s&p vs. i/b/e/sfigure 7. 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19...
TRANSCRIPT
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Corporate Finance Briefing:S&P vs. I/B/E/S
EarningsYardeni Research, Inc.
June 4, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
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Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Revenues 1S&P 500 Operating Earnings 2S&P 500 Profits Margin 3S&P 500 Earnings 4S&P 500 Margin 5-6S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings 7-10S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS 11S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference) 12S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS 13S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)14S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)15S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS 16S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth) 17-18S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins19S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins20S&P 500 Write-Offs 21S&P 500 Trailing Earnings 22S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy 23S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues 24-29
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375400425450
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375400425450
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly, ratio scale)
Q1
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Q1
Latest (7.7)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 2.
S&P 500 Revenues
Page 1 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
15
25
35
45
55
65
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(dollars, quarterly, nsa, ratio scale) Q1
yardeni.com
Latest (49.00)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(yearly percent change)
Q1
Latest (47.9)
* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
S&P 500 Operating Earnings
Page 2 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
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93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Q1
S&P 500 REVENUES & OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)
Q1
Revenues (358.1)
Earnings (I/B/E/S) (49.0)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(percent, quarterly)
Q1
Latest (13.7)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 6.
S&P 500 Profits Margin
Page 3 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data(dollars, quarterly)
Q1
I/B/E/S Operating (49.00)
S&P Operating (47.61)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars) Q1
I/B/E/S Operating (49.00)S&P Reported (47.34)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (S&P data) vs REPORTED EPS (S&P data)(dollars)
Q1
S&P Operating (47.61)S&P Reported (47.34)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Earnings
Page 4 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 8.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN: S&P data vs I/B/E/S data(percent, quarterly) Q1
I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)S&P Operating (13.3)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (I/B/ES data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly) Q1
I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)S&P Reported (13.2)
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING MARGIN (S&P data) vs REPORTED MARGIN (S&P data)(percent, quarterly) Q1
S&P Operating (13.3)S&P Reported (13.2)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Margin
Page 5 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q1S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (S&P vs I/B/E/S earnings data)(percent, quarterly)
S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginI/B/E/S data (13.7)S&P data (13.3)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Q1S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN (S&P reported vs I/B/E/S operating earnings data)(percent, quarterly)
S&P 500 Profit MarginI/B/E/S operating data (13.7)S&P reported data (13.2)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (revenues and operating EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
S&P 500 Margin
Page 6 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Q1S&P 500 OPERATING & REPORTED EARNINGS PER SHARE (S&P data)
(dollars, quarterly)
Operating (S&P data) (47.6)Reported (S&P data) (47.3)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (I/B/E/S data) vs REPORTED EPS(S&P data)(dollars)
Q1
I/B/E/S Operating (49.0)S&P Reported (47.3)
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported EPS) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating EPS).
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings
Page 7 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 13.
