Stability in Cold War Africa• External

– Colonial Interests and Involvement– Superpower Competition

• Pan-African– The Organization of African Unity (OAU) Pledge– Respect Colonial Borders– Non-interference

• Domestic– Authoritarian Regimes– Reasonable Economic Growth (1960s and 1970s).

• Result: Relative Stability in Africa• Very “Mearsheimer-esque”

Anarchy in Post Cold War Africa

• External: Withdrawal of US and Soviet Support• Regional: Very Weak Regional Institutions• Domestic:

– Collapse of State Authority and Transitions to New Political Regimes.

– Economic Collapse—Negative Per Capita GDP Growth during 1980s and 1990s.

• Emergence of Pervasive Conflict.• Also Very “Mearsheimer-esque”

Three Paths To Stability

• Regional Integration– OAU, Economic Community of West African

States (ECOWAS)

• External Intervention

• Internal Balance of Power

Zaire: The Mobutu Regime• Mobutu the Dictator,

1965-1990• US Support as Bulwark

Against Socialism in Africa.

• End of Cold War Ends Support

• Economic Collapse– GDP growth negative since

1989, estimated at -8.0 percent in 1992.

• Political CollapseMobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, or, The all-conquering warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake

War in the Democratic Republic of Congo

• Precipitating Causes Lie in 1994 Rwandan Conflict.

• Refugees and Hutu Extremists in Zaire

• Rwanda and Uganda join Forces with Zairian Tutsis to Overthrow Mobutu

• Install Laurent Kabila as President of Democratic Republic of Congo

• Kabila Alienates Domestic Support, and Does Not Control Hutu Extremists

• Rwanda and Uganda Begin to Support Congolese Union for Democracy (RCD) Against Kabila Laurent Kabila

• Angola Supports Kabila– Involved in Civil War

with UNITA

– Mobutu had supported UNITA, thus Angolan Government Supports Kabila and UNITA supports the RCD

• Namibia: Allied with Angola, thus Fighting in support of Kabila

• Zimbabwe: Rivalry with Rwanda and Uganda, thus Fighting in support of Kabila

• 700,000 Refugees• 2 Million Dead (?)• Ceasefire, July 1999• UN Peacekeepers Put

in Place (5,537)• Fighting Continues

Bigger Point 1

• Collapse of the Cold War Created Anarchic Environment in Large Parts of Africa.

• Lack Effective Regional Institutions.

• Conducive to Balance of Power Politics.

• Increasing Importance of the United Nations.

Bigger Point 3

• Mearsheimer Right, but for the Wrong Continent?• In the Absence of the Liberal Conditions

– Prosperity

– Representative Democracy

– Institutions

The End of the Cold War has Ushered in a Period of Anarchy in African Politics.

What Can Be Done?

Finally, Where Was the UN?

• During the War, Role Restricted to Humanitarian Aid

• Since the War, Involved in Peacekeeping and Peacemaking

• What About Rwanda?

• Implications for Liberal Vision?