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Inside This Issue

1 Highlights & Lowlights

2 Pea Markets Mostly Calm

5 Dry Bean Market Well-Supplied?

7 Not Much Excitement in the Mustard Outlook

9 Modest Gains Possible for Canaryseed

11 Special Crop Bid Sheet

12 Global Price Indications

13 CGC Special Crop Handling Statistics

14 S&Ds and Charts

Special Crops Update March 22, 2017 Volume 7, Issue 44

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Highlights & Lowlights

Peas • Indian pea prices have firmed up while Canadian values are steady. • The pace of farmer deliveries and licensed exports has

strengthened in the past few weeks. • Canadian exports were 220,000 tonnes in January, for a new Q2

record and supports a full-year record of 3.6 million tonnes. • Yellow pea production for 2017 is forecast at nearly 4.0 million

tonnes and the green crop at 500,000 tonnes.

Dry Beans • US bean inventories are more comfortable for black than pintos. • Estimates of Mexican bean yields are high but prices are firming up

during harvest, a contradictory signal. • The Brazilian first bean crop has recovered sharply from last year. • Chinese bean acreage could expand in 2017.

Mustard • Mustard exports were below average again in January, the slow

season. • Exports tend to pick up in the spring with some tentative signals of

improved European demand. • Canadian yellow and oriental mustard crops are expected to shrink

in 2017 while brown production could actually increase.

Canaryseed • Export volumes improved in January with a return of Indonesian

buying. • A seasonal bump in export demand should support bids. • Low new-crop bids will discourage acres and tighten up supplies in

2017/18.

March 22, 2017 – Special Crops Update

Pea Markets Mostly Calm

Throughout the turmoil caused by the various rumours and announcements by the Indian government, pea prices have seen a very limited response. Bids in North America have shown only slight weakness while values (for most pulses) in India have actually risen. Of course, supporting domestic pulse prices was the main reason behind the Indian government’s proposed import restrictions.

The first Indian announcement/rumour was about applying a ban on fumigation at Indian ports, while still requiring fumigation of cargoes at exporters’ ports of origin. While this issue hasn’t definitively been resolved, fresh rumours are circulating that the fumigation ban could be put off yet again, essentially allowing business as usual. Even if this isn’t resolved, the trade is already figuring out ways of working with the ban by fumigating cargoes (at least bulk shipments) at ports between Canada and India.

At the same time, the Indian government is also rumoured to be considering reviving pulse import duties. Some suggest these duties could be around 10% and could be applied by the end of March. The rationale for this approach is that it’s far more flexible for the Indian government

as it can vary duties among individual pulse crops and adjust rates as needed.

Whether import duties would end up lowering Canadian prices or raise Indian pulse prices will depend on the supply/demand balance. If supplies are comfortable (as they are now) or heavy, the 10% duty would largely come off Canadian prices and affect the bids to the farmer. But in the case of tight pea supplies, the duty would force Indian importers to pay more and would ultimately get passed on to consumers.

So far, the Indian “situation” has had very little measurable impact on Canadian pea exports. In fact, the pace of movement has actually increased since this news hit the front page. Over the past eight weeks, farmers have been delivering an average of 80,000 tonnes into the elevator system, nearly double the normal

LeftField Special Crops Update

pace for this time of year. And those deliveries are in response to exporters’ shipping programs, not simply a matter of farmers jamming peas into the elevator system.

Weekly exports from the licensed elevator system have also been strong recently, averaging 75,000 tonnes per week over the past four weeks. The year-to-date total (of licensed exports) as of week 32 is 2.36 million tonnes, exactly 500,000 tonnes more than last year and almost one million tonnes ahead of the 5-year average pace.

The complete StatsCan export data for January is now out and shows the 2016/17 pace for both the 1st and 2nd quarters were new records. The Aug-Jan total of 2.2 million tonnes means another 1.4 million is needed in the second half of 2016/17 to reach our full-year forecast of 3.6 million tonnes. Because of the record pace for the first half, that target still appears doable, even without hitting new records for the 3rd and 4th quarters.

In January, a total of 220,000 tonnes of Canadian peas were exported, but with recent changes to StatsCan’s HS product codes, the breakdown by type isn’t clear. Of the total, 122,000 tonnes went to India, with China taking 49,000 tonnes and Bangladesh a distant third at 11,000 tonnes.

We are confident China will remain a solid buyer of peas through the rest of 2016/17, but the potential to hit our full-year export forecast of 3.6 million tonnes largely depends on steady shipments continuing to India. Based on what we’re hearing so far, it appears peas are still

moving to India but new business is more tentative.

The price chart on page 2 shows steady to firmer Indian pea prices in 2017 despite heavy imports and a favourable rabi season. This suggests overall demand for peas has expanded in 2016/17, which was partly supported by India’s decision to build 2.0 million tonnes of pulse buffer stocks. Roughly three-quarters of those stocks are now in store and once they’re full, India’s import pace will likely slow down. But until then, India will continue to need pea imports.