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22150
200
250
300
350
400
S&P 500 REVENUESPER SHARE
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2215
65
115
165
215
HEALTH CARE Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2210
15
20
25
30
35
40
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2230
50
70
90
110
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2250
80
110
140
170
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220
40
60
80
100
120
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGYQ1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225
50
75
100
125
CONSUMER STAPLES Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225
35
45
55
65
MATERIALSQ1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2225
50
75
100
125
150
175
ENERGY
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 225
6
7
8
9
10
REAL ESTATE
Q1
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220
30
40
50
60
70
FINANCIALSQ1
Includes Real Estatethrough Q2-2016
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2220
25
30
35
40
45
UTILITIES
Q1
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings
Page 8 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 14.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
S&P 500 OPERATINGEARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Q1
(47.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-505101520253035
HEALTH CAREQ1(26.4)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
COMMUNICATION SERVICESQ1
(52.8)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
(-0.3)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75-50-25
0255075
100125150
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYQ1
(141.2)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Q1
(45.0)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1(10.3)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
0
50
100
MATERIALS Q1
(74.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
ENERGY
Q1
(18.4)
Capped at 100% and -100%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
REAL ESTATE Q1(28.0)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50-25
0255075
100125150175
FINANCIALS Q1
(138.8)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
UTILITIES
Q1
(-34.3)
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings
Page 9 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 15.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
8
10
12
14
16
18
S&P 500 OPERATINGPROFIT MARGIN*
(quarterly, percent) Q1
(13.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 229.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
HEALTH CARE Q1
(11.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
6
10
14
18
22
COMMUNICATIONSERVICES
Q1
(18.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
(6.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
12
CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY
Q1
(8.1)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2216
18
20
22
24
26
INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY
Q1
(24.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1(7.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224
6
8
10
12
14
MATERIALSQ1
(11.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-9-6-30369
1215
ENERGY
Q1
(4.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
30
35
40
45
REAL ESTATE Q1
(42.1)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
FINANCIALS Q1
(22.8)
* Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
8
10
12
14
16
18
UTILITIES
Q1
(9.4) yardeni.com
S&P 500 Operating & Reported Earnings
Page 10 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 16.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q1S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE
S&P Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20Q1HEALTH CARE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1Q1
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-12
-8
-4
0
4
8Q1MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Q1
REAL ESTATE
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20Q1FINANCIALS
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
Q1UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors Quarterly Operating and Reported EPS
Page 11 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 17.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60-40-20
020406080
100
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE
Q1% difference betweenS&P Operating andReported EPS (0.6)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
HEALTH CARE
Q1
(8.9)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
Q1
(-6.6)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
(-19.5)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Q4
(34.8)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Q1
(-2.2)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40-20
020406080
100120
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1
(6.5)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
MATERIALS
Q4
(-8.9)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
ENERGY
Q1
(29.7)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
REAL ESTATE
Q1
(5.7)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
100125
FINANCIALS
Q1
(3.7)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125
-75
-25
25
75
125
175
UTILITIES
Q4
(52.4)yardeni.com
S&P Sectors Quarterly EPS (% difference)
Page 12 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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Figure 18.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210
20
30
40
50
60
S&P 500 EARNINGSPER SHARE Q1
I/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Operating EPS
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
9
12
15
18
21
24
HEALTH CARE Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
12
CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 225
10
15
20
25
30
INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224
6
8
10
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
MATERIALS Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
ENERGY
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
REAL ESTATE Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-4
0
4
8
12
16
FINANCIALS Q1
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
1
2
3
4
5
6
UTILITIES
Q1
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & S&P Operating EPS
Page 13 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 19.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20-10
01020304050607080
Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS
Percent DifferenceI/B/E/S vs S&P (2.9)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Q1
HEALTH CARE
(17.2)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
100
Q1
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-2.9)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(-0.5)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-0.1)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(9.7)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
(0.0)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Q1
MATERIALS
(6.7)
Capped at 80%
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q1
ENERGY
(8.4)
Capped at 100% and -100%.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
25
50
75
100
125
150Q1REAL ESTATE
(134.2)
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
100
Q1
FINANCIALS
(-10.1)
Capped at -100%.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Q1
UTILITIES
(-38.9)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (% difference)
Page 14 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 20.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
-30
0
30
60
90
120
150
Q1
S&P 500 Operating EPS (y/y %)I/B/E/S (47.9)S&P (144.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q1
HEALTH CARE(26.4)(34.6)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-25
0255075
100
Q1
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(52.8)(75.0)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-80-60-40-200204060
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(-0.3)(49.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75-50-25
0255075
100125150175
Q1CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(141.2)(158.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(45.0)(49.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
(10.3)(9.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-100-75-50-250255075100125150
Q1
MATERIALS(74.5)(78.0)
Capped at 100%.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q1
ENERGY
(18.4)(100.0)
Capped at 100% and -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-20
0
20
40
Q1REAL ESTATE
(28.0)(-9.7)
Capped at 30% and -30%.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-120-90-60-30
0306090
120Q1FINANCIALS
(100.0)(100.0)
Capped at 100% and -100%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q1
UTILITIES
(-34.3)(36.2)
Capped at -50% and 50%.
