Spatial & Ecological AnalysisSpatial & Ecological Analysisof Red Fir Decline in Californiaof Red Fir Decline in California

Using FIA DataUsing FIA Data

Leif A. Leif A. MortensonMortenson

Oregon State University, Forest Science MS StudentOregon State University, Forest Science MS Student& USFS PNW Forest Inventory & Analysis Program& USFS PNW Forest Inventory & Analysis Program

OutlineOutline•• RationalRational•• BackgroundBackground

red firred firFIA dataFIA data

•• Discuss the most common criticisms of my project at the beginniDiscuss the most common criticisms of my project at the beginning in ng in hope of receiving hope of receiving constructiveconstructive

comments comments

•• Level one hypothesesLevel one hypotheses

•• Possible factoring contributing to red fir declinePossible factoring contributing to red fir declineanthropogenicanthropogenicbioticbioticabioticabiotic

•• ObjectivesObjectives•• MethodsMethods•• Level two hypothesesLevel two hypotheses•• ‘‘09 field season observations09 field season observations•• QuestionsQuestions

FIAFIA++ ++

http://medicsfamily.com/us_states/shapes/California=shape.jpg

==h33t.com

II’’ve been (seen forests)ve been (seen forests)everywhereeverywhere……....

WHY?.....WHY?.....

JOHNNY‘s

...and the most consistent trend in the ...and the most consistent trend in the state from my observations is:state from my observations is:

Red fir stands generally look horribleRed fir stands generally look horrible

•• Many dead treesMany dead trees

•• Heavy Heavy ccoarse oarse wwoody oody mmaterialaterial

•• Plethora of damages on live treesPlethora of damages on live trees

Since it is not a new phenomena,Since it is not a new phenomena,it is not generating much excitementit is not generating much excitement

In addition, it will be interesting andIn addition, it will be interesting andrelevant to compare the findings ofrelevant to compare the findings ofthis project with studies such as:this project with studies such as:

Miller et al.Miller et al.’’s 2008 study that notess 2008 study that notesincreased burned area in high elevation,increased burned area in high elevation,fir dominated forests from 1984fir dominated forests from 1984--2004 2004

andand

van Mantgem et al.van Mantgem et al.’’s well publicizeds well publicizedScienceScience study study Widespread IncreaseWidespread Increaseof Tree Mortality in the western US of Tree Mortality in the western US

Background: Red Fir (Background: Red Fir (Abies magnificaAbies magnifica))

• High elevation species (exact elevations changeHigh elevation species (exact elevations changewith latitude)with latitude)

•• Much of its range lies in popular recreational Much of its range lies in popular recreational areas such as Yosemite N.P. & Lake Tahoeareas such as Yosemite N.P. & Lake Tahoe

•• Relies on snowpack for hydration which makesRelies on snowpack for hydration which makesit a good indicator of climate changeit a good indicator of climate change

•• Very important species for wildlifeVery important species for wildlife

•• Climax speciesClimax speciesNearctic.com

www.scsc.k12.ar.us

Range

Forest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) DataForest Inventory & Analysis (FIA) Datawww.fs.fed.us/pnw/fia

• Stratified Stratified randomizedrandomized plot locations plot locations

•• Averages one plot every 3.4 miles in forested conditions across Averages one plot every 3.4 miles in forested conditions across all of all of CaliforniaCalifornia

•• Inventories all physical damages, mortality, growth rates, inseInventories all physical damages, mortality, growth rates, insect and ct and disease damages, site characteristics etc.disease damages, site characteristics etc.

•• ReRe--measured to account for change every 5 years (Forest Service lanmeasured to account for change every 5 years (Forest Service land d plots) or 10 years (nonplots) or 10 years (non--FS Federal and private land plots)FS Federal and private land plots)

•• In addition I will be creating a mortality prediction model forIn addition I will be creating a mortality prediction model for ““veryverysicksick”” trees using FIA damage datatrees using FIA damage data

Being OffensiveBeing Offensive

Two major criticisms of this project :Two major criticisms of this project :

•• Limitations of FIA dataLimitations of FIA data

•• The term The term ““declinedecline””

The usual feedback I get when I mention usingThe usual feedback I get when I mention usinginsect & disease data from a data set (FIA)insect & disease data from a data set (FIA)

which was not originally created forwhich was not originally created forentomologists & pathologists: entomologists & pathologists:

•• ““You canYou can’’t use FIA data becauset use FIA data because…….x, y, z.x, y, z””

•• ““You canYou can’’t do that because back in 1996 in (you choose a state)t do that because back in 1996 in (you choose a state)I couldnI couldn’’t do thatt do that””

•• ““Why donWhy don’’t you do a quality control study?t you do a quality control study?””

