SSD: The Next Wave In NAND Flash

Jim ElliottDirector of Flash MarketingSamsung Semiconductor, Inc.

Agenda

NAND flash market overviewSSD technology overviewSSD value proposition

SSD versus HDD performance metrics

Tackling SSD perception barriersCostDensity

Concluding remarks

NAND – Scaling Faster Than Moore’s Law

256Mb220nm

1Gb120nm

2Gb90nm

4Gb70nm

512Mb150nm

8Gb60nm

16Gb50nm

64Gb3xnm

32Gb4xnm

Card for Digital Still Camera32MB ~ 2GB

USB Flash Drive64MB ~ 4GB

Digital Audio Player128MB ~ 8GB

Major Mark

et Driv

ing Applic

ation

PC Era256MB ~ 64GB

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

`91 `92 `93 `94 `95 `96 `97 `98 `99 `00 `01 `02 `03 `04 `05 `06 `07 `08

* Source: WSTS (`06.10)

MP3 Player

Cell Phone

USB Drives

Memory Card

SSD

Flash %

W/W Memory Revenue

Total ’07 Flash RevenueNAND = $14B

($B)

14%

31%

36%36%

12

1921 23

27

16

38% 37%39%

NAND Flash Growth Trends

NAND Application Trend

46%

30%

23%

15%

8%8%

13%

8%

27%

13%

9% Card

MP3 & PMP

USB Drive

Communication

Others

2006

(Source : SEC Marketing)

NAND Revenue Growth

Source: WSTS

M$

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

NAND Seasonality And Application Trends1H/2H imbalance due to over-dependence on CE (black friday)

2011

Q/Q

PC0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

NAND $ Growth

* Source: SEC Marketing

16Gb

8Gb

4Gb

81%

1Q2005

83%

2Q

58%

3Q

58%

28%

4Q 3Q 4Q 1Q2007

2Q 3Q 4Q1Q2006

66%

19%

2Q

76%

12%

23%

58%

9%

58%

29%

7%

60%

30%

4%

7%

62%

19%

4%

35%

46%

8%4%

5%3%

39%

47%

▶ Starting 16Gb Production in Q2 2007

Samsung NAND Density OutlookFocus on high density with rapid technology transition

Solid State Drive is a de-vice that uses memory compo-nents to store DIGITAL DATAConsists of NAND FLASH

Memory

• Extreme Ruggedness

• High Performance• High Reliability• Low Power Consumption

Key SSD Advantages…

Definition Of SSD

SSD Distinguishing FeaturesExtreme Ruggedness

Improved Performance

Substantial resistance against impact: > 1500G

No mechanical parts

Extended operation temperature range: -20°C to 85°C

The lightest storage solution available

Faster access time and sequential read/write speed

Virtually no latency: > 1msec

Sequential reads: Up to 64MB/sec (8Gb SLC)

Sequential writes: Up to 45MB/sec (8Gb SLC)

Low power consumption

Operation : 0.5W, Sleep: 0.06W, Idle: 0W (PATA)

Virtually no heat generation

No noise: No moving parts

2007 2008 2009 2010

160

550

850

850

200

100

$10/GB

$6/GB

$4/GB

$2/GB

2,200

Timing ofAdoption (>300K)

2010 Market Size ($M)

10.0

Corporate Server

Corporate Thin Desktop

Corporate High Perf. SAN

Retail Upgrade

Other Consumer Laptops100

UMPC80

Consumer Entertainment Users

Consumer Productivity Users

Corporate Laptop

2.8

12.6

8.3

1.90.8

3.61.8

35.6

Shipments by 2010(M units, 32GB EQ)

Corporate

Consumer

Source: Mckinsey

SSD Volume By 2010SSD Volume Drivers Through 2010:

Corporate laptops, 32GB+Corporate servers (including read cache)Retail upgrades (SSD + HDD SKU’s, gamers)

