sr-1140+iftf+tyf+2008+perspectives_sm

8/14/2019 SR-1140+IFTF+TYF+2008+Perspectives_sm

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demographics new diasporas

In a time ofrapid migration,

diasporas aremaps of the

ows of wealth,goods, and

meaning.Over the next decade,

new kinds of migration

across physical and

digital borders alike

will create new kinds

of diasporas. These

dispersed populations

with shared roots will

perhaps be the real

emerging economies ofthe 21st century. And

at the core of these

new economies will be

a commodity that will

be measured, managed,

and traded as vigorously

as any raw material, any

manufactured good oressential service. That

commodity is identity,

and platforms for identi-

ty creation and manage-

ment will be the engines

Beyond geography:a Virtual uprootedness

Following in the footsteps of anthro-pologist Arjun Appadurai, we already

know to look at emerging diasporas notso much in terms of their geo-culturalorigins but in terms of their various over-lapping scapes of experience: medi-ascapes, technoscapes, and workscapesfor example. These scapes give rise tothe multi-layered identities that denetodays diasporasand make it impos-sible to talk simply about the Indian

diaspora or the North African diaspora,for example.

At the same time, we see that eventhese scapes are built on the shiftingsands of virtual platforms, from the mas-sively multiplayer games that Chineseyouth may inhabit as they travel to workhundreds of miles from home to theonline self-help groups that providecitizenship services to diverse ethnicmigrant workers from Latin America.As these platforms evolve, diasporasmigrate across them. So todays diaspo-ras are as likely to be uprooted fromtheir virtual home spaces as from theirgeographical landscapes.

Beyond numBers:local minorities,

gloBal majorities

In addition, new media have givendiasporas a global voice that is perhapsout of proportion to their local numbers

to states in negotiating rightswhetherlocal or global, economic or geographic.They may even dene themselves asoutside these traditional legal systems.

Such distortions of size and inuenceare likely to grow in the future as diaspo-ras emerge from new global phenomena.For example, global climate changewill create a host of new diasporas:disasters like hurricane Katrina or morepermanent ooding (as forecast forBangladesh) will spur forced migrations

of local populations who see themselvesas victims of global, not local disasters.Local food shortages will be seen as acollapse of a global food web, turning lo-cal famine-driven migrations into globalpolitical phenomena.

Beyond citizenship:identity as commodity

These new diasporas are, in effect, thenew political economies of 21st century.But unlike citizens of nation-states, thenew diasporas wont share a stablegeo-cultural identity. Rather they willcraft their identities, day to day, froma combination of shifting physical andvirtual environments. This instability will

be the source of both wealth creationand social disruption.

Identity will become a commodity thatcan be constructed and deconstructed,and moved from one context to an-other as needed. Identity creation and


2/20

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corporate

diasporasCorporations serve

as destinations amongwhich groups of initiated

workers circulate

Virtual

diasporasPersistent online

identities migrate fromplatform to platform,

leveraging personal historiesand relationships

actiVist

diasporasTechnological support

for bottom-up, transbordercivil engagement creates

new platforms foridentity and community

especially in the

developing world

media

diasporasMedia taste trails

become identity markersthat dene persistent

communities

climate

change

diasporasClimate change displaces

communities and

creates identities linkedto the causes and impactsof global warming

internal

diasporasRural to urban migrationsin large Asian countries

redene geographicand social identities

Biometric

diasporasThe ability to track,

imagine, and expressbiological markers catalyze

new identitiesand communities

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Proiferating businessnetwork platforms

Open ID platforms

Pan-ethnic migrantsuport services

Virtual world workers

Persistent avatars

Hurricane Katrina diaspora

Bangladesh diaspora

Tuvalu Pact

North-to-South migrations

Refugee tracking

Global rights for local refugees

Solastalgia

DNA customs & ight check-in

Medical ID implants

DNA-based ancestry tracking

Health care map mashups

DNA asylum

NGO networks

Remote campaigns

Taste trails

Social taste networks

demographics superhero organizations

Source: New York Times, 2005

solastalgia: distress caused by transformation of ones home geography


3/20

economics isLAmic inFLUence

In a worldof capital

instability,Islamic fnanceis emerging

as a key zoneof global

innovation.At the heart of this

innovation is the reform

of Islamic

nance. In a world

coping with the after-

effects of risky banking

practices and develop-

ment strategies that,

in many cases, have

burdened nations with

inescapable debt,

Islamic nance offers

alternatives for manag-

ing risk and debt. In

this world, new Islamic

nancial products areproviding a way for Mus-

lims to engage with the

global nancial sector

they are also emerging

as both an alternative

d l f it li d

isLAmic FinAnce:

DiFFUsion oF innoVATion

Aspects of Islamic law limit the ability ofdevout Muslims to engage with con-

ventional banks and banking practices.Prohibitions on interest restrict their useof everything from mortgages to creditcards, while broader restraints limit theamount of debt they can assume.

As oil money has ooded the Islamicworld and as globally mobile Muslimshave sought to establish lives in non-

Muslim countries, Islamic legal scholarshave begun working with nancial expertsand banks to develop new instrumentsthat are shariah-compliantthat is, thatconform to the strictures of Islamic law.

