st. john's metro · 2013. 4. 19. · st. john's is an economic driver. st. john's...

State of the Economy St. John's Metro

Published by:

Department of Economic Development, Tourism & Culture City of St. John's

Email: [email protected]

Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, the City of St. John’s does not guarantee, warrant or make any representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated. Publication date: April 2013

St. John's is an economic driver.

St. John's CMA’s1 share of total provincial GDP is about 50%.

In 1992, 32.1% of the NL population lived in the St. John's CMA. By 2012, that had risen to 39.1%

1 St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John’s and several neighbouring communities. St. John’s CMA may also be referred to as St. John’s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of St. John’s CMA http://stats.gov.nl.ca/Maps/

Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

50.0%

50.0%

St. John's CMA Share of Provincial GDP - 2012

CMA Other NL

St. John's metro economic indicators positive

2011 2012e Retail trade +6.5% +6.9% Labour force +3.2% +4.3% Employment +4.5% +3.6% Unemployment rate 6.6% 7.2% Personal income +7.7% +7.8% Real GDP (2007$M) +1.1% -0.4%

Table shows change from previous year. 2012 data is a preliminary estimate Source: Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

Economic growth and oil production Real GDP growth in the St. John’s CMA is more sensitive to changes in oil

production. The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the province’s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA.


Source: CNLOPB

Oil production is projected to decline in the long term, impacting local and provincial economies.

Millions of dollars in proposed and ongoing projects for St. John's.

Project ≥ $20 M

Henry Bell Developments - two condo projects including parking garage, Duckworth/Henry St.

$150

Long term care facility, Pleasantville $100

Convention Centre expansion, New Gower St. * $53

Fortis office building, New Gower St./Springdale St. $50

Eastport Properties office building, Water St. $46

Deacon Investments office building, Job St. $40

Hotels (Water St., Kenmount Rd., Stavanger Dr.) $38

St. John's International Airport, Cat 3 Landing System $26

Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects. * Value of Convention Centre expansion – main building Source: City of St. John's

Major projects in the province are making significant investments and boosting the local economy.

Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects. Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

• Hebron Offshore Oil Development, $14 B • Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility, $4.25 B ($US) • Hibernia Southern Extension Unit, $1.7 B • Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls, $6.2 B • Iron Ore Company of Canada Mine Expansion, $828 M • Suncor Energy / Terra Nova Expenditures, $254 M • Husky Energy / South White Rose Extension, $1.2 B • Tata Steel Direct Shipping Iron Ore Project, $630 M • Alderon Iron Ore Corp. Kami Project, $1.273 B

In 2012, the CMA recorded its 11th consecutive annual population increase.

Source: Population estimates, Department of Finance (Economic Research and Analysis Division)

160

170

180

190

200

210

Thou

sand

sPopulation - St. John's CMA

1986 - 2012

201,038

173,258

The population of the St. John’s CMA increased 13.9% between the 2001 and 2011 census years. During this time period the population of the communities surrounding the capital city grew by 23.1% while the population of the City of St. John’s increased 7.0%.

Source: Statistics Canada


16.5

9.2

20.7

11.0

7.1

14.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

0-4 20-34 65+

Population Growth Rates by Age Category, St. John's CMA Compared to National Level, 1996-2011 (%)

CMA Can

Age Category

Young Children, Young Adults and Seniors in St. John's CMA had a faster population growth rate than Canada between 2006 and 2011

Approximately one in four (26.9%) students enrolled at MUN in 2012 were from out of province (4,905 out of 18,236). The number of other Canadian students enrolled at MUN doubled since 2003. Meanwhile, the number of international students increased by 195% during the same time period and increased 19.0% in 2012.

Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador (MUN).

1598 1797 1991

23732602

2852 2861 30213196 3211

574 689 797 864 978 948 1143 1273 14231694

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Number of International Students and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN 2003 - 2012

Other Canadian

International

We have strengths in several areas.