As long as Canadian exports end up close to our target (and the 2016 crop isn’t revised higher), 2016/17 ending stocks of peas (shown above) will be quite well-balanced. The firm price environment tends to confirm this healthy supply situation. If supplies were considerably heavier than indicated “on paper”, we would have already seen that reflected by softer prices.

Two weeks ago, we bumped up our forecast of 2017 pea plantings by another 150,000 acres, which would take seeded area up to 4.5 million acres, 6% more than last year. That said, other forecasters have different ideas, including some suggestions that seeded area will actually drop this spring.

Within our 6% increase in total seeded area, we’re forecasting a 15% drop in green pea acreage while yellows would be up 10%. Based on normal abandonment and a return (lower) to 5-year average yields, yellow pea production would be just under 4.0 million tonnes, 5% less than last year. Green pea production would be right around 500,000 tonnes, 21% less than last year.

This production scenario suggests a smaller 2017 crop would end up restricting green pea export potential more than it would for yellows. Green pea supplies would be low enough that exports (including other minor types) would be limited to less than 300,000 tonnes, something

that hasn’t happened since 2002/03. Meanwhile, there would still be enough yellow peas to supply an export program over 3.0 million tonnes. Of course, if the more pessimistic acreage forecasts are right, a tighter 2017/18 supply situation would

limit exports further and provide new-crop price support.

The problem with that is we’re not as optimistic about pea exports for 2017/18 as in the current marketing year, largely because of quieter Indian demand. This sets up a potential outcome where yellow pea supplies become more burdensome while green peas are tight. If so, it would finally allow price relationships to return to the more typical situation, where greens are showing a premium over yellows.

Seasonal tendencies for both yellow and green peas are sideways until mid-May when they start heading toward the harvest bottom. With adequate supplies and steady demand this year, prices will remain mostly flat until the new-crop picture gets a little clearer. The new-crop price outlook remains fairly friendly, especially for greens, but acreage and yield unknowns are considerable.

“This production scenario suggests a smaller 2017 crop would end up restricting green pea export

potential more than it would for yellows.”


90-Day Price Probability – Pea Bids (C$/bu, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (2C or better) Under $7.50 25%

$7.50 - $8.00 40% $8.00 - $8.50 25% Over $8.50 10%

Green (2C or better) Under $8.00 20% $8.00 - $8.50 40% $8.50 - $9.00 35% Over $9.00 5%

Dry Bean Market Well-Supplied?

Dry bean markets have been very quiet for several months now, largely due to limited trading activity at this time of year. The seasonal price index for North Dakota dry bean bids suggests this sideways movement will continue for at least a few more weeks. The index shows that bids for pintos, blacks and small whites all tend to be flat through the spring months and start to turn higher in early to mid June. That’s the time when commercial inventories start to run lower and bidding becomes more active again.

The latest stocks report from North Dakota shows commercial inventories as of Dec 31. Black bean stocks of 1.07 million cwt were above last year and at the second highest level on record. Pinto bean stocks in North Dakota at 4.61 million cwt were below the average of 5.07 million cwt and closer to the lower end of the recent range. For navies, commercial stocks of 1.26 million cwt were lower than the last two years and below the average of 1.35 million cwt.

While these stocks numbers are already a little dated and only represent North Dakota (the largest producing state), they provide a few clues about possible direction for the remainder of 2016/17. Because stocks aren’t at extreme levels (either high or low), prices are more likely to follow seasonal tendencies. The more comfortable black bean supplies would suggest less of a seasonal boost heading into the summer while pintos could see a little more support from the lower inventories.

Of course, a large part of the outlook also depends on developments in other countries. In Mexico, the winter bean harvest is well underway and the early indications are pointing to a sizable production increase. Seeded area was 13% larger than last year but very much in line with the 10-year average. At about the halfway point in the harvest, yields reported by the Ag


Ministry are very positive, although Mexican yields early in the season tend to be higher than the later results. Even so, the winter bean crop could end up in the ballpark of 300,000 tonnes, nearly 100,000 tonnes more than last year. We’re still not convinced though as the optimistic production estimate is at odds with Mexican bean prices that have strengthened in recent weeks even while the harvest is ongoing. We’ll continue to monitor both the production estimates and price movements to see how this will be resolved.

Earlier in March, we indicated the Argentine 2016/17 dry bean crop was

estimated to be mostly on par with last year, including similar production for the individual classes. Forecasts of the 2017/18 acreage which has now been planted aren’t available yet. Dry bean prices in Argentina are sideways to lower after coming off the 2016 highs.

Government estimates of the Brazilian first dry bean crop, with harvest nearly complete, show a sizable increase. Seeded area was 13% higher than the very small 2015/16 crop and nearly in line with the 5-year average. Yields this year were also up, 18% more than last year and 23% above average. The result is a first bean crop of 1.38 million tonnes versus 1.03 million last year and the average of 1.12 million tonnes. The largest production increase was seen in cowpea, up nearly 150%, with carioca estimated 30% larger than last year while the black bean crop was only 10% larger than last year.

