visionary who is also considered the #1 Chinawatcher. Lee, who has advised many Chineseand U.S. presidents, is a pithy analyst of U.S.-China power struggles. In Lee Kuan Yew: TheGrand Master’s Insights on China, the UnitedStates, and the World, Lee pulls no punches inexpressing his views on China’s future. Askedwhether China is serious about replacing theU.S. as the number one power in Asia and theworld, Lee said, “Of course. Why not?” (Seemore on China, page 4.)

Spring 2013 www.belfercenter.org

The Belfer Center’s faculty and fellows aremounting a multi-pronged academic cam-

paign on China, hoping to influence U.S. policyon how to deal with the rising Asian power. Adizzying array of initiatives is under way.One effort builds on the U.S.-China Rela-

tions Project begun in 2006 by Belfer CenterAdjunct Professor Richard Rosecrance andthe Chinese Academy of Social Sciences toreduce potential conflict between a currentand a rising power. Harvard Kennedy SchoolDean David Ellwood, Belfer Center DirectorGraham Allison, Professor Joseph Nye, AshCenter for Democratic Governance andInnovation Director Tony Saich, and a teamof other Harvard notables journeyed withRosecrance to Beijing for a conference in January with Chinese scholars and practi-tioners. The conference, co-sponsored withthe Kennedy School’s Ash Center, weighedpolicy recommendations to enhance the U.S.-China relationship and to expand bilat-eral cooperative research.Also in January, a team from the Center’s

Project on Managing the Atom traveled toChina to take part in workshops on nuclearenergy planning and nuclear safety and secu-rity in China.

China Working Group discussesU.S. strategy toward multiple

China challenges.

On campus, the Belfer Center China Work-ing Group hosts discussions among Har -vard faculty members about all dimensions of

Belfer Center Intensifies Focus on China

See Inside . . .Graham Allison on Harvard-China History 2

Bridging the Basic/Applied Research Dichotomy 3

China: Challenges & Cooperation 4, 5

Q&A with Dara Kay Cohen 6

Spotlight with Gary Samore 7

Lessons from Diplomatic Visitors 9

Serving in the New ObamaAdministration 12, 13

Our Social Media and You 15

U.S. strategy toward the China challenge—political, military, economic, and diplomatic.The group is co-chaired by Graham Allison,Center board member Lawrence Summers,and Belfer Center Senior Fellow Gen. (ret.)James Cartwright. Cyber threats from China and elsewhere

are being addressed through the Center’sExplorations in Cyber International Relationsinitiative, which brings together experts inlaw, international relations, engineering, andother areas to study cyber issues.

ETIP is exploring solutions towater problems in China.

The Belfer Center’s Energy TechnologyInnovation Policy (ETIP) research group isexploring solutions to water problems inChina where water scarcity is a major prob-lem in the North, the location of most of thecountry’s energy development. ETIP andother Center research fellows also are con-tributing research findings and commentaryon China’s air quality problems and otherenvironmental challenges. In February, Graham Allison and Robert

Blackwill published a new book about LeeKuan Yew—the Singapore founder and

To Collaboration and Cooperation: CHEN Gang, vice mayor of Beijing Municipal Government, raises a toast forHarvard guests in Beijing, including (from left seated) Nicholas Burns, Joseph S. Nye, and Richard Rosecrance.

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Moving Forward: Gary Samore (left), former head ofWMD counter-terrorism and arms control in theObama administration, has been named executivedirector for research at the Belfer Center. (See Spotlight,page 7.) Kevin Ryan, former executive director ofresearch, is now head of the Center’s new Defense andIntelligence Projects. (See Kevin Ryan, page 2.)

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The strategic partnership betweenHarvard and China is unique

among universities of the world.This relationship is reflected indecades of scholarship in Cam-bridge, tens of thousands of Chinese

graduates of Harvard degree and executive programs, and the policiesof both governments that have brought us to this point. Considerseven dimensions of this multi-faceted partnership.First, before the U.S. was a nation, trading ships from Massachusetts

sold American furs and ginseng and Spanish bullion in the cantons ofChina. Soon enough, Harvard students were employed by China’sImperial Maritime Customs Service; in 1879, a Chinese teacher wasinvited with his family to teach Chinese. Second, the dean of modern Western studies of China was noted

Harvard scholar John Fairbank. Fairbank joined the faculty in 1936 asHarvard’s first full-time specialist on Chinese history. After workingfor the OSS in China during World War II, Fairbank returned to theUnited States, wrote the seminal United States and China, and foundedHarvard’s Center for East Asian Research.

Harvard-China ties reach back to America’s colonial daysThird, the architect of the rapprochement between the U.S. and Chinawas Harvard’s own Henry Kissinger. When first preparing to meet

Kevin Ryan Heads New Defense and Intelligence Project

Kevin Ryan, the Belfer Center’s former executive director for research, has been named direc-tor of the Center’s Defense and Intelligence Project. The position gives Ryan lead responsi-

bility for initiatives focused on defense and intelligence. He will also continue to lead the ElbeGroup as part of the Preventing Nuclear Terrorism project and will remain a member of theBelfer Center Board of Directors. In announcing Ryan’s new position, Belfer Center Director Graham Allison said, “Kevin has

done an outstanding job as executive director, and I am glad he has agreed to take the lead onthis new project. His 30 years of service in the military, which included duties in missile defense,policymaking, and intelligence, make him ideal to lead this effort.”

Upcoming projects include . . . improving relations between the U.S., Russian, and Chinese militaries.

The new initiative will link defense and intelligence agencies with Belfer researchers, faculty,and Kennedy School students to facilitate better policy-making in the field and enrich the edu-cation of fellows and students about defense and intelligence. Upcoming projects includeexploring the relationship between civilian leaders and the uniformed military in the U.S.defense establishment and increasing understanding between the two, improving relationsbetween the U.S., Russian, and Chinese militaries, and looking at the role of intelligence agen-cies in domestic and international policy-making.

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with the Chinese government, Kissinger remarked that he knew “noth-ing” about China. He thus returned to Harvard to consult with JohnFairbank and Owen Lattimore for a crash course in Sinology. Fourth, Harvard has a long tradition of leadership in research on

China, reflected in the work of scholars like Ezra Vogel, DwightPerkins, Roderick MacFarquar, and Alastair Iain Johnston. It is noaccident that Vogel is the major biographer of Deng Xiaoping, the Chi-nese leader who initiated China’s march to modernization throughadoption of a market economy.

Expertise from Fairbank and Kissinger to Vogel and SaichFifth, Harvard has long had a connection with the quintessential Asian“tiger” state, Singapore, beginning with Lee Kuan Yew. While PrimeMinister of Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew was one of Harvard’s Institute ofPolitics’ first visiting fellows. I am pleased to have co-authored a newbook on Lee Kuan Yew with former Belfer Center colleague Bob Black-will, which allowed us to spend many hours interviewing the 89-year-old Sage of Singapore, who is indeed as TIME put it, “the man who sawthe future.” (See page 5.)

Sixth, graduates from Harvard Kennedy School programs are play-ing leading roles in China: Li Yuanchao just began a five-year term asvice president of China, and Liu He, a senior economic advisor to Pres-ident Xi Jinping, has been called “China’s Larry Summers.” DonaldTsang, Hong Kong’s chief executive from 2005 to 2012, and a majorityof the Hong Kong cabinet are HKS graduates.

HKS is training next generation of Chinese leadersSeventh, thanks to the leadership of Professor Tony Saich, today Har-vard Kennedy School is the principal training ground for next-genera-tion leaders of China. For more than a decade, Saich has brought toppoliticians and public servants to training programs in Cambridge,among them Commerce Minister Chen Deming and Shaanxi ProvinceGovernor Zhao Zhenyong. Drawing on this history, it is no surprise that the Belfer Center com-

munity is focusing ever more closely on the geostrategic challenge of theera: a challenge of Thucydidean proportions as a rising power and a rul-ing power seek to define a new, productive great power relationship.

FROM THE DIRECTOR

Visionary Views: Center Director Graham Allison (right) and Ambassador Robert D.Blackwill (left) discuss their new book Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights onChina, the United States, and the World at Harvard Kennedy School. The moderatorwas the Belfer Center’s new Executive Director for Research Gary Samore.

