SPACE WEATHER RESEARCH IN THE UNITED

STATES Presented at WSEF2002, Adelaide, Australia

Dr. Paul BellaireProgram Manager, Space Sciences

Air Force Office of Scientific ResearchAir Force Research Laboratory

Click on Image to Begin Animation

Approved for Public Release – Distribution Unlimited

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Caused by the Solar Eruption and Geomagnetic Storm of March 1989

Lost Imagery &

Data on GOES-7

7 Commercial SatellitesRequired 177 Manual Operator Interventions

Worldwide HF Radio Blackouts; Satellite Control Interference

Permanent Loss of 50% of Command

Circuitry on Japanese Comm. Satellite

Memory Upsets on TDRSS & INTELSAT

9-Hour Canadian Power Outage Affected 6 Million People

LORAN Navigation Problems & Compass

Alignment Errors

Examples of Space Weather Effects

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What is Space Weather (SPWX)?

Conditions On The Sun And In The Solar Wind, Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, And Thermosphere That Can Influence The Performance

And Reliability Of Space-Borne And Ground-Based Technological Systems, As Well As Endanger Human Life And Health

- US National Space Weather Program (NSWP) Terms Of Reference, 1998

ALTITUDEALTITUDE(KM)(KM)

— — 10,000 —10,000 —

— — 1,000 —1,000 —

— — 100 —100 —

— — 10 —10 —

PHENOMENAPHENOMENA RELEVANCERELEVANCE

MANNED MANNED SPACECRAFT & SPACECRAFT & SATELLITE SATELLITE OPERATIONSOPERATIONS

NAVIGATIONNAVIGATION

COMMUNICATIONSCOMMUNICATIONS

AVIONICSAVIONICS

AIRCREW & AIRCREW & PASSENGER PASSENGER

RADIATION EXPOSURERADIATION EXPOSURE

WIRELESS NETWORKSWIRELESS NETWORKS

POWER GRIDSPOWER GRIDS

H+

e-

e-

e-

O+

O+

IONOSPHERE IONOSPHERE

SOLAR ACTIVITY(HELIOSPHERE)

SOLAR ACTIVITY(HELIOSPHERE)

DOMAINDOMAIN

MAGNETOSPHEREMAGNETOSPHERE

THERMOSPHERETHERMOSPHERE

ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATIONELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION

ENERGETIC CHARGED ENERGETIC CHARGED PARTICLESPARTICLES

GEOMAGNETIC STORMSGEOMAGNETIC STORMS

CHARGED PARTICLE CURRENTSCHARGED PARTICLE CURRENTS

ELECTRON DENSITYELECTRON DENSITY

SCINTILLATIONSCINTILLATION

NEUTRAL DENSITYNEUTRAL DENSITY

AURORAAURORA

SOLAR RADIO FREQUENCY SOLAR RADIO FREQUENCY INTERFERENCEINTERFERENCE

GROUND INDUCED CURRENTSGROUND INDUCED CURRENTS

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends

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US National Space Weather Program

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends

http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/nswp-ip/tableofcontents.htm

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US Government Basic Research Partnerships in Space Weather

NOAA SEC

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends

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http://lws.gsfc.nasa.gov

NASA Space Weather Research: Living With a Star

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Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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The CCMC: An InnovativeMulti-agency Collaboration

US academic and government researchers now have a new Space Weather Modeling facility at Goddard Space Flight Center, Maryland The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

for space weather is an innovative multi-agency collaboration aimed at improving operational space weather forecasting

First modeling transition made to space operations in late 2001

http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov

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Description ofSPWX

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The CCMC:Initial Transition Products

Simulation of the solar wind shock event of 6 Nov 2001 using the Michigan “BATSRUS” model

Click on image to begin animation

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends

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NSF Science & Technology Center for Space Weather

http://www.bu.edu/cism

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Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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10http://www.shinegroup.org

NSF Space Weather Research in Solar & Heliospheric Physics

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Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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NSF Space Weather Research in Magnetospheric Physics

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends

http://www-ssc.igpp.ucla.edu/gem11

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NSF Space Weather Research in Aeronomy & Ionospheric Physics

http://cedarweb.hao.ucar.edu

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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Joint AFOSR-NSF research in astronomy and ionospheric physics with the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope at AF Maui Optical & Supercomputing (AMOS) site in Hawaii The Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope helps

the USAF develop space technologies

Using lidars, radars, and all-sky imagers with the AEOS telescope, researchers study the physics & dynamics of the atmosphere at the edge of space

AEOS: A CollaborationWith the NSF

http://ulua.mhpcc.af.mil

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Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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AEOS Research at theEdge of Space – Maui MALT

MALT = “Mesosphere And Lower Thermosphere” MALT uses lidar technology and the AEOS telescope to obtain profiles of winds, temperatures, and densities near 100km altitude MALT enhances current global observing systems and provides data for improved forecasting of upper atmospheric turbulence and space weather, as well as for basic research in ionospheric physics

http://conrad.csl.uiuc.edu/Research/Maui 

Lidar Illuminating a

Leonid Meteor Trail

Time Lapse of Lidar Beam Slewing at a New Mexico Observatory

Turbulence at the Mesopause

Justification

Description ofSPWX

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PreliminaryMALT Research Results

Click on each image to begin

animation

Sodium Density Temperature

Winds

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Two New Multidisciplinary University Research Initiatives (MURIs) Started in 2001

PI: Dr. George Fisher

UC Berkeley

9-University Team

PI: Dr. Tamas Gombosi

University of Michigan

6-University Team

“Understanding

Magnetic Eruptions

On the Sun and Their

Interplanetary

Consequences”

