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Corporate Finance Briefing: S&P vs. I/B/E/S Earnings Yardeni Research, Inc. June 4, 2021 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box

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  • Corporate Finance Briefing:S&P vs. I/B/E/S

    EarningsYardeni Research, Inc.

    June 4, 2021

    Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

    [email protected]

    Joe Abbott732-497-5306

    [email protected]

    Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

    thinking outside the box

  • Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

    June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

    S&P 500 Revenues 1S&P 500 Operating Earnings 2S&P 500 Profits Margin 3S&P 500 Earnings 4S&P 500 Margin 5-6S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings 7-10S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS 11S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference) 12S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS 13S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)14S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)15S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS 16S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) 17-18S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins19S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins20S&P 500 Write-Offs 21S&P 500 Trailing Earnings 22S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy 23S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues 24-29

  • 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    275

    300

    325

    350

    375400425450

    100

    125

    150

    175

    200

    225

    250

    275

    300

    325

    350

    375400425450

    S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)

    Q1

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 1.

    93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)

    Q1

    Latest (7.7)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 2.

    S&P 500 Revenues

    Page 1 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

    15

    25

    35

    45

    55

    65

    5

    15

    25

    35

    45

    55

    65

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(dollars, quarterly, nsa, ratio scale) Q1

    yardeni.com

    Latest (49.00)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 3.

    94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    -50

    -40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(yearly percent change)

    Q1

    Latest (47.9)

    * Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 4.

    S&P 500 Operating Earnings

    Page 2 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    500

    550

    Q1

    S&P 500 REVENUES & OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)

    Q1

    Revenues (358.1)

    Earnings (I/B/E/S) (49.0)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 5.

    93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(percent, quarterly)

    Q1

    Latest (13.7)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 6.

    S&P 500 Profits Margin

    Page 3 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 7.

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data(dollars, quarterly)

    Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating (49.00)

    S&P Operating (47.61)

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars) Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating (49.00)S&P Reported (47.34)

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (S&P data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars)

    Q1

    S&P Operating (47.61)S&P Reported (47.34)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Earnings

    Page 4 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 8.

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data(percent, quarterly) Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)S&P Operating (13.3)

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    18

    -12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    18

    S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/ES data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly) Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)S&P Reported (13.2)

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-12

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    -12

    -10

    -8

    -6

    -4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (S&P data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly) Q1

    S&P Operating (13.3)S&P Reported (13.2)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Margin

    Page 5 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Q1S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs I/B/E/S earnings data)(percent, quarterly)

    S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginI/B/E/S data (13.7)S&P data (13.3)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 9.

    94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    -12

    -9

    -6

    -3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    Q1S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (S&P reported vs I/B/E/S operating earnings data)(percent, quarterly)

    S&P 500 Profit MarginI/B/E/S operating data (13.7)S&P reported data (13.2)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 10.

    S&P 500 Margin

    Page 6 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50Q1S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data)

    (dollars, quarterly)

    Operating (S&P data) (47.6)Reported (S&P data) (47.3)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 11.

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    -25

    -20

    -15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS(S&P data)(dollars)

    Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating (49.0)S&P Reported (47.3)

    Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 12.

    S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings

    Page 7 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 13.

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    S&P 500 REVENUESPER SHARE

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2215

    65

    115

    165

    215

    HEALTH CARE Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2210

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2230

    50

    70

    90

    110

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250

    80

    110

    140

    170

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYQ1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225

    50

    75

    100

    125

    CONSUMER STAPLES Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225

    35

    45

    55

    65

    MATERIALSQ1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    175

    ENERGY

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    REAL ESTATE

    Q1

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    FINANCIALSQ1

    Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016

    Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings

    Page 8 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 14.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    S&P 500 OPERATINGEARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change)

    Q1

    (47.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-505101520253035

    HEALTH CAREQ1(26.4)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    COMMUNICATION SERVICESQ1

    (52.8)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100

    -75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    (-0.3)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75-50-25