At the same time, Western banks areopening so-called Islamic banking win-dows that recognize the requirementsof Islamic law. These windows are a wayto service the growing Islamic diasporarecipients of growing oil wealthas wellas enter predominantly Muslim markets.The combination of innovation within theIslamic banking sector and the assertionof Islamic identities in both the West andthe broader Islamic world is leading to the

growth of new urban hot spots of Islamicnance, from London to Kuala Lumpur.

isLAmic PRoHiBiTions:

BUFFeR AGAinsT RisK?

The world of banking has been destabi-lized by several decades of increasingly

instruments as an alternative way tomanage risk.

In reality, many of the innovations inIslamic nance may simply be shellgames, as some people have called theefforts to repackage existing productsto make them look as though theyconform. The near-term performanceof the Islamic stock exchange and sukukbonds will be measures of the capacityof Islamic nance to provide alternativesthat are truly less risky.

BeYonD BAnKinG:

A neW eTHics oF DeVeLoPmenT

The inuence of Islamic nance may wellspread beyond the worlds of bankingand insurance:

The role of Islamic businesswomenmay grow as more of these women

take higher positions in new businessdomains and as Islamic scholars chal-lenge the dominant norms, interpretedfrom the Quran, the Hadith, and Islamichistory, regarding the role of women ingeneraland specically in nance.

A broader strategy of addressingissues of nancial ethics may emergeas diverse groupsboth secular andreligiousgrapple with what might bedescribed as a new moral order.

Experimentation with alternativemodels of economic development may

id f th h t i f


4/20

economics isLAmic inFLUence

Growthofislam

cDiaspora

Assertionofislamiciden

tity

islamic

oil

Money

Growthof

emerging

Market

sislam

icoilMo

ney

ri

sky

inn

ovat

ion

in

Banking

search

foAlternatveCapitalist

economics

Poly

arc

hy

islamic

ref

orm

searchforAlternativeMoralorder

Islamic scholars challengegender norms

International certication programs inIslamic nance

Leading UK programs:- Institute for Islamic Banking and Finance- International Institute of Islamic Banking

and Finance

New U.S. programs in Islamic nance:- Harvard, Tufts

sukuk: Islam-compliant bondstakaful: Islam-compliant insurance

Islamic nancial productsdiffuse worldwideamong

Muslims and non-Muslims

Kuala Lumpur

Mumbai

London

New York

Singapore

Dubai

Riyadh

Istanbul

Islamic nance provides

an alternative ethicalframework for economicdevelopment

Islamic prohibition of riskand debt drive innovationin low-risk practices and

products

Swiss Re & Munich Re:Takafuland micro-takaful

Shariah -compliantinvestment funds

Islamic banking confederations

Islamic micro-credit

Zero-interest banking

Islamic infrastructureinvestment in developingcountries

New kinds ofcredit cards

Convertible Sukuk

Shariah compliant

mortgages

Differing interpretations ofIslamic law drive innovation

in nancial poducts

neW LeGAL

AnD ReLiGioUs

DeBATes

The lack of Islamicnancial experts drives

Islamic nance educationworldwide

DemAnD

FoR isLAmic

FinAnciAL

KnoW-HoW

Islamic banks denenew nancial centers

worldwide

neW BAnKinG

meTRoPoLises

neW

FinAnciAL

PRoDUcTs

neW

DeVeLoPmenT

eTHics

neW WAYs To

mAnAGe RisK

India: highest percent of Sharia-compliant stocks & companies

Malaysia: 70% of sukuk issued globaly

new Diasporas:

Activist

Diasporas


5/20

POLITICS OPEN-SOURCE WARFARE

Over thenext decade,

new modelarmies will usenetwork-based

strategies todisrupt social,

economic,and politicalsystems andwage meme

warfare.The responses are

likely to fall intotwo camps: Many

systems and states

will experience

autoimmune responses,

in which repeated

efforts at restoration

cripple the systems

they seek to protect.More successful,

platforms for resilience

will focus on system

innovations that enable

exibility and a capacity

FOURTH-GENERATION WAR:

OPEN INNOVATION AND

SUPER-EMPOWERMENT

The past decades have seen the rise of

what analysts now recognize as Fourth-Generation warfare (following line-and-column state warfare, repower/attritionwarfare, and maneuver warfare). Fourth-Generation warfare (4GW) builds onthe increasing strength of collaborativenetworks, the globalization of culture,and the widespread availability of digitaltechnologies. The result is heavily net-

worked, decentralized, highly adaptivemilitary actors, often without loyalty to aparticular state and particularly trouble-some to traditional state militaries.Think guerilla warfare 2.0.

In this model of decentralized powerand ubiquitous communication theindividuals can rapidly gather resources,

coordinate with other small units, modifyor improvise strategies, and take actionwithout lengthy consultation of militaryleaders. Tactics and techniques spreadvirally and are rapidly prototyped in amanner similar to open source innova-tion. Such actions are extremely difcultto anticipate and prepare foralmostevery response is immediately obsolete.This is superempowermentthe ability ofrelatively small groups to inict damagedisproportionate to their size.

CONSEQUENCES:

SYSTEMIC FAILURE

forcing costly stalemates, relying on tac-tics such as provocative meme warfareand the disruption of the core physicaland moral infrastructure supportingmodern society.

Most often, traditional institutions facingan open-source conict respond withmeasures that end up either weakeningtheir own ability to withstand attacks oractually strengthening the opposing in-surgency. Such responses are akin to anautoimmune disorder, a system failure inwhich defensive efforts actually damagethe bodys health. These responses mayeven trigger a feedback condition, wherethe self-inicted damage leads to furtherautoimmune reactions.

