sport sac nov 21-22, 2005 the nasa short-term prediction research and transition (sport) center...
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SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and
Transition (SPoRT) Center
Huntsville WFO Assessment of NASA Products
Chris Darden
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
WRF Assessment Results (from WFO HUN forecaster assessment period)– Completed last fall and shared with forecast staff– Results were deemed useful by forecasters in
decision making process Enhanced Mesoscale Model Training
– Add’l WRF Seminar held October 12, 2005 Expansion of Modeling Efforts
– AWIPS ingest started at WFO MOB– Also received interest from WFO MRX
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Additional LMA Case Studies Gathered– Identified approx. 9 cases to date that are of particular
interest• There are many more cases where LMA data have been
used. These cases represent a cross-section of various storm types, thermodynamic, and kinematic regimes
22 LMA Surveys were completed in FY ’05– Significant jump in surveys from the previous year
In many cases, the forecasters found the LMA data provided add’l confidence in the Warning Decision Process– Either potentially increasing lead times or decreasing
FARs– A couple of examples will be shown later
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
A few comments from the LMA Surveys and general correspondence/emails…– “When I did look at the LMA data before issuing a warning, I did
feel more confident in issuing the warning. I like the LMA data! If this data IS also incorporated into SCAN probably more forecasters here will routinely use this data.” Henry S. - OHX
– “LMA helped with "confidence" about warnings.” – “This (LMA) allowed us additional lead time (10-15 minutes) to
issue/update Significant Weather Alerts for the affected county.”– “All three warnings were verified with no missed events that we
know of. The LMA data was utilized throughout the event by the warning forecaster on duty.”
– “In particular, there were cells in Shelby and Jefferson counties that showed nice jumps in advance of severe wx occurrences.”
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
Collaborative efforts have been well represented at professional conferences and workshops
Specifically, NWS Presentations Include…– Four papers/presentations at 2005 AMS
• Four more planned for 2006 AMS
– Oral Presentation at Spring ’05 SECAPS– Southern Thunder, DFW
Formal Visitview Teletraining materials were prepared and presented to NWS SR forecasters (Feb. ’05) on Total Lightning Applications– Material also part of the office severe weather training
plan
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
Expansion of NASA satellite products at NWS field offices– Delivery of MODIS and AMSR-E datasets into WFO
MFL, MOB, and SMG– Feedback from coastal offices quite positive (more
about that later) Continued utilization of high spatial resolution NASA
satellite data in support of WFO operations– Forecasters have noted that the increased spatial
resolution of the MODIS datasets has allowed for enhanced customer support/forecasts for mesoscale phenomenon such as fires, valley fog, etc.
• Will show a few examples…
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments
Inclusion of Convective Initiation Products into AWIPS– Initial training session completed Spring ’05– Dry run of “data ingest” during the summer with add’l
tweaking– Plans for “operational rollout” for the Spring ’06
convective season– WFO MRX also interested in CI Products
Access to dual-polarimetric ARMOR data (since Spring ’05) has provided add’l avenues for collaboration and research activities.
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Now…Let’s Share a Few Success Stories
Since early May, WFO MFL has been receiving MODIS and AMSR-E products
This brings the total number of WFOs receiving some form of NASA developed or derived products to 7.
During a recent event of very high impact (Hurricane Wilma), these datasets were quite helpful in the decision making process for the local forecast office.
However, even during more benign regimes, these datasets are quite useful in the data sparse regions adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico.
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
“…in high wind events tipping buckets don’t always give you the true sense of how much is really raining.”
“…MODIS data we have found it to be very useful in giving us a better sense of how extensive the cloud cover is at night, detecting low level clouds which is critical for aviation forecasting operations…detecting cloud streets and subtle convergent lines during day time with the high res visible” Pablo Santos, SOO
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
“Here's an example from yesterday (the 7th) of how we can use the 88D and 3.9u IR imagery to sense fires during the fire weather season.”
Andy Kula, WFO HUN
Note: The IR temp was only 27C from GOES (not shown) but showed up much better from MODIS.
