spe 13239 1984 natl petroleum council study on eor an overview

8/16/2019 SPE 13239 1984 NatL Petroleum Council Study on EOR an Overview

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The 1984 NatL Petroleum Council

Study on EOR: An Overview

J.H. Broome

SPE, Texaco Inc.

J.M. Bohannon

SPE, Conoco Inc.

W.C. Stewart SPE, Conoco Inc.

p

/32 37

summary. An

overview of what is considered the most extensive EOR study ever accomplished is discussed.

In this s~dy, 86 persons from 34 companies worked over a period of 17 months to develop a document that

indicates the dkection that EOR might take for the next 3 decades, Projected production, based on both

implemented and advanced technology, is presented to shOw tie effect Of chmges in Price Of cmde ~d

minimum rate of return (ROR) requirements. The study indicates that EOR could increase the current domestic

cmde reserves by about 40%. It also indicates that the ultimate recovery and the projected producing rates, of

EOR projects we h@dy sensitive tO ch~ges in cmde oil Prices.

Introduction

TheNatL

Petroleum Council (NPC) is a board of indus-

hy leaders established solely for the purpose of advising,

informing, and making recommendations to the Secretzuy

of Energy on any matter relating to the petroleum indus-

try. In 1976, the NPC developed a study on EOR cover-

ing state of the art, future amounts to be produced, and

policy considerations. On March 10, 1983, the Secretary

of Energy requested that tie 1976 stady be updated and

expanded where necesszwy. Therefore, a committee on

EOR and a coordinating subcommittee were established.

The coordinating subcommittee formed four task forces

specializing in chemical, miscible, and tberms3 recnve~

processes and costs and economics.

The restddng study is presented in the following format.

Chap. I—Background of Od Recovery Operations

Chap. 2–Developments Affecting EOR Siice 1976

Chap. 3—Analysis Considerations and Procedures

Chap. 4–Potentinl for EOR

Chap. 5—EOR in Perspective to Other Energy Sourcas

Chap. 6—Policy Considerations.

The Appendices present important information too de-

tailed to include in the main part of the report.

Appendm A—Request Letter

Appendix B—Rosters

Appendm C—Additional Economic Considerations

Appendix D—Chemical Flooding

Appendix E—Miscible Floodlng

Appendix F—ThermaJ Recovery

Appendix G—Environmental Considerations

Appendix H—Research Progress amd Future

Implications

This paper, which presents an overview of the study,

was presented in conjunction with three companion

papers

1-3that provide ~~yses Ofthe SpeCificprOcesses.

The NPC Study

Chap. l—Background of Oil Recovery Operations. The

API and DOE estimate that a total of about 481x109 .bbl

Copyright 1986 S.ciely.1

Petrdau n.J..ws

Journal of Petroleum Technology, A.E.st 1986

[76.5 X109 m3] crude liquids have been discovered in

the U.S.4,5 Of this, 130x 109 bbl [20.7x 109 m3] (27%)

have been moduced and 28X 109 bbl r4.5 x 109 m3]

(6%) are e;pected to be produced under &isting techni-

cal and economic conditions. This leaves 323x 109 bbl

[51.4 x 109 m3] (67%) of conventionally unrecoverable

hydrecarbnns as an upper-limit target for EOR techniques.

Current EOR projects are providing 0.5 x106 B/D

[79.5 x 103 m3/d] (6% of the total production of

J

8.6x106 B/D [1.4x I0 m3/d].

Chap. 2-Developments Aftkting EOR Since 1976.

Since 1976, several factors have affected the EOR pro-”

grams of mnny companies. The decontrol of oil allowed

the effective price of crude to seek its market vslue, re-

sulting in an increase ofas much as 100% inconstant dol-

lars. Additionally, the Tertiary Incentive Program met

with great success snd contributed to the initiation of 423

projects operated by more than 100 companies.

Because of the proviskm that reduces the burden on ter-

tisry recovery, the Windfall Profit Tax stimulated some

projects, primarily those with low initial investments.

Chap. 3—Anafysi5Considerations and Procedures. De-

veloping and Verif9ing a Data Base A data base was

inhially provided for the study by the DOE to expand this

information to include as many domestic reservoirs with

more than 20x 106 bbl [3.2x 106 m3] origimd oil in

place (OOIP) as possible and to check the accuracy of the

data, questionnaires on 1,300 reservoirs were completed

by 18 different companies.