EFFECTIVE STRATEGIES:

PLATFORMS FOR RESILIENCE

Traditional institutions can, however,

take advantage of the same drivers thatenable the new insurgencies. And in fact,many argue that resiliencesupportedby exible, transparent social andtechnological networkscan minimizethe threat from open-source warfare byabsorbing attacks rather than resist-ing them. Resilience focuses on systemresponsiveness and the management ofconsequences.

Ultimately, this story is not just aboutwarfare. It will play out over the nextdecade across a variety of institutionsand industries. The ongoing friction


6/20

reso

urce

instabil

ity

Cultur

aldislo

cation

Decline

ofheg

emony

Amplifi

edexp

ession

ubiquitouscomputingtechnologiesofcooperationLightweightinfrastructures

NEW MODEL

ARMIESA new set of military

actorsprivate and withoutstate supportwill

pursue diverse goals

and ideologies

NETWORKSTRATEGIESNetworking tools andplatforms provide thesame amplication

effects for small groupsof warriors as for other

small groups

MEME

WARFARE

Meme warfare escalatesthe disruption of the softinfrastructure in a battle

for hearts and minds

AUTO-IMMUNE

SOCIETYThe encounter between

hierarchical institutions andnetworks results in allergic

responses that underminesocial and economic

functions

SYSTEM

DISRUPTIONSystem disruptions

proliferate as new modelarmies create gaps in theinfrastructure for power

grabbing and prot

PLATFORMS

FOR RESILIENCEOpen platforms and

cooperative systems shiftthe focus of strategy from

achieving stability tobuilding capacity

to respond

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POLITICS OPEN-SOURCE WARFAREPrivate armed forces

New defense industries

Semi-autonomousrobot armies

Super-empoweredindividuals

Metaverse training

Swarm war

Impoverished explosivedevices (IEDs)

Army of one

Secessionist movements

Energy infrastructure attacksClimate change as a weapon

Information network disruptions

Open-source intelligence

Open-source civil planning

Open-source simulationsand models

Social cities

Resilience-based insurance

Hollow communities

Feral cities

Genocide

Collaspse of freedoms

Environmental collapse

Culture jamming

Hactivism

Subvertising


7/20

environment the blue economy

The futureof the oceans

will takeshape at the

boundarybetween two

catalysts:the ongoing impacts of

human activities and

our growing ability to

manage environmental

systems. Even as some

celebrate a possible

new golden age of

oceanography, others

see the oceans as abattleground for new

international disputes

over efforts to alter

the oceanic environ-

ment. At the heart of

these disputes may be

the rise of a new blue

economy: even as a

catastrophic collapse of

ocean systems looms,

we see in the oceans

new potential for abun-

dant renewable energy

oceAnic collAPSe:

ActionS AnD conSeQuenceS

Weve long known that oceans are frag-ile, but the last few years have brought a

harsher knowledge: the ocean environ-ment is already close to catastrophic col-lapse. Overuse, pollution, and large-scalechanges to ocean chemistry and temper-ature threaten the survival of many spe-cies and put at risk many ecosystem ser-vices that humans have come to dependon. The drivers are manifold: populationgrowth and unsustainable development;

international competition and instability;and above all, global warming.

The littoral interface zonethe coast-lineis home to some of the greateststresses. Nitrogen runoff from overuseof fertilizer in agriculture has sterilizedlarge stretches of coastal waters. Oilspills remain a recurring problem. And

the destruction of coastal mangrovesand wetlands is eliminating a criticallayer of protection from hurricane andtsunami impacts.

A more direct threat to human societycomes from the rapid decline of shpopulations. Already, key species suchas blue n tuna, swordsh, and salmonface near-total collapse. The causes? Evermore efcient shing technologies as wellas changes in ocean chemistry.

oceAn mAnAGement:

trAnSPArent WAterS

vehicles, sophisticated models, and dis-tributed sensor arrays. Such tools mayeven allow the intentional manipulationof ocean systems as a means of combat-ing climate change.

oceAnic enGineerinG:

climAte AS cAtAlySt

Such manipulation is known as geo-engineering, and among its proponentsare those who would solve climatechange with costly and controversialplans, such as fertilizing the ocean with

iron particles to encourage algal growthand thereby remove carbon dioxidefrom the atmosphere.

At the same time, the oceans mayprovide some of the most abundantand reliable sources of renewablenon-carbon energy. Ocean powertechnologies, including both hydro-

kinetic and thermal conversion systems,could easily meet current and projectedenergy demandsand suffer from fewerintermittency and location problemsthan wind and solar systems.