Trust me, I know the limitationsTrust me, I know the limitations

Things have changed over the last decade & I donThings have changed over the last decade & I don’’t t want to know about personal vendettaswant to know about personal vendettas

Not what INot what I’’m funded to dom funded to do

Why FIA data will work well for this project:Why FIA data will work well for this project:

•• FIA data is rapidly improving due to satellite duty stations,FIA data is rapidly improving due to satellite duty stations,

crews working withcrews working withlocal experts, myself working with crews on red fir plots, kelocal experts, myself working with crews on red fir plots, keeping one plot designeping one plot design

•• Since I both collect and analyze this data I am able to categoSince I both collect and analyze this data I am able to categorize and analyze it inrize and analyze it inunique ways that someone unfamiliar with the field protocol wunique ways that someone unfamiliar with the field protocol would not know to do ould not know to do

•• Working with PNW analyst Andy GrayWorking with PNW analyst Andy Gray

•• Huge data set, Huge data set, lots of plots offers unrivaled coverage for a large scale projeclots of plots offers unrivaled coverage for a large scale projectt

•• Large scale, ideally cooperative projects, by nature, will havLarge scale, ideally cooperative projects, by nature, will have some flaws bute some flaws butthey offer very significant findings useful to many and are nthey offer very significant findings useful to many and are now being heavilyow being heavilyencouraged by the likes of PNW and entire committee at OSUencouraged by the likes of PNW and entire committee at OSU

DECLINE!!!DECLINE!!!www.istockphoto.com

thehogshead.org

•• This is the most appropriate word I can find for stands that conThis is the most appropriate word I can find for stands that consist mostly of sist mostly of dead trees & live trees that have dwarf mistletoe, dead trees & live trees that have dwarf mistletoe, cytosporacytospora

canker, root canker, root disease, bark beetles & dead tops. Idisease, bark beetles & dead tops. I’’m open to suggestions for other terms.m open to suggestions for other terms.

•• The Society of American Foresters (SAF) defines decline as:The Society of American Foresters (SAF) defines decline as:

““decrease in trees, shrubs, and herbs, or forest health and vigordecrease in trees, shrubs, and herbs, or forest health and vigor,,caused by one or more biotic or abiotic factorscaused by one or more biotic or abiotic factors””

•• Decline is a difficult thing to quantify (or reject) but that isDecline is a difficult thing to quantify (or reject) but that is

precisely my aimprecisely my aim……....

www.safnet.dreamhosters.com

2009

Level One Hypotheses:Level One Hypotheses:

• Rates of mortality and declineRates of mortality and declineare increasing in red fir in Californiaare increasing in red fir in California

• Rates of mortality and decline areRates of mortality and decline arehigher in the southern half of the red firhigher in the southern half of the red firdistribution zone than in the northerndistribution zone than in the northernhalfhalf

www.yosemite.ca.us

Increased red fir mortality and decline is generally seenIncreased red fir mortality and decline is generally seenas being caused by a complex interaction of biotic,as being caused by a complex interaction of biotic,

abiotic and anthropogenic factors.abiotic and anthropogenic factors.

Anthropogenic FactorsAnthropogenic Factors

Air Pollution (debatable atAir Pollution (debatable atthis high of an elevation)this high of an elevation)

Forest managementForest management

http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/topics/air_quality/images/sierra_smog.jpg

Abiotic FactorsAbiotic Factors

Drought/climate Drought/climate change (especially change (especially decreased snowpack)decreased snowpack)

Effects of changing Effects of changing fire regimesfire regimes

www.trekearth.com/.../Malmedy/photo151072.htmwww.virginmedia.com/news/inpictures/weekinpic

Biotic FactorsBiotic Factors……....

