spirituality in the pub: peak oil

Spirituality in the PubPeak Oil 12 May 2008

by Dr Chris Riedy

THINK.CHANGE.DO

INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES

12 May 2008 Spirituality in the Pub: Peak Oil 2

Peak OilIntroduction

> A very brief history of oil> Its importance to modern

civilisation> What is peak oil?> The consequences> Some thoughts on the

spiritual dimension> What can we do?


Peak OilA very brief history of oil

> Formation– Buried plants and marine

organisms– Subjected to temperature

and pressure– Mostly 90-150 million years

ago in period of global warming

> Oil pits known near Babylon 4,000 years ago

> Bamboo oil wells in China, 4th Century

> 1854 – distillation> 1861 – first refinery (in Russia)


Peak OilOil reliance

> In 2005– Oil supplied 35% of the

world’s energy– Has declined from 46% in

1973 (in favour of natural gas and nuclear)

> Uses– Transport (60%)– Industrial use (energy)– Chemical feedstock

(plastics)– Agriculture (fertilisers)

> Oil is the blood of modern civilisation

“Oil is our God. I dont care if someone says they worship Jesus, Buddha, Allah, whoever…they actually worship petroleum”

~ Mathew David Savinar, Lawyer and Founder of Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

“America is addicted to oil”

~ George W Bush


Peak OilThe problem

> The problem is simple– Oil is a finite resource on

human timescales– It will run out

> But the problems start before it runs out, when production peaks

> Demand cannot exceed supply, but global demand is continuing to rise

> The result: rising oil prices and/or shortages

Source: Association for Study of Peak Oil


Peak OilThe problem (continued)

> According to ASPO– Conventional oil production peaked in 2005– With non-conventional sources included, peak was in 2007

> IEA– Continued growth in production through to at least 2012– Significant tightening of the market– Evidence for imminent peak is inconclusive– Above ground factors are more important at present


Peak OilConsequences

> Rising oil prices> Will this trigger

investment in sources that are not currently economic (e.g. oil shale)?

> Alternatives (e.g. biofuels)?

> Will it be a peak or a plateau?

> Nobody knows for sure


Peak OilConsequences (continued)

> At one extreme, a Mad Max future where wars are fought over increasingly scarce oil and civilisation breaks down– Sharp peak and decline– Interactions with climate change and

other peaks> At the other extreme, a smooth economic

transition triggered by higher prices– Long plateau– Investors able to identify and develop

suitable alternatives


Peak OilA likely scenario

> The peak is more like a plateau> There is an opportunity to develop alternatives but

– none are as cheap as oil has been– some worsen climate change– new investment can’t keep pace with growing global energy

demand> There are no easy alternatives for some uses of oil (plastics?)> The cost of food and transport increases, with inflationary effects

throughout the economy and lifestyle impacts> Combination of peak oil and climate change leads to global economic

crisis> Countries with oil reserves become even more powerful global players> How bad it gets depends on how we respond now and in the future


Peak OilThe spiritual dimension

> Ethical/moral imperative– Western civilisation exploited oil

to raise standard of living– Impacts will be inequitable

• Developing countries• Vulnerable households

– Prevention of suffering> Conditions for human development

and spiritual growth will be stifled> Turning away from society

(survivalists)


Peak OilWhat can we do?

> Action now can ease the pain substantially> End the fossil fuel addiction

– Strong support for public transport infrastructure– Strong support for renewable and alternative fuels

• Natural gas• Biofuels• Hydrogen economy

– Sustainable, organic farming– Renewable materials (closed loop industrial cycles)


H2PIA – An alternative future?

Danish concept for World’s First Hydrogen City

See www.h2pia.com

spirituality in the pub: peak oil

Business