Military Matters: Kevin Ryan, director of the BelferCenter’s Defense and Intelligence Project, introducesstudents and faculty to a screening and discussion ofthe movie Breaker Morant, a film about the Boer Warthat confronts viewers with “moral and legaldilemmas in the military sphere.”

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Patience in Progress:Robert Stavins (2nd from right),director of the Harvard Project, participates in a paneldiscussion with Chairman Fahad Al-Attiya of the QatarNational Food Security Program in Doha, and others.

Questions about the very nature of scien-tific discovery are being raised by Belfer

Center experts Venkatesh (Venky) Narayana-murti, Tolu Odumosu, and Lee Vinsel.Their new discussion paper, entitled “The

Discovery-Invention Cycle: Bridging theBasic/Applied Dichotomy,” describes thelongstanding paradigm that separates basicresearch and discovery from applied researchand implementation—for example, separat-ing the study of the DNA of a bacteria fromthe application of that knowledge to developnew drugs and compounds.The authors make the case that both scien-

tific discovery and technological deploymentwould be better off without a virtual wall. Asthey write in “Issues in Science and Technol-ogy,” “The switch from a basic/appliednomenclature to discovery-invention is not a

In December, the member nations of theUnited Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change met in Doha, Qatar, for theEighteenth Conference of the Parties (COP-18) to discuss climate change on a global level. The Harvard Project on Climate Agree-

ments co-hosted, with the government ofQatar, an event entitled “After Doha: Balanc-ing Adaptation, Mitigation, and EconomicDevelopment.” Robert Stavins, Director ofThe Harvard Project on Climate Agreementsand Belfer Center board member, representedthe Project at the general conference—andgave the hosts high marks.“There were three aspects to what we iden-

tified in advance as success, and [The Qataris]achieved all three, though maybe not to thedegree or in the way that every country in the

Climate Conference Moves Forward—Slowlyworld would have preferred,” Stavins said ofthe event.

Doha successes: Kyoto extension,Durban progress, Long-term

action track

Stavins applauded the extension amend-ment to the Kyoto Protocol, the finalization ofthe Long-Term Cooperative Action track, andprogress on the Durban Platform forEnhanced Action—all components of climatepolicy that will be pivotal in the next COPmeetings and agreements.Stavins and the Harvard Project on Cli-

mate Agreements also hosted a side-event atCOP-18, titled “Market Mechanisms in aPost-Durban International Climate Regime.”

Breaking Down Walls Between Basic and Applied Research

JAIM

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ADDAD

Domestically, the issue of climate change isagain heating up, following President

Obama’s State of the Union speech, where he

Climate Reporting from the Inside

Hot Topic:Washington Post reporter Juliet Eilperinspeaking at Harvard Kennedy School.

mere semantic refinement. It enables us to seethe entire research enterprise in a new way.”

Switching to ‘discovery-invention’nomenclature enables us to see

research in a new way.

“This fresh view of the research enterprisecan lead us to rethinking the design of researchinstitutions to align with the principles of longtimeframes, a premium on futuristic ideas, andthe encouragement of interaction among dif-ferent elements of the research ecosystem.”It is the hope of the authors that such a

change can reinvigorate government-led sci-entific endeavors, particularly in long-rangefields like energy and medicine.(See http://belfercenter.org/Discovery/Invention)

—Andrew Facini

Participants in this event assessed the designand potential role of “new market mecha-nisms” in the Kyoto Protocol second commit-ment period, among other topics.

—Robert Stowe

surprised many by discussing the issue moreopenly and at greater length than anticipated.

Executive action [on climate change] may take

place . . . this year.—Juliet Eilperin

An “insider’s viewpoint” of the politicalenvironment on climate change was pre-sented by veteran Washington Post reporterJuliet Eilperin in January. In an event orga-nized by Cristine Russell, senior fellow withthe Environment and Natural Resources Pro-gram, Eilperin noted the changing attitudeand rhetoric about climate change followingObama’s re-election.

“After a long time, Barack Obama is mak-ing news about climate change again,” Eilperinsaid to the audience of about fifty KennedySchool students and faculty members.Considered one of the nation’s top envi-

ronmental reporters, Eilperin has seen manywell-intentioned efforts regarding climatebecome buried under political pressures,media exposure, and more distracting currentevents.In her opinion, “Americans will see some

progress on [climate] issues in the next fouryears. Congressional action is very unlikely,and executive action may instead take place,even by the end of this year.”

—Andrew Facini

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Sponsored by the Institute for China-U.S.People-to-People Exchange and by Har-vard Kennedy School’s Belfer and Ash Cen-ters, the “Challenge and Cooperation”conference at Peking University in Januaryexplored the implications of China’s new lead-ership and President Obama’s second term.Participants examined the roles the two coun-tries should play in international security andin trade and investment issues. In addition toRichard Rosecrance, who launched the U.S.-China Relations Project in 2006, Belfer Centerparticipants included Center Director Gra-ham Allison, Nicholas Burns, Joseph Nye,David Sanger, William Tobey, and StephenWalt, as well as International Council memberDavid Richards.

Rosecrance: The two countrieshave been “moving farther apart.”

At the conclusion of the conference, Rose-crance noted that “despite the cordial per-sonal relations on both sides, no agreementswere reached on short- and long-term pol-icy.” He added that the two countries, have, infact, been “moving farther apart” since theU.S.-China program began in 2006.

Points of divergence, Rosecrance said,included the Chinese representatives’ declara-tion that the Obama administration’s “pivotto Asia” had begun a policy of balancingagainst China. The Harvard group, led byJoseph Nye, observed that China was creatingits own “self-containment” by insisting onterritorial claims to island groups in East Asia,thus alienating Japan, the Philippines, Viet-nam, and South Korea. At Secretary of StateHillary Clinton’s request, Nye met in Octo-ber with prime ministers of Japan and Chinato discuss the American position on their dis-pute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. TheUnited States had taken no position on theseclaims and was, if anything, encouragingChina’s rise and influence. It was, however,worried that popular nationalism in Chinawas making these conflicts worse.

Allison: Beware the “Thucydides’ Trap”

Graham Allison noted that the “Thucy-dides’ trap” suggests that status quo countries“fear the growing power” of rising claimantsand react accordingly. No one could predict apeaceful outcome.

Rosecrance suggested that China and theU.S. might consider a “differentiation offunction,” as Bismarck and Disraeli did in the1870s—with Germany the land power andBritain the sea power.

Belfer and Ash Centers Expand U.S.-China Bridge-Building(continued from page 1)

Stately Presence: Harvard Kennedy School’s Tony Saich (left) and Dean David Ellwood at a formal meeting withLIWei, director of the Development Research Council, and WANG Jingqing, vice minister of the OrganizationDepartment of the Peoples Republic of China.

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JIA Qingguo, the local conference host,claimed that China had two identities, onepacific (international) and one more assertive(domestic) and it needed American under-standing to move to a more consistent posi-tion. Tony Saich, however, believed thatdomestic influences would become evenmore important in Chinese policy.

Nye: The world’s two largest economies have “much

to gain” from cooperation.

In a New York Times op-ed publishedsoon after the conference, Joseph Nye argued

that “the world’s two largest economies havemuch to gain from cooperation on fightingclimate change, pandemics, cyberterrorism,and nuclear proliferation.”

At the end of the conference WANG Jisi,dean of International Studies at Beijing Uni-versity, raised the conferees’ sights by observ-ing that the United States and China weremore likely to reach a global deal than onelimited to the Pacific and East Asia.

—Conference notes contributed by Richard Rosecrance

For complete Rosecrance summary, seehttp://belfercenter.org/RosecranceChina/.

China Challenges: General (ret.) James E. Cartwright (center), former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staffand a senior fellow with the Belfer Center, discusses cyber security challenges relating to China during a meetingof the Belfer Center’s China Working Group. Other members of the group pictured include (left to right):Lawrence Summers, Ezra Vogel, and Richard Rosecrance.

