species distribution modeling model distributions of plants & animals identify centers of...
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Species Distribution Modeling
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•Model distributions of plants & animals
•Identify centers of endemism
•Identify potential hidden areas of endemism
Focal Taxa: Species Endemic to Project Area
Taxonomic Groups
Group # of Species # of Records
Birds 80 2,182
Mammals 57 665
Amphibians 188 1,588
Plants ~405 ~4,000
Unreviewed Amphibian Localities
Plant Groups
Cyathaceae Passifloraceae Brunneliaceae Acanthaceae Onagraceae -
Fuchsia Fabaceae - Inga Campanulaceae
Ericaceae Loasaceae Marcgraviaceae Aquifoliaceae Chrysobalanaceae Anacardiaceae Malpighiaceae Mimosaceae- Mimosa
Environmental Data
Spatial Model
Range Prediction
Specialist Review
Species-Environment Relationship
Localities
Environmental DataSpecialist’s Knowledge
DEDUCTIVE
INDUCTIVE
Distribution Modeling
Inductive Modeling Details
WorldClim climate data Mean Diurnal Range Isothermality Precipitation of Wettest Month Precipitation of Driest Month Precipitation Seasonality
Digital Elevation Data Elevation, slope, exposure
MODIS Vegetation/Tree Cover Variables Averaged 2001-2003
Environmental Data
Sample MODIS Data
Inductive Modeling Details
Proven in three comparative studies
Tested in diverse conditions Does well with small samples Software publicly available
Maximum Entropy
Deductive Modeling Details
Elevational range Mountain range Estimated range of a population
Variables
Steps I
1. Select species
2. Identify sources of localities
3. Request data Peru/Bolivia: support digitization
4. Compile data
5. Remove duplicate records
6. Georeference localities
7. First cut QC Remove/correct obvious errors
Unreviewed Plant Data
Steps II
8. Second cut QC Specialists review localities
9. Run trial models Select final input variables
10.Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental
space
11.Run final models12.Remove overpredicted area
Versicolored Barbet, Eubucco versicolor
Steps II
Second cut QC Specialists review localities
Run trial models Select final input variables
Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental
space Run final models Remove overpredicted area
Daphne's Oldfield Mouse, Thomasomys daphne
0 100 20050Kilometers
Predicted present
Occurrence locality
Range map
Incan Shrew Opossum, Lestoros inca
0 100 20050Kilometers
Predicted present
Occurrence locality
Range map
Photo by B. Patterson
Hooded Mountain-Toucan, Andigena cucullata
Predicted present
Occurrence locality
Range map
0 50 10025Kilometers
Golden-collared Tanager, Iridosornis jelskii
Predicted present
Occurrence locality
Range map
0 100 20050Kilometers
Selva Cacique, Cacicus koepckeae
Predicted present
Occurrence locality
Range map
0 150 30075Kilometers
Centers of Endemism - Birds
0 250 500125Kilometers
Species Richness
2 - 6
7 - 12
13 - 18
19 - 26
Mammals
0 250 500125Kilometers
Species Richness
2 - 4
5 - 8
9 - 12
13 - 16
Amphibians
0 250 500125Kilometers
Species Richness
2 - 6
7 - 12
13 - 18
19 - 23
Next Step: Aggregate Data to ID Endemism Centers
Control for range size Control for collecting bias
Source: Nelson et al. 1990
Then … Predict Hidden Areas of Endemism
Modeling Endemism centers Independent environmental data layers
June workshop to define methods
CollaboratorsModelersPilar HernandezHeidi Quintana Aldo SotoCarolina Tovar
Data ReviewersCésar Aguilar Jesús CórdovaIrma FrankeSebastian HerzogDaniel LaneJohn O’NeillVictor PachecoLily RodríguezThómas Valqui+ many plant
systematists
Data ManagersLily PaniaguaMartin TimanáCarlos Zambrana
Sources of Locality Information
United States National Museum of Natural History
Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos
University of California, Berkeley, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology
University of Kansas, Museum of Natural History
University of Michigan, Museum of Zoology
University of New Mexico, Museum of Southwestern Biology
University of San Simon, Cochabamba, Bolivia
Yale Peabody Museum
The Academy of Natural Sciences American Natural History MuseumArmoniaBritish MuseumCarnegie Museum of Natural HistoryCentro de Datos para la
Conservación - PerúColección Boliviana de FaunaCopenhagan UniversityDelaware Museum of Natural HistoryField Museum of Natural HistoryFundacion Amigos de la NaturalezaLouisiana State University, Museum
of Natural ScienceNoel Kempff Mercado Natural History
Museum
Natural History Museums
Plus 5 scientists
Sources of Locality InformationHerbarium. Naturhistorisches Museum Wien. ViennaHerbarium. Pomona CollegeHerbarium. Royal Botanic Gardens, KewHerbarium. University of MichiganHerbarium. Uppsala UniversityHerbarium. Academy of Natural Sciences.Herbarium. Albrecht-von-Haller-Institut für PflanzenwissenschaftenHerbarium. California Academy of Sciences. San Francisco, California.Herbarium. Heidelberger Institut für PflanzenwissenschaftenHerbarium. Institut für Systematische Botanik. Universität ZürichHerbarium. Marie Selby Botanical GardensHerbarium. Missoouri Botanical GardenHerbarium. National Museum in PragueHerbarium. Natural History Museum of Los Angeles CountyHerbarium. Rancho Santa Ana Botanic GardenHerbarium. Royal Botanic Garden. EdinburghHerbarium. Swedish Museum of Natural HistoryHerbarium. The Natural History MuseumHerbarium. United States National ArboretumHerbarium. University of California. Los AngelesHerbarium. University of CopenhagenHerbarium. University of Texas at AustinHerbarium. V. L. Komarov Botanical InstituteHerbier National de Paris.Nationaal Herbarium NederlandUnited States National HerbariumUniversity Herbarium. University of California. BerkeleyUniversity of Aarhus Herbarium JutlandicumWilliam and Lynda Steere Herbarium. New York Botanical Garden
Albion R. Hodgdon Herbarium. University of New HampshireBailey Hortorium Herbarium, Cornell UniversityBotanical Museum. Lund, SwedenBotanischer Garten und Botanisches Museum Berlin-Dahlem.Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de la Ville de GenèveDaubeny Herbarium. University of OxfordDudley Herbarium. California Academy of SciencesField Museum of Natural HistoryFielding-Druce Herbarium. University of OxfordHarvard University HerbariaHerbario Amazonense. Univ. Nacional de la Amazónia PerúanaHerbario del Oriente Boliviano. Mus. Historia Natural Noel Kempff MercadoHerbario Nacional ColombianoHerbario Nacional de BoliviaHerbario Nacional del EcuadorHerbario Nacional Forestal Martín Cárdenas. CochabambaHerbario Nacional. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoHerbario Selva Central. Oxapampa, Perú.Herbario Vargas. Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del CuscoHerbario. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. LimaHerbario. Fundación Miguel Lillo. Tucuman, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Buenos Aires, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto de Botánica del Nordeste. Corrientes, Argentina.Herbario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Buenos AiresHerbario. Proyecto BOLFOR. Santa Cruz, BoliviaHerbario. Real Jardín Botánico. Madrid, Spain.Herbario. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. LimaHerbario. Universidad Nacional de CajamarcaHerbario. Universidad Nacional de CórdobaHerbário. Universidade de São PauloHerbarium of the University of ArizonaHerbarium Senckenbergianum FrankfurtHerbarium Truxillense. Universidad Nacional de La Libertad-Trujillo
Herbaria