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Southern Nevada Market Update

Southern NevadaMarket Update


Local EconomicFundamentals


Resident Population Growth2017 to 2018Rank State Annual Growth

1 Nevada +2.09%2 Idaho +2.05%3 Utah +1.87%4 Arizona +1.74%5 Florida +1.54%6 Washington +1.48%7 Colorado +1.42%8 Texas +1.34%9 South Carolina +1.25%10 North Carolina +1.10%

U.S. Average +0.62%

#1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau HigherLower


Nevada Population and Growth

3.0

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Millio

ns

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2.1%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18


Clark County Population

2.2 M

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17

Millio

ns



Clark County Population Growth

2.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17Source: U.S. Census Bureau


Population GrowthLargest 30 MSAs

2.2%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%



+2.2% (net)+47,355 Residents



+130 Per Day+5.4 Per Hour



State Surrenders Share

California 27,625 36.2%

Florida 4,619 6.1%

Texas 3,574 4.7%

Arizona 3,409 4.5%

Illinois 2,905 3.8%

Washington 2,838 3.7%

Hawaii 2,531 3.3%

Colorado 2,380 3.1%

Utah 2,198 2.9%

New York 2,025 2.7%

Driver’s License SurrendersTo Nevada By State

Note: Based on driver’s license surrenders from the DMV for 2018.

20,000 or more3,000 to 19,999

1,900 to 2,999700 to 1,899

Under 700Source: UNLV CBER


Fastest Job Growth in the NationRank State Annual Growth

1 Nevada +3.8%2 Arizona +3.3%3 Washington +3.2%4 Utah +3.1%5 Texas +3.1%6 Wyoming +2.9%7 Colorado +2.8%8 Florida +2.7%9 Georgia +2.6%10 New Hampshire +2.6%

U.S. Average +1.8%

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2018 vs. December 2017)

#1 Nevada


Employment GrowthLargest 30 MSAs

3.4%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%



EmploymentLas Vegas MSA

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Thou

sand

s Present: 1,026,900

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics


Employment GrowthLas Vegas MSA | Year-over-Year

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

90 Consecutive Months of Positive Growth



Employment GrowthLas Vegas MSA | Last 12 Months

00

8001,000

1,4001,800

4,9004,900

5,5005,700

7,900

InformationMining and Logging

Trade, Transportation, and UtilitiesManufacturing

Financial ActivitiesOther Services

Education and Health ServicesProfessional and Business Services

ConstructionGovernment

Leisure and Hospitality

Net Job Growth: +33,900



Unemployment Rate

-2%0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%

'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Variance Las Vegas MSA United States



Fastest Growing Personal Income

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (Q2 2018 vs. Q3 2018)

#1 Nevada

Rank StateQuarterly

GrowthAnnualized

Growth1 Nevada +1.52% +6.21%2 Washington +1.51% +6.16%3 Arizona +1.33% +5.42%4 Colorado +1.29% +5.27%5 New Hampshire +1.25% +5.12%6 Oregon +1.25% +5.10%7 Utah +1.17% +4.75%8 Pennsylvania +1.16% +4.71%9 Texas +1.14% +4.65%10 North Dakota +1.14% +4.63%