223753 BCSIA NL_S13_141980 BSCIA 3/27/13 10:08 AM Page 4

Ensuring Nuclear Safety and Security in China attended, including Deng Ge (China AtomicEnergy Authority), Liu Daming and GuZhongmao (China Institute of AtomicEnergy), Zhu Xuhui (China NationalNuclear Corporation), Liu Tianshu (China’sNational Nuclear Safety Administration), LiuWei (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), ZhangTuosheng (China Foundation for Interna-tional and Strategic Studies), Li Hong(CACDA), and Tang Yingmao (INST, PekingUniversity).

Lee Kuan Yew: The Man and the Book “tiger,” and noticed his growing influencethroughout Asia. They later watched himmentor every Chinese leader since DengXiaoping, and counsel every U.S. presidentsince Nixon.

“If you are interested in thefuture of Asia, which means the

future of the world, you’ve got toread this book.” —Fareed Zakaria

Allison, the Belfer Center’s director, andBlackwill, a former Harvard professor andnow a senior fellow at the Council on ForeignRelations, with Belfer Center associate AliWyne, have written a new book that has peo-ple once again focusing on Lee, now 89 and asblunt as ever. Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Mas-ter’s Insights on China, the United States,and the World, was published in February byMIT Press. Fareed Zakaria said on his weeklySunday talk program on CNN: “This shortbook [is] packed with intelligence andinsight. If you are interested in the future ofAsia, which means the future of the world,you’ve got to read this book.”

Media interest in the book has beenintense, in the U.S. and around the world.Allison and Blackwill appeared on “On Pointwith Tom Ashbrook,” the syndicated NPRprogram, and the book spawned numerous

excerpts and op-eds. The first printing soldout in days and Amazon and MIT Press bothstruggled to keep the book in stock.

Lee Kuan Yew’s characteristics ofa great leader: “self-confidence,

breadth of mind, ability to see the wood for the trees,

and to communicate.”

Lee’s connections with Harvard run deep.During a one-day visit Lee made to HarvardKennedy School in 1967, Professor RichardNeustadt invited him to return for a longerstay. Lee returned the next year and stayed forsix weeks as a fellow of the Institute of Politics.

His legacy at the Kennedy School lives onin part through the Ash Center’s Lee KuanYew Fellows Program, which each year hosts20 to 25 Asian mid-career students as fellowsfor one semester.

In October 2000, he spoke in theKennedy School Forum at the invitation ofthen-Dean Joseph Nye. Lee’s description ofthe characteristics of leaders he admiredcould be equally applied to his own leader-ship: “The characteristics they had in com-mon were self-confidence, breadth of mind,the ability to see the wood for the trees, andto communicate.”

(See Lee Kuan Yew book website at http://belfer-center.org/LKY.)

The Harvard Crimson was prescient in itsprofile of Lee Kuan Yew on October 23,

1967: Reporter Joel R. Kramer wrote: “LeeKuan Yew, prime minister of the city-state ofSingapore, is a mayor who talks as though hemay one day be a world statesman.”

Those who took early notice of Leeincluded Graham Allison and Robert Black-will. They watched Lee’s success in trans-forming his native Singapore into Asia’s first

5

insider threats, and preparations for the 2014Nuclear Security Summit.

Belfer Center participants includedMatthew Bunn, Martin Malin, WilliamTobey, and Hui Zhang. MTA fellow ZhaoShangui, who will return to China’s Ministryof Environmental Protection, discussedChina’s safety and security regulations.

A number of senior Chinese technicalexperts and policy officials from China’snuclear energy and regulatory agencies

Most of the global growth of nuclearpower over the coming decade will

occur in China. The safety and security poli-cies guiding that growth are significant farbeyond China, since an accident or act of ter-rorism would affect the use of nuclear energyaround the world.

In January, the Managing the Atom Pro-ject (MTA) held a workshop in Shenzhen,China, to discuss safety and security atChina’s nuclear power and fuel cycle facili-ties. The China Arms Control and Disarma-ment Association (CACDA), and PekingUniversity’s Institute for Nuclear Scienceand Technology (INST) co-sponsored theworkshop.

The safety and security policiesguiding China’s nuclear energy

growth are significant farbeyond China.

Experts and policy officials discussednuclear regulations in China, materialaccounting practices, physical protectionmeasures at nuclear power plants, countering

Managing Power: The Managing the Atom team in front of a nuclear power plant in China. Left to right: MartinMalin, Hui Zhang, William Tobey, Matthew Bunn, and Zhao Shangui.

223753 BCSIA NL_S13_141980 BSCIA 3/27/13 10:08 AM Page 5

mechanism an armed group uses can predictthe occurrence of wartime rape. Specifically,state and non-state armed groups that recruitby force—through abduction or pressgang-ing—use rape to create unit cohesion. Thisargument helps resolve important puzzlesabout the nature of rape during wartime,including why so much of the rape thatoccurs in wartime is gang rape, when gangrape is relatively rare in peacetime. I arguethat the increase in gang rape is because rapeis serving an important purpose for thearmed group, namely, to increase social ties ingroups where the fighters have been forciblykidnapped, and have no foundation on whichto base mutual trust or esteem.

QWhy do people rape in war situationswhen they wouldn’t in peacetime?

Perpetrators of gang rape are . . .more similar to those

who perpetrate other forms of group violence.

A common story about wartime rape is thatconflict brings with it a chaos that allows per-petrators an opportunity to rape thatwouldn’t be possible during peacetime. Butmost people—even during war—do notrape, despite ample opportunity. So anyexplanation of wartime rape has to movebeyond a simple opportunity argument.Criminological researchers have found thatperpetrators of gang rape are fundamentallydifferent from those who perpetrate rapealone—they are less pathological, and moresimilar to those who perpetrate other formsof group violence. This sheds light on howordinary people in the context of wartimecan succumb to the pressure to perpetrategroup violence, and especially forms of vio-lence they might never commit alone. A sur-prising illustration of this logic is theparticipation of women in acts of wartimerape. When women are forcibly recruited toserve as fighters alongside men, they may alsoparticipate in acts of gang rape with theirmale peers. I interviewed female perpetratorsof rape in Sierra Leone, but similar acts havebeen documented in Rwanda, Liberia and theDemocratic Republic of the Congo.

QIs rape occurring more often in recentwars?

The honest answer is that we simply do notknow. The data I’ve collected on rape duringall recent civil wars show that reports ofwartime rape over the last three decades haveincreased in both incidence and severity; thatis, reports have become more numerous, anddescribe rape in increasingly dire terms.Some scholars have argued that these reportsaccurately reflect the underlying incidence,while others maintain that we are better atmeasuring and collecting reports of rapethan we were in the past. The authors of the2012 Human Security Report argued thatbecause there are fewer wars than in the past,and these wars are less lethal, then it is likelythat wartime rape has actually declined inrecent years.

QYou have written that while there is abelief that rape takes place in every con-

flict, this is not the case. Why are there morerapes in some conflicts than others?

There is enormous variation in rape duringwartime, both across and within conflicts. Myresearch examines why some armed groupsperpetrate rape on a massive scale but otherarmed groups do not—even within the con-text of the same war. Wartime rape is a phe-nomenon for which there are numerousconventional wisdoms about its causes, e.g.,that rape is more likely during ethnic wars ormore likely in countries with especially pro-nounced gender inequality. But I find thatmany of the common arguments are incom-plete or not supported by evidence. Forexample, I’ve found no correlation betweenethnic war and rape. Additionally, given acivil war has already started, variation in gen-der inequality does not explain variation inwartime rape.

State and non-state armedgroups that recruit by force . . .

use rape to create unit cohesion.

So what does cause rape in wartime? Theanswer lies in the armed groups themselves.Drawing on both a cross-national dataset and fieldwork in three post-conflict coun-tries, I’ve found evidence that the recruitment

QOne of your primary areas of research isthe practice of wartime rape, which has

been getting increasing attention recently.Why is this issue in the spotlight now?

Wartime rape—and other forms of sexualviolence—have received enormous attentionin recent years. Since 2008, there have beenfour major Security Council Resolutionsrelating to wartime sexual violence. Cur-rently, there are a number of prominent inter-national campaigns, including one led by theNobel Women’s Initiative, to prevent wartimesexual violence.

We know more details aboutwartime violence . . . and,increasingly, in real time.

