22 October 2015

Soybean Workgroup

Nico Hawkins General Manager

Supply & Demand (National vs. International)

Final:

2014/15

Projection:

2015/16

Mt Mt

Opening stocks 61.8 63.7 62.8 78.0

Production 919.7 1 027.8 318.9 320.5

Imports 103.0 150.0 120.2 123.9

Processed 1 015.5 (c) 1 120.4 (c) 297.9 310.5

Exports 0.6 3.5 126.0 126.8

Closing stocks 63.7 (b) 121.7 (b) 78.0 85.1

(a) Source: NAMC: S&DEC - 5 Oct '15 and USDA - 15 Oct '15

(b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures

(c) Excluding producer withdrawals, seed and end users

Marketing year

Mar - Feb

International (USDA) (a)

Final:

2014/15

Projection:

2015/16

'000t '000t

NAMC (S&D) (a)

Production & Producer deliveries

Crop estimate vs. producer deliveries

2014/15 2013/14

Ton Ton

CEC Production * 1 059 850 948 000 784 500

SAGIS Deliveries ** 1 004 505 919 723 759 146

Difference 55 345 28 277 25 354

* CEC Final estimate ** SAGIS Progr. Mar '15 - Aug '15

Soybeans2015/16

Ton

CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries

Production & Producer deliveries

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16Progr.

15/16Proj.

SOYBEANS: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS DeliveriesSAGIS (Prod Deliveries) CEC (Crop Estimate) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield)

Ton

S&DEC

Imports & Exports

Summarised info

Import Export

2013/14 3 256 15 390

2014/15 102 977 576

*2015/16 122 096 3 151

*Progr. Mar '15 - Aug '15

Source: SAGIS

Soybean

Ton

Marketing

year

Imports & Exports

Soybeans: Imports for RSA 2015/16 season

MONTHBrazil Malawi Paraguy Zambia

Month

TotalProgressive

Total

Ton Ton Ton Ton Ton Ton

March 2015 0 150 26 902 470 27 522 27 522

April 2015 0 120 32 795 64 32 979 60 501

May 2015 0 90 0 146 236 60 737

June 2015 0 0 0 991 991 61 728

July 2015 0 56 0 0 56 61 784

August 2015 59 768 446 0 98 60 312 122 096

Total 59 768 862 59 697 1 769 122 096

Imports & Exports

Soybeans: Imports for RSA 2015/16 season

Brazil59 768

Malawi862

Paraguy59 697

Zambia1 769

Soybeans: Imports for RSA- Mar '15 to Aug '15 -

Total imports: 122 096 ton

Imports & Exports per marketing year

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16Progr.

15/16Proj.

SOYBEANS: IMPORTS & EXPORTS

Imports Exports

Ton

S&DEC

Soybeans: Processed & Consumption

Processed

Firms Tons Firms Tons

Human Consumption 9 12 400 9 13 064

Animal Feed 25 63 075 28 61 761

Oil and Oilcake 14 472 106 15 399 600

547 581 474 425

* 2015/16: 1 Mar '15 - 31 Aug '15 Source: SAGIS

** 2014/15: 1 Mar '14 - 31 Aug '14

2015/16 * 2014/15 **Soybeans

Processed

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16Progr.

15/16Proj.

SOYBEANS: PROCESSED

Human Animal feed (Full fat soya) Crush (Oil/Oilcake)

Ton

S&DEC

Soybeans: Processed & Consumption

Consumption

Opening & Ending Stocks

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16Progr.

15/16Proj.

SOYBEANS: STOCK

Opening stock Ending Stock

Ton

S&DEC

2015/16 Marketing Year

Supply & Demand

1059 8501004 505

548 004

3 151

122 096

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

1 100 000

1 200 000

SOYBEANS: 2015/16 MARKETING YEAR1 Mar - 31 Aug 2015

CEC (Crop Estimate) Prod deliveries Processed Exports Imports

TonTon

1 106 000S&DEC

TonTonTonTon

Price movement

Indicative import parity price

$/t $/t $/t

International FOB value $/t 373.00 362.00 372.00

Freight rate 33.00 25.00 25.00

Insurance (0.3% of FOB) 1.12 1.09 1.12

Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) 407.12 388.09 398.12

Converted to R/t: R/t R/t R/t

Exhange R/$ 13.4387 13.4387 13.4387

Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) 5 471.16 5 215.43 5 350.22

Financing cost 42.72 40.72 41.78

Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing 5 513.88 5 256.15 5 392.00

Discharging cost - Durban 158.90 158.90 158.90

Import tariff 401.01 389.18 399.94

Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban 6 073.79 5 804.23 5 950.84