The massive scale and complexity ofoceanic geo-engineering enterprisesraise many questions. They are, bydenition, uncontrollable experiments.Yet the accelerating pace of climatedisruption may make such proposalsirresistible, while the demands for foodand energy of a growing population willalmost certainly focus speculation on


8/20

Initiatives:

Ocean fertilization

Sea water pumps

Thermal pumps

Ocean-to-atmosphere pumps

Signs of failure:

Acidication

Reduced carbon uptake

Methane clathratesSource: Woods HoleOceanographic Institiution

food Wb:

Boom-up

rglaon

Bl economy:

ino-rch

envonmn

spho:

Collcv

snmakng

food Wb:

tchnox

food Wb:

exm

Plannng

Global

Climat

eCange

sens

ing&M

deli

ng

Pric

eofo

il

rise

ofec

o-Ma

nagem

ent

Botto

m-upCrisis

repo

nse

Disputes over:

Oil access

Polution disaters

North pole

Fisheries

Hydrokinetic energy

Ocean thermal energyconversion

Much deeper oil drilling

Ocean scienceinformation commons

the

blue

commonS

The ocean, like theatmosphere, is recast as a

global ecosystem servicewith commons-based

solutions

High-resolution datadrives real-time 3-D

ocean modeling

GolDen

AGe oF

oceAnoGrAPhy

the neW

SeA PoWerIn the face of fossil fuel

woes, the ocean promisessignicant renewable

energy options

bAttle

AGAinSt

GlobAl WArminG

As the oceans capacityto counter climate

change declines, extremegeoengineering measures

enter the debate

Urbanization,industrialization, and

climate chane convergesat the littoral zone the tidal area where

ocean meets land

the

littorAlconverGence

enD

oF

FiShinG

Climate change andovershing threaten

viability of globalsheries

EOS satellite data

Low-cost sensor-based data

Improved global models

Amateur scientists & NGOs

Mapping of new ocean species

Measurement of coastalecosystems services

Human coastal migration

Eco-management for disasters

New materials for littoral zones

Extinction of major sh species

Fish print impact model

Internet markets for IDd & certied sh

NGO-certied sustainable sheries

Retro shing methods

Bio-tailored local policiessea

Lvelrise

Colla

peoffo

odWeb

seaLevelArchitecture

GLoBALCLiMAteCh

AnGe

Populat

ionG

rowth

Developm

ent

unsusta

i nable

environment the blue economy

projectcross.com

wavehub.co.uk

oceanatlas.org


9/20

SUSTAINABILITY FOOD WEBS

Global climatechange,

unsustainabledevelopment,and industrialwaste are all

disrupting localfood webs

and threateningthe global web.Predator-prey cycles are

being decoupled as in-

sects emerge out-of-sync

with bird migrations. In

the United Kingdom,

mothers milk is contami-nated with 40 times the

acceptable amounts of

industrial chemicals. The

colony collapse disorder

of bees foreshadows

the long-term effects

of, among other things,

introducing non-native,highly competitive spe-

cies into the landscape.

Over the next century,

these cascading disrup-

tions will restructure the

CULTIVATED OR WILD:

ITS ALL GARDENING NOW

While environmental scientists recordthe rapid extinction of species, the food

industry enjoys a sense of immunity towhats happening in the wild. Yet theboundary between wild and cultivated isbreaking down, as feedback from indus-trial agriculturefor example, the carbonproduction of the meat industryfeedsthe cycles of climate change that disruptthe timing of predator-prey cycles.

Mainstream environmental science stillembraces a strong hands-off ethic whenit comes to wilderness food webs. Yet aninterventionist perspective is gainingadherents. Noting that human inuenceis now ubiquitous, ecologists like DanielJanzen argue that we need to becomegardeners of wild ecologies. And thisgardening is likely to look very different

from todays agro-industrial practices.

SHORT-TERM RESPONSES:

BOTTOM-UP INNOVATION

Meanwhile, worries about food webs aredriving innovation in human food man-agement at a distinctly local level, usingbottom-up processes. In Japan, 20% of

the population belongs to food coopera-tives. They form short and exible localsupply chains and demand ecologicallyfriendly production methods; they rejectpackaging as advertising; and theyfoster community connections betweenand within producers and consumers In

Many of these innovations are values-driven. They emerge from shared per-spectives of the relationship betweenenvironment, health care, and our diets.Drawing on rich information and com-

munication networks, they cast a widenetbuilding alternative infrastructuresfor food production and distributionwhile attending to both global and localimpacts. While locally focused, they arenot isolationist. Rather they are buildinga more layered, exible, and responsivesystem for human food production.

LONG-TERM STRATEGY:

ECOLOGICAL INTERVENTIONS

In the long term, the threats to theglobal food web will most likely requirea coordinated international response,drawing on the science of ecosystemmanagement. This response is likelyto engage many of todays top-down

institutions: governments, transnationalorganizations, corporations, universities,and NGOs, who will all shoulder re-sponsibility for protection of the variousfragile systemswhether for reasons ofaltruism, power, or prot.

The food-web ecosystem crosses in-dustry silos and geopolitical boundaries,and management strategies will demandcollaboration, adaptation, and exibility.It will need to integrate not only emerg-ing bottom-up food infrastructuresbut also various bio-tinkering effortsbio-engineered agriculture, genetically


10/20

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tic

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eightManufacturing

Bio-regional planningand regulation

Revised insurance rules fordevelopment

Food web modeling tools

Watershed management

Re-wilding involvement

Food footprinting

LEEDS standards

Green retail

Domestic fair trade

Buffalo commons

Native farming

Food production and distribution coopsFood value chains

Community supported agriculture

Networked victory gardens

New standards andpractices drive innovationin agriculture, retail, andconsumptionespecially

in urban contexts

The complexity & scale of

food issues drives ecosytem-based management to

the fore

www.notacorneld.com

www.seedvault.no

A DIY ethic pluscollaborative technologiessupport evolution of food

value chainsover foodsupply chains

Smart networking practices,food tracking technologies,

and concerns about eco-impacts of food drive aexible localism

Local diets

Food transparency

Organic patriotism

Agritourism

Water rights issues

Vertical farming

A number of governmentsand institutions begin

planning for the worstanticipating catastrophe

Biotechnology comes to therescue to offer a range of

sustainablebut sometimescontroversialsolutions

Post-Bovine animal engineering

NERICA rice

Inkjet-cultured meat

Self-protecting plants

Seed vaults

Frozen zoos

Disaster recovery

in-a-boxDESIGNSFOR

SUSTAINABILITY

ECOSYSTEM

MANAGEMENT

COOPERATIVE

INNOVATION

SMART

LOCALISM

EXTREME

PLANNING

TECHNOFIX

inte

gratedinfrastructureresponsibility

oPen-sourCe

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SUSTAINABILITY FOOD WEBS


11/20

INNOVATION ENABLED!