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S & SP Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 15 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 21.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210
20
30
40
50
60
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHAREQ1
I/B/E/S Operating EPSS&P Reported EPS
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
HEALTH CARE Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
COMMUNICATIONSERVICES
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
0
3
6
9
12
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2202468
10121416
CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
30
INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 223
4
5
6
7
8
9
CONSUMER STAPLES Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1012345678
MATERIALS Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
ENERGY
Q1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
REAL ESTATEQ1
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
FINANCIALS Q1
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-2
0
2
4
6
8
UTILITIES
Q1
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating and SP Reported EPS
Page 16 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 22.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
S&P 500 OPERATINGEARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Q1
(47.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-505101520253035
HEALTH CAREQ1(26.4)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
COMMUNICATION SERVICESQ1
(52.8)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
(-0.3)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-75-50-25
0255075
100125150
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYQ1
(141.2)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Q1
(45.0)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1(10.3)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50
0
50
100
MATERIALS Q1
(74.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
ENERGY
Q1
(18.4)
Capped at 100% and -100%
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
REAL ESTATE Q1(28.0)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-50-25
0255075
100125150175
FINANCIALS Q1
(138.8)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
UTILITIES
Q1
(-34.3)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 17 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 23.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(yearly percent change in 4-quarter sum)
(-0.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1
HEALTH CARE(12.9)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q1
COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(11.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(-46.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(-8.0)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
0
10
20
30
40
Q1
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(18.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1
CONSUMER STAPLES
(4.7)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Q1
MATERIALS
(25.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Q1
ENERGY
(-100.0)
Capped at 100% and -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q1
REAL ESTATE(1.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
Q1
FINANCIALS
(15.0)
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1
UTILITIES(-8.1)
yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Operating EPS (y/y % growth)
Page 18 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 24.
95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 234
6
8
10
12
14
Q1
S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN*(trailing 4-quarter, percent)
(11.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0Q1HEALTH CARE
(10.8)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1COMMUNICATION SERVICES
(16.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20225
6
7
8
9
10
11
Q1
INDUSTRIALS
(5.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20224
5
6
7
8
9
Q1
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(6.2)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202216
18
20
22
24
Q1INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(22.9)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
Q1CONSUMER STAPLES
(7.6)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
7
8
9
10
11
Q1MATERIALS
(10.1)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-3
0
3
6
9
12
Q1
ENERGY
(-0.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202226
28
30
32
Q1
REAL ESTATE
(30.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
8
10
12
14
16
18
Q1FINANCIALS
(15.6)
* Operating margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20229
10
11
12
13
14
15
Q1
UTILITIES
(13.2) yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Four-quarter Operating Profit Margins
Page 19 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 25.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
8
10
12
14
16
18
S&P 500 OPERATINGPROFIT MARGIN*
(quarterly, percent) Q1
(13.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 229.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
HEALTH CARE Q1
(11.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
6
10
14
18
22
COMMUNICATIONSERVICES
Q1
(18.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
INDUSTRIALS
Q1
(6.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 222
4
6
8
10
12
CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY
Q1
(8.1)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2216
18
20
22
24
26
INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGY
Q1
(24.7)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
CONSUMER STAPLES
Q1(7.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 224
6
8
10
12
14
MATERIALSQ1
(11.9)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-9-6-30369
1215
ENERGY
Q1
(4.5)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2225
30
35
40
45
REAL ESTATE Q1
(42.1)
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
FINANCIALS Q1
(22.8)
* Operating margin in percent and based on latest quarterly earnings per share and sales. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv for earnings and Standard & Poor’s for sales.