Ocean Technology One of the fastest growing segments of the provincial

economy, based largely in the metro area.

Tourism Iconic tourism destination, growth sector.

Arts & Culture A cultural capital.

Offshore Energy Fueling local economy, St. John's main service centre.

We are a city of small business. Half of our businesses have less than 5 employees.



Increasing labour force participation key component in long term economic growth.

72.3%

66.7% 64.7%

63.4%

Annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA shows steady decline since 1996. The 2012 unemployment rate is half of the rate reported in 1996.


14.0

13.5 12.2

10.29.5

9.2

9.29.9

9.0

8.88.1

6.9

7.88.3

7.7

6.6

7.2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1619

96

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Annual Unemployment Rate (%)St. John's CMA 1996 - 2012


Total employment in the St. John’s CMA increased by 10,000+ over the past three years and almost 30,000 since 1996. The majority of employment growth over the past three years was full-time (97.1%). The number employed as a percentage of the total labour force increased from 86% in 1996 to 92.8% in 2012.

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Total # of People Employed in St. John's CMA

80.6

109.2

Thou

sand

s

Incomes are on the rise, increasing 51% since January 2005, 13.4% over the past two years and 6.2% in the past year.

Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

$605

$658

$640

$748$781

$805 $860

$913

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Average January Weekly EarningsSt. John's CMA

2005 - 2012

Median total income, all census families, by metropolitan area

$ $ Change % Change

Year 2006 2008 2010 06 to10 06 to10

Ottawa 84,000 90,990 94,700 10,700 12.7% Calgary 83,500 91,570 89,490 5,990 7.2% Edmonton 79,300 88,190 87,930 8,630 10.9% Regina 72,200 81,480 84,890 12,690 17.6% Saskatoon 68,300 77,740 80,570 12,270 18.0% St. John's 63,100 72,120 78,210 15,110 23.9% Halifax 67,600 74,040 76,500 8,900 13.2% Quebec 67,100 73,780 76,450 9,350 13.9% Winnipeg 64,700 70,510 72,050 7,350 11.4% Toronto 63,800 68,120 68,110 4,310 6.8% Vancouver 62,900 68,670 67,090 4,190 6.7% Montreal 60,800 65,660 67,010 6,210 10.2% Canada 63,600 68,860 69,860 6,260 9.8%


St. John’s had the largest increase in median family incomes among major Canadian cites between 2006 and 2010. The median family income in the St. John’s CMA rose by $15,110 or 23.9% compared to the Canadian average increase of $6,260 or 9.8%.

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Driven by gains in personal income and high levels of consumer confidence, retail sales have increased by $1.72 billion over the past 10 years (+86.7%).


1.98

2.27

2.282.53

2.612.76

3.033.12

3.253.44

3.70

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bill

ions

$

Retail Sales - St. John's CMA2002 - 2012

The average MLS®1 housing price more than doubled over the last 6 years (+104.7%), and increased 6.3% in 2012.

1 MLS® (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS® data.

141.2 139.5

157.0

178.5

218.9

251.2

268.6285.5

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

sand

s $

Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's 2005 - 2012

Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

St. John's CMA housing starts increased 167% since 1999 and increased 12.0% to 2,153 units in 2012.

Meanwhile, housing starts in the City of St. John’s increased 5.5% in 2012 to a record 1,001 starts.

807

935

1029

1350 1604

1834

1534

1275

1480

1863

1703

18161923

2153

579713

398

585751

932783

579

713

670

751

701

949

1001

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA1999 - 2012

CMA St. John's

Although vacancy rates have increased slightly the last few years, the rate remains low from a historical perspective.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

10.8

15.416.6

15.4

9.2

3.8

2.5

2.7

2.0

3.14.5

5.1

2.6 0.8 0.9 1.11.3

2.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Vacancy Rates - St. John's (%)1995 - 2012

The value of permits in the City of St. John's increased 12.1% to $432.4 million in 2012. The increase was lead by commercial permits, up 116% or $118.3 million to $220.1 million. Meanwhile, the value of Government permits declined 54.5% to $16.3 million and the value of residential permits declined 21.0% to $196.0 million.