Location of Fire
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
High resolution data quite useful to assess existing soil moisture
MODIS SSTs provide much more detailed information for coastal office
Coastal offices can utilize this detailed information for ingest into GFE for water temps and other smart tools and procedures
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Local Modeling
Why is it important?– Provides our forecasters with much needed
experience with the WRF model– Provides an alternative mesoscale solution to
the NAM (as potential input into GFE)– NCEP WRF currently only run once per day
• Lack of continuity not desirable • Forecasters not able to “get a handle” on how the
model is doing• Not available in AWIPS
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
00 UTC August 4, 2005
NAM WRF
24h forecast: 3h accumulated precipitation
Composite radar reflectivity
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
12 UTC August 25, 2005
NAMWRF
36h forecast: 3h accumulated precipitation
Composite radar reflectivity
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Lightning Initiatives
Utilization of LMA Source Density Fields for Warning Decision Making
Utilization of LMA for “first strike” forecasting
Development of Lightning Threat Index for Emergency Managers
Correlate LMA fields with CI work to improve convective “nowcasting” and TAFs
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Lightning Case Study #1
October 18, 2004 Rotating storm near edges of radar coverage LMA provided forecaster extra confidence in
tornado warning
LMA Source Rates Versus Time
0
50
100
150
200
Time (UTC)
Sou
rce
Rat
es
LMA (2 min)
F1
Jump
10/18/04
12 min
Sou
rce
Den
sity
LMA Source Density vs. Time
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Radar Coverage
KHTX
KGWX
0.5 Elevation HeightsFROM KHTX 10889 ft MSLFROM KGWX 7559 ft MSL
o
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
0.5 º Refl
1.5 º SRM
LMA Source Density
2234 UTC
Developing Mesocyclone/Ho
ok
Minimal Electrical Activity
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
0.5 º Refl
2240 UTC
LMA Source Density
Persistent Couplet
Lightning Jump
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
2244 UTC
Strengthening Couplet
Slight decrease in source count
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
October 18, 2004 Case
0.5 º SRM
1.5 º SRM
0.5 º Refl
LMA Source Density
2250 UTC
Minutes before tornado
touchdown
Continued decrease in sources
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Lightning Case Study #2 November 15, 2005 Rotating storm again near edges of radar
coverage LMA provided forecaster extra confidence
in tornado warning
LMA Source Rates Versus Time
0102030405060
Time (UTC)
Sourc
e R
ate
s
LMA (2 min)
F0 1/2”
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
November 15, 2005 Case
0213 UTC
0.5 º SRM
LMA Source Density
0.5 º Refl
0.9 º Refl
Minimal Electrical Activity
Broad Rotational Couplet
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
November 15, 2005 Case
0217 UTC
Some Increase in Rotation and IC Rates
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
November 15, 2005 Case
0221 UTC
Lightning Jump and Tightening of Couplet
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
November 15, 2005 Case
0226 UTC
Decrease in IC Sources Rates
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
November 15, 2005 Case
0230 UTC
Time of Tornado Touchdown
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Can LMA Data Provide CG Lead Time?
Some Results from NSSL Experiments 20-25% within one min., 80% within 8
mins.
Courtesy Don MacGorman (STEPS Experiment)
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
LMA Providing Lead Time for First CGs
Developing Convection
No CGs reported
10-20 LMA sources
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
First CGs Reported 5 Minutes Later
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Team up with Convective Initiation
Dr. Mecikalski at UAH Use in conjunction with LMA to highlight
threat areas Illustrates possible thunderstorm
development next 0-2 hours Provide enhanced nowcasting information
and expanded support to local partners and customers
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 kkoooooooookkkkkkkkkkk
Satellite-Lightning Relationships• Current Work: Develop relationships between IR TB/TB and lightning source counts/flash densities toward nowcasting (0-2 hr) future lightning occurrence* Supported by the NASA New Investigator Program Award #:NAG5-12536
2047 UTC
2147 UTC
North Alabama LMA Lightning Source Counts
2040-2050 UTC
2140-2150 UTC
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
End Result Provide a decision
support tool to local emergency managers
Would include some type of threat index or probability of lightning– Based on LMA/NLDN
output, cell tracking information, and hopefully 0-3 CI information
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Summary and Future Plans
WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year….– Finalize and deliver a Lightning Threat Index/Product
(in some form) to the emergency management community
– Begin utilizing ADAS in operations for analysis and as initialization/verification input into GFE.
– Another Lightning Teletraining Session…– A recorded version of the Visitview files for audio
playback– Develop a clearer picture of “where we’re going” with
the local/mesoscale modeling program• Local modeling is EXTREMELY important to the WFO, and
we want this relationship to continue in some capacity!
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Summary and Future Plans
WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year….– Solidify contact points at WFO BMX and OHX.– Take FAM trips if necessary/requested.– Integrate the CI products into our aviation and short
term forecast “framework”• Ensure adequate staff training and familiarization
– Continue to synthesize dual-polarimetric (ARMOR) data and other near-storm environment datasets (MIPS) with NASA products/datasets to enhance short term forecasts and warnings
• NWS SCEP student (and UAH master’s student) currently working on such a cross-cutting thesis
– Continue to gather/identify LMA cases of interest and pursue partnership with FL/NSSL Lightning Proposal
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Summary and Future Plans
Continue to Gather LMA Case Studies– Goal is to have one extensive case study
(May 6, 2003) complete and delivered to all participating offices this year
– Need to identify available resources to conduct add’l thorough studies/event reviews for verification and publication
• WFO time limited in this area
– Perhaps a fully funded graduate student?
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Summary and Future Plans
A Bigger Picture Idea….– Can’t take credit for this one. Our MIC Mike
Coyne came up with the idea originally.– Start a “Special Topics” course in the UAH
ATS program which would essentially be a formal volunteer program with the NWS
– One of the tasks of the students participating might be assisting with the “heavy lifting” necessary for case studies, reviews, verification, etc.
SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005
Questions or Comments?