The issue is clearly experiencing a “policymoment,” although the problem of wartimerape is an old one, and scholars and humanrights advocates have been researching thisissue for years. The issue is in the spotlightnow because of the culmination of combinedefforts of activists, practitioners, andresearchers, and an increased interest moregenerally in issues affecting women. Theresearch community is also much better atdetecting and reporting incidents of sexualviolence than in the past, so we know moredetails about wartime violence than we usedto—and increasingly, in real time.

Dara Kay Cohen is an assistant professor of public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and a core faculty member ofthe International Security Program at the Belfer Center. Her current research examines variations in the use of sexualviolence during recent conflicts and draws from fieldwork in Sierra Leone, East Timor, and El Salvador, where she inter-viewed more than 200 ex-combatants and noncombatants. Cohen received her PhD in political science from StanfordUniversity and her AB from Brown University. An article on the causes of wartime rape is forthcoming in the AmericanPolitical Science Review, and she recently co-authored a policy report for the United States Institute of Peacetitled “Wartime Sexual Violence: Misconceptions, Implications, and Ways Forward.”

Q&ADara Kay Cohen

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Fieldwork on Foot: Dara Kay Cohen wades a river toreach her interview location in the Bonthe District inthe Southern Province of Sierra Leone.

COURTESY O

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ARA KAY C

OHEN

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In the complex world of the United Statesgovernment, it’s rare for a lone WhiteHouse official to oversee a real change indirection on a major policy issue.Gary Samore not only helped reshape U.S.

policy on one issue, he did so with twoimmense national security challenges duringhis four years as President Obama’s Coordi-nator for Weapons of Mass DestructionCounter-Terrorism and Arms Control.First, Samore worked with the President

and his administration to make nuclear ter-rorism a central policy concern at the leader-ship level—to the extent that Obamaconvened a global summit of nearly 50 worldleaders on the issue in Washington, D.C. inApril 2010, the only single-issue summit dur-ing the president’s first term. A follow-upsummit took place in 2012 in Seoul, SouthKorea, with another planned for 2014 in TheHague, Netherlands.Then Samore played a key role in negotiat-

ing a rigorous new nuclear weapons treatywith Russia, cutting deployed strategicnuclear warheads by a third and—perhapseven more important, in Samore’s view—cre-ating an ambitious new weapons inspectionsystem through the New START Arms Con-trol Treaty. Those were signal achievements in a term

that saw intense focus on nuclear securityissues and WMD threats, not least combatingIran’s nuclear ambitions and confrontingNorth Korea’s weapons program.

Gary Samore has come home—to Harvard, to Boston,

and to research.

In February, Samore left the administra-tion to become executive director for researchin the Belfer Center. That brings the Brook-line, Mass., native full circle in several respects.He returns to the Belfer Center, where he wasan International Security Program fellow in

1980–81; and he returns to Harvard, where heearned his master’s degree in 1978 and hisPhD in 1984.It also marks a return for Samore to the

halls of academia and research. Between earlierstints in the State Department and NationalSecurity Council, Samore held senior positionsat the Council on Foreign Relations, theMacArthur Foundation, and the InternationalInstitute for Strategic Studies in London.Whether in government or at a think tank,

Samore has spent his entire career working tomake the world safer from nuclear harm bycombating nuclear proliferation. And fromearly on, he looked beyond the threat of theU.S.-Soviet showdown of the Cold War, evenif still quite hot while he was a Belfer Centerfellow. His earliest days in research whettedhis appetite for that high-stakes nuclear pol-icy work. After earning his doctoral degree atHarvard (with a dissertation on Saudi Ara-bia’s royal family politics), Samore plungedinto highly classified work at the LawrenceLivermore National Laboratory in Berkeley,working with nuclear scientists to assessnuclear programs in the Middle East andSouth Asia. He joined the State Department in 1987

and spent the next 17 years in governmentpositions of growing responsibility, dealingwith issues including the nuclear showdownbetween India and Pakistan, Iraq’s nuclearprogram before and after the first Gulf War,and the emerging North Korean threat. Asdeputy to Ambassador-at-large Robert Gal-lucci, he was responsible for negotiatingmany aspects of the 1994 U.S.-DPRK AgreedFramework.

“The NSC is supposed to be thebrain of the U.S. government.”

In 1995, Samore moved to the NationalSecurity Council, a very different creaturefrom the vast State Department.“The NSC is supposed to be the brain of

the U.S. government, to coordinate all themuscles at State, the Pentagon, and the CIA,”Samore said. “The strength of the NSC is thatit is a very small, very flat bureaucratic struc-ture. The NSC is more satisfying in that youhave much more impact on key policies,”Samore said. “On issues of war and peace, youget more access to the principals.”Samore’s previous position in the Clinton

administration was senior director forcounter-proliferation. The position he heldduring the Obama administration was newlycreated, with broader reach over terrorism

SPOTLIGHTMeet the Belfer Center’s new Executive Director for Research—and former WMD “Czar.”

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threats from WMD as well as nuclear armscontrol and weapons proliferation.Obama showed his commitment to

address nuclear terrorism by convening thenuclear summit in April 2010 with more than50 heads of state. Samore called the summit“really fun—you rarely do something entirelynew in government,” and this was indeed new.Governments set specific targets to meet

before the summit and hurried to meet them.“Summits are a forcing event. They set adeadline,” Samore said. And unlike mostsummits that deal with a wide array of sub-jects, the nuclear terrorism summit stayedfocused on a single issue.The negotiations on the U.S.-Russian arms

control treaty were very different, involvingjust two governments but confrontingextremely sensitive concerns on both sides.Cutting the numbers of warheads proved lessdifficult than getting to yes on the details ofinspections and monitoring.

“Government policy is driven bynext week’s meeting.”

Samore doesn’t see his role at the BelferCenter as directly shaping day-to-day policy.“Government policy is driven by next week’smeeting. It is very tactical, it’s not strategic,”he said. “However, centers like Belfer can pro-vide the big ideas and strategy to help directgovernment policy.”He is eager to contribute to the Belfer Cen-

ter’s extraordinary array of research initia-tives, and to helping train the next generationof policy-makers. He also hopes to stand backand take a broader look at nuclear prolifera-tion over the past decade, certainly fodder fora book. Samore is juggling lives in Cambridge and

Washington through the summer, when hisdaughter graduates from high school and hecan move north. He is a passionate tennisplayer and looks forward to having more timefor the courts.Samore marvels at the diversity among the

Center’s fellows now compared with the early1980s. “Belfer has become much more inter-national,” he said, allowing for impact farbeyond just the U.S. government. “This influ-ences the policy landscape in many countriesaround the world.”

—James F. Smith

Gary Samore

A Safe START: President Obama raises a toast to Gary Samore and his team in the Oval Officefollowing Senate ratification of the New START treatyon December 22, 2010.

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Odumosu: Seeking Improved Understanding and Use of Technology

BELFER CEFaculty, Fellows, Staff, a

8

Evelyn Krache Morris is a research fellow with the International Security Program

The first question on Evelyn Krache Morris’ mind when it comes to her research at the Belfer Center is:“Why aren’t people talking about this?”Krache Morris, who has many credits under her belt, including an MBA from Columbia University, a

master’s degree in history and international affairs from the University of Chicago, and PhD in history ofU.S. foreign relations from Georgetown University just last year, has spent her time at the Kennedy Schoolconducting a study on how the global illicit drug trade has influenced U.S. relations with Mexico.“It’s right on the United States border, there are very strong economic ties, very strong cultural ties, and

a terrible problem with the drug trafficking organizations that in some places are undermining state func-tion,” said Krache Morris. “The gangs are incredibly violent, they are targeting areas of the country thathad previously been thought safe, and have been doing considerable damage in Mexico.”Puzzled by the fact that Mexico is largely ignored in the public discourse concerning other areas like

Syria and Mali, Krache Morris has been exploring why that is and the possible ramifications for not pay-ing attention to U.S.-Mexico relations.

How government defines a problem determines how you respond to it.