In a worldwhere people

with disabilities

have beenmarginalizedwhere products, places,

and services have been

less than accessible

to people who didnt

t the mainstream

denition of normalthe next decade may

deliver a big surprise.

In a marketplace where

new product develop-

ment for disabilities has

been seen as a niche

undertaking at best, the

disability space is nowemerging as a major

hot zone of innovation.

Why? A combination

of new technologies,

new development plat-

forms, and a new quest

for ways to become

better-than-normal isenabling people with

disabilities to become

co-innovators,

co-producers, and

co marketers of an

INNOVATION PUSH:

ENABLED COLLABORATION

Over the past decade, advances in mate-rials, sensor systems, and pharmaceuti-

cals have pushed disabilities solutionsbeyond crutches and therapies into therealm of enhancements. Rather than sim-ply restoring lost functionality, disabili-ties interventions now seek to extendabilities beyond what has been lost ormissing. Enhancement and extensioncreate new possibilities for everyone,and people with disabilities are dening

themselves as the lead users of theseenhancementsthe rst markets.

But they are not simply lead users;theyre also becoming lead innovators.Theyre collaborating in networks tocreate open-source prosthetics. Theyreleveraging new rapid prototyping toolsand todays ourishing do-it-yourself

spirit to create custom solutionsthat embed intelligence and sensorytechnology in unexpected new materials.And even when they themselves arenot the lead innovators, theyre usingcollaborative tools to nd each other,forming networks that amplify theirvoices and aggregate their power as alucrative market.

INNOVATION PULL:

FAST FOLLOWERS

At the same time, the markets for adap-tive solutions and human enhancementare growing Of the estimated 54 million

curb cuts designed to make sidewalkswheelchair-accessible.

But the pull forces go beyond new mar-kets that want the advantage of proven

utility. In a so-called experience econ-omy, new adaptations and extensionsdeveloped for people with disabilitiesprovide new ways for others to experi-ence the world as well. Markets of allagesfrom young people looking for acompetitive edge to aging boomers hop-ing to maintain peak performanceareprimed for better-than-normal solutions.Where once they sought convenience,performance, and aesthetic innovation intheir environment, they are now seekingthose same improvements in their bod-ies and minds.

INNOVATIVE WORLDVIEWS:

THE END OF NORMAL

If disabilities and their adaptations areboth seen as sources of innovation,people may move through their daystaking on disabilities or enhancementsas neededto provide strategic advan-tage or to experience the world in newways. Alternative cognitive and sensoryexperiences may drive new ways oflearning: emulating the brilliant percep-tual capacities of a person with autismor using blind adaptations to transformvisual data into music, for example,may stand side-by-side with simulationsand games as both learning strategiesand new forms of entertainment. In


12/20

innova

tionimpe

rative

exprienceeconomy

AbundantComputing

extendedself

Biocitizens

Long-taileconomics

Designforself-Customization

COLLABORATIVE

DEVELOPMENTPeople with disabilities,working collaboratively

with open-source systems,become lead innovatorsas well as lead users

NEW

COGNITIVE

HORIZONSNeuro research,cognitive enhancements

and new measures ofintelligence broaden the

spectrum of cognitiveexperiences

NEW MODES

OF SENSINGA second wave of sensor

technology creates atrans-sensory world

with technological

synesthesia providing new,multilayered experiencesof the world

NEW STANDARDS

OF PERFORMANCEDisabilities become

superabilities through better-than-normal enhancements

and set new standardsthat can only be achieved

through enhancement

NEW PATHS

TO ADOPTIONPeople with disablities

are lead usersbut the experience

economy leverages fastfollowers looking for

new experiences

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INNOVATION ENABLED!

Open-source design platforms

DIY manufacturing

Inclusive design

Open virtual worldsand games

Alertness drugs

Text-to-speech synthesizers

Talking browsers

Neural interfaces

Haptic interfaces

Customized sensory products

Trans-sensory civic spaces

Trans-sensory art

Functionality over normality

X-people lifestyles

Assistive feedback

Long-tail marketing

Aging boomer market

Experience economy

Sources: Dr. RobertGailey, Universityof Miami, Ossur, inNew York Times,May 16, 2007


13/20

work superhero organizations

Workprocesses

have beentransformedby faster,

better networkcommunication,

an increasingly

heterogeneous work-force, and new markets

for talent and services in

developing economies.

Businesses have sped

up their operations and

squeezed inefcien-

cies out of their supply

chains. But no organi-

zation has yet gured

out how to create true

competitive advantage

by using new tools and

networks to supercharge

its workforceto

take advantage of theemerging superhero skills

in young digital natives.