The resulting data base, supplemented by information

provided by Lewin and Assocs., included 2,500 reser-

voirs containing approximately 73% of alJ the OOIP in

the U.S. estimated by the most recent (1980) API state-

by-stateanalysis. A size dktribution studyof the database,

shown by Fig. 1, indicated that the largest 35% of the

reservoirs (those greater than 50x 106 bbl [7.9x106 m3]

OOIP) contained 92% of the OOIP. Therefore, it was

869


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I

CUM. PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL RESERVOIRS

, ~oo2% 5 1015 30

50 65 80 90 95

. ,

i

1

Fig.

z

0 3040 50(

CUM. PER&NTAG~ 0? TOTAL OOIP

l—Resewolr size distribution-NPC data base.

decided to delete smaller reservoirs from further study,

eliminating 65% of the reservoirs but only 8% of the

OOIP.

More than two-thirds of all the OOIP in the U.S. is rep-

resented in the remaining database. This is illustrated by

Fig. 1, which is a plot of reservoir size vs. cumulative

percentage of total OOIP,

Fig. 2 illustrates by state the fraction of the total OOIP

represented in the NPC data base on the basis of the 1980

API estimate.

Dejfning Reservoir Screeh Criteria After the datn bnae

was assimilated nnd verified, a set of csrefully selected

screening criteria was established for each EOR process

that allowed each reservoir tobe assigned to one or more

processes or to be deleted from further consideration. Tbe

specific criteria developed for each process sre dkcussed

in the companion papers for the individual processes. 1-3

Developing and ?ufib:ating Process Models It should

bc stressed that the process models are simplified analyt-

ical took and ae not detailed simulators. Every mu of

the model received an intensive review to ensure that en-

gineering judgment was included in the formulation of the

results

Derivinz Cost and Economic Factors The process

implemented-technolo~ and an advanced-technol&y

case. The implemented-technology case predicts the

recovery tiat will result from technology that is current-

ly proved in either large-scale commercial operations

(primarily thermal), tieldwide tests (primarily miscible),

or pilot tests (primmily chemical).

The advanced-technology case predicts the recoveqf that

might result from technology that in the consensus of the

task force members may develop in the next 30 years.

The advsnced processes we assumed to begin in 1988for

steam processes and in 1995 for all other processes to al-

low for development time for the new techniques.

The economics were baaed on a discounted cash flow

analysis for the 30-year time frame of the study. A

constant-dollar analysis was used to eliminate any dktor-

tion resulting from inflation.

The cost data were divided into process-independent

costs—such as drilling, completion, equipment, and nor-

mal operating costs—and process-dependent costs—such

as chemicil or C02 costs.

The baae case assumes the price. of cmde to remoin at

a nominal $30.00/bbl [$189/m3] throughout the study

period, a minimum acceptable ROR of 10%, and the ap-

plication of the implemented technology. To investigate

the sensitivity of EOR to price, additional runs were made

onboth the implemented and the advnnced cases, aasum-

ing crude oil rices of $20,$40, and $50/bbl [$26, $252,

?

and $314/m ] throughout the study period.

These nominal prices are based on 40°API

[0.83-g/cm3] midcontinent crude oil. Corrections were

included for each resemoir to adjust for

actual

gravity rind,

in some cases, geographical location. Thk resulted in

average crude prices significantly lower than these nomi-

nal prices. For example, the $30/bbl [$189/m 3] nomi-

nal case had an effective average crude price of $25.45.

For each run at a different nominal oi3price, various

categories of investments and costs were also assumed to

change in a fixed relatiorrshp to the oil price. The cost

of drilling and completion was assumed to change 4% for

each 10% change in the price of oil from the $30/bbl

[$189/m3] case. The cost of facilities and equipment was

assumed to change by 3%, the operating cost by 2%, and

the fuelcost by 10%. The basic tax structure was assumed

to be that of a major oiI company with a corporate tax

of 46%. a state tax of 4%, and a severance tax of 8%.

model fo; each reservoir was run on the basi; of an The royalty was assumed to be 12.5%.

870

&?dApl ESTIMATE(1980)

Fig. 2—Oistributim of OOIP: total of 460x 109 bbl.

,.

Joumd ofP.tmlam Technology, August 1986


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LEGEND:

= THERMAL RECOVERY – 45%

(6.5 BILLION BARRELSI

m MISCIBLE FLOODING – 38%

(5.5 BILLION BARRELS)

~ CHEMICAL FLOODING - 17%

(2.5 BILLION BARRELS)

TOTAL ULTIMATE EOR = 14.5 BILLION BARRELS

-,.. . .....—–. ‘,——-—.”-..