Red fir dwarf mistletoe Red fir dwarf mistletoe ((ArceuthobiumArceuthobium abietinumabietinum f. f. sp. sp. MagnificaeMagnificae))

CytosporaCytospora canker canker ((CytosporaCytospora abietisabietis))

....Biotic Factors (cont.)....Biotic Factors (cont.)

Fir Engraver Fir Engraver ((ScolytusScolytusventralisventralis))

Annosus Root DiseaseAnnosus Root Disease

Sometimes this mortality provides opportunitiesSometimes this mortality provides opportunities……....

for wildlifefor wildlife…… ……..and recreation..and recreation

www.wildernessclassroom.com/www/schoolhouse/boreal_library/animals/photos/pine_marten.jpg

MartesMartes americanaamericana Yours truliiYours trulii

ObjectivesObjectives……....

Determine which abiotic, anthropogenic or biotic Determine which abiotic, anthropogenic or biotic factors are the most significant broad factors in factors are the most significant broad factors in red fir mortality.red fir mortality.

Work with OSU faculty & USFS PNW Forest Work with OSU faculty & USFS PNW Forest Science Lab (FSL) personnel on using FIA data to Science Lab (FSL) personnel on using FIA data to spatially quantify forest change over time.spatially quantify forest change over time.

Collaborate with FHP, Sonora, CA in gaining a Collaborate with FHP, Sonora, CA in gaining a better understanding of the specific ecological better understanding of the specific ecological processes involved in this mortality.processes involved in this mortality.

……..Objectives..Objectives

Improve the diagnosis of damaging agents in FIA data Improve the diagnosis of damaging agents in FIA data collection.collection.

Produce an overview of red fir mortality by examining all Produce an overview of red fir mortality by examining all damage types on red firdamage types on red fir

Assess mortality and decline over time to confirm that Assess mortality and decline over time to confirm that mortality and decline is indeed increasing and by what rate.mortality and decline is indeed increasing and by what rate.

Produce maps created in ARCGIS for management Produce maps created in ARCGIS for management decisions and further research by examining all inventoried decisions and further research by examining all inventoried mortality and decline geographically.mortality and decline geographically.

MethodsMethods……..

• Analyzing all FIA plots in which red fir makes up 20%Analyzing all FIA plots in which red fir makes up 20%or more of the live/dead tree tallyor more of the live/dead tree tally

•• This is approximately 225 plots in CaliforniaThis is approximately 225 plots in California

•• This will be first study calculating mortality rates on This will be first study calculating mortality rates on remeasured (same plot layout) FIA plotsremeasured (same plot layout) FIA plots

•• Some plots are not yet remeasured and will have to beSome plots are not yet remeasured and will have to beviewed as a viewed as a ““snapshotsnapshot””

and individual damages examinedand individual damages examined

•• Live trees that have a certain number of predeterminedLive trees that have a certain number of predetermineddamages will be damages will be ““red flaggedred flagged””

as as ““greatly sufferinggreatly suffering””

Wikimedia.org

++www.rockls.gi/images/JapaneseScript

==www.clipartof.com

transgriot.blogspot.com/2009_05_01_archive.html

humanunderconstruction.blogspot.com/

…….Methods.Methods……..

• Total live and dead basal area (measured as basal area feetTotal live and dead basal area (measured as basal area feetsquared per acre) will be calculated. A statistically signifisquared per acre) will be calculated. A statistically significantcantincrease in dead red fir basal area from one inventoryincrease in dead red fir basal area from one inventory(measurement) to the next will indicate increasing decline.(measurement) to the next will indicate increasing decline.

