space weather impacts and some schemes for thinking about them

Space Weather ImpactsSpace Weather Impactsand Some Schemes for and Some Schemes for Thinking About ThemThinking About Them

Delores KnippDelores Knipp

Department of Physics, USAF AcademyDepartment of Physics, USAF AcademySignificant Contributions from Space Weather ColleaguesSignificant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues

Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and

Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)

Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005

Framework(s) for ImpactsFramework(s) for Impacts

HeliocentricHeliocentric Solar EmissionsSolar Emissions

User-centricUser-centric Who cares?Who cares?

GeocentricGeocentric Where on Earth?Where on Earth?

Signals and SystemsSignals and Systems

Space Weather vs Space Weather vs Space EnvironmentSpace Environment


ElectromagneticRadiation

ARRIVAL: 8 minDURATION: 1-2 HOURS

EFFECTS

B Field/ Plasma

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYSDURATION: DAYS

EFFECTS

High EnergyCharged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURSDURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

Heliocentric--Solar EmissionsHeliocentric--Solar Emissions


Enhanced Electromagnetic

RadiationARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATCOM INTERFERENCE• RADAR INTERFERENCE• IMAGE INTERFERENCE

EFFECTS

Enhanced B Field/ Plasma Clouds


EFFECTS



EFFECTS

Disturbed Solar EmissionsDisturbed Solar Emissions

Flares

Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 Courtesy Lockheed Martin


Enhanced Electromagnetic


DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

EFFECTS



EFFECTS



EFFECTS


• HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATELLITE DISORIENTATION• SPACECRAFT DAMAGE• FALSE SENSOR READINGS• LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE• RADIATION EXPOSURE

EFFECTS

Flares Mass Ejections


EnhancedElectromagnetic


DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

EFFECTS



• HF RADIO BLACKOUT• SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY• RADAR FALSE TARGETS• SATCOM INTERFERENCE• POWER GRID DISTURBANCES

EFFECTS



EFFECTS


Helicity/Mass Ejections


ElectromagneticRadiation

ARRIVAL: 8 minDURATION: 1-2 HOURS

MONITORS

B Field/ Plasma


MONITORS



MONITORS

Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?


Military Civil

SIGNALEFFECTS

User-centric—Who Cares?User-centric—Who Cares?

Scintillations

Navigation/Communications

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Ionospheric Currents

Ground Induced Currents

Electron Density Profiles—Comm and NavNeutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite DragSpace Radiation—System and Human Exposure

Dual

National and International Level

Users


Orbital GroundSub-orbital

SIGNALEFFECTS

Geocentric—Where on Earth?Geocentric—Where on Earth?

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow

SPACE WEATHER

SPACE ENVIRONMENT


Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit Earth Orbit

BEO

ACE, SOHO

POLAR

GOES

POESGPS



SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow


SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1%

BEO--Beyond Earth OrbitBEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)



SYSTEMEFFECTS

Energetic Particles-DEEP Space MissionsEnergetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions

Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover.

Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered.

SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km.

Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered.

Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered.

Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter's star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms



SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow

Edge of Space


Space and Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage

GEO, HEO, MEO

Impacts Categorized by Region

Magnetic Field Anomalies• Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in

Earths northward directed field• During extreme magnetopause compression the

satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations.

GEO, HEO, MEO

GEO, HEO and MEOGEO, HEO and MEO


GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly EccentricGEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit Earth Orbit

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations.

GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity.

Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out.

TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock.



Put SAMPEX Data Here

CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4%

Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations


Energetic Electrons in the Energetic Electrons in the Radiation BeltsRadiation Belts

Put SAMPEX Data Here


GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly EccentricGEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit Earth Orbit

SYSTEMEFFECTS

High Speed High Speed Solar Wind Solar Wind and “Killer Electrons”and “Killer Electrons”

Courtesy Dan Baker



SYSTEMEFFECTS

Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO)Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO)


C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)



SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow

Edge of Space


Space and Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage

Thermospheric Hazards• Satellite Drag• Atomic Oxygen Damage

Radiation Belts

LEO


Sun-Atmosphere

LEO--Low Earth OrbitLEO--Low Earth Orbit



SYSTEMEFFECTS

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system.

CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the October-November activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01.

NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned.

Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29).

UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity.




SYSTEMEFFECTS

Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station ImpactsOct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts

Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument.

