space weather forecast models from the center for integrated space weather modeling the solar wind...
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Space Weather Forecast Models from theCenter for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
The Solar Wind Forecast Model
Carrington Rotation 1896 Carrington Rotation 2000
Product: Heliospheric Tomography
Probabilistic Geo-EffectivenessObserved climatology
300400500600700
Vel
(km
/s)
0
20
40
Den
(#/
cc)
05
1015
Bto
t (n
T)
-4-202
VB
z
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 40204060
Epoch (days)
3-hr
ap
0 20 40 60 80 10010
-3
10-2
10-1
100
3-hr ap (nT)
Pro
ba
bili
ty a
p>
ab
ciss
a
Probability That ap Will Exceed a Given Value
Days Relative to Interface
-3 to -1-1 to +1lowVhighV
Global Ambient Solar Wind: • erupted magnetic flux distribution• outward pressure due to hot corona• extended heating for fast wind• rotational interactions• commencing in SEC development environment in Spring 2007
Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • constitutes most of the solar wind• recurrent activity• path for CMEs, SEPs and Cosmic Radiation• carries “killer” electrons• onset, duration, and magnitude of “high speed stream” events• coupling with geospace models
The GeospaceForecast Model
Verification of Daily Solar Wind Model
CISMModel
Development
Val
idat
ion
Broad Scientific Usage, CCMC
Feedback
SE
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CISM Modelon SEC
developmentcomputer
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ates
op
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Mo
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s
CISM: 100% 70% 1% 0% SEC: 0% 30% 99% 100%
Implementation Effort:
V report PDR CDRs PRR
CISM Science to SEC OperationsModel Transition Process
The Planetary Equivalent Amplitude Forecast Model
1-7 Day Ap Time Series Prediction: • index constructed from North American ground- based magnetometers (same as USAF)• persistent, trend, recurrent features of observed Ap• “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (from ACE) • based on McPherron (1990) linear filter scheme• continuously running in SEC development environment since May 2004
Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • “end-of-day” summary of geomagnetic activity• alerts for geomagnetic activity watch levels• automated way of obtaining a forecast• quick outlook of anticipated geomagnetic activity• driver for other empirical methods (Kp, MSIS90)
3-24 Hour ap Time Series Prediction:• running index constructed as daily index but from 3-hour averages• persistence of latest ap measurement combined with “exogeneous” solar wind speed input (ACE)• continuously running in SEC development environment since October 2006
Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • short term outlook of effects due to quick changes in solar wind conditions• better 1-day forecast for Ap• probabilistic forecast of Ap/ap warning level crossings
Legend to Ap/ap forecast products: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 1-day predicted values grey stripe: 27-days of solar rotation colored lines: watch/warning levels Validation of Daily Ap
Daily Ap
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 day Time Intervals
PE
USAF
Autoregression
AR (70yrs)
Global Prediction Efficiencies (PE) for Daily Ap
Probabilities of Warning Thresholds for given predicted ap
Probabilistic Warning Levels
Products: Daily, 3-Hr, 24-Hr Indices
Global Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere:
• physics-based simulations of Earth’s space environment with coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere model• commencing in SEC development environment in Winter 2007/2008
Importance for Space Wx Forecasting: • specification of geomagnetic disturbance and characterization of the electro-jet• electron content of ionosphere• description of the neutral atmosphere density and wind• identification of magnetopause location• predictions and alerts for utility companies, telecommunications, and satellite operators
Legend to SW forecast product: blue bars: daily measured values black bars: 8-hour predicted values colored lines: watch/warning levels
Product: Solar Wind Parameters at L1