•• Measuring to see if there is a significant increase in (basal aMeasuring to see if there is a significant increase in (basal areareafeet squared per acre) recently fallen coarse woody material feet squared per acre) recently fallen coarse woody material between inventory visitsbetween inventory visits

•• Calculating if trees with many damages from previous visit areCalculating if trees with many damages from previous visit aredead at latest visitdead at latest visit

•• Exploring other techniques, open to suggestionsExploring other techniques, open to suggestions

……MethodsMethodsRegional Geospatial Data: Regional Geospatial Data: Spatial analysis will be performed by importing all red fir Spatial analysis will be performed by importing all red fir plots into ARCGIS. Each red fir plot will be overlayed with datplots into ARCGIS. Each red fir plot will be overlayed with data layers showing spatial a layers showing spatial patterns of the following:patterns of the following:

•• Climate/DroughtClimate/Drought

using SNOTEL using SNOTEL (annual snow pack monitoring sites located in the (annual snow pack monitoring sites located in the Sierra Nevada) data and additional data sets quantifying droughtSierra Nevada) data and additional data sets quantifying drought

and change (many and change (many possible sets exist, finding the optimal set will be a necessitypossible sets exist, finding the optimal set will be a necessity, the Palmer Drought , the Palmer Drought Severity Index is likely).Severity Index is likely).

•• Fire RegimeFire Regime

using historical records/maps, fire regime condition class, as wusing historical records/maps, fire regime condition class, as well as ell as current FIA fuel loading data (USDA Forest Service, 2008). current FIA fuel loading data (USDA Forest Service, 2008).

••PathogenPathogen

presence, absence, severity, using (presence, absence, severity, using (alreadyalready

collected) FIA data.collected) FIA data.

••InsectInsect

presence, absence, severity, using (already collected) FIA data.presence, absence, severity, using (already collected) FIA data.

After viewing data in ARCGIS, statistical analysis will begin anAfter viewing data in ARCGIS, statistical analysis will begin and d correlations between correlations between mortality and decline and regional geospatial data will be evalumortality and decline and regional geospatial data will be evaluated.ated.

Nearest neighbor,Nearest neighbor,RipleyRipley’’s K or some form of autocorrelation analysis will be used.s K or some form of autocorrelation analysis will be used.

•• One of the aforementioned abiotic, anthropogenic or bioticOne of the aforementioned abiotic, anthropogenic or bioticfactors will have a stronger factors will have a stronger overall overall spatial correlation spatial correlation withwithred fir mortality and decline than the other factors.red fir mortality and decline than the other factors.

•• Analyzing these data spatially will allow for the factors Analyzing these data spatially will allow for the factors (for example; fir engraver, (for example; fir engraver, H annosumH annosum and drought) mostand drought) mostresponsible for higher mortality and decline to be assignedresponsible for higher mortality and decline to be assignedat a at a regionalregional

or or locallocal

level on a plot by plot basis. level on a plot by plot basis.

•• Heterobasidion annosum Heterobasidion annosum is more widespread in the Sierrais more widespread in the SierraNevada previous reports have acknowledged. Nevada previous reports have acknowledged.

Level Two HypothesesLevel Two Hypotheses…………

…………Observations from the Observations from the ’’09 field season09 field season…………

If there are stumps in If there are stumps in a stand that includes red fir,a stand that includes red fir,

anywhereanywhere

in California,in California,if one looks hard enough,if one looks hard enough,

there will there will alwaysalways

bebe

ANNOSUS!!!!!ANNOSUS!!!!!

(and occasionally Armillaria)(and occasionally Armillaria)

…………Observations from Observations from the the ’’09 field season09 field season…………

In the Mount Shasta (this study is lumping var. In the Mount Shasta (this study is lumping var. shastensis) shastensis) area (far north area (far north in the red fir range) and the eastside Sierra (far south in the in the red fir range) and the eastside Sierra (far south in the red fir range) red fir range) there is no red fir mistletoe and likely little to no Cytospora.there is no red fir mistletoe and likely little to no Cytospora.

Despite the Despite the constant Annosusconstant Annosus

in these areas, the stands lookin these areas, the stands look

exceptionally healthyexceptionally healthy..

…………Observations from the Observations from the ’’09 field season09 field season

Heavy red fir mistletoe infection is muchHeavy red fir mistletoe infection is muchmore common than insignificant infectionmore common than insignificant infection

Where there is heavy mistletoe infection there is alsoWhere there is heavy mistletoe infection there is alsoCytospora, many dead trees, dead or broken topsCytospora, many dead trees, dead or broken tops

heavy CWM, likely Annosus and possibly fir engraverheavy CWM, likely Annosus and possibly fir engraver

MISTLETOE!!!MISTLETOE!!!