Railage: Durban - Randfontein 432.09 432.09 432.09

DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein 6 505.88 6 236.32 6 382.93

SAFEX Spot price 5 495.00

Source: IGC - Grain Market Report

SAFEX

2015/10/13USA

Gulf

Argentine

Up River

Brazil

Paranagua

Price movement

International prices (CBOT)

CBOT: Latest Soybean prices vs previous prices

2015/10/13 2015/09/14 2014/10/13

Price Price Price

$/Ton $/Ton $/Ton

Nov '15 335.84 3.37 324.89 -2.97 346.13

Jan '16 337.38 3.47 326.06 -3.35 349.07

Source: CBOT

% Month

on Month

% Year

on Year

Price movement

Local prices (SAFEX)

SAFEX: Latest prices vs previous prices

2015/10/13 2015/09/14 2014/10/13

Price Price Price

R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton

Soybean 5 545.00 2.97 5 385.00 7.92 5 138.00

Soybean 5 504.00 5.85 5 200.00 11.69 4 928.00

Source: SAFEX

Future prices - Dec 2015

Future prices - Mar 2016

% Month

on Month

% Year

on Year

Price movement

SARS Import & Export FOB prices (Mar ‘15 – Aug ‘15)

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)267 585 251 351 340 793

Total value of imports FOB

R'0001 235 241.97 1 392 877.21 1 605 645.48

Value per ton R/Ton 4 616.26 5 541.56 4 711.50

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ExportsQuantity

(Ton)33 378 21 371 4 696

Total value of exports FOB

R'000199 371.91 144 094.25 15 672.05

Value per ton R/Ton 5 973.15 6 742.51 3 337.32

SOYBEAN OILCAKE

2304.00

Largest Importers: Mar '15 - Aug '15

SOYBEAN OILCAKE

2304.00

Largest Exporters: Mar '15 - Aug '15

Argentinia: 1 001 868, Malaw i: 4 638, Zambia: 1 539

Botsw ana: 11 350, Namibia: 7 649, Sw aziland: 7 531

Price movement

SARS Import & Export FOB prices (Mar ‘15 – Aug ‘15)

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)55 668 77 690 79 966

Total value of imports FOB

R'000516 231.91 811 706.74 829 166.02

Value per ton R/Ton 9 273.41 10 448.02 10 368.98

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ExportsQuantity

(Ton)31 702 33 772 26 316

Total value of exports FOB

R'000395 253.83 422 482.54 329 258.56

Value per ton R/Ton 12 467.79 12 509.85 12 511.73

SOYBEANS OIL OTHER

1507.90

Largest Exporters: Mar '15 - Aug '15

SOYBEANS OIL OTHER

1507.90

Largest Importers: Mar '15 - Aug '15

Argentinia: 34 142, Netherlands: 13 007, Spain: 9 501

Zimbabw e: 20 485, Zambia: 8 358, Lesotho: 1 689

Price movement

SARS Import & Export FOB prices (Mar ‘15 – Aug ‘15)

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)18 360 17 296 17 646

Total value of imports FOB

R'000157 071.35 178 129.27 177 746.76

Value per ton R/Ton 8 555.08 10 298.87 10 072.92

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ExportsQuantity

(Ton)22 129 18 163 5 721

Total value of exports FOB

R'000260 651.47 217 236.47 73 907.13

Value per ton R/Ton 11 778.73 11 960.38 12 918.57

SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL

1507.10

Largest Importers: Mar '15 - Aug '15

Argentinia: 13 353. Spain: 5 006

Zimbabw e: 16 512, Zambia: 3 153, Sw aziland: 1 725

Largest Exporters: Mar '15 - Aug '15

SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL

1507.10

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ImportsQuantity

(Ton)123 419 94 767 838

Total value of imports FOB

R'000607 060.77 473 802.18 6 827.23

Value per ton R/Ton 4 918.70 4 999.65 8 147.05

2015/16 2014/15 2013/14

ExportsQuantity

(Ton)2 477 325 1 219

Total value of exports FOB

R'00014 077.49 4 133.42 8 067.50

Value per ton R/Ton 5 683.28 12 718.22 6 618.13

SOYBEANS - OTHER

1201.90

Largest Exporters: Mar '15 - Aug '15

Mozambique: 2 405, Sw aziland: 43, Botsw ana: 14

SOYBEANS - OTHER

1201.90

Largest Importers: Mar '15 - Aug '15

Paraguay: 60 001, Brazil: 60 000, Zambia: 1 995

Price movement

SARS Import & Export FOB prices (Mar ‘15 – Aug ‘15)

Thank you

Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS’ website under Presentations