“When I gave [my] presentation at the Belfer Center, the question of definition seemed to spark a lot of interest,” said Krache Morris. “Howdo you define this problem? How you define it determines a lot of how you respond to it.”“There are so many different ways to define these organizations and their consequences—for example, the idea of ‘spillover violence’ is offi-

cially undefined, so it can’t be uniformly tracked or measured,” said Krache Morris, “On a larger scale, there’s debate about what these organiza-tions should even be called—cartels? DTOs? Violent Extremist Networks? What kind of a problem is this—law enforcement? military?” A historian to her core, Krache Morris’ previous work has touched on other eras of United States history in which she sees common thematic

elements. Her dissertation at Georgetown was about the use of herbicides in the Vietnam War and she recently published an op-ed in the BostonGlobe regarding the use of militarized drones and how the administration must be more transparent in their goals. “I think the common thread is how things get defined by the government and what those definitions do . . . because at some point, the defin-

ition starts driving things—the definition becomes the independent variable.”—Stefanie Le

Krache Morris: U.S. Needs to Better Define Mexico’s Drug Crisis

Tolu Odumosu is a Science, Technology, and Public Policy Research Fellow

Tolu Odumosu wanted answers. Growing up in his native Nigeria, he was witness to ineffective and inef-ficient infrastructural systems, so while attending the University of Lagos he started asking about the

reason for this. He knew that European phone lines were reliable, that power grids in Japan were consistent,but couldn’t understand why his were not. Teachers gave him technical answers, but he knew there wasmore to it than that. He realized that engineering problems do not necessarily have engineering answers.When pressed to explain the broad goal of his work, he says that the two-way symbiotic relationship of

man and technology is fascinating, while also being misunderstood or even ignored altogether. Whetherwe are sleepwalking through a world which is being rapidly changed by our own inventions, or mischar-acterizing the relationship of research to discovery, there are fundamental problems in how humans havecome to perceive our mastery of technology.

The way humans reflect on the changes in life wrought by our tools has led topassivity when it comes to assessing the impact of technologies on man.

At the heart of Odumosu’s work is the practical application and social interactions of technologicalresearch and innovation. He believes the way humans reflect on the changes in life wrought by our tools has

led to passivity when it comes to assessing the impact of technologies on man, as well as the impact of different peoples on the same technologies.Odumosu has recently authored a paper with Science, Technology, and Public Policy Director Venkatesh Narayanamurti and Lee Vinsel on inno-

vation models, with the goal of changing the perception that scientific work of the head is superior to that of the hand. They have sought to demon-strate the damage such a view has when the government is seeking to invest in the scientific innovations of the future. Their goal is to introduce aninnovation model, dubbed “the discovery-invention cycle,” which facilitates an environment of theorists and practitioners in “deeper congress.”

—Wesley Nord

223753 BCSIA NL_S13_141980 BSCIA 3/27/13 10:08 AM Page 8

CENTER f, and Alums

9

Brazil’s Foreign Minister Looks to U.S. for Science/Technology Advice

“The challenge for Brazil at thispoint—when we have achieved ameasure of economic developmentwith the sixth largest economy inthe world, of social progress with amiddle class of more than 100million people—is really tobecome more competitive and toincorporate more scientific andtechnological content into ourindustrial production . . . and welook to the United States as apartner that can be of strategicvalue in this process.”

Future of Diplomacy FellowAntonio de Aguiar Patriota,Brazil’s minister of external rela-tions, discussed the country’seconomic development and rela-tionship with the United States ina presentation to faculty and stu-dents in February. A former

Brazilian ambassador to the U.S., Patriota is a career diplomat whoserved in Switzerland, China, and Venezuela, and worked at the UnitedNations and as adviser to the president of Brazil.

Are Drone Strikes Legal Under International Law?

“Drone strikes are becomingmore and more controver-sial around the world, notonly in the region in whichthey are used. . . . butamong some of our closeallies who are beginning toquestion whether these arelegal under internationallaw. . . . I think the Obama

administration is in a diffi-cult position right now.”

John B. Bellinger III, legaladviser to the U.S. Secretaryof State and the NationalSecurity Council during theGeorge W. Bush adminis-tration, discussed legalissues with HKS students

and faculty in February. Currently a partner at Arnold & Porter, Bellinger directed more than 170 lawyers on matters affecting U.S.

foreign relations. He has argued cases in The Hague and in U.S. federalcourts, including the Supreme Court, in litigation involving interna-tional law issues.

Europe Learns Lessons from Fiscal Crisis, Some from U.S.

“In a crisis of this magnitudeone has to act immediately,implement the toughest mea-sures right away, and communi-cate openly with the public tosustain this support. One mustpick goals that project nationalpride and increase social justice.”

Anna Diamantopoulou, aFuture of Diplomacy FisherFamily Fellow and former EUcommissioner, offered a sober-ing analysis of the origins ofEurope’s economic crisis andsketched a new narrative neces-sary to ensure European cohe-sion during a presentation atHarvard Kennedy School in latefall. She highlighted the lessonsthat Europe and her country,Greece, had learned from the crisis and pointed to new opportunitiesfor growth.Praising the U.S. for its handling of the 2007–2008 financial crisis,

Diamantopoulou pointed to the lack of a banking and fiscal union inEurope, which made addressing the effects of the crisis in 2008 partic-ularly difficult.

Understanding the Syrian Crisis

“This is a microcosm of a broaderbattle to structure the future of theMiddle East. This battle does not end with

the fall of Bashar Assad. Nor doesit end with the creation of a sys-tem or the absence of a systemthat prevails after Assad leavespower. Instead . . . we are is at thefront end of a battle that will lasta decade or more, trying to deter-mine the outcome of Syria, inorder to shape the broader out-come for the region—how revolu-tionary it is, how sectarian it is,how religious it is—which a wholediverse set of actors are trying tomove forward. This struggle, this ongoing messiness in Syria, may emergeas the new normal in the Middle East.”

Jon B. Alterman, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies,addressed a Belfer Center seminar in December on the context of theSyrian crisis.

Visiting Fellows Ponder What Works and What Fails

Growing Pains: Antonio de AguiarPatriota, Brazil’s minister of externalrelations, discusses the past, present, andfuture of Brazilian foreign policy.

Drone Legalities: John B. Bellinger III speaks to aKennedy School audience about U.S. foreignpolicy and international law.

Critical Concern: Anna Diamantopoulou,former EU commissioner, discusses Europe’sfiscal crisis.

As Syria Goes? Jon B. Alterman (right)gives his assessment of the impact ofMiddle East turbulence at a seminarhosted by Middle East Initiative facultychair and Future of Diplomacy DirectorNicholas Burns.

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Public Predictions: Thomas Kaplan, chairman and chief investment officer at the ElectrumGroup and a member of the Belfer Center’s International Council, discusses “Mining the Pastfor Profit: Applied History in Action” with Harvard professor and historian Niall Ferguson, amember of the Center’s board of directors. Kaplan, chairman of the 92nd Street Y amongother activities, is known for his capacity to predict qualitative strategic shifts that can beused to inform public policy as well as to gain a relative advantage in the private sector.

Maintaining Might: Admiral Mike Mullen, former chairman of the JointChiefs of Staff, takes part in a discussion with Center faculty and fellowsabout U.S. military policy in a time of looming budget cuts. As chairman of the JCS, Mullen was the nation’s highest-ranking military officer andserved as the principal military adviser to Presidents Bush and Obama.

10

Bipartisan Orientation: Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (right) and Harvard Distinguished Service Professor Joseph Nye (left) withCongressman-elect Joseph Kennedy III (MA) during the Institute ofPolitics’ Congressional Issues Conference for new members of Congressin December. Center faculty and senior fellows took part in offeringinformation on a range of critical issues to the new congressionalrepresentatives.

BELFER

Armenian Authority: Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan offers his views of socio-political forces shaping Armenia and how regional dynamics involving Turkey, Russia, andIran impact domestic policymaking. Prime Minister Sargsyan is well known for his staunchadvocacy of domestic economic reforms and democratic transformations inside Armenia.

Nuclear Futures? Adnan Shihab-Eldin, director-general of the Kuwait Foundation and formeracting secretary general and director of research for OPEC, discusses with faculty and fellowsissues related to “Drivers of the Nuclear Power Option in Oil Exporting Countries.” Henry Lee,director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program, moderated the Middle EastInitiative event.