,. . . . ...-...” ---- ------: -----

l-q.

3—u mriate remve~— mp emen em eG”

””,”gy, .., s =.” ”1,,,. . ..=.

Lkvefoping Projection Methodology

It was decided

that, because more than two-tilrds of the OOIP in the

country was represented in the data base, no exmapola-

tion of results would be made. Although it is realiied that

some reservoirs with leas than 50x 106 bbl [7.9X106

m3] will exhbit EOR potential and tiat some reservoirs

with greater than 50x 106 bbl [7.9x 106 m3] were

missed, the large number of reservoirs used makes dre

projections a fair representation of the EOR potential in

the U.S.

Chap. 4-Potential for

EOR.

It ahotdd be stressed that

the results of thk study are not tn be considered predic-

tions of future EOR ultimates or producing rates. They

ze projections of possible recovery and rates, given the

stated assumptions of price, technology, arrd other con-

dhiona. Irraddition to these conditions, EOR will depend

greatly on what happens to competing energy srmrces, and

no attempt was made to quantifj’ this.

Wb.lrtle above qualifications in mind, Fig. 3 illustrates

dreprojected ultimate recovery from the various processes

for the implemented technology at $30/bbl [$189/m3] and

a minimum acceptable ROR of 10%. The ultimate recov-

ery projected under these condkiorrs is 14.5x 10g bbl

[2.3x log m3]. About 3.5x109 bbl [0.6x 109 m3] of

these reserves ~e currently booked as proven reserves,

indkating that the national reserve base maybe increased

by 11x109 bbl [1.7x109 m3].

Thermal recuvery could contribute about 6.5x109 bbl

[1X109 m3] (45%) of the 14.5x 10g bbl [2.3x109 m3]

irrcrease in reserves. Miscible recovery processes might

produce 5.5x 109 bbl [0.9x 109 m3] (38%) of EOR

while chemicaf techniques (which include surfacta.ntsand

polymers) might

contribute 2 5

x 109 bbl [0.4x 109 m3]

(17%).

Of these totul reserves, 25% is projected to be produced

beyond the 30-year period of this study.

Fig. 4 presents the sensitivity to price of EOR pmc-

eases for both the implemented- and the advanced-

technology cases. These values were calculated with a

rniuinmm ROR of 10’%assumed.

For the implementerf-technology case, the ultimate

recovery increases from 14.5X10g bbl at $30/bbl

Journal of PetroleurD TdllKIIow, A“wst 1986

Fig. 4–Ultimate recovery by process–advanced- and

Implemented-technology cases.

Fig. 5—Production rate—implemented-technology, baa@

economic case.

871


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I

Y-7---7% i

~+1- ----+–%<

:~

.-. -1 ---.7---

-1

-4..\,

’

,,,,,,5jd.::::l,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,j~-

soo

EGEND

—— 50, RBL.

---- 40/BBL.

l-”

.--, .,,,,,,,,,,

— 30(6BL.

I

~ ,. .,,


5/6

m3id for the $314/m3 ] case is shown to occur 5 years

before the peak rate of slightly more than 2X 106 B/D

for the $30/bbl [0.3X 106 m3/d for the $189/m3] rate.

Thk is caused by both at increase in ultimate production

snd an acceleration of production resulting from enhanced

economics.

Fig.

9

compares the implemented technolo~ and the

advanced technoloev for the base case Of $30~b1

[$189/m3] and 10%-”minimumROR. Advmtced technol-

ogy is predicted to increase the producing rate froin

1.2x 106 to more that 2X106 B/D [0.2x 106 to more

than 0.3 x 106 m3/d], illustrating the incentive for for-

thei research in the area of EOR.

Chap. 5–EOR in Perspective to Other Energy

Sources. Liquid petroleum provided approximately 43%

of.the energy supply for our country’s needs in 1982.6

The remainder ivas supplied primarily by natural gas,

cosf, and nuclear energy.

Fig. 10 shows the relatively small fraction of the total

domestic liquid supply that is anticipated by the study to

be provided by EOR. Although the EOR production

makes at important contribtttion, it is clesrly not the to-

tsl answer to our nation’s future energy needs.

