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Joint Assessment of Drought Impact

on Food Security and Livelihoods

15 March 2017

SRI LANKA

Implemented By: Ministry of Disaster Management, National Disaster Relief Services Centre, Disaster Management Centre and Hector

Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research & Training Institute

Assessment Technical Lead: United Nations World Food Programme

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BACKGROUND

Compared with the past 30 years, rainfall during the North–Eastern monsoon season in 2016 was highly erratic and far

below average in many parts of the country. More than half of the year’s total precipitation fell in May 2016, while little

rain arrived during the October-November inter-monsoon period. The consequential prolonged dry spell over the

entire country meant that one-third of the normal paddy farms were not cultivated during the main “Maha” agricultural

season (from Sept-March). Moreover, out of the total area cultivated, over 137,017 ha were destroyed due to a lack of

water for irrigation and there was further yield loss due water stress.

In December 2016, the Ministry of Disaster Management, with technical support from the World Food Programme,

conducted an analysis of secondary data on the impacts of the drought. The recommendations of the review were

submitted to the Drought Response Task Force and the Cabinet of Ministers of the Government of Sri Lanka, with the

recommendations endorsed by the Cabinet for rapid implementation by relevant line Ministries and agencies.

Following this initial review, the Inter-Ministerial Committee for Drought Response recommended to monitor the

drought’s impact on household food security and livelihoods. As such, a joint field verification exercise was conducted

by the Ministry of Disaster Management jointly with the National Disaster Relief Services Centre (NDRSC), Disaster

Management Centre (DMC) and Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research & Training Institute (HARTI), with technical

support of the United Nations World Food Programme in February 2017. UNICEF, FAO and Save the Children

partnered in the survey. The main objectives were to assess the household-level impact of the drought on the most

vulnerable areas in the ten most affected districts. The exercise also estimated the immediate needs for food security,

agriculture (inputs & seeds) and water to inform the design of potential short- medium- and long-term response

options.

The 2016/17 drought is the one of the major hits in Sri

Lanka in the past five years, causing around 227,000

households to become food insecure so far in the affected

areas. Community interviews also suggest that the

households have not experienced this level of drought for 40 years

(since 1974). Food insecurity is widespread and increasing in

drought affected regions, with some areas having reached severely

deteriorated levels of food consumption and over 16 percent of

households becoming food insecure or borderline food insecure.

Food insecurity is also reported as significantly higher among female-

headed households. Food insecure and borderline households are

also resorting to negative coping strategies such as selling livelihood

assets, taking children out of school or reducing expenditures on

health and hygiene. With the Maha harvest only concluding in

February/March, the food security status of these groups will continue to deteriorate throughout the year and until the

next harvest in March 2018. Regular monitoring of nutrition is underway and will help inform the impact and needed

responses to the drought.

Around 60 percent of the affected households lost more than one third of their expected income

during 2016/17 Maha season and all affected farming households need immediate support to compensate for

crop loss to cultivate in the 2017 Yala agricultural season due to start in May.

Farming and Agricultural labours were identified as the most affected livelihood groups in surveyed districts which represents 70% of the affected livelihood groups. Every fifth farmer and every fourth agricultural casual laborer

has been identified as food insecure.

Access to drinking water and water quality is a major concern with one-quarter of affected households

seriously concerned about the quality of their current drinking water source.

Seeds are still a major constraint to plant the Yala 2017. Every fifth farmer affected by drought said they had no source of paddy seed. Only 10 percent of farmers have produced their own paddy seeds for the next

season compared to more than 80 percent who usually produce seeds in the Maha season for use in the Yala.

Identification of possible seed suppliers and demarcation of current successful paddy harvests for seeds is needed.

Half of the affected population requested cash or food assistance to meet immediate needs. (27% cash and 27% food).

KEY FINDINGS NUMBER OF FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS BY

DISASTER (2012-2017)

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1. Food Security

Deteriorated food consumption: Results of the assessment show that the food consumption score

(FCS) has severely deteriorated among the affected population and 16 percent of households surveyed have

either poor or borderline scores. These rates are three times higher than during normal periods in Sri

Lanka and are significantly higher than the 2012 and 2014 droughts. The worst food consumption levels were

found among casual agricultural labourers and farming communities which represent more than 75 percent of the

affected community. Out of the 10 districts assessed, four districts showed very poor food consumption levels (Mannar,

Vavuniya, Kurunegala and Moneragala).

This poor food consumption is three times higher among

female headed households compared to those headed by

males. The gender aspects of the affected population, already a

major area of concern in Sri Lanka, should be carefully considered

when planning the targeting for assistance.

