space exploration chain management & logistics workshop y...
TRANSCRIPT
Space ExplorationSpace ExplorationLogistics WorkshopLogistics Workshop
Prof. Olivier L. de [email protected]
Prof. David Simchi-Levi (MIT), Dr. RobertShishko (JPL), Andy Evans (USA), Joe
Parrish (PSI)
January 17, 2006Washington, D.C.
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures
Inte
rpla
neta
ry S
upp
ly
Chain Management & Log
istics A
rchite
cture
s
2005-2007
MIT
JPLUSA
PSI
Project OverviewProject Overview
Advanced Studies, Concepts and TechnologyProject Phase 1: April 27, 2005-April 30, 2006Sponsor: NASA ESMD (ESR&T)COTR: Dr. Martin Steele, NASA
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 2
Previous Space Exploration Paradigms
• Apollo Program– 6 Lunar Surface Missions
(1969-1972)– Each Mission self-
contained (no spacelogistics network)
– Carry-along allconsumables & supplies
• “backpack model”– Optimized for short-term
lunar stays ~ 3 days
• Space Shuttle & ISS– Shuttle Operations 1981-– ISS is a single facility at
LEO node (since 2000)– Logistics based on regular
re-supply• Shuttle• Progress/Soyuz• Planned: ATV, HTV
– Actual up and down masscapacity currently differentthan planned
“Carry-Along” “Scheduled Resupply”
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 3
Simple Graphs
Apollo
11 12 14 15 16 17
KSC
ISS
RSA KSC
ISS VSE LOPS1 S2
LLO
RSA ESA JAX KSC
MRSISS
LEO
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 4
The sustainable system is this …
PolicyExploration Value Delivery System
Scientific-Economic-Security
Exploration System
Flight Systems
Ground Systems
Implementing and
Building Training andSkill Development
Maintainingand
Supplying
Exploration Enterprise
Hardware Software
Humans
Hardware Software
Humans
Exploration Value Delivery SystemScientific-Economic-Security
Exploration System
Flight Systems
Ground Systems
Implementing and
Building Training andSkill Development
Maintainingand
Supplying
Exploration Enterprise
Hardware Software
Humans
Hardware Software
HumansCEV
Money
DeliveredValue
Risk
Sustainable Space Exploration
Consider Interplanetary Exploration as a Supply Chain Problem !
Not this
Crew ExplorationVehicle
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 5
What is an Interplanetary Supply Chain?
Network of material and informationflows to enable human/robotic spaceexploration: - nodes, arcs, elements (vehicles/modules)- crew, cargo - probabilistic supply/demand - pre-positioning, carry-along, re-supply - effects of ISRU - use of orbital & surface depots
Three domains:-Terrestrial-In-Space-Planetary Surfaces
Source
Sinks
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 6
Why is designing the ISCM challenging?• Three domains
– Earth, In-Space, Planetary Surfaces• Network characteristics
– Tradeoff between time-of-flight and mass (DV)– Time-varying arcs (mild for Moon, strong for Mars)– Discrete nature of mass flows/chunking of cargo– “small quantity logistics” (< 5 missions/year)– consumption rates uncertain, spares demand uncertain
• Multiple Levels of Nesting– Stacks– Elements (Modules)– Carriers– Cargo (Crew & Supplies)
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 7
Nomenclature Challenge• Pocket• Container• Carrier• Module• Segment• Compartment• Element• Pallet• Assembly• Facility*• Node• Vehicle
• Item• Drawer• Kit• Locker• Unit• Rack• Lab• Platform• MPLM• Payload Bay• Fairing
• Component• Subsystem• System• SRU• LRU• ORU• CTB• M-01• M-02• M-03
* In-Space Facility (e.g., the European Technology Exposure Facility (EuTEF)
Source: Martin Steele
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 8
Project GoalsTo help create a new discipline and field of studyTo help create a new discipline and field of studycalled called ““Interplanetary Supply Chain ManagementInterplanetary Supply Chain Management””as a critical enabler for sustainable spaceas a critical enabler for sustainable spaceexplorationexploration
1.1. By By developing an integrated capability for guiding thedeveloping an integrated capability for guiding thedevelopment of the interplanetary supply chaindevelopment of the interplanetary supply chain(nomenclature, methods & models, software tools, trade(nomenclature, methods & models, software tools, tradestudies)studies)
1.1. By By building of a community and the education ofbuilding of a community and the education ofprofessionals skilled in the art and science of spaceprofessionals skilled in the art and science of spacelogistics.logistics.(workshop, executive course, web forum, course(workshop, executive course, web forum, coursematerials)materials)
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 9
Impact•• Network LevelNetwork Level
– Help optimize crew & cargo flows for ISS/Moon/Mars campaignsbased on technical/economic Measures of Effectiveness (MOE)
– Provide quantitative analysis to help develop ExplorationSystems Supportability Strategy
•• Operational LevelOperational Level– Conceptualize information architecture for element, cargo asset
and crew tracking– Suggest opportunities for commercial space logistics providers:
help size market, example: fuel depot in LEO•• Element LevelElement Level
– Provide design recommendations for CEV (stowage, cargocapacity, internal arrangements) and CLV, HLLV
– Quantify effects of parts commonality and reconfigurability onsparing requirements and functional availability of elements
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 10
Project Development Approach
Project ManagementWBS 1.0
WBS 2.0Terrestrial
Supply Chain
Analogies
WBS 3.0Space LogisticsNetwork Model
WBS 4.0Exploration Supply& Demand Models
WBS 5.0InterplanetarySCM Trade
Studies
WBS 6.0Public
Education &Outreach
+
Civilian
Military
Space
Phase IDeliverables
Year 1
Phase IIDeliverables
Year 2
ReportHMP 2005
a-prototype softwareSpaceNet I
Space Logisticsevaluation of
11 CE&R architecturesand ESAS Architecture
Space LogisticsWorkshop I
SCM Short Course
b-version software =integrated space logisticsmodeling & simulation tool
SpaceNet II
In-depth tradestudy results
Workshop IIMIT OCW course
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 11
HMP 2005HMP 2005
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 12
HMP Expedition 2005
1. “Complete” Inventory of Research Base2. Transportation Network Analysis3. RFID Experiments (Agent and Asset Tracking)4. EVA Logistics (m logistics around camp)
- 56 researchers on site- 683 crew days total- 2300 items inventoried- over 400 items tagged-8 EVA’s observed
Cumulative Cargo Flow HMP 2005
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
0 2 4 6 810
12
14
16
18
19
21
23
25
27
Flight Number (according to log)
Ca
rgo
/Cre
w M
as
s [
lbs
]
cum in
cum out
cum at HMP
Comparison by Supply Class
(Full Data Set)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1. Propellants and Fuels
2. Crew Provisions
3. Crew Operations
4. Maintenance and Upkeep
5. Stowage and Restraint
6. Exploration and Research
7. Waste and Waste Disposal
8. Habitation and Infrastruc ture
9. Transportation and Carriers
10. Miscellaneous
Thousands
Total [kg]
Lunar Long Lunar Short .HMP Est HMP Ac tuals
Inventory:20,717 kg
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 13
Processes and Objects of Exploration
MediumLength
Missions(14-180 days)
ShortMissions
(< 14 days)
Long TermMissions
(>180 days)
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 14
Terrestrial Simulation/Optimization Tool: LogicNet
supply chain design: placewarehouses, consider potential w/hand manufacturing plants optimally,given customer distribution
supply chain analysis: estimatetransportation costs, availability, shippingtimes, inventory levels…
Can we create a similarly sophisticated planning environment for space logistics ?
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 15
• Initial Condition: Spacecraft Starts at LEO, Final Condition: LOI• Can find a family of trajectories with different ΔV and flight time• Time dependency severe for Mars (26 month launch windows)• Developed concept of Time-Expanded Networks for Space Logistics
-0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Units (Earth-Moon Distance)
Units (Earth-Moon Distance)
LEO - LLO1 Trajectory
Moon
Earth
EM-L1
3.3 3.35 3.4 3.45 3.5 3.55 3.6 3.65 3.7 3.75 3.8830
835
840
845
850
855
860
865
870
tf (Days)
!V at LLO (m/sec)
! V at LLO vs. Time of Flight
ΔV @ LEO around 3100 m/s
Time Dependency: LEO - LLO
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 16
SpaceNet Block Diagram (simplified)
User InputGUI
•Physical Nodes
•Astrodynamics
•Element Data
•Crew Data
•Supply/ Demand Data
• Scenario Data
Scenario Simulation
NetworkOptimization
Model
Supply/DemandModels
SimulationVisualization
Batch Mode NEXioM I/F SCMMoEs Tradespace
Visualization
CostModelIntegrated Database
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 17
SpaceNet Visualization
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 18
Accomplishments to date• Completed MIT HMP 2005 Expedition
– Gained real data and insights from field observation– Final report issued
• Space Logistics Lessons Learned– Extracted over 300 logistics lessons learned from past programs– Distilled down to top 7
• Network Modeling– Identified Time-Expanded Networks as key modeling concept
• Developed Integrated Space Logistics relational database– Based on functional Classes-of-Supply (COS)– Benchmarked against ISS & other organizations
• SpaceNet– Alpha prototype of space logistics discrete event network simulator– Provides visualization and output to assess Measures of
Effectiveness (MOE) and Exploration Operations Cost Model input
Interplanetary Supply Chain Management and Logistics Architectures 19
Current/Future Work• Further Develop Simulation Capability (SpaceNet)
– Create a range of scenarios (ESAS focused)– “What-If” Trade Space Analyses
• Implement Logistics MOEs• Demonstrate Optimization Capability
– Network Optimization, Bin Packing, Launch Scheduling, StackFormation working together
• Examine what are the key logistics strategies for NASA– Pre-positioning (where, what, how much?)– Carry-along, On-demand re-supply– Caching (orbital buffers/supplies – where, what, how much?)