Chap. 6—POlicyConsiderations. An extensive irivekti-

gation of the impact of EOR on the environment indicat-

ed that there would be little increase in land use over that

required for primary and secondsry projects, but tAetime

of use would be extended. Additionally, it was conclud-

ed that dfligent observance by the operators of the cut-

rent relations will suftlciently mitigate the effects of

EOR o; the environment.

Of the mmty ways that EOR will benefit society, the

reduction that it will cause in crude imports is perhaps

the most obvious. It_will also increaae employment with-

in the oil indust~ and its associated industries. The in-

creased production from EOR will slao extend the period

of transition to aketnative energy sources and, at the sane

time, provide addhioml income to the government.

Comparison of the 1976 Study

With the 1984 Study

Fig. 11

compsres the implemented and advsnced cases

of ~e 1984 study with ifte 1976 study. The 1976 study

included advanced technology but did not include al of

the technological considerations of the new study. Con-

sidering the long-range nature of these forecasts, the re-

cent study is generslly comparable with the 1976 study.

Fig. 12 depicts the predicted producing cates for the

two studies, illusttsting the slower, more sustsined in-

crease of the 1984 study.

Conclusions

1. EOR could increase the current domestic reserves

by approximately 40%, msking a significant contribution

to the nation’s energy needs.

2. The technical uncertainty of the various processes

varies widely.

3. The tdtiniate recovefy and the projected producing

rates from EOR are highly sensitive to the price of crude

oil.

4. EOR will satisfy an impoftant, but small, portion of

tie totsl energy demand.

Journal of Petroleum Technology, Augus t 1986

18 r-

> 16 -

TOTAL PETROLEUM LIQUIDS

<

Q 14

%

Q 12 -

2

:

10

.

:

.8 -

8

6 -’

g

i4

*

~2 -

~o~ ~ROJECTION

0

-r-l

1 I 1

I

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fia. 10—EOR compared to total petroleum liquids.

THERMAL

34%

MISCIBLE

38%

CHEMICAL

28%

1976

B

HERMAL

45%

MISCIBLE

38%

CHEMICAL

~7%

THERMAL

38%

MISCIBLE

22%

:HEMICAL

40°%

1984 1984

IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED

Fig. n-Recovery comparisons for the 1976 and 198,

studies.

Fig. 12—Tot?l EOR Production rate-base economic caae.

873


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Acknowledgments

The work of the 86 persons and the 34 companies and

organizations that contributed to the 1984 NPC Study on

R is

gratefully acknowledged.

References

1 . K in g, J, E., Blevins,T,R., andBrifion,M.W.: “The NatJ.Petr-

oleumCouncilEOR Study: ThermaJ Processes,>, piper SPE 13242

Preseuti at fhe 1984 SPE Annual

Technical C.mf.r.m, md

ExMbition, Houston, Sept. 16-19.

2.

Rob],F. W., Em.el, A. S,, and Van Meter, O.E. Jr.: The 1984

NwL Pemoleum Council Estimate of PotemiaJ of EOR for Miscible

Processes,,,

J PT A ug. 1 98 6 8 7 5-8 2.

3 . Doe, P.H ., Carey, B. S ., and Helmuth, E. S.: WI. NatL Petrole-

nm CouKiJ EOR Study Chemical Processes,” paper SPE 13240

presented at the 1984 mn.al TechnkaJ Conference and ExAibido.n,

Sept. 16-19.

874

4 . Res ew s of C ru d e O il , N at ur a l Gas Liquids and Natural Gas in

the Unfted Srcmv and Cm da s

of

December

3 1, 1 9W , A PI,

Wa.shingm (J.”. 1980) 34.

5. “Cmde Oil, Namml &s, and Nafural Gas Liquids Reserves,” 19S2

Ammal Report , U.S. DOE/EJA (Au~. 19S3).

6,

B sic Pemkun Dar Book Petroleum [nduwry Starisric API

Wa.shinst.m (Sept. 1983) 3, No. 3.

S1 Metric Conversion Factor

bbl X 1.589873 E–01 = m3

JPT

Original manu% mipt recei ved in the Sm lel y of Petrol eum E.gi.ws ofi ce Sept. 16,

W34. Paper accepted forpub lica tion Apr il 22, 19s6. Ret ised rmn.smx receved May

22. 19S6. PaPe ISPE 13239 ) fi rs : presented a t the 19S. SPE Annua l Techn ical Con-

fer.”.. and Exilbitim held in Ho”%.”, S@. 1G19.

JO.rDaI of Pct rolewn Technology, August 1986

spe 13239 1984 natl petroleum council study on eor an overview

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