    0255075

    100125150

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYQ1

    (141.2)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Q1

    (45.0)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1(10.3)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    0

    50

    100

    MATERIALS Q1

    (74.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    ENERGY

    Q1

    (18.4)

    Capped at 100% and -100%

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    REAL ESTATE Q1(28.0)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50-25

    0255075

    100125150175

    FINANCIALS Q1

    (138.8)

    Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    (-34.3)

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings

    Page 9 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 15.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    S&P 500 OPERATINGPROFIT MARGIN*

    (quarterly, percent) Q1

    (13.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 229.0

    9.5

    10.0

    10.5

    11.0

    11.5

    12.0

    HEALTH CARE Q1

    (11.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    6

    10

    14

    18

    22

    COMMUNICATIONSERVICES

    Q1

    (18.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    (6.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY

    Q1

    (8.1)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2216

    18

    20

    22

    24

    26

    INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

    Q1

    (24.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    8.5

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1(7.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    MATERIALSQ1

    (11.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-9-6-30369

    1215

    ENERGY

    Q1

    (4.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225

    30

    35

    40

    45

    REAL ESTATE Q1

    (42.1)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    FINANCIALS Q1

    (22.8)

    * Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    (9.4) yardeni.com

    S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings

    Page 10 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 16.

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    Q1S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE

    S&P Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20Q1HEALTH CARE

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1Q1

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    Q1

    INDUSTRIALS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Q1

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12

    -8

    -4

    0

    4

    8Q1MATERIALS

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    Q1

    ENERGY

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    Q1

    REAL ESTATE

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20Q1FINANCIALS

    Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    Q1UTILITIES

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS

    Page 11 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 17.

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60-40-20

    020406080

    100

    S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE

    Q1% difference betweenS&P Operating andReported EPS (0.6)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150

    HEALTH CARE

    Q1

    (8.9)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    Q1

    (-6.6)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    (-19.5)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    Q4

    (34.8)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    Q1

    (-2.2)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40-20

    020406080

    100120

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1

    (6.5)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    MATERIALS

    Q4

    (-8.9)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    ENERGY

    Q1

    (29.7)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60

    -40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    REAL ESTATE

    Q1

    (5.7)

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25

    0255075

    100125

    FINANCIALS

    Q1

    (3.7)

    Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

    02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125

    -75

    -25

    25

    75

    125

    175

    UTILITIES

    Q4

    (52.4)yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference)

    Page 12 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 18.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    S&P 500 EARNINGSPER SHARE Q1

    I/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Operating EPS

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226

    9

    12

    15

    18

    21

    24

    HEALTH CARE Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4

    -2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224

    6

    8

    10

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    MATERIALS Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    ENERGY

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    REAL ESTATE Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    FINANCIALS Q1

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS

    Page 13 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 19.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20-10

    01020304050607080

    Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS

    Percent DifferenceI/B/E/S vs S&P (2.9)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    Q1

    HEALTH CARE

    (17.2)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25

    0255075

    100

    Q1

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    (-2.9)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    Q1

    INDUSTRIALS

    (-0.5)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    Q1

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    (-0.1)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Q1

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    (9.7)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    Q1

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    (0.0)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    Q1

    MATERIALS

    (6.7)

    Capped at 80%

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q1

    ENERGY

    (8.4)

    Capped at 100% and -100%.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    150Q1REAL ESTATE

    (134.2)

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25

    0255075

    100

    Q1

    FINANCIALS

    (-10.1)

    Capped at -100%.