In addition, seeded area of the second bean crop is already estimated to be larger than last year as well. These larger crops set the stage for a sizable rebound in the total 2016/17 bean crop. In the past few weeks, Brazilian bean prices have firmed up slightly but are well off the highs of 2016.

One area of concern is the potential for increased plantings of dry beans in China. Because the Chinese government is deemphasizing corn production, other crops will gain acreage and that could include dry beans. Already in 2016, Chinese exports had increased to 590,000 tonnes versus 463,000 tonnes in 2015. Getting hard acreage and production estimates from China is difficult and without price signals, anecdotal reports and export data will be the main indicators of increased dry bean production in 2017.


Some modest strength will likely show up in late spring or early summer in line with seasonal tendencies, but it doesn’t look like a surge in Latin American demand will show up to boost prices beyond that. The USDA acreage report at the end of March will be a key signal for the new-crop market.

90-Day Price Probability – Dry Bean Bids (C$/cwt, Eastern Prairies) Range Probability Pinto (1C) Under $38 15%

$38 - $40 40% $40 - $42 30% Over $42 15%

Black (1C) Under $38 5% $38 - $40 15% $40 - $42 50% Over $42 30%

Navy (1C) Under $36 20% $36 - $38 40% $38 - $40 30% Over $40 10%

Not Much Excitement in the Mustard Outlook

Canadian mustard bids continue to exhibit few signs of life. We expect that even though companies are posting bids, only limited volumes are being bought and sold at this stage of the year. This fits with the seasonal pattern which tends to be quiet, heading sideways until late April when there’s a bit more strength for yellow and oriental while brown starts moving lower.

One of the reasons for the sleepy behaviour in the mustard market is that export volumes are still in the slower period of the year. And this year, export performance has mostly been below average. The latest StatsCan data from January shows only 8,300 tonnes exported, a slight improvement over December but still underwhelming. The US remains the largest customer taking just over 4,000 tonnes. Halfway through 2016/17, the pace to the US is only a couple of thousand tonnes behind the 10-year average. Exports to Europe are trailing the average by about 5,000 tonnes while Asian purchases are slightly above average.

So far, we’re not seeing many signs that demand is going to pick up significantly and revive the 2016/17 market. Even if US processors need more mustard heading into the higher consumption months, they have a larger 2016 domestic crop to fill that demand.


Some improvement is possible in terms of European demand, although the signals are a little nebulous. Mustard prices in Ukraine have strengthened recently and if they actually reflect a tighter Black Sea supply situation, it could indicate the potential for a little more European

demand shifting to Canadian mustard.

A bulk shipment of mustard typically moves to Europe through Thunder Bay around the time of the Seaway reopening. If larger volumes are needed this year, that should start to show up soon in the form of stronger bids, especially for brown and possibly yellow mustard.

We recently raised our estimate of 2017 Canadian mustard plantings a bit, now at 350,000 acres. That’s still one-third lower than last year but not exceptionally small. At this stage of the year, our production forecast for 2017/18 is based on the 5-year

average yield (of all classes combined) at 965 pounds per acre, well below last year’s performance. If so, 2017 mustard production would drop 85,000 tonnes from last year.

Of course, there will be different shifts for the various mustard classes. Based on differing price performance for the individual types, we’re forecasting the largest decline will show up in oriental mustard acreage, followed closely by yellow. Because of brown mustard’s relatively stronger bids, we’re actually forecasting a small increase in seeded area.

When we apply the 5-year average yields for each individual class along with typical abandonment, the oriental mustard crop would be 30,000 tonnes, 48% smaller than last year. Yellow mustard production would be 90,000 tonnes, 40% less than 2016 and brown mustard production would be just under 30,000 tonnes, 10% larger than last year.

Old-crop bids for all three classes of mustard won’t show much life, although brown could see an occasional bump as buyers look to fill individual sales. New-crop bids haven’t moved much either, a signal that buyers aren’t too concerned about reduced 2017 acreage. Unless there’s a production problem in western Canada, only modest gains are likely for 2017/18.


90-Day Price Probability – Mustard Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability Yellow (1C) Under $28 15%

$28 - $29 30% $29 - $30 40% Over $30 15%

Brown (1C) Under $30 10% $30 - $33 25% $33 - $36 45% Over $36 20%

Oriental (1C) Under $28 20% $28 - $29 45% $29 - $30 25% Over $30 10%

Modest Gains Possible for Canaryseed

Even though canaryseed bids haven’t shown any strength for quite some time, the latest StatsCan export data for January has a couple of optimistic signals. In January, canaryseed exports of 11,300 tonnes were above average for only the second time this year, not bad considering January is the low point of the year.