The next ten years will

see the emergence

of the rst such super-

human production:the new givens

The workplace of the future exists in anew techno-social world dened by four

key innovations: Social networks are now explicit. All the

friending in social networks has laidthe tracks for high-performance com-munication and collaboration.

Information can take any form and ar-rives in a torrent. Some people thrive inthe info-rehose. They can use a wide

range of media to capture and expressemerging realities.

Work happens in real time. Instantprototyping is the norm, involving realcustomers, not just a few colleagues.Information nds its way to the righthands quickly and turns into actionsright away. No delays, just constant

adaptation and course correction. Openness creates leverage. Collabora-

tion among employees and with outsidestakeholders improves when they shareinformation openly. Credibility, trust,and long-term memory all get a boost.

People adept at working with these inno-vations will outperform their peers: they

will decide faster, act faster, and mobilizemore people around shared, constantlyimproving resources.

organizational capacity:the new competencies

boundaries. Sociability will mobilizegroups and networks to create ad hocorganizational structures for innovations.Collective sensemaking will combineskills such as pattern nding and big-

picture synthesis with group facilitationand collaborative creation of persuasiveartifacts. Transliteracy will bring the dis-tinctive affordances of new media to thecreation of shared contexts and conceptsthat mobilize action. And beta buildingwill develop platforms to create offeringsthat are never nished but always evolv-ing in a public, collaborative space.

In this organizational environment,training moves beyond the walls ofthe organization and into networks ofpeer-to-peer learners. Social networksperform the sorting functionbuildingafliations of people that leveragedifferent sets of superhero skills. Theseare the guilds of the future, looselystructured around different styles ofcollective sensemaking, sociability,transliteracy, beta building, and openleadership. The online trails that peopleleave as they navigate these networksbecome their long-lasting resume.

counter trend:

the kryptonumerite scenario

These superhero organizations celebratehuman skills and capacities. But someof the same new capacitiespervasivemonitoring and visualization, harvestingof open information sources, and social


14/20

Digita

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Beta

BuildingAn emphasis on transparencyand collaborative open

develoment means everythingis always in beta

including organizationalprocesses

krypto-

numeriteIn the organizationalequivalent of kryptonite,

misuse of automatedquantication and

visualization undermineorganizational

exibility

trans-literacy

Cross-platform literaciesemerge as a core

competencycombining

traditional literaciesand new media collectivesensemaking

Teams and networksuse bottom-up tools to

discover patterns in largecomplex systemsand trigger faster

responses

sociaBility

Ad hoc organizationalstructures emerge as large

groups and extended

networks self-organize tofocus attention

on pressing issuesand tasksopen

leadershipOpen leadership

leverages open systemsto tap the vision and

capabilities of diversestakeholders inside

and outside multipleorganizations

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Mortgage/credit rulesEvidence-based medicine

Standards-based education reform

Microblogging

DIY collaboratives

Open authorship

Protovation

Signal/noise management

EmergensightLongbroading

Mobbability

Ping quotient

Cooperation radar

Multicapitalism

Inuency

Digital video

Webcasting and podcasting

Social networking

Visual literacies

Blogging & photosharing

Collective ltering

Social software simulations

Location management

Attention management

Presence management

Identity management

Social ltering

work superhero organizations

s s:


15/20

Longheralded as

thenext wavein computing,pervasive computing

is nally becoming

a reality. Soon, it

will be possible to

instrument our world

with sensors, actuators,and processors, and

information processing

will be integrated into

nearly all objects and

environments. Over

the next decade, this

technology may nd its

premiere applicationin helping us cope

with environmental

challengespervasive

computing may

become pervasive

eco-monitoring. But

the balance sheet for

the planet may not be

entirely favorable: the

environmental costs of

the technology could

themselves outweigh

h b

THE REALLY BIG PICTURE:

MAKING THE VISIBLE INVISIBLE

Pervasive computing promises a light-weight approach to building a sustain-

ability infrastructurea pervasiveeco-monitoring network that showswhats really happening in large complexecological systems, in real time. Indeed,pervasive computing could make detailedinformation about resource and energyusage visible, from the scale of house-holds to cities and even continents. Itcould proactively guide more efcient

uses of those resources and provide bothofcials and individuals with informationabout local pollution, energy waste, orhealth threats. Most importantly, thesesystems will deliver immediate feedbackabout the short- and long-term conse-quences of actions taken in the present.

Massively large-scale environmental sens-

ing projects are already underway. TheNational Ecological Observatory Network(NEON) is laying the groundwork fordistributed sensor monitoring of eco-logical systems at the continental scale.MITs Media Lab is pursuing wikicityprojects that combine data feeds fromlocal utilities and services to provide real-time maps of major metropolitan areas.

Meanwhile, tools like Australias CSIROCatchment Modeling Toolkit provideopen- source modules for modeling theuse of water. Such tools also be criticalnot only in policy, but also in the develop-ment of economic innovations tied to sus-

pervasive computing promises to engagethe public in a more personal bottom-upenvironmental science. Mobile sensorscould help citizens measure directly howurban pollution impacts key personal

health measures in real timeas well asdocumenting patterns of urban health.Instrumented trashcans could yieldhousehold insights into a familys role inthe ecological lifecycle of productsandprole waste patterns at the neighbor-hood, city, or even regional level. Thechallenge will come from reconcilingthese new freedoms of environmental

information with the uses of that infor-mation. Who owns it? Who has access toit? And how does it feed policy, regula-tion, even law enforcement?