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    125

    Q1

    UTILITIES

    (-38.9)

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)

    Page 14 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 20.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60

    -30

    0

    30

    60

    90

    120

    150

    Q1

    S&P 500 Operating EPS (y/y %)I/B/E/S (47.9)S&P (144.2)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    Q1

    HEALTH CARE(26.4)(34.6)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-25

    0255075

    100

    Q1

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    (52.8)(75.0)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-80-60-40-200204060

    Q1

    INDUSTRIALS

    (-0.3)(49.1)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75-50-25

    0255075

    100125150175

    Q1CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    (141.2)(158.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    (45.0)(49.7)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    Q1

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    (10.3)(9.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-250255075100125150

    Q1

    MATERIALS(74.5)(78.0)

    Capped at 100%.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q1

    ENERGY

    (18.4)(100.0)

    Capped at 100% and -100%

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    Q1REAL ESTATE

    (28.0)(-9.7)

    Capped at 30% and -30%.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-120-90-60-30

    0306090

    120Q1FINANCIALS

    (100.0)(100.0)

    Capped at 100% and -100%

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    Q1

    UTILITIES

    (-34.3)(36.2)

    Capped at -50% and 50%.

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)

    Page 15 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 21.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHAREQ1

    I/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    HEALTH CARE Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    COMMUNICATIONSERVICES

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2202468

    10121416

    CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    CONSUMER STAPLES Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1012345678

    MATERIALS Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    ENERGY

    Q1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    REAL ESTATEQ1

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    15

    FINANCIALS Q1

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS

    Page 16 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 22.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40

    -20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    S&P 500 OPERATINGEARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change)

    Q1

    (47.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-505101520253035

    HEALTH CAREQ1(26.4)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    100

    COMMUNICATION SERVICESQ1

    (52.8)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100

    -75

    -50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    (-0.3)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75-50-25

    0255075

    100125150

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYQ1

    (141.2)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Q1

    (45.0)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1(10.3)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50

    0

    50

    100

    MATERIALS Q1

    (74.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    ENERGY

    Q1

    (18.4)

    Capped at 100% and -100%

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    REAL ESTATE Q1(28.0)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50-25

    0255075

    100125150175

    FINANCIALS Q1

    (138.8)

    Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    (-34.3)

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)

    Page 17 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 23.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change in 4-quarter sum)

    (-0.2)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    Q1

    HEALTH CARE(12.9)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-45

    -30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    Q1

    COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    (11.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60

    -45

    -30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    Q1

    INDUSTRIALS

    (-46.5)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    Q1

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    (-8.0)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    Q1

    INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    (18.2)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Q1

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    (4.7)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50

    -25

    0

    25

    50

    75

    Q1

    MATERIALS

    (25.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150

    -100

    -50

    0

    50

    100

    150

    Q1

    ENERGY

    (-100.0)

    Capped at 100% and -100%

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    Q1

    REAL ESTATE(1.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30

    -15

    0

    15

    30

    45

    60

    Q1

    FINANCIALS

    (15.0)

    Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    Q1

    UTILITIES(-8.1)

    yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)

    Page 18 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 24.

    95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 234

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    Q1

    S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN*(trailing 4-quarter, percent)

    (11.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229.0

    9.5

    10.0

    10.5

    11.0Q1HEALTH CARE

    (10.8)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Q1COMMUNICATION SERVICES

    (16.2)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    Q1

    INDUSTRIALS

    (5.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    Q1

    CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

    (6.2)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202216

    18

    20

    22

    24

    Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

    (22.9)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226.0

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    Q1CONSUMER STAPLES

    (7.6)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    Q1MATERIALS

    (10.1)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    Q1

    ENERGY

    (-0.5)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202226

    28

    30

    32

    Q1

    REAL ESTATE

    (30.5)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    Q1FINANCIALS

    (15.6)

    * Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229

    10

    11

    12

    13

    14

    15

    Q1

    UTILITIES

    (13.2) yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins

    Page 19 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 25.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    S&P 500 OPERATINGPROFIT MARGIN*

    (quarterly, percent) Q1

    (13.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 229.0

    9.5

    10.0

    10.5

    11.0

    11.5

    12.0

    HEALTH CARE Q1

    (11.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    6

    10

    14

    18

    22

    COMMUNICATIONSERVICES

    Q1

    (18.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    INDUSTRIALS

    Q1

    (6.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY

    Q1

    (8.1)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2216

    18

    20

    22

    24

    26

    INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY

    Q1

    (24.7)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0

    6.5

    7.0

    7.5

    8.0

    8.5

    CONSUMER STAPLES

    Q1(7.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    MATERIALSQ1

    (11.9)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-9-6-30369

    1215

    ENERGY

    Q1

    (4.5)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225

    30

    35

    40

    45

    REAL ESTATE Q1

    (42.1)

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    FINANCIALS Q1

    (22.8)

    * Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.