*Information from NOAA

SEC Service Assessment of

Intense Space Weather Storms

370

375

380

385

390

395

400

30-S

ep-2

003

7-Oct-

2003

14-O

ct-20

03

21-O

ct-20

03

28-O

ct-20

03

4-Nov

-200

3

11-N

ov-2

003

18-N

ov-2

003

25-N

ov-2

003

2-Dec

-200

3

9-Dec

-200

3

Date/Time (UTC)

Alt

(km

)

ISS Alttitude Before Event

ISS Altitude During Event

ISS Altitude After Event

ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag

Courtesy of NASA


Atomic Oxygen reactions with surfaces on theISS (Courtesy NASA)

Samples exposed on LDEF

Space Environment--Low Earth OrbitSpace Environment--Low Earth Orbit


Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact

Space Environment--Low Earth OrbitSpace Environment--Low Earth Orbit

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids DuringCollisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During


Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.

Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly



SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow

Edge of Space

Atmo-spheric


Radiation Belt Impacts• Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly • Chemistry Changes

Ionospheric Impacts• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization• HF propagation• Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles

Direct Solar Impacts X-ray and EUV changes

to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles

Low and Mid Latitude

Ionosphere

Auroral And Polar Region

Auroral Region Impacts• Auroral Clutter• False Radar Detection• Communication Outages


Ionosphere Ionosphere


MUF

LUF

MUF

LUF

Space Environment-- Ionosphere Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio CommunicationsRadio Communications

Absorption Refraction Scattering Transmission


Useable Frequency Changes with Local TimeUseable Frequency Changes with Local Time

Undisturbed Ionosphere

ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATIONHF RADIO BLACKOUT

HF RADIOWAVE NORMAL

CONDITIONS

D

E

F

NORMAL CONDITIONSNORMAL CONDITIONS

Space Environment-- Ionosphere Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio CommunicationsRadio Communications


Space Weather Ionospheric HF CommunicationsSpace Weather Ionospheric HF Communications

Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar FlaresUseable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares


SATCOM

AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

GPS

PLASMA BUBBLES

GPS SATCOM

MAGNETICEQUATOR

DAY NIGHT

EQUATORIAL F LAYERANOMALIES

SBR

POLAR CAPPATCHES

Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM CommunicationsSATCOM Communications

Image from S Basu, AFRL


High Latitude Ionospheric HF CommunicationsHigh Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications

SIGNALSEFFECTS

Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication OutageOct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage

The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program.

MacRelay experienced over 130 hours of HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans.



Mid and Low-Latitude-IonosphereMid and Low-Latitude-IonosphereSIGNALEFFECTS

Oct-Nov Total Electron Content VariationsOct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations



Scintillations--Low-Latitude-IonosphereScintillations--Low-Latitude-IonosphereSIGNALEFFECTS


Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data

Equatorial F-region -IonosphereEquatorial F-region -Ionosphere



SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

HighMid-LatitudeLow

Atmo-spheric


Strato, Tropo SpheresStrato, Tropo Spheres

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Faculae increase UV solar output


Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial CollegeClimate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College

• Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles

• This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions

•In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies.

•Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards.

•Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies.

Solar UV Climate ConnectionSolar UV Climate Connection


Strato, Tropo SpheresStrato, Tropo Spheres

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003




SIGNALEFFECTS


BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

SYSTEMEFFECTS

HighMid-LatitudeLow

Atmo-spheric

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide


SATCOM

AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

GPS

PLASMA BUBBLES

GPS SATCOM

MAGNETICEQUATOR

DAY NIGHT

EQUATORIAL F LAYERANOMALIES

SBR

POLAR CAPPATCHES

Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM CommunicationsSATCOM Communications

Image from S Basu, AFRL


Over a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routedOver a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routed

Polar Communications OutagesPolar Communications Outages


Sun in Field of ViewSun in Field of View

Mid-latitude Mid-latitude Radio Sun EchoesRadio Sun Echoes

Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares)

Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes

Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005Delores Knipp Space Weather Colloquium ASP 2005 IMAGE Far UV Oct 29 2003


Power Distribution ConcernsPower Distribution Concerns

Power companies in North America experienced some problems. Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware.

Impacts and actions reported:

•Less use and switching between systems;•High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country; •Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible);•Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented; •‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down.

GIC impacts were more significant in

•Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions.

•South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced


SummarySummary

Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti


THE END!


Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• HF propagation• Satellite Drag

Direct Solar Hazards• Radio, optical and X-

ray interference• Solar energetic particle

degradation and clutter

Imapcts Categorized by Region


Radiation Belt Hazards• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal charging / discharging• Human tissue damage

Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• Surveillance clutter• HF propagation• Satellite Drag

Direct Solar Hazards• Radio, optical and X-

ray interference• Solar energetic particle

degradation and clutter

Radiation Belts

Ionosphere

Auroral Region

Auroral Region Hazards• Auroral Clutter• False Radar Detection

Hazards Categorized by Region

space weather impacts and some schemes for thinking about them

Documents

low earth orbitbeoace

space weather impactsand

severe radiation storm

human exposuredualnational

safe mode

net loss

week period

marie instrument