We had heard rumblings that Mexican demand was softer and that certainly showed up in the January totals, partly because of stronger purchases in December. While Mexico was still the largest single buyer in January, the larger total was due to increased purchases by Spain and Indonesia. We had been waiting for Indonesia (Canada’s third largest buyer the last two years) to return to the market after starting the year slowly. It wasn’t too much of a concern as ndonesian purchases are typically heavier in the second half of the marketing year and that same pattern may be happening in 2016/17. If so, that provides a little more positive outlook for the rest of the year.

With the seasonal export highs still ahead, our full-year export forecast of 140,000 tonnes appears quite achievable. That’s in spite of year-to-date exports of 67,000 tonnes that are trailing last year’s pace of 75,000 tonnes.

Behaviour of canaryseed bids in western Canada reflects a comfortable supply situation. Old-crop prices seem to have found a bottom right around $20 per cwt. That’s not surprising, as farmers become reluctant to let canaryseed go below that level. The small move off the lows could gain a little more yet when additional canaryseed needs to be sourced for the larger export


volumes expected in April and May. Even so, we doubt that will turn into a full-scale rally as farmers will also use the small bumps as selling opportunities.

New-crop canaryseed bids have moved higher, but we advise some caution when viewing the chart below. The limited number of bids, especially earlier this winter, made those late 2016

prices a little “patchy”. The more recent bids closer to $18 per cwt are a more accurate reflection of the overall market.

Those $18 new-crop bids won’t stir up a whole lot of interest in growing canaryseed in 2017. As a result, we recently trimmed our seeded area projection a little further to 225,000 acres, 15% less than last year. With average yields, 2017 production would drop roughly 20-25,000 tonnes and would tighten supplies somewhat. But unless the crop runs into serious trouble, it wouldn’t be enough to trigger that “windfall rally” many canaryseed growers look for.

Some moderate strength could be seen in the weeks and months ahead in old-crop canaryseed bids, but those gains will likely be local and sporadic. Not much strength is expected in new-crop bids but they should start to converge with old-crop values later in spring.

90-Day Price Probability – Canaryseed Bids (C$/cwt, Central Prairies) Range Probability 1C Under $20 20%

$20 - $22 45% $22 - $24 30% Over $24 5%

We encourage you to call or e-mail with questions or comments! ~ 204-949-1726 or [email protected] ~

This material is intended for the clients of LeftField Commodity Research. We don’t have a team of lawyers, but we simply ask that you don’t forward it or copy it without asking us. It’s our livelihood.

The fine print: We do our best to provide accurate information in this newsletter but we don’t guarantee its accuracy nor accept liability for any errors. This newsletter provides guidance but does not make specific marketing recommendations.

Last week Wkly 4 WeeksMin Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago

Peas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu#2 Yellow 238.83 321.51 289.34 7.87 7.50 7.84 0.04 8.22#2 Green 281.09 312.32 297.39 8.09 7.81 8.13 -0.03 8.13Feed 125.00 270.07 202.99 5.52 n/a 5.62 -0.10 5.69#2 Maple 514.41 551.16 532.78 14.50 11.00 14.50 0.00 15.50Lentils (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt#2 Lg Green 925.94 970.03 943.58 42.80 32.75 43.20 -0.40 52.80#2 Med Green 881.85 1102.31 992.08 45.00 30.00 45.00 0.00 49.75#2 Sm Green 881.85 925.94 911.24 41.33 32.33 42.00 -0.67 52.00#2 Fr Green 837.76 1212.54 1025.15 46.50 n/a 50.50 -4.00 50.50#2 Sm Red 485.02 551.16 516.43 23.43 23.21 23.69 -0.26 25.82Chickpeas (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtKabuli 8-9 mm 992.08 992.08 992.08 45.00 43.00 45.00 0.00 65.00Desi n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/aFlax (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buBrown 452.73 494.46 478.10 12.14 11.21 12.08 0.06 12.30Yellow 590.52 728.31 659.41 16.75 n/a 16.75 0.00 16.75Mustard (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtYellow 617.29 705.48 661.38 30.00 35.00 30.00 0.00 30.00Brown 661.38 749.57 722.01 32.75 33.33 32.75 0.00 32.00Oriental 617.29 705.48 654.03 29.67 32.00 29.67 0.00 29.67Canaryseed (C$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtCanaryseed 418.88 473.99 451.95 20.50 18.25 20.50 0.00 19.83

