sparrow watershed modeling of the entire great lakes basin iaglr conference, mcmaster university may...
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SPARROW Watershed Modeling of the Entire Great Lakes Basin
IAGLR Conference, McMaster UniversityMay 29, [email protected] (608) 821-3867
By Dale M. Robertson1,
D.A. Saad1, G.A. Benoy2, W. Jenkinson3, and C.M. Johnston4
1 U.S. Geological Survey, Wis. WSC2 International Joint Commission
3 National Research Council of Canada4 U.S. Geological Survey, NH/VT WSC
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Pelee Island, Lake Erie Manitowoc, Lake Michigan
Eutrophication Issues in the Great Lakes
Lake Erie
Cladophora on Beaches
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Delavan Lake, Wisconsin
The Importance of Nutrient Loading to Lakes is Well KnownAnd several models available for smaller systems
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Goals of SPARROW Modeling for the Great Lakes Basin:
1. Determine P and N loading over the entire basin (large spatial scale).
2. Determine where are the main contributing basins(Rank all contributing basins based on loads and yields).
3. Determine what are the main causes of the high loads (Describe the relative importance of nutrient sources).
4. Provide information to various regional organizations to support regional interpretation and guide local, more in-depth studies.
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Pastureland runoff
Pastureland runoff
Cultivated land runoff
Cultivated land runoff
Atmospheric deposition
Atmospheric deposition
Urban runoffUrban runoff
Wastewater discharge
Wastewater discharge
Land to water Land to water delivery
delivery
MonitoringMonitoringstationstation
Grabhorn StudiosGrabhorn Studios
Forested land runoff
Forested land runoff
Flux
Flux
out
Flux
out
Flux inFlux in
Flux out = – Instream Decay Flux in + ( Sources x Delivery)Target =
Instream transport Instream transport and decayand decay
s D I
SPARROW: SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed Attributes Watershed Model
ss
DD
II
Mass Balance Modeling
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Original Upper Midwest (U.S.) SPARROW ModelOriginal Upper Midwest (U.S.) SPARROW Model
One Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kgOne Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil PermeabilityOne Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability
River Network – RF1River Network – RF1 Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites Long-term detrended Loads for 810 sites
Calibration
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Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg km-2)0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Total Phosphorus Yields(kg km-2)0 – 1213 - 1718 - 2525 - 3334 - 4142 - 5152 - 6465 - 8384 - 114115 - 10001001 – 2,980
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Distribution in Incremental Phosphorus Yields
Robertson and Saad, 2011
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Phosphorus Yields from the U.S. Portion of the Basins by SourceRobertson and Saad, 2011
0
20
40
60
80
Superior Michigan Huron Erie Ontario
TO
TA
L D
EL
IVE
RE
D Y
IEL
D,
KG
/KM
2Forested areas
Manure (unconfined)
Manure (confined)
Fertilizers (farm)
Urban areas
Point Sources
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St. LouisSt. Louis
FoxFox
OntonagonOntonagon
MaumeeMaumee
SaginawSaginaw
GrandGrand
St. JosephSt. Joseph
OswegoOswego
GeneseeGenesee
Sagina
w Bay
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Prioritizing/Ranking TributariesBy Yield
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Major Criticisms of Past SPARROW Modeling
1.Only part (U.S. side) of the watersheds have been modeled.
2. Spatial extent rather crude – ~HUC 11, ~100 km2
3. Interbasin transfers and direct deposition were not included
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0
20
40
60
80
Superior Michigan Huron Erie Ontario
TO
TA
L D
EL
IVE
RE
D Y
IEL
D,
KG
/KM
2
Forested areas
Manure (unconfined)
Manure (confined)
Fertilizers (farm)
Urban areas
Point Sources
65% 67%
30%
44%
0%
Percent of the Watersheds that were not Modeled
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Feb 24-25, 2014Windsor, ON
Mid-Continent SPARROW Models for P and NMid-Continent SPARROW Models for P and N
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SPARROW Input Information
NUTRIENT SOURCES (Base Year -2002)
•Point sources and other urban contributions
•Atmos. N deposition – (CMAQ)•Farm fertilizer use allocated to
major crops
•N2 fixation – cultivated lands
•Animal manure•Natural and residual sources
(lands in forest, barren, shrub)
AQUATIC ATTENUATION•Streams
– First-order decay ~ f(water travel time)
•Reservoirs– First-order decay ~ f(areal
hydraulic load)
LAND-TO-WATER DELIVERY•Climate (precipitation,
temperature)•Soils (permeability)•Topography/subsurface (slope,
specific catchment area)•Artificial drainage (tiles,
ditches, new ARSC coverage)
NUTRIENT Load Sites •U.S. - NAWQA•Canada
Streamflow Network •U.S. – NHD NAWQA•Canada - NHN
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International QW modeling team:Project lead and principal investigators
• Glenn Benoy – IJC - Ottawa
• Dale Robertson – USGS - Wisconsin
• Wayne Jenkinson – National Research Council – Ottawa
Other PIs:
• David Saad – USGS
• Craig Johnston – USGS
• Mike Laitta – IJC – Washington D.C.