2006 20102007 2008 2009

PATA4/8/16/32GB

SATA-I8/16/32/48/64GB

SATA-II8/16/32/48/64GB

MLC(Multi Level Cell)

Combo(SLC+MLC)

SLC(Single Level

Cell)

SATA-II16/32/64/96/128GB

SATA-III56/112/224/336/448GB

SATA-II14/28/56/84/112GB

SATA-III32/64/128/192/256GB

SATA-II16/32/48/64/96/128GB

SATA-II32/48/64/128/256GB

SATA-II28/56/112/168/224GB

57/32 64/45 100/80 160/160

800/800

1300/1300R/W Speed:

SATA-III 48/64/128/256/512GB

Samsung SSD Long-Term Roadmap

Standard FF Special FF

1.8’’ 2.5’’ Slim Half Slim So DIMM

Density 4/8/16/32GB 4/8/16/32GB 8/16/32GB 4/8/16/32GB 8/16GB

Dimension

(H x W x T)

78.5x54x8.0

100.2x70x9.5

70.6x53.6x:3.0:

16/32GB2.5: 4~8GB

45.0x53.6x3.8

53.6x70.6x3.0

Connector 50pin 44pin ZIF 40pin ZIF 40pin 200pin

Weight 44g 46g 20g TBD TBD

Market Notebook Sub-Note / Tablet UMPC Custom Custom

Availability Now Now Now ES Jun’07 CS

Aug‘07 Now

Samsung SSD Form Factors

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 10 20 300 20 40 60 80 100

SSD Versus HDD Performance

0 50 100 150

Performance in IOMeter, Chunk size: 128KB Performance in IOMeter, Chunk size: 128KB

[ MB/s ][ MB/s ]

HDD 5400rpmHDD 5400rpm

HDD 10000rpmHDD 10000rpm

SSD SATA2(SLC)SSD SATA2(SLC)

SSD SATA2(MLC)SSD SATA2(MLC)

Random Read

Sequential Read

Random Write

Sequential Write

73MB/s73MB/s

92MB/s92MB/s

12MB/s12MB/s

8MB/s8MB/s

64MB/s64MB/s

1MB/s1MB/s

27MB/s27MB/s

19MB/s19MB/s

12MB/s12MB/s

3MB/s3MB/s

38MB/s38MB/s

83MB/s83MB/s

64MB/s64MB/s

100MB/s100MB/s

82MB/s82MB/s 30MB/s30MB/s

80MB/s80MB/s

45MB/s45MB/s

83MB/s83MB/s

38MB/s38MB/s

Sequential read/write: SATA1 SSD already comparable to 10K RPM HDD

SATA1 SSD outperforms 5400 NB HDD (business NB)

Random read: SSD far superior to all HDD (read cache for web-servers)

HDD 5400rpmHDD 5400rpm

HDD 10000rpmHDD 10000rpm

SSD SATA1SSD SATA1

SSD SATA2(SLC)SSD SATA2(SLC)

SSD SATA2(MLC)SSD SATA2(MLC)

HDD 5400rpmHDD 5400rpm

HDD 10000rpmHDD 10000rpm

SSD SATA2(SLC)SSD SATA2(SLC)

SSD SATA2(MLC)SSD SATA2(MLC)

HDD 5400rpmHDD 5400rpm

HDD 10000rpmHDD 10000rpm

SSD SATA1SSD SATA1

SSD SATA2(SLC)SSD SATA2(SLC)

SSD SATA2(MLC)SSD SATA2(MLC)

SSD SATA1SSD SATA1 SSD SATA1SSD SATA1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4200 5400 7200 10000 15000 SSDPATA

SSDSATA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

4200 5400 7200 10000 15000 SSDPATA

SSDSATA

RPM Drive

4200 Hitachi GST Travelstar 4k120

5400 Toshiba MK1032GSX

7200 Hitachi GST Travelstar 7k100

10000 Seagate Savvio 10K.115000 Seagate Cheetah 15K.4

* HDD DATA background

HDD: Higher RPM = higher powerSSD: Less power saves lifetime energy costs…

SSD Power Savings ComparisonWatts used in operation

modeWatts used in idle Mode

HDD RPM HDD RPM

4.1x

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270

(min)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

(sec)