Strength in Numbers:Michèle Flournoy, aBelfer Center seniorfellow and formerundersecretary ofdefense for policy,discusses “DefenseStrategy and SpendingTradeoffs” at a BelferCenter seminar. In arecent Foreign Affairsarticle, Flournoy wrotethat despite the tougheconomic times, now isnot the time for a moremodest U.S. foreignpolicy. “The UnitedStates’ ability to lead theinternational communityis still invaluable andunmatched . . . [but] . . .will require revitalizingthe American economy,the foundation of thenation’s power.”

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Revolutionary Reflections: Esraa Abdel Fattah, vice-chairman of the EgyptianDemocratic Academy, gestures during a panel discussion following a Middle EastInitiative screening of the documentary “A Whisper to a Roar,” about democracyactivists. Fattah was one of the co-founders of the April 6 Movement, a groupthat organized worker strikes in Egypt in 2008, and was a leading activist in the2011 Egyptian Revolution. “I am still optimistic, even with everything that hashappened in our country,” she said. “In Egypt, we are in the second wave ofrevolution and it is a healthy thing.”

Power, Prestige, and Politics: U.S. National Security Advisor Thomas E. Donilon (right)takes questions from the audience following a discussion with Belfer Center DirectorGraham Allison about a range of issues relating to policy and politics. FormerHarvard President Lawrence Summers introduced Donilon at the JFK Jr. Forum.Donilon discussed efforts to reestablish U.S. power and prestige and responded toquestions from the audience on topics including U.S.-Pakistan relations and regionalresponses to the conflict in Syria.

11

Global Drivers: Former Vice President Al Gore shares a light moment with theBelfer Center’s Laura Diaz Anadon, Harvard’s James McCarthy and the KennedySchool’s Iris Bohnet. At the invitation of Belfer Center Director Graham Allison,Gore joined a small group in the Center library to brainstorm challenges relatedto climate change and issues he raises in his new book The Future: Six Drivers ofGlobal Change. His six drivers are work, communications, power, demographics,biotechnology and climate change.

Innovative Leaders: President of Senegal Macky Sall greets Calestous Juma,director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Globalization Project,following President Sall’s address at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum on his mainstrategies for moving Senegal forward: building better political governance andgreater social justice and creating durable wealth and prosperity in the country. He thanked Juma for his book, The New Harvest: Agricultural Innovation in Africa.

SPEAKERS

On Origins: Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at the Freeman SpogliInstitute at Stanford and former International Security Program fellow, discusses theorigins of the modern political order during a Belfer Center seminar. In his 2011 book,The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolution, Fukuyamanotes, “In the developed world, we take the existence of government so much forgranted that we sometimes forget how difficult it was to create.”

MARTHA S

TEW

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Converging Disciplines: FormerMIT President Susan Hockfieldleads a discussion at a BelferCenter board lunch on “The21st century’s emergingtechnology story: theconvergence of biology andengineering.” Hockfield, who isthe first woman and the firstlife scientist to hold the title ofpresident of MIT (2004–2012), is currently the Marie CurieVisiting Professor at theHarvard Kennedy School and amember of the Belfer CenterBoard of Directors. Shecontinues to hold a facultyappointment at MIT as aprofessor of neuroscience.

MARTHA S

TEW

ART

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12

Erica Chenoweth (top), former Inter-national Security Program (ISP) asso-ciate, and Maria Stephen (bottom),former ISP/Intrastate Conflict Pro-gram research fellow, won the 2013Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improv-ing World Order for their book WhyCivil Resistance Works: The StrategicLogic of Nonviolent Conflict. The bookalso won the 2012 Woodrow Wilson

Foundation Award.

Martin Feldstein, a member of theCenter’s board of directors, received theSIEPR Prize for Contributions to Eco-nomic Policy from the Stanford Insti-tute for Economic Policy Research.

Feldstein is the second recipient of the biennialprize, following 2010 recipient Paul Volcker.

Trevor Findlay, Managing theAtom/International Security Programresearch fellow, was selected by UNSecretary-General Ban Ki-moon tojoin his Advisory Board on Disarma-

ment Matters. The first session of this Board tookplace in late February.

Susan Hockfield, Marie Curie VisitingProfessor at Harvard Kennedy School,was awarded the 2013 Pinnacle Awardfor lifetime achievement from GreaterBoston Chamber of Commerce. “The

Pinnacle Awards pay tribute to some of the region’smost accomplished female leaders.”

John P. Holdren, Belfer Center boardmember (on leave), received the 2012Siemens Foundation Founder’s Award.The annual award recognizes out-standing individuals for encouraging

students to engage in science, technology, engi-neering, and mathematics subjects.

Calestous Juma, professor of the prac-tice of international development, wasnamed one of the “100 Most Influen-tial Africans in 2012” by New Africanmagazine. He was credited for his

extensive and tireless work in the field of develop-ment science.

Elaine Kamarck, former lecturer inpublic policy with the Belfer Center,has moved to Brookings where she is asenior fellow in the Governance Stud-ies program and director of the Man-

agement and Leadership Initiative.

Dennis Ross, Belfer Center Interna-tional Council member, received theScholar-Statesman Award from TheWashington Institute for Near EastPolicy. The Award highlights “out-

standing leaders who exemplify the idea thatsound scholarship and a discerning knowledge ofhistory are essential to wise and effective policy inthe Middle East.”

NEWSMAKERSInternational Security • Environment and Natural R

More Belfer Alums in Public Service RAND BEERS—Under Secretary for the National Protection and Programs Directorate(NPPD), U.S. Department of Homeland Security

JENNIFER BULKELEY—Strategist at Office of the Secretary of Defense

IVO DAALDER—U.S. Ambassador to NATO

PAUL DE SA—Chief of the Office of Strategic Planning and Policy Analysis, FCC

STEVE FETTER—Assistant Director at-Large, Office of Science and Technology Policy, White House

LAURA HOLGATE—Senior Director for Weapons of Mass Destruction Terrorism and Threat Reduction, National Security Council

Serving the NationBelfer Center “graduates” occupy some of the hottest seats in government as the second Obamaadministration confronts stressful policy choices in science and technology, national security, anddomestic finances amid clashing party politics and volatile viewpoints.

John P. HoldrenAssistant to the President for Science and Technology

In his State of the Union speech, PresidentBarack Obama surprised many by discussingclimate change more openly and at greaterlength than anticipated. He said that, failingbipartisan action in Congress, he wouldaggressively pursue executive actions “toreduce pollution, prepare our communitiesfor the consequences of climate change, andspeed the transition to more sustainablesources of energy.”

John P. Holdren, director of the Office ofScience and Technology Policy and assistant tothe president for science and technology since2009, has spearheaded efforts to increaseunderstanding and insight on energy and cli-mate change issues, including the risks fromclimate disruption.Holdren, who previously led the Belfer Cen-

ter’s Science, Technology, and Public PolicyProgram, recently issued the 2013 National

Climate Assessment (NCA), a 400-page doc-ument detailing scientific observations andfindings from the past four years. Holdrenwrote that the report—which concludes thatreal, damaging effects of climate change havebegun, and both mitigation and adaptationmeasures are urgently needed—“is expectedto be used widely by public and private stake-holders who need information about climatechange in order to thrive—from farmersdeciding which crops to grow, to city plan-ners deciding the diameter of new storm sew-ers they are replacing, to electric utilities andregulators pondering how to protect thepower grid.”

Damaging effects of climatechange have begun, and both

mitigation and adaptationmeasures are urgently needed.

Holdren also issued a memo directing rele-vant government agencies to “develop plans tomake the results of federally-funded researchpublically available free of charge within 12months after original publication.” This changeaims to greatly increase the public’s access tofederally-funded research and may begin a sea-change on all science writing—an industrywhich has been stubbornly entrenched in for-profit publishing, even with the ease of accessbrought by the Internet.

Science and Tech Talk: John Holdren with PresidentObama outside the White House.

(WHITE HOUSE)

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13

Eric RosenbachDeputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Cyber Policy

l Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Diplomacy and International Politics

Securing Cyber: Eric Rosenbach, deputy assistantsecretary of defense for cyber policy and formerexecutive director for research at the Belfer Center,speaks to Brigadier General Robert Ferrell during hisvisit to Africa Command, in Stuttgart, Germany.

