SponsorSponsorProblemProblem

AssessAssessRiskRisk

SolutionSolutionStrategyStrategy

Measures ofMeasures ofMerit (MoM)Merit (MoM)

Human &Human &OrganisationalOrganisational

IssuesIssues

ScenariosScenarios

MethodsMethods& Tools& Tools

DataDataProductsProducts

3

6

4

57

10

8

911

ProblemProblemFormulationFormulation

Prepare forSuccess

NATO Code of Best Practice (COBP)for C2 Assessment

Risk and UncertaintyChapter 10

David S. AlbertsOffice of the Assistant Secretary of Defense

for Networks and Information Integration (OASD/NI2)

2

CO B

P Risk and Uncertainty

SponsorSponsorProblemProblem

AssessAssessRiskRisk

ProblemProblemFormulationFormulation

SolutionSolutionStrategyStrategy

Measures ofMeasures ofMerit (Merit (MoMMoM))

Human &Human &OrganizationalOrganizational

IssuesIssues

ScenariosScenarios

ModelsMethods& Tools& Tools

DataDataProductsProducts

3

6

4

57

10

8

911

Prepare forSuccess

3

CO B

P Agenda

• Definitions of Risk and Uncertainty

• Types of Risks and Uncertainties

• Dealing with Risk and Uncertainty

4

CO B

P Definitions

• Risk

– Possibility of suffering a loss- Actual- Opportunity

• Uncertainty

– Inability to determine - Value of a variable- A future state- Probability

– Unknowns

All risks involve uncertainties

5

CO B

P Types of Risks and Uncertainties

• Assessment– Related to the conduct of the assessment

• Decision or Operational– Related to taking decision(s) or action(s) that the

assessment is meant to inform

Not all risks and/or uncertainties can be eliminated

6

CO B

PExamples of Uncertainties in C2

Assessments

• The “right” question• Assumptions• Appropriate set of scenarios• Sources of data• Correctness of data • Limits of models and simulations• Appropriate solution approaches• Stakeholder perceptions and predispositions• Schedule and cost• And lots more………………..

7

CO B

P C2 and Decisionmaking

• Decisionmaking is at the heart of C2– Individual, team, organizational, adversarial, etc.

• We lack an adequate understanding of decisionmaking and related processes– Perceptions– Styles– Cultural influences– Relationships to information quality and misinformation

• These factors are inadequately represented in M&S tools

Ignoring these only increases risks and/or uncertainties

8

CO B

P Assessment Risks and Uncertainties

• Assessments should be judged by their ability to inform: that is by reduction in risk and uncertainty– Identifying key considerations– Fact finding– Analysis

• Hence, the major assessment risk is failing to do so: a failure to inform– Failure to deliver the assessment in a timely manner– Missing key considerations– Inadequate fact finding– Poor or incomplete analysis– Failure to properly communicate findings and conclusions

9

CO B

PDecision/Action Risks and

Uncertainties

• Decision/Actions are attended by risks associated with– Fog and friction of war (and operations other than war)– Adversary actions or reactions– Environment (including other parties)– Unintended consequences

• Hence, major decision/action risk include – Misunderstanding of situation (including command intent)– Failure to consider full range of options– Failure to understand the full range of (cascading) effects

associated with various options– Failure to make a decision / take an action at the appropriate

time

10

CO B

P Dealing with Risks and Uncertainties

• Reducing Uncertainties– Identify and treat uncertainties explicitly – Focus on the most consequential of the uncertainties– Seek to be informed from multiple sources– Perform sensitivity analyses

• Mitigating Risks– Identify and treat risks explicitly– Scrub assumptions– Following the COBP will help reduce risks

• Risk analyses• Risk register

– Develop contingencies– Develop agility– Contingency planning

Communicating risks and uncertainties is essential