• Erika Klyszejko – Environment Canada
• Martin Serrer – National Research Council – Ottawa
• Richard Burcher – National Research Council – Ottawa
• John Gaiot – Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources
• Jason Vanrobaeys – AAFC
• Rich Moore – USGS
• Pete Steeves – USGS
Data Providers:
• Aaron Todd & Georgina Kaltenecker – Ontario Ministry of the Environment
• Conrad Wyrzykowski – AAFC
• Pam Minifie – Saskatchewan Environment
• Mark Henry – Statistics Canada
• Susan Collins – National Research Council – Ottawa
• Elaine Page – Manitoba Water Stewardship
• O. S. (Arasu) Thirunavukkarasu –Saskatchewan Environment
• Antonette Arvai – IJC – Windsor
• Craig McCrimmon & Tim Pascoe – Environment Canada
Mid-Continental SPARROW Models
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Delivered Incremental Phosphorus Yield (kg/ha)
Total Phosphorus
Binational Red/Assiniboine
SPARROW Models
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Potential Load Sites for Model Development
U.S. SiteCanadian Site
Streamflow – Environment CanadaWater Quality – PWQMN and MCWS
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Ontario NHN Stream Network for the Great Lakes in Canada
1.1 million reaches reduced to 188,535
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Harmonizing data in Canada with NHDPlus with border rivers
Pigeon River
St. Marys River
St Clair RiverLake St Clair Detroit River
Niagara RiverSt Lawrence River
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2020
Final Catchment Grid for the Great Lakes Stream Network
Nutrient Inputs and Environmental Characteristics of ALL basins
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Describing Nutrient Inputs (fertilizers, manure, fixation)
Fertilizer Sales, Animals, Crop types
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Wastewater Treatment Plant Effluent
Ontario Ministry of the EnvironmentOntario Clean Water AgencyMissing Areas based on Population
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Mid-Continental SPARROW ModelMid-Continental SPARROW ModelOne Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kgOne Source: 2002 Farm Fertilizer TP inputs, kg One Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil PermeabilityOne Land-to-Water Delivery: Soil Permeability
River Network – NHD/NHNRiver Network – NHD/NHN Long-term detrended Loads for ~1200 sites Long-term detrended Loads for ~1200 sites
Calibration
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0
20
40
60
80
Superior Michigan Huron Erie Ontario
TO
TA
L D
EL
IVE
RE
D Y
IEL
D,
KG
/KM
2
Forested areas
Manure (unconfined)
Manure (confined)
Fertilizers (farm)
Urban areas
Point Sources
+65%
+0%
+67%
+30%
+44%
Complete Basins to be modeled
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St. LouisSt. Louis
FoxFox
OntonagonOntonagon
MaumeeMaumee
SaginawSaginaw
GrandGrand
St. JosephSt. Joseph
OswegoOswego
GeneseeGenesee
Sagina
w Bay
Superior
Huron
Mic
higa
n
Erie
Ontario
Prioritizing/Ranking TributariesBy Yield
All Tributaries to be ranked
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Online Mapping and Scenario Testing Tools will be Created
1. SPARROW Mapper – Easy and simple way to get SPARROW results, especially by hydrologic and political boundaries.
2. Decision Support System Scientists/Managers – Capable of using to visualize SPARROW output and run various scenarios.
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NAWQA SPARROW Modeling
2012 SPARROW Models
Robertson & Saad, WI
RF1 (HUC11) > NHD Plus Scale(1:100,000) (HUC14)2002 Inputs > 2012 Inputs
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Predicting Future Phosphorus Loading to the Great Lakes
HydroSPARROW: A GIS Regional Modeling Approach for Estimating Nutrient Loading to the Great Lakes Under Current and Future Climate and Land-Use Conditions
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HydroSPARROW
Total P and Total NConcentrations by Reach Streamflow by reach
SPARROW
Total P and Total NLoads
Loads/Yields
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Forested land (103 km2)
Agricultural land (103 km2)
Urban land area (103 km2)
Population (106)
Predicted change in population and land use in basin
Projected Changes in Population and Land Use
Predicting Future Nutrient Loading with Changing Land Use
Used to estimate changes in Nutrient Inputs
LaBeau et al., In Review
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Change in P loads (% Change) by watershed in 2040 for BioFuels Future Scenario
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Predicting the Effects of Climate Change
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Streamflow by RF1 reach
PRMS(Christiansen and others)
Total P and Total NConcentrations by Reach
SPARROW
Forecasting Future Nutrient Loading with Changing Climate
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Air Temperature
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1981-2000 2046-2065 2081-2100
Ch
ang
e in
Air
Tem
per
atu
re,
C
CGM3-A1BCNRM-A1BCSIRO-A1BGFDL-A1BGISS-A1BMIUB-A1BMPI-A1BMRI-A1BCGM3-A2CNRM-A2CSIRO-A2GFDL-A2GISS-A2MIUB-A2MPI-A2MRI-A2CGM3-B1CNRM-B1CSIRO-B1GFDL-B1GISS-B1MIUB-B1MPI-B1MRI-B1Average
Precipitation
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
1981-2000 2046-2065 2081-2100
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in P
reci
pit
atio
n
Streamflow
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
1981-2000 2046-2065 2081-2100
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in S
trea
mfl
ow
Predicting Future Changes in Nutrient Loading
PRMSPhosphorus Load
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
1981-2000 2046-2065 2081-2100
Per
cen
tag
e C
han
ge
in P
ho
sph
oru
s L
oad
HydroSPARROW
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Air Temperature
Precipitation
StreamflowPhosphorus Loading
Projected Changes (average) by 2046-2065
Average of 8 models and 3 carbon emission scenarios
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Dale M. [email protected] (608) 821-3867
Questions??
SPARROW Watershed Modeling of the Entire Great Lakes Basin