“Comprehensive Solar-Terrestrial Environment Model (COSTEM)

for Space Weather Predictions”http://csem.engin.umich.edu/

http://solarmuri.ssl.berkeley.edu/index.htmlJustification

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Early MURI Results New Spacecraft Managed by Berkeley Team

MURI WILL LEVERAGE SOLAR PHYSICS OBSERVATIONS WITH RHESSI

RHESSI will offer solar physicists several firsts: (1) the first ever X-ray and gamma-ray images of flares from 100 keV to 20 MeV; (2) the first ever nuclear gamma-ray line

spectroscopy of solar flares; (3) RHESSI will image flares in X-rays with an angular resolution of 2 arcseconds, a factor of three better than previously possible; and (4)

RHESSI will measure X-ray and gamma-ray spectra with less than 1 keV energy resolution, a factor of 20-40 better than previously possible with scintillation counters. 17

MODELS WILL BE COMPARED TO GROUND- & SPACE-BASED DATA

The left panel shows a twisted magnetic field loop configuration, computed using anelastic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of solar magnetic flux, emerging through the photosphere and corona (red box). The expanded blue loops at the top of the figure and

the four gray-scale panels show computed coronal field line morphology emerging.

The red-green-yellow figure on the right shows modeled field lines (black) and coronal holes (red for positive polarity and green for negative). As an active region emerges, the

coronal hole extends further toward low latitudes. Some previous open areas (red & green) become closed (yellow), and field line connections change. 18

Early MURI Results New Solar Physics Simulations by Berkeley Team

GENERATION OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) BY FLUX-ROPE ERUPTION

At t=0, the Gibson-Low (1998) analytic expression for an erupting flux rope is superimposed on a 3D quiet solar wind solution. The interaction of the flux eruption with the background solar wind is calculated with BATSRUS. At

t=4hr, the CME expanded to ~25 solar radii (25 Rs) and propagated with

superalfvenic speed in the background plasma. By this time, the driving plasma “piston” formed a shock, a magnetic loop, and a density cavity.

Early MURI Results Adaptive Mesh MHD Modeling at Michigan

t=0 t=4hr

“Flux Rope”

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SIMULATION OF A CMEClick on image to begin animation

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Early MURI Results Adaptive Mesh MHD Modeling at Michigan

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• GAIM is Based on First Principles Physics

• Exploits Multiple Data Sources

– GPS, UV, In-situ Satellite Measurements,

Digisondes, CIT, Occultation

• 3-D Time-Dependent Parameters in Ionosphere

– NO+, O2+, N2

+, O+, Te, Ti

• Uses an Adaptive Grid System

– Global, Regional, & Localized; 90-1600 km

• Incorporates a Plasmasphere Model

– H+ Modeled for Altitudes 1600 – 30,000 km

1999 MURI Approaching Maturity USU-USC Global Assimilating Ionospheric Model (GAIM)

Computerized Ionospheric

Tomography (CIT)

Adaptive Model

Grid

http://gaim.cass.usu.edu/GAIM/htdocs/teamgaim.html

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An International Collaboration: SMEI (Solar Mass Ejection Imager)

• SMEI will image the entire sky in white light once per spacecraft orbit, using baffled camera components with charge couple device (CCD) sensors.

• By tracking CMEs from the Sun to Earth, SMEI will make possible accurate 24- to 72-hour forecasts of geomagnetic storms

• SMEI will be launched into a sun-synchronous (830 km) orbit as part of the USAF Space Test Program's Coriolis Mission in 2003

SMEI DESIGNJustification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

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COSMIC: A Multi-agency and International Collaboration

COSMIC = “Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate,” a U.S.- Taiwan joint project to build 6 microsatellites for radio occultation observations, with launch in 2005 COSMIC will provide more than 3,000 GPS radio signal occultation limb soundings per day, globally and in all weather COSMIC will enhance current global observing systems and provide much needed data for improved forecasting of space weather, and for basic research in ionospheric physics, meteorology, and climatology Partners include the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and Taiwan’s National Space Program Office (NSPO)

http://www.cosmic.ucar.edu/index.html

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World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER)

ADELAIDE CITY SKYLINE

WISER, with HQ at Adelaide University in South Australia, is an international network of Centers of Excellence. WISER is dedicated

to promote collaboration in cutting-edge space environment research and in training of first-rate space scientists. Emphasis is placed on theoretical and computational studies of space plasmas and atmospheres, space data analysis, space weather forecasting,

and monitoring the impact of space weather on the Earth's environment and technology.

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Future USSpace Weather Activity

• Continue reaching out to foreign partners and leveraging the space weather research programs of Europe, Asia, and the Pacific Rim

The European Space Agency is following US footsteps in space weather forecasting, large investments are being made NASA is developing an international component to their Living With a Star program, particularly with ESA Australia, Japan, Russia, Chile, Peru, Brazil, and other countries are taking the lead in space research around the Pacific, with Australia hosting the “World Institute for Space Environment Research (WISER)”

• Support the development of the US Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST), the replacement for the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak, Arizona and Sacramento Peak, New Mexico

• Expand space weather observation facilities at AEOS on Maui and at other sites worldwide, to include advanced lidars, all-sky cameras, Fabry-Perot interferometers, adaptive optics, and new radars

• Leverage the NSF’s Center for Adaptive Optics, the new NSF Space Weather Science and Technology Center, and new ground-based and space-based observation systems to ensure the development of next generation optical sensors and space environment models

Justification

Description ofSPWX

Partnering &Research Results

Future Trends