of 2017 over the same period a year earlier, as capital imports contracted 41% year-over-year. The financial account recordednet inflows of just $69 million, compared with $1,580 million in the same period a year ago. The decline in net inflows mostly reflectedin a reversal of net portfolio investment, which recorded $164 million outflow in the first nine months of 2017, compared with netinflows of $1,108 million a year earlier. The overall balance of payments recorded a deficit of $959.2 million, or 5.8% of GDP. As aresult, reserves declined to $7,987.9 million at the end of December 2017, representing 9 months of imports.

4 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

Rating methodology and scorecard factors

Rating factorsSub-factor

weightingIndicator

Indicative factor

scoreFinal factor score

Factor 1: Economic strength L+ L

Growth Dynamics 50%

Average real GDP growth (2012-2021F) 0.5

Volatility in real GDP growth (standard deviation, 2007-2016) 3.4

WEF Global Competitiveness index (2017) 4.1

Scale of the economy 25%

Nominal GDP (US$ billion, 2016) 22.3

National income 25%

GDP per capita (PPP, US$, 2016) 31,770

Automatic adjustments [-3; 0] Scores applied

Credit boom 0

Factor 2: Institutional strength M+ L

Institutional framework and effectiveness 75%

Worldwide Government Effectiveness index (2016) 0.2

Worldwide Rule of Law index (2016) -0.2

Worldwide Control of Corruption index (2016) -0.3

Policy credibility and effectiveness 25%

Inflation level (%, 2012-2021F) 2.7

Inflation volatility (standard deviation, 2007-2016) 2.9

Automatic adjustments [-3; 0] Scores applied

Track record of default 0

Economic Resiliency (F1xF2) M L

Factor 3: Fiscal strength M M-

Debt burden 50%

General government debt/GDP (2016) 58.5

General government debt/revenue (2016) 195.8

Debt affordability 50%

General government interest payments/revenue (2016) 8.4

General government interest payments/GDP (2016) 2.5

Automatic adjustments [-6; +4] Scores applied

Debt trend (2013-2018F) -2

Foreign currency debt/general government debt (2016) -2

Other non-financial public sector debt/GDP (2016) 0

Public sector assets/general government debt (2016) 1

Government financial strength (F1xF2xF3) M L+

Factor 4: Susceptibility to event risk Max. function VL+ VL+

Political risk VL VL

Worldwide voice & accountability index (2016) 0.6

Government liquidity risk VL+ VL+

Gross borrowing requirements/GDP 9.3

Non-resident share of general government debt (%) 26.4

Market-Implied Ratings Baa3

Banking sector risk VL- VL-

Average baseline credit assessment (BCA) --

Total domestic bank assets/GDP 93

Banking system loan-to-deposit ratio 49

External vulnerability risk VL+ VL-

(Current account balance + FDI Inflows)/GDP -12.9

External vulnerability indicator (EVI) 19.1

Net international investment position/GDP --

Government bond rating range (F1xF2xF3xF4) Baa1 - Baa3 Baa3 - Ba2

Assigned foreign currency government bond rating Ba1

Rating factors grid - Trinidad & Tobago

Note: While information used to determine the grid mapping is mainly historical, our ratings incorporate expectations around future metrics and risk developments

that may differ from the ones implied by the rating range. Thus, the rating process is deliberative and not mechanical, meaning that it depends on peer

comparisons and should leave room for exceptional risk factors to be taken into account that may result in an assigned rating outside the indicative rating range.

For more information please see our Sovereign Bond Rating Methodology.

Footnotes: (1) Indicative factor score: rating sub-factors combine with the automatic adjustments to produce an Indicative factor score for every rating factor, as

detailed in Moody’s Sovereign Bond Methodology. (2) Final factor score: where additional analytical considerations exist, Indicative factor scores are augmented

to produce a Final factor score. Guidance on additional factors typically considered can be found in Moody’s Sovereign Bond Methodology; details on country-

specific considerations are provided in Moody’s research. (3) Rating range: Factors 1: Economic strength, and Factor 2: Institutional strength, combine with equal

weight into a construct we designate as Economic Resiliency or ER. An aggregation function then combines ER and Factor 3: Fiscal strength (FS), following a non-

linear pattern where FS has higher weight for countries with moderate ER and lower weight for countries with high or low ER. As a final step, Factor 4, a country’s susceptibility to event risk, is a constraint which can only lower the preliminary government financial strength rating range as given by combining the first three

factors. (4) 15 Ranking categories: VH+, VH, VH-, H+, H, H-, M+, M, M-, L+, L, L-, VL+, VL, VL- (5) Indicator value: if not explicitly stated otherwise, the indicator

value corresponds to the latest data available.

5 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

This document has been prepared for the use of Indumathi Dasaratharaman and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

Page 6: stable CLIENT SERVICES Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 · 5/10/2018  · Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable Regular update Summary Trinidad and Tobago's credit profile

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

Moody's related publications

» Sector In-Depth: Small island credit profiles resilient to near-term climate shocks, but climate trends pose longer-term risks,December 2017

» Issuer Comment: 2018 budget primarily relies on fiscal consolidation through windfall revenues and increased tax collection,October 2017

» Issuer Comment: Mid-year budget review signals benefits from higher oil prices, but fiscal challenges remain sizeable, June 2017

» Credit Analysis: Government of Trinidad and Tobago, May 2017

» Country Statistics: Government of Trinidad and Tobago, November 2017

» Outlook: Latin America & Caribbean: 2018 outlook stable as growth momentum offsets rising debt and policy uncertainty, January2018

» Rating Methodology: Sovereign Bond Ratings, December 2016

To access any of these reports, click on the entry above. Note that these references are current as of the date of publication of thisreport and that more recent reports may be available. All research may not be available to all clients.

6 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE SOVEREIGN AND SUPRANATIONAL

© 2018 Moody’s Corporation, Moody’s Investors Service, Inc., Moody’s Analytics, Inc. and/or their licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All rights reserved.

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REPORT NUMBER 1123407

7 10 May 2018 Government of Trinidad & Tobago - Ba1 stable: Regular update

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