Powerpoint(17MB,

135 slides)

Outlook(650 mails)

Searching filesincluding “a”

in C Drive

Windows XPBoot

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90(sec)

0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270

(min)

Battery Life

Samsung Sens Q1 Sony UMPC UX

1.8” HDDSSD 1.5x

2.3x

2.9x

1.9x

3.5x

6.0x

3.8x

1.3x 1.2x

(Source: Nikkei Electronics 2006.7)

1.8” HDDSSD

1.8” HDDSSD

1.8” HDDSSD

SSD- User BenefitsSSD optimizes mobile user experienceFast Booting/Resume/Application launching

Longer battery life with SSD

SSD: Faster, Lighter, More Mobility… Item 1.8” SSD 1.8” HDD Customer Benefits

Speed(Vista Launch)

1’54” 2’17”

Weight 859 grams 898 grams

Mobility 12 Hours 11.5 Hours

No seek time and latency re-

duces application launch time

(23 seconds)

Notebook with SSD weighs

39 grams less than HDD

Battery life is 30 Minutes

longer due to no moving

parts

* Test System: Sony VAIO type G* source: http://www.jp.sonystyle.com/Business/Vaio/Product/G_vista/closeup.html#c1

SSD Is Ready For VistaWindow Experience Index*

Standard Performance Diagnostic for Vista OS1.8” SSD Clearly outperformed HDD.

HDD needs higher RPM + Bigger Form Factor to Compete (3.5” 7200rpm HDD)

System: Sony VAIO type G

CPU: Core Solo U1400(1.2 GHz),

OS: Windows Vista Business

SSD: 32GB, HDD: 60GB

Test Environment

3.4

5.2

1 6.0

Primary hard disk score

1.8” SSD

1.8” HDD

All task tray ready

1.8“ HDD

1.8“ SSD

Window front page show up50sec

1min 40sec

1min 30sec

3 min

(Source: Itmedia.co.jp)

Boot Time Comparison50% Improvement on Windows Front Page Appearance50% Improvement on All Task Ready Tray

Counter-Acting SSD FUD FactorsMyth #1:

“SSD Density Points are too Low”

Myth #2:“SSD Costs to Much”

HDD Capacity GrowthHDD MB per platter

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Source: IBM, Intel, Samsung

2.5”

3.5”100GB

Increased 35M Times Over 35 years…

Diminishing Marginal Returns?

Who Wants to De-Frag 1TB?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unique User DataOffice + ProductivityOS + Swap

How Much Storage Is Needed?Percent of HDD capacity usedWhy the need for

so much capacity?

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Unique User DataOffice + ProductivityOS + Swap

How Much Storage Is Needed?Percent of HDD capacity usedWhy the need for

so much capacity?

Photos MusicVideo

Work Notebook Challenge…

Jim Elliott’s Work Notebook17.5GB Used Total

Windows XP + Office6 Years at Samsung

Extensive Presentations

32-64GB SSD is Sufficient for

Business NotebooksCTO’s Prefer

Centralized Data StorageNo Personal Files: Video, Music,

Photos, etc.

Source: Jim Elliott - May ‘07

Introducing TCO Concept

Hybrid automobiles…Acquisition cost is higher

Total cost of ownership value:Less gas at $4.00 per gallonCarpool lane time = money…

Business Notebook TCO Analysis

(1) Based on 2009 SSD pricingSource: McKinsey Analysis

180-200

$60HDD FailureReduction

Lifetime productivityimprovement

Total Value Benefit

Laptop lifetime TCO benefit from SSD

Assumptions (3 year lifetime)

50x reduction in the incidence of HDD failure rate

20% Improvement in device lifetime productivity due to reliability and performance consistency characteristics (Source: IDC)

~15 Minutes: average time per day spent waiting for your NB PC to execute commands