Loss of income and lack of income

generation opportunities: Approximately one third of

the affected population have experienced more than a 50%

reduction of their regular incomes. Therefore, the

affordability of a minimum cost of a nutritious diet has dramatically

decreased. Over 60% of the income drop is reported as a result of

total crop failure, severe yield losses and loss of livelihood.

Indebtedness was also found to be very high. Currently over 60

percent of the households were reported to have

outstanding short-term loans. This amount is very high compared to the reported household income levels (36

percent of households earn less than 100 USD/month and 42 percent households earn less than 166 USD/month). An

estimated of span of at least two years or two successful major agricultural seasons will be required to pay back the

loans.

Exhausted food security coping capacity: Over half of the affected population is currently

using negative coping practices to address food needs. Households are taking measures such as eating less

preferred foods, limiting portion sizes, and reducing the number of meals consumed per day. Coping capacity is

expected to worsen as the year progresses and wile prospects of the Yala harvest remain poor, and use of seriously

negative coping behaviours such as taking children out of school and selling of livelihood assets could increase as limits

of the initial coping practices are reached.

Increased staple food prices: The retail price

of par-boiled long-grain rice has increased by 18 percent

since May 2016, and is currently USD 0.67/kilogram. The

terms of trade are also a concern, with the daily-wage

labour vs staple food prices further declining as a result of

the poor labour market opportunities and the increased

retail price of rice. While the outlook is unfavourable for

agricultural labourers, a reduction of taxes and relaxing of

import quotas for rice are supporting availability and helping

FOOD CONSUMPTION AMONGST AFFECTED

LIVELIHOOD GROUPS

1%

3%

16%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

male headed

female headed

Proportion of Households

Poor Borderline

FOOD INSECURITY BY HOUSEHOLD GENDER

Further reading:

Initial Rapid Drought Assessment, 2016 (https://www.wfp.org/Sri_Lanka_Drought_Assessment).

Food security review of Sri Lanka, 2017 (http://www.wfp.org/Sri_Lanka_Food_Security_Review).

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Overall, the quality of water was acceptable across the country, however 25 percent of the respondents were not

satisfied with the quality of their water, with some areas citing serious concern: 31 percent from Mannar, 34 percent

from Vavuniya and 46 percent from Kurunegala,

On the adequacy of drinking water, 41 percent of respondents claimed their water supply to be sufficient to cover their

drinking water needs, while 43 percent reported ‘some water shortages’ and another 15 per cent cited severe

shortages. Severe shortages were reported from Batticaloa (19 percent), Mannar (30 percent) and

Ampara (41 percent).

Respondents were required to state whether they accessed water from their regular source, or from an

alternative source, or both 65 per cent claimed to access water from their regular source, while 22 percent accessed

water from a non-regular source. On a district basis, 22 percent from Batticaloa were accessing water from an

alternative source, followed by 29 percent from Ampara, Moneragala (26 percent), 37 percent from

Puttalam and Kurunegala (49 percent).

Regarding water collection for household needs, in 54 percent of the cases it

was the mother and in 22 percent of the households it was the father. In 4

per cent of the cases, the children were sent to fetch water. On a district

basis, collection of water for the needs of the household were

concentrated on the mother. This was observed extremely high in

the case of Vavuniya (65 percent), Ampara (73 percent), Mannar

(80 percent), Moneragala (84 percent) and Hambantota (88

percent). Combined with the fact that many of them are the districts that

already reported severe water shortages and had to shift to alternative

sources of water, this raises a concern on potential threat to the child’s

safety and security in mother’s absence.

On the sufficiency of water for latrine needs, 95 percent claimed water

was sufficient to clean and flush toilets before the drought conditions.

However, this dropped to 60 percent during the current drought.

Similarly, on water availability for bathing and washing, 95 per cent of

respondents reported to have had sufficient water before the drought but

now, only 52 percent said they had sufficient water for these needs.

II. Water and Sanitation

SUFFICIENCY OF WATER FOR BATHING

AND WASHING

To capture the effect of the intensity of the

drought on children, respondents were queried

on whether drought conditions forced them to

take out their children out of school. This

was not the case in the majority of the cases (96

percent). A similar scenario was observed across

districts. Households were also asked whether

drought conditions were forcing them to reduce

child expenditure on education. This was not

reported by the majority of respondents (85 per-

cent). However, 44 per cent of respondents

from Mannar and another 39 percent from

Vavuniya reported incidences whereby

drought prompted them to cut these ex-

penditures.