Last week Wkly 4 WeeksMin Max Avg Avg NC Avg Avg Chg Ago

Peas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu#2 Yellow 211.28 275.58 231.03 6.29 5.89 6.25 0.04 6.50#2 Green 220.46 233.32 227.81 6.20 6.00 6.10 0.10 6.63Feed 183.72 183.72 183.72 5.00 n/a 5.00 0.00 5.00Lentils (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtLg Green 749.57 749.57 749.57 34.00 n/a 34.00 0.00 34.00Med Green 628.32 639.34 633.83 28.75 23.50 30.17 -1.42 32.38Sm Green n/a n/a n/a n/a 23.50 33.00 n/a 37.00Pardina 551.16 595.25 569.53 25.83 n/a 25.17 0.67 25.17Red 374.79 672.41 523.60 23.75 18.00 23.75 0.00 25.75Dry Beans (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtPinto 617.29 617.29 617.29 28.00 26.20 28.00 0.00 28.13Black 617.29 661.39 643.01 29.17 25.75 29.17 0.00 29.50Navy 595.25 617.29 606.27 27.50 n/a 27.50 0.00 27.50Chickpeas (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtSm Kabuli 970.03 970.03 970.03 44.00 n/a 44.00 0.00 44.00Lg Kabuli 793.66 1036.17 874.50 39.67 n/a 39.67 0.00 39.67Flax (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buBrown 275.58 374.00 309.65 7.87 8.05 7.87 0.00 7.83Yellow n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 11.00Sunflowers (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtNuSun 275.58 324.08 295.79 13.42 14.68 13.38 0.03 13.44HO Sun 288.81 316.36 302.58 13.73 n/a 13.73 0.00 13.85Oil Birdfood 314.16 336.20 326.56 14.81 n/a 14.84 -0.03 14.94Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwt $/cwtWhite Millet 104.72 165.35 126.52 5.74 5.75 5.74 0.00 5.75Red Millet 137.79 143.30 140.54 6.38 n/a 6.38 0.00 6.25Birdseed (US$ del'd) $/t $/t $/t $/bu $/bu $/bu $/bu $/buMilo 95.66 118.10 106.33 2.70 n/a 2.67 0.03 2.74

------------------------This week------------------------

Special Crop Bid Sheet

------------------------This week------------------------

Posted bids from Western Canadian buyers

Posted bids from US Northern Plains and PNW buyers

Note: Prices shown are indications only and may not be actual traded values. All values in US$ per tonne

Type LocationThis

weekWeek Ago

4 Wks Ago

Year Ago Type Location

This week

Week Ago

4 Wks Ago

Year Ago

Peas FlaxGrower Seed

#2 Yellow Edmonton 231 227 249 373 1C Saskatoon 351 346 364 324 #1 Green Saskatoon 296 296 329 261 1C Wpg, MB 353 349 361 339 #1 Yellow Saskatoon 306 306 330 367 #1 RedWing, MN 374 374 374 344 Green N Dakota 224 228 259 304 Golden N Dakota 307 308 307 292 Yellow N Dakota 226 228 239 249 Linseed NW Europe 440 425 425 396 Dun Adelaide 243 241 254 416 Linseed Ukraine 366 359 337 380

Wholesale Linseed FOB Russia 518 518 518 518 Cdn Yellow Mumbai 359 352 358 418 Linseed Tianjin (offer) 646 661 671 621 Cdn Green Kolkatta 487 449 449 471 ProductsGreen Bogota 699 694 742 716 Meal Minn 331 331 331 209 Yellow FOB Ukraine 285 286 283 334 Meal FOB Rhine 335 335 340 333 Russian Yel Karachi - - - 409 Oil Minn, MN 1,521 1,521 1,521 1,521 Feed Netherlands 263 258 260 253 Oil Rotterdam 840 795 804 790 Feed Rouen 259 254 265 249 SunflowersYellow China port 443 447 426 443 SeedGreen China port 501 493 470 447 Oilseed Saskatoon 373 368 379 354

Lentils Oilseed Enderlin, ND 327 328 332 371 Grower Oil NuSun Kansas 304 308 301 342

Lg Grn Saskatoon 819 808 1,093 1,264 Oilseed FOB Ukraine 400 395 400 400 Sm Grn Saskatoon 730 720 1,023 1,037 Oilseed NW Europe 410 415 415 445 Red Saskatoon 368 362 453 712 Birdseed US elev 327 329 331 343 Red (Nugget) Adelaide 463 456 436 892 Confection Buenos Aires 800 800 800 900 Med Grn US Elev Avg 665 687 719 1,014 Confection FOB Russia 705 695 701 731 Red US Elev Avg 665 687 719 1,014 Products

Wholesale Meal ND/SD/MN 165 176 182 132 Lg Grn Mexico City 1,717 1,627 1,678 1,535 RBWD NuSun Oi Dakotas 1,190 1,190 1,190 1,168 Green Bogota 1,636 1,627 1,688 1,747 Oil Rotterdam 778 780 810 855 Green Mersin 1,546 1,632 1,612 1,646 Oil Ukraine 730 750 765 795 Sm Grn Spain 1,149 1,128 1,135 1,347 MustardRed (retail) Egypt 1,667 1,700 1,690 - Brown S'toon, SK 552 545 562 613 Red Mersin 719 741 709 1,230 Yellow S'toon, SK 469 462 477 919 Red Indore 657 650 636 790 Oriental S'toon, SK 473 466 481 911 Cdn Red Karachi - - - 927 Ind Yellow NW Europe 1,268 1,268 1,243 1,255