THE FINAL TALLY:

THE PARADOX OF SMALL

Pervasive computing works for eco-

monitoring because its small, distribut-ed, andwellpervasive. But therein liesa paradox: as small as networked sen-sors are, their own ecological footprintis potentially very large. The smaller adevice, the more resources and energyare required in its manufacture. And per-vasive computing requires lots and lotsof these devices. Their waste is rife with

lead, mercury, and other toxins, whiletheir rapid obsolescence wreaks havocon the landll.

Fortunately, the computer industry hasstepped up its commitment to green

TECHNOLOGY PERVASIVE ECO-MONITORING


16/20

CRADE-TO-CRADLESYSTEMS

PYRAMIDDESIGN

BOTTOMOF

ECO-PROCESSESASCOMMODITIES

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TIOUSCOMPUTING E-WASTE

The balance sheet foreco-monitoring is

challenged by the highecological backpack of

very small devices

RECYCLE

& REUSE

E-tracking supportsrecycling of both

electronic and othermanufactured goods

Pervasive eco-monitoringbecomes a new frontierof civic lifeas people

use P2P tools and mobilesensing to track eco

trouble spots

BOTTOM-UP

ECO-REGULATION

MASSIVELY RICH

INFORMATION

ENVIRONMENTSVery large-scale sensing,

datamining, and modeling

systems provide real-time decision support for

complex ecologies

Embedded and wearablesensing tools help people

track their personal impactson the environment

PERSONAL

SUSTAINABLE

ECOLOGIES

Products take advantage ofembedded intelligence toto reduce their ecological

footprintpossibly

SUSTAINABLE

DESIGN

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Digital dumps

Re-mining metals

Lifecycle energy burden

Proliferation of devices

Home resource monitoring

Hypermiling

SMS environmental feedsWearable health monitors

Personal footprints

Dematerialized goods

Multi-functional devices

Virtual leisure

Appropriate networks

Design for disassembly

Takeback programsSpime tracking

Citizen sensor networks

Community footprints

Product & service footprints

A new sensing divide

Urban pulse maps

Terrestrial ecology observingsystems (TEOS)

Agricultural & cattle monitoring

Continental-scale modeling

Water modeling

World Wide Sensor Web

TECHNOLOGY PERVASIVE ECO-MONITORING

Spime: virtually registered manufacturedobject with built-in RFID tracking

agilewaves.com/products.

ban.org/films/images/TheDigitalDump.jpg

www.nokia.com/A4707477


17/20

METHODOLOGY NEURO-FUTURES

As a species, weface challenges

today that arevastly differentfrom those we

evolved to dealwith scale,complexity,

and the speedof change all

challenge us tothink in new

ways about the

future.Over the last decade,scientists, especially

neuroscientists, have

created a detailed

picture of just how we

think about the future. It

seems we have a unique

neurophysiology for thistask. But as we face a

more complex future,

this neurophysiology may

actually work against

us and also point to new

FUTURE AND PAST:

CONNECTIONS IN THE BRAIN

Past and future appear to be intricatelylinked in the human brain. Scientists

have found that children simultaneouslydevelop the ability to recall the past,imagine what they might do in the future,and distinguish both from the present.People with severe amnesia have dif-culty imagining themselves in the future:a patient is unable to imagine specicevents in his personal future ... despiteno loss in general imagery abilities.

Neuroscientists watching the brainin real-time with fMRI have found aphysical basis for connections betweenpast and future: subjects thinking aboutpast and future events activate similarspecic portions of the brain. Even ata basic neurological level, human pastsand futures are connected.

FEATURES & BUGS:

THE FUTURE IS IN BETA

It turns out that the ability to think aboutthe future is still in beta. Humans makepredictable, systematic errors whenthinking about the future, and theseerrors can sabotage our efforts to make

good choices and follow through ongood decisions. For example:

Large complex problems: Oursensitivity to small, highly visibleproblems makes us less able to handlelarge more abstract problems In one

State changes: We also have troubleplanning for futures that involve statesradically different from our ownconstructing grocery lists after a largemeal, for example, or planning for lean

times when business is good.

Multiple options: The way problemsand options are presented affect howwe respond to them. For example,lottery players who choose their ownwinning numbers spend more thanthose who play randomly assignednumbers. Even though, statistically, the

odds arent improved, the feeling ofcontrol encourages bigger bets.

TOOLS AND AUGMENTATIONS:

HACKING FUTURES THINKING

Psychological insights have informedthe invention of methods, tools, andstrategies for managing various forms

of futures bias. For example, collectiveforecastingcrowdsourcing, predictionmarkets, collaborative gamingcan helpadjust for personal bias. Recognizing theinuence of emotional states on futuresthinking could lead to a new emphasison monitoring and manipulating moods.Finally, various visualization tools andimmersion strategies can help people

vividly imagine futures that might seemtoo abstract, impersonal, or other-wise unimaginable.