Source: City of St. John's

Com = Commercial Permits, Res = Residential Permits; Gov = Government Permits

Office vacancy rates have declined substantially since 2005. Class A* vacancy is currently at 0%.

* Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre.

Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic

2.3

2.61.1

0.1 0.40.8

0.00.0

11.7

8.5

5.7

3.9

2.4

4.64.1

3.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%) 2005 - 2012

Class A Overall

Source: St. John's Port Authority

Total port cargo has increased 3.5% over the last ten years while vessel arrivals have increased by 29.7%.

Note: vessel arrivals exclude non-commercial, e.g., Department of National Defence and small commercial vessels entering the Port of St. John’s.

PAST YEAR St. John's 5.5%

PAST 3 YEARS St. John's 18.2%

PAST 10 YEARS St. John's 66.6%

Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada

Passenger traffic reaches record high at St. John's International Airport. The number of passenger movements increased 5.5% in 2012 to approximately 1.45 million.

802852

922

869950

10831175

1243

1185

1223

1224

13191371

1447

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

sand

s

Airline Passenger Movements atSt. John's International Airport 1999 - 2012 (000's)

Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

Tourism revenues in the St. John's CMA rise 65.5% over the past 10 years.

St. John's CMA hosted 386,713 out of province visitors in 2011, majority arrive by air.

Source: Provincial Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

Note: Occupancy rates reflect all rooms sold for all purposes including tourism, conventions, business etc. Source: Destination St. John’s and PKF Consulting Inc.

St. John's had the 3rd highest hotel occupancy rate (72.5%) in Canada in 2012. The St. John's rate increased 0.7 percentage points from 71.8% in 2011.

55.056.4

59.361.561.862.2

64.065.1

66.066.466.567.1

69.570.370.5

72.572.7

74.3

30 40 50 60 70 80

WhistlerAlberta Resorts

MonctonQuebec City

CanadaVictoriaHalifax

MontrealWinnipeg

TorontoEdmontonVancouver

OttawaThunder Bay

CalgarySt. John's

ReginaSaskatoon

Hotel Occupancy Rates (%)Major Canadian Destinations - 2012

Source: Destination St. John's.

Number of convention delegates remained stable in 2012 with 22,149 delegates.

15.5

20.0

25.1

19.022.2

16.0

17.5

22.9 22.7 22.1

0

10

20

30

40

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Thou

sand

s

# Convention Delegates - St. John's2003 - 2012

St. John's CMA has a higher percentage of its labour force in arts occupations (0.98%) than the Canadian average (0.77%). The St. John's labour force also has a higher percentage of cultural workers (3.9%) than Canada (3.3%).

Source: Analysis by Hill Strategies Research based on a 2006 census custom data request

Perceptions are changing.

"As a have-not, there was a lot of psychological baggage. Now, a positive change is starting to take place in the perception of ourselves as a distinct society. What was despair, not knowing what’ll happen because of the fishery closing, has turned to hope.” Curtis Andrews in Up! Magazine

“[St. John’s]….feverish activity in the oil and gas sector has helped lift St. John’s onto the “A” list of cities…St. John’s record-high productivity has recently outpaced that of Calgary and Edmonton.” City Magnets ll: Benchmarking the Attractiveness of 50 Canadian Cities Conference Board of Canada, January 2010

“…and St. John's Newfoundland where they have initiated world class educational programs to support their offshore energy development.” Jack B. Moore, CEO, Cameron

“St. John’s…has begun to rival Halifax as Atlantic Canada’s hipster nexus thanks to a network of artists, musicians and entrepreneurs.” Steven English, Arrival Magazine, 2009

www.stjohns.ca

st. john's metro · 2013. 4. 19. · st. john's is an economic driver. st. john's...

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