    10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

    UTILITIES

    Q1

    (9.4) yardeni.com

    S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins

    Page 20 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    S&P 500 NET WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, 4-quarter sum)

    Q1

    Q1

    S&P 500 Net Write-OffsS&P Data*I/B/E/S Data**

    * S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.

    Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 26.

    93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    Q1

    Q1

    S&P 500 WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, actual x 4 )

    Write-OffsS&P Operating* (1.08)

    I/B/E/S Operating** (6.64)

    * S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.

    Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 27.

    S&P 500 Write-Offs

    Page 21 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2420

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    Q1

    Q1

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPSI/B/E/S VS. S&P

    I/B/E/S (158.27)

    S&P (150.48)

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    Figure 28.

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS S&P

    Q1Q1

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    -10

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    Q1

    yardeni.com

    Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S less S&P

    Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S divided by S&P

    Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    Figure 29.

    S&P 500 Trailing Earnings

    Page 22 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • Figure 30.

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125

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    Q1

    S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)

    I/B/E/S S&P 500 (414.6)

    I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (405.5)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100

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    Q1

    S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P data(billion dollars, quarterly)

    SP S&P 500 (402.9)SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (394.4)

    2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125

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    S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P and I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)

    I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (405.5)

    SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (394.4)

    yardeni.com

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy

    Page 23 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

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  • -25-20-15-10-5051015202530

    -25-20-15-10-505

    1015202530

    Q1

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-50

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    Q1

    S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)

    Latest (7.7)

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data)*(yearly percent change)

    Latest (47.9)

    * Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 31.

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25

    -20

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    S&P 500 REVENUES(yearly percent change)

    Q1

    S&P 500 RevenuesAggregate* (9.9)Per Share (7.7)

    * S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 32.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 24 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220

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    .0

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    Q1

    Q1

    S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & EARNINGS(trillion dollars, nsa, annualized)

    S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*

    Net Operating Income(S&P data)

    * Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 33.

    93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5

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    Q1Q1

    yardeni.com

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)

    S&P 500 Operating EarningsI/B/E/S data (49.00)S&P data (47.61)

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 34.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 25 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-2

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    14Q1Q1S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data

    (percent, quarterly)

    Operating Profit MarginsI/B/E/S Earnings Data (13.7)S&P Earnings Data (13.3)

    Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    Figure 35.

    92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22450

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    S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL(S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)

    (dollars, ratio scale) Q1

    Revenues Per Share52-week Forward*Actual (x4)

    * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 36.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 26 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022900

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    LehmanCollapse

    COVID-19

    2221S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE

    (analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)5/27

    20

    Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*

    yardeni.com

    * Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    Figure 37.

    95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215

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    S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS(dollars, ratio scale)

    Q15/27

    Earnings Per Share52-week Forward* (198.70)I/B/E/S Operating (x4) (196.00)

    * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 38.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 27 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

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  • 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250

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    LehmanCollapse

    COVID-19

    2021 2022 Frwd May 20 189.06 211.78 197.80 May 27 189.61 212.12 198.70

    2021

    22

    S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 5/27

    Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*

    * Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    yardeni.com

    Figure 39.

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222

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    S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)

    Q1

    5/27

    S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins52-week Forward* (12.8)I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)

    * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

    yardeni.com

    Figure 40.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 28 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

    Yardeni Research, Inc.

  • 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226

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    2120

    5/275/27

    yardeni.com

    (percent, dividing forward earnings by forward revenues)

    * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

    S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN

    Consensus Forecasts

    52-week forward* (12.8)Annual

    Figure 41.

    S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues

    Page 29 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com

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