Given the magnitude of challenges weface today, we need to develop a new


18/20

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Future time perspective (FTP)

Shifts from optimismNear-term choice management

State-specic forecasting

Positive psychology

Mood alternations

Option management

Gross domestic happiness

Emotion maps

A new emphasis on happinessmeasures leads to new

strategies for evaluatingthe future Recognition of the impact of

local context on biases aboutthe future leads to new tools

and practices to alter thelocal cotext

simulation

Mark

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Ag

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Psycholo

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Brain

Mappin

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LOCAL

CONTEXTUAL

INTERVENTIONS

HAPPINESS

STRATEGIES

COLLECTIVE

CORRECTIONS

HUMANFUTURE

INTERACTION

BIAS

MANAGEMENT

MEMORY

ENHANCEMENTS

Crowd sourcing

Predictive markets

Collabaoratve forecasting

Games

Open-source scenarios

Organizational citizenshipbehaviors (OCBs)

New tools bridge our present-day neurocellular responses

with our future social andnatural environments

Future prototyping

Risk maps

Visualization tools

Brainwave sensors

If biases arising from personalexperience taint our views

of the future, collectiveforecasting may provide

a corrective lens

www.neurosky.biz

The neurological link betwenmemory and future thinking

will drive new tools andstrategies for improvinglong-term planning

Institutional memories

Popular histories

Personal narratives

Better understanding ofcognitive and affective

biases will inform rules ofthumb for futures research

and strategic planning

Scope insensitivity

Motivated skepticism

Projection biases

Memory biases

Belief biases

Availability heuristics

Conjuncation fallacies

Hindsight biases

METHODOLOGY NEURO-FUTURES

www.sciencemuseum.org.uk


19/20

Culture new Commons

Newcommons are

springing upin the fertile

ground ofin-between

spacesbetween private andpublic, social and

economic, digital and

physical, individual and

group, tangible and

intangiblecreating a

new cultural platform

for dening our rela-

tionships to each other,

to resources, and to our

collective long-term fu-

ture. What makes a new

commons? Dispersed

communities use new

digital tools for identitycreation and afliation

to create and protect

new kinds of value from

the bottomup.

new seCtor:An AlternAtive to mArkets

And Governments

Over the past century, civic debates

and market strategies have focusedon the balance of power between thepublic and private sectors. Peter Barnesdescribes the new commons as a thirdeconomic sector in Capitalism 3.0. Yo-chai Benkler proposes a new productioncommons as a mode of bottom-up, peer-based value creation. And David Bolliersuggests a new commons movement as

an emerging vocabulary to help com-munities align their economic, social, andethical concerns in the 21st century. Fivekey trends drive these new commons:

The enclosure of public resourceshas triggered the formationof new commons to addressinequalities of access.

The success of self-organizedopen systems provides new mod-els for managing large-scale com-mons and architecting systems ofincreasing returns.

Worldwide market expansiontends to commoditize resourcesthat arent owned, managed, or

protected driving explicit newalternatives for managing themas commons.

Growing system failures haveinspired commons as more ex-ible and robust alternatives for

new PrinCiPles:GeoGrAPhiCAlly AGnostiC,

diGitAlly suPPorted, sustAinAble,

And GenerAtive

Commons are traditionally dened asshared resources managed by thosewho use them and vulnerable to socialdilemmas in which the tension betweenthe individual and the group can lead todestruction or dysfunction. These tradi-tional commons are often geographicallydenedwaterways or forests that servea region, for example. Finally, they are

typically material resources that canbe depleted.

New commons differ in signicant ways.Like traditional commons they areshared resources that are managed bythose who use them and can fall preyto the destructive forces of short-termself-interest. But they are often built on

intangible, more than material value, sothey need not be limited to a particulargeography or a geographically boundedcommunity. Also, many new commonsare non-depletable: using them doesntuse them up but instead creates addi-tional value. And nally, most new com-mons take advantage of global digitalcommunications infrastructures to both

create and manage value.

Examples of such new commons rangefrom open-source curricula in learningcommons to open ID protocols inso-called identity commons. The most


20/20

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Locativetools

failingCities

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Profi

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money

Commons

Financial regulationand limited investment

instruments drivenew P2P investment

strategies

PoliCyCommons

Innovations ingovernance experiment

with commons-basedapproaches to policy and

decision making

inFrAstruCture

CommonsPeer-to-peer structures

combine with new and oldtechnologies to provide

infrastructure that is

neither a public good nora private utility

urbAn

CommonsLayering information,

media, and networks onthe built environment

creates new collectively

maintained urbancivic spaces

leArninG

CommonsAs public education

fails to meet the globalneed for a literate citizenry,learning commons generate

sustainable resourcesand processes

identity

CommonsFreeing personal

virtual identities fromprivate websites, identitycommons balance control

and openness

In response to patentingof basic components of

life, biocommons emergeas shared repositories

of bio-information

bioCommons

heAlth

CommonsAs private health

care costs soar, peopletake health into their

collective hands

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Culture new CommonsSocial lending

Money pooling faciliatators

Micropledging

Trust-based donations

Micro-lending

Solari investment circles

Bottom-up aggregation oftreatment options

Childhood health as

a commonsWorkplace health commons

Donation-based health care

Health and wellness mobs

Social solutions commons

Technology supported town meetings

Electronic polling software

Electronic decision making

Open government databases

Wireless mesh networks

Net metering + local power generation

Open spectrum

Open internet

Bicycle and car sharing

Open source curricula

Media mashups and multiplayergames

Learning technology commonsOpen academic journals

Social bookmarking

Open databases and wikis

Green maps

Urban pulse maps

Community currencies

Local purchasing rewards

Stigmergy and artist communities

Social graphing

Freesouls movement

Open ID protocols

Persistent avatars

Open-sourcepharma

Ethnobotanicaldatabases

Genetic geneologydatabases

Benets sharing

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