Ashton B. CarterDeputy Secretary of Defense

The automatic federal spending cuts broughtabout by sequestration hit the Pentagon espe-cially hard, raising concerns about its effectson the strength, resilience, and readiness of theU.S. military.

“If our employees are furloughed, I intend to give

back to the Treasury the same portion of my salary.”

Perhaps the most vocal official ahead of theMarch 1 deadline was Ashton B. Carter, theformer Belfer Center director who is No. 2 inthe Pentagon as Deputy Secretary of Defense.With the delayed confirmation of ChuckHagel as Secretary of Defense, Carter took thelead in representing the concerns of the mili-tary branches as budget cuts loomed.

Fact Finding: Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton B.Carter on tour of troops in Europe.

(DOD)

Powerful Oversight:Allison Macfarlane, chairman ofthe Nuclear Regulatory Commission and formerCenter fellow, discusses the dynamics of nuclearregulation as they relate to the March 2011 FukushimaDaiichi disaster in Japan during a Future of Energylecture sponsored by the Harvard University Center forthe Environment.

(DOD)

“Make no mistake, the troops are going tofeel this very directly. Between now and the endof the year, we will need to sharply curtail train-ing in all of the services,” Carter said in testi-mony to the Senate Appropriations Committee.“Above all, sequester will cause a spike in

program inefficiency by stretching out pro-grams and driving up unit costs. So for theforce—military, civilian, our industry—theconsequences are very direct and devastating.”

“The [sequestration] will cause a spike in inefficiency . . .

driving up unit costs.”

Carter added that the sequester will forcemost services and defense agencies to institutecivilian hiring freezes. “It is important to notethat this freeze will disproportionately affectveterans, who make up 44 percent of the DoDcivilian workforce,” he said. “Hiring freezeswill also be felt across the nation, since 86 per-cent of DoD’s civilian jobs fall outside theWashington, D.C. metro area.”Carter, on leave as a member of the Belfer

Center board, made national headlines bydeclaring he would cut his own salary by thesame amount faced by those civilians facingwork furlough: “If our employees are fur-loughed, I intend to give back to the Treasurythe same portion of my salary, and I encour-age all of us—Executive Branch and Legisla-tive Branch—to do the same.”

PreventingProliferation: InMarch, the WhiteHouse announcedthat Senior Directorfor European AffairsElizabeth (Liz)Sherwood-Randallwill fill the positionof top nuclearadvisor to PresidentObama held

previously by Gary Samore, now executive director forresearch at the Belfer Center. Sherwood-Randall, formerfounding senior advisor to the Center’s PreventiveDefense Project, will also coordinate defense policy.

Elizabeth Sherwood-RandallCoordinator for Defense Policy, Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction,and Arms Control

BONNIE JENKINS—Coordinator for Threat Reductions Programs (Ambassador)

JAMES N. MILLER—Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

DAN PONEMAN—Deputy Secretary of Energy

JAMES A. SCHEAR—Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Partnership Strategy and Stability Operations

MATTHEW SHARP—U.S. State Department Office of Multilateral Nuclear and SecurityAffairs, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation

MARIA STEPHAN—Lead Foreign Affairs Officer, U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations

Allison MacfarlaneChairman, Nuclear Regulatory Commission

On these pages, we feature Belfer Center alums John P. Holdren and Ashton B. Carter and theirefforts on issues of special concern to the Center: climate change/energy policy and national secu-rity. Other Center “graduates” serving the nation also are noted here.

223753 BCSIA NL_S13_141980 BSCIA 3/27/13 2:52 PM Page 13

On Saudi Arabia: Its People, Past,Religion, Fault Lines— and FutureBy Karen Elliott House, Senior Fellow, BelferCenter for Science & International Affairs

Random House (2012)

With extraordinary access toSaudis—from key religiousleaders and dissident imamsto women at university andimpoverished widows, fromgovernment officials andpolitical dissidents to youngsuccessful Saudis and thosewho chose the path of ter-

rorism—Karen Elliott House argues that mostSaudis do not want democracy but seekchange nevertheless; they want a governmentthat provides basic services without subjectingcitizens to the indignity of begging princes forhandouts; a government less corrupt andmore transparent in how it spends hundredsof billions of annual oil revenue; a kingdomruled by law, not royal whim.

“. . . [E]loquent and timely. . . . Presenting these issues in a

readable yet serious book . . . she should be commended for it.”

“. . . House’s depiction of Saudi Arabia—itspeople, its politics, and most of all its contra-dictions—is eloquent and timely. The dilem-mas that Saudi Arabia is facing will not soonbe resolved. . . . Presenting these issues in areadable yet serious book is a rare feat indeed,and she should be commended for it.”

—The New Republic

Captive Audience: The Telecom Industry and Monopoly Power in the New Gilded AgeBy Susan Crawford, Former Faculty Affiliate,Information and CommunicationsTechnology and Public Policy Project

Yale University Press (January 2013)

This important book by lead-ing telecommunications pol-icy expert Susan Crawfordexplores why Americans arenow paying much more butgetting much less when itcomes to high-speed Internetaccess. Using the 2011

merger between Comcast and NBC Universalas a lens, Crawford examines how we have cre-ated the biggest monopoly since the breakup

of Standard Oil a century ago. In the clearestterms, this book explores how telecommuni-cations monopolies have affected the dailylives of consumers and America’s global eco-nomic standing.

“Crawford’s book is the most important vol-ume to be released in the last few years thatdescribes the sad . . . state of the U.S. telecom-munications market.”

—Time

Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’sInsights on China, the United States, andthe WorldBy Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Centerfor Science & International Affairs; RobertD. Blackwill, International Council Member,Belfer Center for Science & InternationalAffairs, with Ali Wyne, Associate, BelferCenter for Science & International Affairs

Belfer Center Studies in InternationalSecurity

MIT Press (February 2013)

When Lee Kuan Yew speaks,presidents, prime ministers,diplomats, and CEOs listen.Lee, the founding father ofmodern Singapore and itsprime minister from 1959 to1990, has honed his wisdom

during more than fifty years on the worldstage. Almost single-handedly responsible fortransforming Singapore into a Western-styleeconomic success, he offers a unique perspec-tive on the geopolitics of East and West. Thisbook gathers key insights from interviews,speeches, and Lee’s voluminous publishedwritings and presents them in an engagingquestion and answer format.

“This book helps expose, and explain,Beijing’s hardball mind-set.”

Lee offers his assessment of China’s future,asserting, among other things, that “China willwant to share this century as co-equals withthe U.S.” He affirms the United States’ positionas the world’s sole superpower but expressesdismay at the vagaries of its political system.He offers strategic advice for dealing withChina and goes on to discuss India’s future,Islamic terrorism, economic growth, geopoli-tics and globalization, and democracy. Leedoes not pull his punches, offering his unvar-nished opinions on multiculturalism, the wel-fare state, education, and the free market.

HOT OFF THE PRESSES

“. . . [T]he book, and the adaptation here of theChina chapter, reveal, Lee is as sharp, directand prescient as ever. . . . [It] helps expose, andexplain, Beijing’s hardball mind-set.”

—Zoher Abdoolcarim, Time magazine, Asia Edition

The Coming Prosperity: HowEntrepreneurs Are Transforming the Global Economy By Philip E. Auerswald, Associate, Science,Technology, and Public Policy Program

Oxford University Press (2012)

In The Coming Prosperity,Philip E. Auerswald arguesthat it is time to overcomethe outdated narratives offear that dominate publicdiscourse and to grasp thepowerful momentum ofprogress. Acknowledging the

gravity of today’s greatest global challenges—like climate change, water scarcity, and rapidurbanization—Auerswald emphasizes thatthe choices we make today will determine theextent and reach of the coming prosperity. Tomake the most of this epochal transition, hewrites, the key is entrepreneurship. Thebook’s deft analysis of economic trends isenlivened by stories of entrepreneurs makingan outsize difference in their communitiesand the world.

Economics of Climate Change andEnvironmental Policy: Selected Papers ofRobert N. Stavins, 2000–2011By Robert N. Stavins, Director, HarvardProject on Climate Agreements

Edward Elgar (January 2013)

Robert N. Stavins has beenone of the most influentialvoices in environmentaleconomics and policy overthe past two decades. The 26essays in this book, writtenby Professor Stavins and hisco-authors over the period

2000–2011, are collected here for the firsttime. Students, scholars, practitioners andpolicymakers will find this volume a valuableand very useful addition to their collection.

