spc convective outlook changes
DESCRIPTION
SPC Convective Outlook Changes. Changes in Category Names/Definitions. Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service, Wakefield VA http://weather.gov/akq. Storm Prediction Center ( SPC ). Located in Norman, OK since 1997 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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SPC Convective Outlook Changes
Changes in Category Names/Definitions
Bill SammlerWarning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service, Wakefield VAhttp://weather.gov/akq
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Storm Prediction Center (SPC)
• Located in Norman, OK since 1997
• Issues Outlooks for Thunderstorms/Severe Thunderstorms and Fire Weather
• Issues All Tornado and Severe Tstm WATCHES nationwide
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Current SPC Outlooks
• 3 Tiers - SLGT, MDT and HIGH– “See Text” Used for
Marginal Situations• Increased Coverage
and Higher Intensity with MDT/HIGH
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Rationale for Proposed Changes
• Limitations of SEE TEXT and SLGT• SLGT, MDT, HIGH have been used for 40 years and have
some established understanding. Breakpoint thresholds for these categories remain essentially unchanged
• Addition of ENH addresses concern about SLGT (word meaning and probabilistic range)
• Numbers/colors on legend will further aid interpretation
• Social science informed SPC discussions on the change
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Day1 0% 2% 5% 10% 10% sig 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
Tor
Wind
Hail
Day2 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
All Svr
Day3 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig
All Svr
Day4-8 15% 30%
All Svr
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
SLGT
SLGTSLGT
SLGT
SLGT
SLGT
MARGINALMARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
HIGHHIGH
HIGH
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Probability-to-Categorical Description Tables (2014)
• Increase risk categories to 5 levels for Day 1, Day 2, & Day 3 Outlooks
Category 1 = MRGL Category 2 = SLGT Category 3 = ENH Category 4 = MDT Category 5 = HIGH
Day 1-3 Outlook Changes
“sig” = Significant Severe Tstms = Hail 2+ and/orWind ≥ 65KT/75 MPH
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• Increase risk categories to 5 levels for Day 1, Day 2, & Day 3 Outlooks• Replace See Text with Marginal for lowest risk probabilities
(Day 1 - Day 3)
Day1 0% 2% 5% 10% 10% sig 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
Tor
Wind
Hail
Day2 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
All Svr
Day3 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig
All Svr
Day4-8 15% 30%
All Svr
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
SLGT
SLGTSLGT
SLGT
SLGT
SLGT
MARGINALMARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
HIGHHIGH
HIGH
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Probability-to-Categorical Description Tables (2014)
Day 1-3 Outlook Changes
“sig” = Significant Severe Tstms = Hail 2+ and/orWind ≥ 65KT/75 MPH
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• Increase risk categories to 5 levels for Day 1, Day 2, & Day 3 Outlooks• Replace See Text with Marginal for lowest risk probabilities (Day 1 - Day 3)
• Insert Enhanced between high-end SLGT & low-end MDT probabilities
Day1 0% 2% 5% 10% 10% sig 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
Tor
Wind
Hail
Day2 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
All Svr
Day3 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig
All Svr
Day4-8 15% 30%
All Svr
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
SLGT
SLGTSLGT
SLGT
SLGT
SLGT
MARGINALMARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
HIGHHIGH
HIGH
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Probability-to-Categorical Description Tables (2014)
Day 1-3 Outlook Changes
“sig” = Significant Severe Tstms = Hail 2+ and/orWind ≥ 65KT/75 MPH
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• Increase risk categories to 5 levels for Day 1, Day 2, & Day 3 Outlooks• Replace See Text with Marginal for lowest risk probabilities (Day 1 - Day 3)• Insert Enhanced between high-end Slight & low-end Moderate probabilities
• Add a 15 percent (Slight Risk) to Day 4-8 Outlooks
Day1 0% 2% 5% 10% 10% sig 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
Tor
Wind
Hail
Day2 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig 60% 60% sig
All Svr
Day3 0% 5% 15% 15% sig 30% 30% sig 45% 45% sig
All Svr
Day4-8 15% 30%
All Svr
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
TSTMS
SLGT
SLGTSLGT
SLGT
SLGT
SLGT
MARGINALMARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
MARGINAL
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
ENHANCED
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
MDT
HIGHHIGH
HIGH
SPC Severe Weather Outlook Probability-to-Categorical Description Tables (2014)
Day 4-8 Outlook Changes
Expected to result in better alignment with WFO forecasts and DSS
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13Z Day 1 (Current)6/1/2011
13Z Day 1 LSRs6/1/2011
Example of Change (Day 1)13Z Day 1 (New)
6/1/2011
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SPC Outlook Changes
Current Timeline for Implementing Changes:
September 2014
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
Spring 2014 Expansion • IBW began in 2012.
• Positive feedback supported expansion to 38 central region offices in 2013.
• In 2014, six new offices, including NWS Blacksburg, were added.
• Expansion is expected in the future.
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
Goals:• Provide additional valuable information to media and Emergency Managers• Facilitate improved public response and decision making• Better meet societal needs in the most life-threatening weather events
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
Intended Outcomes:• Optimize the convective warning system within the existing structure• Motivate proper response to warnings by distinguishing situational urgency• Realign the warning message in terms of societal impacts• Communicate recommended actions/precautions more concisely• Evaluate ability to distinguish between low impact and high impact events
2011 Raleigh EF3 Tornado?
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Tornado – Radar Indicated or ObservedImpact Based Warning Examples
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Tornado – Tag: ConsiderableImpact Based Warning Examples
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Tornado – Tag: CatastrophicImpact Based Warning Examples
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Severe Thunderstorm Warning: Tornado PossibleImpact Based Warning Examples
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
Enhancements By:• Improving communication of critical information• Making it easier to quickly identify the most valuable information• Enabling users to prioritize the key warnings in your area of interest• Providing different levels of risk within the same product• Enabling the NWS to express a confidence level of potential impacts
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
Evaluation:• Performed by social science research groups and National Weather Service• Using focus groups and surveys• Media partners• Emergency Management• Public• NWS Forecasters
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Building a Weather-Ready Nation
Impact Based WarningExperimental Product
http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=IBW
www.weather.gov/impacts