Products Ind Brown NW Europe 960 973 935 960 Split Red Mersin 988 955 1,029 1,267 White Ukraine 577 550 537 388 Football Red Mersin 921 942 1,066 1,329 White FOB Russia 746 746 746 438 Split Yellow Mersin 1,430 1,559 1,555 1,646 Yellow Chennai, India NULL NULL 736 719

Black Chennai, India NULL NULL 686 704 Chickpeas Dry BeansGrower Pinto N Dakota 617 617 617 474

9mm Kabuli Saskatoon 642 633 837 502 Black N Dakota 650 650 661 485 9mm Kabuli ID/WA 783 783 783 728 Pea Bean N Dakota 606 606 606 441 Desi Saskatoon 591 583 596 480 Grt Northern NE / CO 617 617 617 507 Desi Brisbane 655 655 640 816 Negro Mexico City 989 966 938 853

Wholesale Pinto Mexico City 1,041 1,017 987 910 7mm Kabuli Mersin 1,320 1,837 1,002 1,040 Peruano Mexico City 1,717 1,729 1,727 1,706 8mm Mersin 1,880 1,874 2,102 1,169 Black Buenos Aires 1,020 1,020 1,010 520 9mm Mersin 2,210 2,224 2,296 1,503 Lg alubia Buenos Aires 1,100 1,100 1,170 660 10mm Mersin - 2,387 2,806 1,682 Sm alubia Buenos Aires 990 990 980 500 Lg Garbanzo Mexico City 1,873 1,780 1,727 1,422 Red Buenos Aires 950 950 950 700 Sm Kabuli Spain 891 875 880 601 Carioca (8.5) Brazil 823 836 725 1,002 Chana Jaipur 756 751 792 716 Preto Extra Brazil 931 890 819 841

Round White Ethiopia 629 651 636 406 Birdseed Blackeye Colombia 1,106 1,101 1,132 1,318

Canaryseed Saskatoon 322 318 354 405 Nima Calima Colombia 1,174 1,167 1,245 2,014 Argentina 600 600 600 575 White Mersin 1,391 1,323 1,551 1,083 Spain #N/A #N/A #N/A - Romano Mersin 1,645 1,784 1,457 1,545

White Millet Dakotas 125 125 126 136 Faba (retail) Egypt 706 773 702 - Red Millet Dakotas 141 141 138 143 Faba Adelaide 177 - 185 336 Niger Seed Mumbai 966 928 1,017 1,377 Faba Rouen 220 213 218 279

CurrencyUS$/Cdn$ 0.752 0.741 0.765 0.764 US$/Tlira 0.272 0.267 0.273 0.349 US$/Euro 1.074 1.054 1.060 1.123 US$/AU$ 0.771 0.753 0.771 0.756 US$/IN Rupee 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 US$/Arg Peso 0.064 0.064 0.065 0.068

Global Price Indications

Grain Shipping Week: 32Week ending:

Flax Peas Lentils Chickpeas Canaryseed Mustard Dry BeansFarm Deliveries Current 3.4 85.0 21.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.5 Last week 8.4 92.1 30.8 1.3 3.3 0.6 0.5 Year-to-date 293.5 3032.2 1556.5 26.1 40.9 21.0 48.3 Last YTD 371.3 2144.9 1317.6 34.0 31.6 21.2 47.6

Shipments Current 8.7 92.1 29.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.3 Last week 13.5 72.3 19.7 0.3 2.5 0.4 2.2 Year-to-date 255.8 2726.7 1209.9 14.5 28.5 21.4 27.3 Last YTD 318.9 2048.6 1002.4 10.7 18.5 21.4 29.2

Exports Current 0.7 87.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 Last week 34.9 76.8 12.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 Year-to-date 202.3 2356.1 607.2 2.1 13.0 12.1 48.3 Last YTD 219.2 1856.0 566.3 3.6 24.5 12.1 47.6

Visible Stocks Primary & Proc 51.8 281.7 117.2 12.8 10.1 2.7 25.8 Terminal 22.5 66.0 30.1 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.0 In-transit 4.7 55.3 36.0 0.0 2.9 2.3 0.0 Total 79.0 403.0 183.3 12.8 13.6 6.3 25.8 Last week 179.9 439.6 169.4 12.4 10.4 4.6 26.3 Last yr total 72.2 334.1 132.7 13.3 10.1 6.6 18.7

Unfortunately, the Indian gov't has decided to stop reporting weekly imports.We will be posting monthly imports as we receive them, but data will be less timely.