14

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP

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Vol. 37 No. 3Winter 2012/13

Don’t Come Home, America: The Case against Retrenchment Stephen G. Brooks, G. John Ikenberry, William C. Wohlforth

Challenging the conventional wisdom that it is time for retrench-ment, a new assessment recommends that the United States con-tinue to pursue a strategy of global leadership. A systematic analysisshows that advocates of retrenchment tend to overestimate the costsand underestimate the benefits of deep engagement. Rather thanreining in its global security commitments and limiting its efforts topromote a liberal international order, the United States should con-tinue to maintain a strong presence abroad.

Is a Nuclear Deal with Iran Possible? An Analytical Frameworkfor the Iran Nuclear Negotiations James K. Sebenius, Michael K. Singh

Applying a “negotiation analytic” framework to the Iran nuclearnegotiations could help to determine if and how a deal could bestruck. Given mainstream assumptions about Iran’s interests, how-ever, it appears that currently no such deal is possible through nego-tiation alone. The United States should thus work to open a zone ofpossible agreement, or ZOPA, by relentlessly worsening Iran’s no-deal options while enhancing the value of a deal. If a ZOPA can becreated, then sophisticated negotiation will be the key to reaching aworthwhile agreement.

Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation: Examining theLinkage Argument Jeffrey W. Knopf

Commentators have much debated whether there is a link betweennuclear disarmament and the health of the nuclear nonproliferationregime, but there has been little research to support either side of thisdebate. A new analysis suggests that a demonstrated commitment tonuclear disarmament does in fact tend to enhance support for non-proliferation. Given the multitude of factors that affect state decision-making, however, progress on disarmament will not by itself addressall the challenges to making the nonproliferation regime effective.

The Long and Short of It: Cognitive Constraints on Leaders’Assessments of “Postwar” Iraq Aaron Rapport

Why was the George W. Bush administration’s assessment of thechallenges posed by “postwar” Iraq so wide of the mark? Construallevel theory, a psychological theory that describes how people men-tally represent distant future actions, may be part of the explanation.Individuals tend to place more value on the desirability of actionsthat come at the end of a sequence of events relative to the feasibil-ity of those actions. Decision makers are therefore more likely tounderestimate the risks of—and thus under-prepare for—eventsthat will occur in the distant future. Recognizing this tendency couldhelp prevent such miscalculations in the future.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticatedanalyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations.The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by theMIT Press. Questions may be directed to IS@Harvard.edu.

Compiled by International Security staff.

Center Expands Reach Through Social Media

With today’s ever more digital methods of communication, it is essential that the Belfer Cen-ter exploit the vast and growing array of online platforms that enable us to cut through

the noise and get our messages across. The digital communication tools employed by the Belfer Center now extend far beyond just

our website, www.belfercenter.org. Almost a year after becoming the Belfer Center’s digital communications manager, I’d like

to share some of the expanded online tools we have established, and more importantly, how youcan join in and get involved with the Center’s many conversations. These tools offer a range ofways to stay in touch with our research, op-eds, events, and multimedia.

Facebook The Belfer Center’s Facebook page (Face-book.com/HKS.BelferCenter) is a useful go-tofor a roundup of news, media, events, andresearch coming from the Center. Throughoutthe day, several fresh posts are published, all ofwhich are open to your comments and feed-back so you can let us know what you like andoffer your opinions.

YouTubeAre you sometimes unable to attend events in-person at the Belfer Center? Then check outour YouTube channel, YouTube.com/Belfer-Center, which features a steady stream ofinformative videos and video podcasts ofnotable interviews and high-profile events. Atthis time, our YouTube channel has more than100 videos and podcasts, 4,650+ subscribers,and 54,000 total views and growing!

TwitterWith more than 4,300 followers, @Belfer-Center has drastically increased its Twitterreach. On an average day we tweet up to half adozen times, depending on what’s new.

Lee Kuan Yew OnlineTo build an online presence for the new bookon Lee Kuan Yew by Center Director GrahamAllison and Robert D. Blackwill with AliWyne, we created the official book website aswell as its Facebook and Twitter pages. Theseare moderated with the help of Andrew Facini,our new communications assistant.

E-NewslettersEmail is now considered the #1 communica-tion tool. It is fitting then that the Belfer Cen-ter has grown our number of e-newssubscribers to over 35,000. In 2012, the twice-

weekly Belfer in the News went through anoverhaul to include more social media andmultimedia links. To make sure you receiveemail updates catered to your interests, go tothe “Subscribe” link, found at the top right ofeach page on the Belfer Center website (belfer-center.org/subscribe.html).

RSSWe offer several dozen RSS feeds that will giveyou tailored content based on your own inter-ests. The full list of feeds is available at belfer-center.org/RSS.html.

—Arielle Dworkin

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The Robert and Renée Belfer Center forScience and International AffairsGraham Allison, Director79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, MA 02138Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center NewsletterEditor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director, Communications, sharon_wilke@harvard.edu

James Smith, Director, Communicationsjames_smith@harvard.edu

Andrew Facini, Communications Assistantandrew_facini@harvard.edu

The Communications Office was assisted in production of thisnewsletter by Dominic Contreras, Paul Fraioli, Bryan Galcek,Krysten Hartman, Kate Hoagland, Emily Hough, StefanieLe, Susan Lynch, and Wesley Nord.

Photographs: All photos courtesy of the Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

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The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge

about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, tech-

nology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect; and (2) to prepare future generations of

leaders for these arenas.

Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center.

16

Arab Spring and the Role of Civil Society

The Middle East Initiative (MEI) welcomed its first Kuwait Foundation Visiting Scholar in2013 and supported a wide range of workshops and conferences, including a dynamic gath-

ering on Civil Society in the Arab World.Ellis Goldberg, a renowned scholar of Arab law and politics based at the University of Wash-

ington, was honored as the Initiative’s first Kuwait Foundation scholar. In residence at HarvardKennedy School for the spring 2013 semester, he is teaching a course titled, “Politics of the ArabSpring” and working closely with Harvard students and faculty. MEI’s Civil Society in the Arab World conference brought together leading academics and

practitioners from the Arab world with scholars of civil society in other regions to explore therole of associational life in democratization processes around the world. Hosted by HarvardKennedy School Professors Tony Saich, Tarek Masoud, and Hauser senior fellow StevenLawry, the workshop was funded by the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study. “One of the fascinating aspects of the discussions,” wrote MEI Senior Fellow Rami Khouri

following the event, “was whether we could accurately use a term like ‘civil society’ in the con-text of the current situation in Arab countries.” He went on to say in an Agence Global op-ed,“I do not think we can.”

—MEI

Student Alum’s Tiny Invention Has Global Applications

First responders face various dangers each day—from house fires to earthquakes, bombthreats to hostage situations. But even with advanced rescue technologies, a low-cost

option for visualizing and understanding these situations has remained elusive. And that is abig problem for those who put themselves in harm’s way.Harvard Kennedy School graduate and former Belfer Center International Global Affairs

(IGA) Student Fellow Francisco Aguilar has an answer for just that: a cheap, disposable, sturdysensor which can be tossed into dangerous unseen locations to provide instant video, audio,and even chemical or radiological sensing.Aguilar’s start-up, Bounce Imaging, is one of the fastest-growing hardware companies in

New England. Bounce Imaging’s first product has garnered early accolades, including the 2012MassChallenge Gold Winner award and being named one of Time magazine’s best inventionsof 2012.“We’re working to develop a product with a low enough cost to the end user that it is essen-

tially disposable if retrieval is too risky,” Aguilar said.Prototypes of the device will be field tested in early 2013 with several local groups, includ-

ing the Haverhill, MA, police force and the MIT police. —Andrew Facini

BELFER IN BRIEF

On Class and Faith: Assistant Professor of Public PolicyTarek Masoud at the Middle East Initiative’s CivilSociety in Arab World Conference.

Life Saver: Francisco Aguilar with his powerful sphere.

P Printed on recycled paper.

COURTESY O

F FRANCISCO A

GUILAR

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