III. Child Welfare

REDUCED EXPENDITURE ON CHILD’S EDUCATION DUE TO DROUGHT

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IV. Agriculture and Outlook for Yala 2017

Sri Lanka needs 2.3 million MT of rice for its annual consumption. The current most likely projections indicate

production of only 1.44 million MT. The field assessment findings confirmed that there is a significant drop in the Maha

2016/17 cultivation and the country’s main harvest is estimated to be approximately 50 percent below average. At this

rate the Maha 2016/17 harvest is sufficient to provide less than four and a half months of the national

demand of rice (Department of Agriculture, February 2017) compared to the normal 8-9 months of

demand.

Limited carry–over capacity of water in the major irrigation reservoirs as well as the limited availability

of seed stocks will be major factors affecting the coming Yala planting season. Despite periodic rains, the current

water levels of the natural reservoirs is reported to be low (39 percent on average) while levels of more

than 50 percent are required for planting in the Yala season. This low water level will greatly hinder the enrolment rate

for the Yala 2017. The availability of seeds is also a significant uncertainty for affected households, with only 10% of

farmers having produced their own paddy seeds to plant the coming season. One third of the farmers are planning to

purchase from private vendors while 40 percent of farmers said they will rely on government intervention. Moreover,

highly indebted farming communities will continue to struggle to find enough capital to invest in the 2017 Yala

cultivation. Labor opportunities will

again be negatively affected, putting

further hardship on this population

group.

If the all climate conditions are

favorable in the coming Yala sesason

(Yala 2017,) the total forecasted

rice production is around 1.93 Mn

MT.

If the Yala 2017 is not successful

due lower carrying capacity, the

estimated annual rice production

will reach only 1.44 Mn MT.

RICE PRODUCTION FORECAST– 2017

** Best case scenario ** Scenario with a failure of Yala 2017

For more information, please contact:

Ministry of Disaster Management

Telephone: : +94-112-665170 Vidya Mawatha, Colombo 07. E-mail:

United Nations World Food Programme

Telephone: +94 11 2586244 2, Jawatte Avenue, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka.

On child’s welfare, households were inquired whether the drought

condition has had an impact on the child’s normal activities. Seventy

one percent claimed that drought has not impacted their child’s rou-

tine activities, while 27 percent stated otherwise.

On a district level basis, 29 percent from Ampara, 40 percent

from Anuradhapura, 43 per cent from Pollonnaruwa and 50

percent from Mannar, stated that their child’s activities had

been disturbed by drought conditions during the time of the sur-

vey.

IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON CHILD'S ROUTINE

ACTIVITIES

SRI LANKA food security and livelihoods affected by erratic weather

Detailed Findings

Annex I



Rainfall anomaly, as a percentage of the long-term average, Aug-Dec 2016

August September October November December

August September October November December

Meteorological drought conditions

Vegetation Health Index, Aug– Dec 2016



Methodology

Coverage 10 Districts( Ampara, Batticaloa, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Mannar, Vavuniya, Kurunegala, Puttlam, Moneragala, Hambanthota) Five livelihood zones 48 DS Divisions 80 Locations(GN Divisions) 1,524 household interviews Over 50 focus group discussions

Sampling Considered only the affected areas PPS technique for sample creation by using the population data and reported under drought / dry weather impacts


Food insecurity has been deteriorated among many communities and increasing in drought affected regions. Some regions reached alarming levels of poor/borderline food consumption.

> 50% of the affected households have lost more than one third of their expected income during Maha 2016/17 season

Farming households needs immediate compensation for crop losses to plan Yala 2017

Seeds are still a major constraint to plan Yala 2017

Access to drinking water and quality is still a major concern

Half of the affected population request for cash and food assistance to meet immediate needs.

Key Findings


FOOD SECURITY &

LIVELIHOOD

Captured by : Laksiri Nanayakkara/WFP


Livelihood profile of the

affected people

53%

22%

10%

7%

4% 3%

Crop based Casual labour

Formal employment Other

Petty trading/business Fishing

Livestock/poultry Estate worker


Food consumption based

coping strategies

49% 40%

29% 23%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Consume less preferred food

Borrow food/money from friends & relativs

Limit the portion size

Limit the numbe of meals


Livelihood coping strategies

75% 74%

60%

40%

65%

50%

67%

29%

48% 40%

55% 66%

56%

43% 41% 41% 35% 31%

24%

10% 3%

35%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Pawned jewellery reduce exp. on essential items_health

6% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Sold HH assets

Sold agricultural assets

take children out of school to work

reduce expenditure on children's education


Food consumption -2017

1.3%

3.3%

3.9%

0.5%

0.4%

0.5%

0.7%

2.6%

0.6%

15.9%

30.0%

25.0%

17.7%

17.2%

14.3%

14.1%

13.0%

10.6%

9.4%

4.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Average

Mannar

Vavuniya

Moneragala

Kurunegala

Puttlam

Batticaloa

Hambanthota

Anuradhapura

Ampara

Polonnaruwa


Poor Borderline Acceptable


Food consumption by

livelihood

2% 1% 1% 1%

22%

18%

9% 8% 8% 7% 4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Poor Borderline


Food consumption by

income groups

2%

1%

21%

14%

14%

9%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

<15,000

15,000-25,000

25,000-50,000

50,000-75,000


Poor Borderline

Statistically significant difference between the bottom-line and topline income groups


Food consumption further

deteriorated – Poor and

borderline

0.6%

13%

14.0%

17.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

Baseline (PW Survey -2016)

2012 Drought

2014 Drought

2017 Drought



Change in food insecurity

population

NUMBER OF FOOD INSECURE HOUSEHOLDS BY Disaster

(2012-2017)


DRIVERS OF FOOD

INSECURITY

Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/ WFP


Reduced levels of household

income

60%

42% 38%

35%

27%

17% 12% 12%

9% 7%

28%

26%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Very high impact(50%) High impact(30-50%)

Some impact(20-30%) No impact


Nature of the damage

93% 88%

82%

72%

64%

56% 56% 55% 50%

36%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Crop damage/failures Loss of livelhood

Death or disease in livestock No major impact



Indebtedness

69% 69% 67% 64% 64% 64%

59% 57% 54%

47%

61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

HH reported as having loans exceeds over

60% of the total population surveyed.


Market prices – retail price

of rice (long-grain)

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

LKR

/ 1

kg

Source: HARTI, 2017


AGRICULTURE

Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/WFP


Average extent of cultivation of

subsistence farming households

0.98 1.01

2.72

2.19

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Acr

es

OFC_2015_16 OFC_2016/17

Paddy_2015/16 Paddy_2016/17


77%

49%

21% 19%

8% 8% 4% 3% 3%

20%

13%

8%

21%

7%

7% 8% 10% 12% 12%

7%

11%

4%

36%

33%

40%

7%

32%

53%

69% 60% 79%

42%

7% 7%

26% 35%

77%

53%

32%

17% 25%

14%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Currently there is no source Produced in 2016/17

Department of Agriculture Private vendors

Availability of seeds for Yala

2017


SANITATION


Access to water for

domestic needs

2%

3%

38%

46%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Not sufficient water for latrineuse

Not sufficient bathing andwashing


During drought During normal conditions

Water for livestock is not a major concern yet


DRINKING WATER

Captured by : Indu Abeyratne/WFP


Sufficiency of water for bathing and washing 95%

52%

3%

45%

0%

Before drought During drought

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Yes No


Access to drinking water

41% 30% 30% 19% 10% 10% 10% 3% 2% 2% 15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Sufficient Some shortage Extreme shortage


Current water source

49% 26%

38% 12% 9%

29% 22% 8%

11% 2%

22%

9% 25%

10% 25% 23%

1% 15%

7% 10% 13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

Regular Alternative Both


Proportion of households who

do not accept quality of

current drinking water

46% 45% 34% 34% 32%

18% 14% 11% 7% 5%

25%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f H

ou

seh

old

s


CHILD WELFARE

Photo Credit : Indu Abeyratne/WFP


Impact on children’s

normal life routine pattern

44.17

38.89

15.13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mannar Vavuniya Average

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Yes


Impact on children’s

normal life routine

27% respondent households have mentioned that their children have an impact. ***** 53% of the reported households(out of 27% total pop) having an impact health condition

1%

6%

18%

21%

53%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Children's protection issues

Safe and adequate drinking water

Education and schooling

Food & Nutrition

Health conditions

Proportion of households with impacts on children


Reduced expenditure on child’s education due to drought

50%

40% 43%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f h

ou

seh

old

s

Yes


Demographics

Average Household size : 4

Average number of people in the HH who contribute to household income: 1.39

Respondents - 43% Males, 57% Females

13% of the surveyed households are female headed.


ASSISTANCE


Assistance requests

1%

7%

8%

9%

11%

17%

20%

27%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Animal feed

Fertilizer and pesticides

Rehabilitation of irrigation

Work opportunities

Crop seeds

Water

Food

Cash


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