Week ending: Yellow

Peas Green Peas Chana Lentils Tur

Kidney Beans Other

Current week 77,851 1,949 48,286 28,234 44,288 1,547 8,973 Last week 212,587 2,166 46,013 19,833 32,531 958 5,924 Year-to-date 1,890,996 139,416 248,160 256,610 463,811 70,629 578,419 Prior YTD 1,032,593 140,750 457,784 550,876 403,091 64,746 541,949 Full year 15/16 1,671,745 164,486 1,084,172 1,157,738 512,533 97,510 698,171Market year (Apr-Mar)

November 27, 2016

CGC Weekly Handling StatisticsIncludes only bulk movement through licensed facilities (thousand tonnes)

India Weekly Pulse Imports (tonnes)

March 12, 2017

LeftField Special Crops Update S&Ds and Charts3/22/2017

4 of 9

Source: CGC, StatsCan, NCDEX, USDA, SAF, MAFRI, Lloyd's List, MATBA, MTB, DTN, OilWorld, Commodity3 Copyright © 2016 by LeftField Commodity Research

8

18

28

38

48

58

68

Cent

s pe

r pou

nd

Chickpea Prices - Saskatchewan

Desi Kabuli 9mm

2468

101214161820

CDN

$ pe

r bus

hel

Field Pea Prices - Saskatchewan

Feed peas Green edibles Yellow edibles

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Cent

s pe

r pou

nd

Lentil Prices - Saskatchewan

Large Green Small Green Red

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

Cent

s pe

r pou

nd

Canaryseed Price - Saskatchewan

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 3,730 3,325 3,985 3,680 4,239 4,500Harvested Acres, 000' 3,645 3,285 3,923 3,632 4,166 4,405Yield (bu/acre) 33.7 44.3 35.7 32.4 42.7 37.7

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 265 174 329 684 176 282 Production 3,341 3,961 3,810 3,201 4,836 4,525 Imports 16 25 31 16 20 10Total Supply 3,622 4,160 4,170 3,901 5,032 4,817

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 226 270 251 290 300 275 Other Domestic 572 781 144 718 850 800 Exports 2,650 2,781 3,091 2,716 3,600 3,200Total Disposition 3,448 3,831 3,486 3,724 4,750 4,275

Ending Stocks 174 329 684 176 282 542Stocks/Use 5.0% 8.6% 19.6% 4.7% 5.9% 12.7%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Field Pea Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 2,515 2,720 3,120 4,035 5,860 4,850Harvested Acres, 000' 2,481 2,695 3,008 3,926 5,740 4,747Yield (lbs/acre) 1,367 1,850 1,456 1,427 1,248 1,469

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 860 467 786 365 73 432 Production 1,538 2,262 1,987 2,541 3,248 3,164 Imports 9 9 13 16 25 20Total Supply 2,407 2,738 2,786 2,921 3,347 3,616

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 93 106 132 199 165 175 Other Domestic 209 93 61 503 500 600 Exports 1,638 1,753 2,229 2,146 2,250 2,350Total Disposition 1,940 1,952 2,421 2,848 2,915 3,125

Ending Stocks 467 786 365 73 432 491Stocks/Use 24% 40% 5% 5% 5% 5%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Lentil Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 200 195 195 125 172 175Harvested Acres, 000' 198 193 175 125 163 169Yield (lbs/acre) 1,797 2,097 1,664 1,600 1,658 1,763

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 11 54 138 137 20 17 Production 161 184 132 91 123 135 Imports 9 5 5 4 4 5Total Supply 181 243 275 231 147 157

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 13 10 8 11 10 10 Other Domestic 46 50 50 50 35 40 Exports 68 45 80 151 85 85Total Disposition 127 105 138 212 130 135


Canadian Chickpea Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 350 220 280 335 265 225Harvested Acres, 000's 325 210 270 325 225 213Yield (lbs/acre) 1,015 1,375 1,039 1,040 1,321 1,158

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 42 62 40 39 71 76 Production 150 131 127 153 135 112 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0Total Supply 207 218 217 232 231 218

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 4 5 7 6 5 5 Other Domestic 4 8 8 9 10 10 Exports 137 165 164 146 140 155Total Disposition 145 178 179 161 155 170


Canadian Canaryseed Supply & Disposition


5 of 9


15

17

19

21

23

25

27

Cent

s pe

r pou

nd

Oil Sunflower Price - Saskatchewan

15202530354045505560

Cent

s pe

r pou

nd

Mustard Prices - Saskatchewan

Yellow Mustard Brown Mustard Oriental Mustard

300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750

C$ p

er to

nne

Flax Price - Manitoba & Saskatchewan

Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

US$

per

cw

t

North Dakota Dry Bean Producer Bids

Pinto Black Pea Bean

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 980 1,070 1,585 1,640 935 1,250 Harvested Acres, 000' 950 1,043 1,534 1,595 836 1,197 Yield (bu/acre) 20.3 27.6 22.4 23.3 27.3 24.2

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 137 71 92 98 274 103 Production 489 731 873 942 579 734 Imports 15 14 11 12 10 10 Total Supply 640 816 975 1,052 863 847

Disposition ('000 tonnes) Seed 18 27 28 16 28 28 Other Domestic 71 80 143 130 122 146 Exports 481 616 707 633 610 600 Total Disposition 569 724 877 779 760 774