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 226
8
10
12
14
16
18
UTILITIES
Q1
(9.4) yardeni.com
S&P Sectors I/B/E/S Quarterly Operating Profit Margins
Page 20 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
S&P 500 NET WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, 4-quarter sum)
Q1
Q1
S&P 500 Net Write-OffsS&P Data*I/B/E/S Data**
* S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1
Q1
S&P 500 WRITE-OFFS PER SHARE(dollars, actual x 4 )
Write-OffsS&P Operating* (1.08)
I/B/E/S Operating** (6.64)
* S&P operating less S&P reported earnings per share.** I/B/E/S operating less S&P reported earnings per share.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (reported earnings) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (operating earnings).
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
S&P 500 Write-Offs
Page 21 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2420
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q1
Q1
yardeni.com
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPSI/B/E/S VS. S&P
I/B/E/S (158.27)
S&P (150.48)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 28.
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS S&P
Q1Q1
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1
yardeni.com
Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S less S&P
Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPSI/B/E/S divided by S&P
Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 29.
S&P 500 Trailing Earnings
Page 22 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 30.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
Q1
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 (414.6)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (405.5)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Q1
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITH & WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P data(billion dollars, quarterly)
SP S&P 500 (402.9)SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (394.4)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Q1Q1
S&P 500 TOTAL EARNINGS WITHOUT ENERGY: S&P and I/B/E/S data(billion dollars, quarterly)
I/B/E/S S&P 500 ex-Energy (405.5)
SP S&P 500 ex-Energy (394.4)
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 Earnings With & Without Energy
Page 23 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
-25-20-15-10-5051015202530
-25-20-15-10-505
1015202530
Q1
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-50
0
50
100
-50
0
50
100
Q1
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(yearly percent change)
Latest (7.7)
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data)*(yearly percent change)
Latest (47.9)
* Due to extreme values, Q4-2008’s -65.2% is capped at -40% and Q4-2009’s +198.9% is capped at 60%.Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Q1
S&P 500 REVENUES(yearly percent change)
Q1
S&P 500 RevenuesAggregate* (9.9)Per Share (7.7)
* S&P quarterly data, not per share. Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 24 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 220
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
.0
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Q1
Q1
S&P 500 AGGREGATE REVENUES & EARNINGS(trillion dollars, nsa, annualized)
S&P 500 Aggregate Revenues*
Net Operating Income(S&P data)
* Revenues are derived by multiplying S&P 500 revenues per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Q1Q1
yardeni.com
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(dollars, quarterly)
S&P 500 Operating EarningsI/B/E/S data (49.00)S&P data (47.61)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 25 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14Q1Q1S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN: S&P data vs. I/B/E/S data
(percent, quarterly)
Operating Profit MarginsI/B/E/S Earnings Data (13.7)S&P Earnings Data (13.3)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 35.
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL(S&P quarterly data) & FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)
(dollars, ratio scale) Q1
Revenues Per Share52-week Forward*Actual (x4)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 26 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022900
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LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
2221S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale)5/27
20
Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. WHO declared global COVID-19 pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 37.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2215
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL OPERATING EARNINGS(dollars, ratio scale)
Q15/27
Earnings Per Share52-week Forward* (198.70)I/B/E/S Operating (x4) (196.00)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 27 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 202250
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LehmanCollapse
COVID-19
2021 2022 Frwd May 20 189.06 211.78 197.80 May 27 189.61 212.12 198.70
2021
22
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 5/27
Consensus ForecastsAnnualForward*
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20222
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S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES(percent)
Q1
5/27
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins52-week Forward* (12.8)I/B/E/S Operating (13.7)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 28 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20226
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5/275/27
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(percent, dividing forward earnings by forward revenues)
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
Consensus Forecasts
52-week forward* (12.8)Annual
Figure 41.
S&P 500 Earnings & Revenues
Page 29 / June 4, 2021 / S&P vs. I/B/E/S www.yardeni.com
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