Source:: IDC, Gartner, McKinsey Analysis3 Year Product Use Basis

$200

$260

Typical corporate notebook scenario:100’s of NB’s deployed for mobile workforceEfficiency/productivity gains via SSDImagine ~5% HDD failure rate over 3 yearsCosts: Downtime, MIS, data recovery, etc…

(Source SEC)

Notebook TCO AnalysisNotebook HDD TCO 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years Comment

SSD Acquisition Price 320$ 320$ 320$ 320$ 320$ Assume $10 per GBHDD Acquisition Price 60$ 60$ 60$ 60$ 60$ Assume 60GB 1.8" HDD at $110Increased Reliability 20$ 40$ 60$ 80$ 100$ ~50x Fewer Failures, 2M Hrs MTBFProductivity / Efficiency 67$ 133$ 200$ 267$ 333$ Better Performance, Less DowntimeTotal HDD TCO 87$ 173$ 320$ 347$ 433$

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

Productivity / Efficiency

Increased Reliability

HDD Acquisition Price

SSD Acquisition Price 3 year breakeven at today’s price

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120NB SSD Cross-Over Points

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

2.5” HDD Cost

HDD Fixed Cost

HDD Typical Cost

HDD Margin+ Density “Up-Sell”

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

NAND GB

0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.44.8 6.0

10.3

18.2

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

HDD Fixed Cost

HDD Typical Cost

HDD Margin+ Density “Up-Sell”

2.5” HDD Cost

$60

6GB

80

60

40

20

100

120

0

NAND GB Cross-Over (-50% $/GB / Year)

NB SSD Cross-Over Points

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

NAND GB

0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.44.8 6.0

10.3

18.2

32.0

58.2

105.8

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

HDD Fixed Cost

HDD Typical Cost

HDD Margin+ Density “Up-Sell”

2.5” HDD Cost

$60

6GB

32GB

80

60

40

20

100

120

0

NAND GB Cross-Over (-50% $/GB / Year)

NB SSD Cross-Over Points

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

NAND GB

0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.44.8 6.0

10.3

18.2

32.0

58.2

105.8

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

HDD Fixed Cost

HDD Typical Cost

HDD Margin+ Density “Up-Sell”

2007: 32GB SSD Rivals 40~60GB

HDD

2008: 64GB SSD Rivals 60GB~80GB

HDD

2009: 128GB SSD Rivals <150GB

HDD

Biz NB

Biz + Some Consumer NB

NB + DT

2.5” HDD Cost

NAND GB Cross-Over (-50% $/GB / Year)

$60

6GB

32GB

80

60

40

20

100

120

0

NB SSD Cross-Over Points

SSD TAM Outlook~50M notebooks in 2007

68

14

79

16

98

20

110

27

102

28

104

31

112

39

125

49

136

65

142

81

152

97

8295

118136 130 135

151174

201

249

223

`97 `98 `99 `00 `01 `02 `03 `04 `05 `06 `07

(M units)

D/T

N/B

Total PC Sales Forecast

* Source : IDC(`06.08)

Consumer Space: Rich media content (video, etc.,) HDD survives – for now…SSD breaks in with 128GB+Business Notebook: (50% of total NB) Little to no media files SSD takes over2% attachment rate = 1M units in ‘07

SSD Forecast: >100% CAGR

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

Consumer

Enterprise

SSD TAM: ~$5B by 2010Estimates range from $4~7B

SSD to represent ~25% of total NAND TAM by 2010

$B

Concluding ThoughtsHigh storage demand: NAND flash will cache HDD

System performance improvements

Less power consumption (battery life and energy savings)

Market segmentsMid ~ High consumer desktop and notebook

Server – read cache

Moderate storage demand: NAND conversion is inevitable

Overall system performance improvements

Smaller form factor

TCO benefits

Market segmentsBusiness notebooks in ‘07

Consumer applications as density increases

Final thought:

“Better to design up the technology curve than down the cost curve…”