Ending Stocks 71 92 98 274 103 73 Stocks/Use 12% 13% 11% 35% 14% 9%Source: Statistics Canada with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Flax Supply & Disposition12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 100 70 75 100 70 95 Harvested Acres, 000' 98 68 72 95 68 92 Yield (lbs/ac) 1,955 1,683 1,684 1,685 1,640 1,729

Supply ('000 tonnes) Carry-In 7 17 8 10 29 29 Production 87 52 55 73 51 72 Imports 27 25 25 20 20 20 Total Supply 121 94 88 102 99 121



Canadian Sunflower Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 335 365 500 345 525 350 Harvested Acres, 000' 333 360 483 328 497 340 Yield (lbs/acre) 951 1,099 904 829 1,038 964




Canadian Mustard Supply & Disposition

12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Seeded Acres, 000's 325 287 332 317 301 288 Harvested Acres, 000' 317 287 321 315 296 279 Yield (lbs/acre) 1,905 2,178 2,034 2,097 2,079 2,058


Disposition ('000 tonnes) Total Domestic 48 45 55 57 60 60 Exports 300 309 333 320 320 280 Total Disposition 348 354 388 377 380 340

Ending Stocks 25 28 19 28 16 22 Stocks/Use 7.3% 7.9% 5.0% 7.3% 4.3% 6.5%Source: StatsCan & AgCan with LeftField projections in bold

Canadian Dry Bean Supply & Disposition


6 of 9


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Indi

an R

upee

s pe

r Qui

ntal

Yellow Pea Spot Prices - Mumbai, India

8101214161820222426

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Yellow Pea Grower Prices

ID/WA Sask NDak

4

9

14

19

24

29

34

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Green Pea Grower Prices

ID/WA Sask NDak

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

CDN

$ pe

r CW

T

Green Lentil Grower Prices

Brewer ID/WA Lg Grn SK Richlea NDak

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Rupe

es p

er q

uint

al

Red Lentil Spot Price - India

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,8001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Licensed Pea Exports

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

Not including containers and exports through unlicensed facilities.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Pea Farm Deliveries

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Canadian Field Pea Visible Stocks

Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator 10-Yr Avg


7 of 9


250300350400450500550600650700750

US$

per

tonn

e

Global Sunseed Values

CIF ARAG Offer Kansas NuSun Bid FOB Argentina

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Whole Lentil Prices - Mersin, Turkey

Whole Red Whole Green

0.50

1.50

2.50

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Processed Lentil Prices - Mersin

Split Red Red Football Split Yellow

2,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,000

Rupe

es p

er q

uint

al

Chana (Desi) Price - Jaipur

0.25

2.25

4.25

6.25

8.25

10.25

12.25

Turk

ish

Lira

per

kg

Kabuli Chickpea Prices - Mersin

7 mm 8 mm 9 mm 10 mm

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

Rupe

es p

er to

nne

Mustard Spot Price - Jaipur, India

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

US$

per

cw

t

US Oil Sunflower Prices

ND/MN Composite Great Plains Composite

10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30

US$

per

cw

t

Average US Birdseed Sunflower Bid


8 of 9


500 600 700 800 900

1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400

US$

per

tonn

e

Veg Oil Prices NW Europe

Rape oil Sun oil Lin oil

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

US$

per

tonn

e

Veg Meal Prices NW Europe

Soy Meal Rape Meal Lin Meal

350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800

US$

per

tonn

e

Linseed CIF NW Europe

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

US$

per

ton

Minneapolis-Duluth Linseed Meal Price

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

US$

per

bus

hel

Red Wing, MN Daily Flax Bid

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

4001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Cumulative Licensed Flax Exports

2016/17 2015/16 5-Yr Avg

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Weekly Flax Farm Deliveries

2016/17 2015/16 10-Yr Avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Canadian Flax Visible Stocks

Terminal & In-Transit Primary Elevator 5-Yr Avg


9 of 9


200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Com

posi

te R

ate

Inde

x

Container Freight Indices

Howe Robinson ConTex

0.660

0.710

0.760

0.810

0.860

0.910

0.960

1.010

1.060

US$

per

C$

US Dollars per Cdn Dollar

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Rupe

es p

er d

olla

r

Indian Rupees per Cdn & US Dollar

Vs US dollar Vs Cdn dollar

0.600.650.700.750.800.850.900.951.00

Euro

s pe

r dol

lar

Euros per Cdn & US Dollar

US dollar Cdn dollar

1.40

1.90

2.40

2.90

3.40

3.90

4.40

Turk

ish

Lira

per

dol

lar

Turkish Lira per Cdn & US Dollar

US dollar Cdn dollar

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$

per

cw

t

Mexico Wholesale Bean Prices

Garbancillo Peruano Black Pinto

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

US$

per

tonn

e

Argentine Dry Bean Prices

Sm wht Med wht Lg wht Black Red

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US$

per

tonn

e

Selected Bulk Ocean Freight

PNW-Jpn (Panamax) St Law-Rott (Handy) Duluth-Rott

special crops update - constant contact

Documents