NotableInvestments


Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateResorts World Las Vegas $7,000,000,000 Under Construction 2021 (Built in Phases)The Drew $3,000,000,000 Planned 2022Jackie Robinson Arena and Hotel Project $2,700,000,000 Planned Spring 2020Las Vegas Stadium (65,000 Seats) $1,800,000,000 Under Construction Jul-20Las Vegas Convention Center Expansion $1,400,000,000 Under Construction Dec-20 (Built in Phases)Union Village $1,200,000,000 Under Construction 2025 (Built in Phases)Henderson West $950,000,000 Planned Q4 2028Project Neon $900,000,000 Under Construction Summer 2019Vegas Extreme Park (The Edge) $800,000,000 Planned TBDPalms Casino Resort Renovation $690,000,000 Under Construction Q4 2019Google Data Center $600,000,000 Planned Dec-20Caesars FORUM Conference Center $375,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2020UNLV Medical School Building $230,000,000 Planned Late 2021I-15 and Tropicana Interchange Reconstruction $200,000,000 Planned 2024Hard Rock Hotel Rebrand and Renovations $200,000,000 Planned Fall 2020Clark County Park Upgrades $150,000,000 Planned TBDLas Vegas Ballpark $150,000,000 Under Construction Mar-19Stratosphere Renovation (The STRAT) $140,000,000 Under Construction 2021MGM Grand Conference Center Expansion $130,000,000 Under Construction Early 2019Las Vegas Monorail Extension to Mandalay Bay $110,000,000 Planned 2020Elysian at the Hughes Center $100,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2020SLS Las Vegas Renovation $100,000,000 Under Construction 2020Kind Heaven $100,000,000 Planned August 2019Centennial Hills Hospital Expansion $95,000,000 Planned DNDCSN Charleston, Henderson, and North Las Vegas Campuses Student Union $80,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2019U.S. 95 Widening $78,000,000 Under Construction Fall 2019Downtown Las Vegas Expo Center $76,000,000 Under Construction June 2020


Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateRaiders Corporate Headquarters and Practice Facility $75,000,000 Under Construction July 2020New 215 Interchanges at Losee, Pecos, and Lamb $70,000,000 Under Construction April 2020Luxury Apartments at Twain/Dean Martin $65,000,000 Under Construction April 2020Nevada State College Education Building $62,000,000 Planned DNDSilverton Village $60,000,000 Under Construction 2019New Las Vegas Municipal Courthouse $59,300,000 Planned January 2021Blue Diamond Widening $58,560,000 Under Construction DNDHampton Inn & Suites/Home2Suites $55,000,000 Planned April 2020The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino Pool Redesign $50,000,000 Under Construction May 2019Downtown Henderson $50,000,000 Under Construction 2021CIM Downtown Grand Third Tower $45,000,000 Under Construction 2020Water Pipeline to Apex Industrial Park $42,000,000 Under Construction Late 2020South Point Hotel Casino & Spa Renovation $40,000,000 Under Construction September 2020UNLV Howard R. Hughes College of Engineering Expansion $35,000,000 Planned TBDNew Smith Center Parking Garages $33,000,000 Under Construction September 2019Fremont Street Experience Canopy and Mall Reconstruction $33,000,000 Planned May 2019Fertitta Football Complex $31,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2019UNLV Harry Reid Research and Technology Park Bldg. 3 $30,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2019Sahara and Las Vegas Blvd Pedestrian Bridge $27,500,000 Planned January 2024Southern Hills Hospital Behavioral Health Center $26,000,000 Under Construction 2019UNLV University Gateway Development Phase II $18,000,000 Under Construction Q2 2019Starwood Hotel (near Las Vegas Motor Speedway) $18,000,000 Planned 2019Las Vegas Strip Pedestrian Bridge $16,900,000 Under Construction Jul-19Mountain's Edge Sports Complex $16,000,000 Under Construction Early 2019Residence Inn - St. Rose $16,000,000 Under Construction April 2019McCarran Airport Infrastructure Improvements $8,000,000 Planned DNDTreehouse Las Vegas $7,000,000 Planned Mar-19


Project Cost Status Est. Completion DateSkyline Hotel & Casino Expansion $7,000,000 Under Construction Spring 2020North Las Vegas Roadway Improvements $3,570,000 Planned DNDBoulder Highway Upgrade Project $1,500,000 Under Construction Summer 2019UNLV New Lee Business School Building DND Planned DNDAREA15 DND Under Construction Dec-19Circa Resort and Casino DND Planned DecemberHenderson Executive Airport Expansion DND Under Construction Summer 2019Northwest Las Vegas Fairfield Inn DND Under Construction DNDWynn Convention Center DND Under Construction Mar-20Wynn West DND Planned TBDMSG Sphere Las Vegas DND Under Construction Late 2020Home2 Suites - Dean Martin DND Under Construction January 2019Fairfield Inn & Suites Airport South DND Under Construction April 2019TownPlace Suites Airport South DND Under Construction May 2019Paris Las Vegas Room Renovation DND Under Construction 2019Showcase Mall Expansion DND Under Construction 2019SpringHill Suites Marriott DND Planned April 2021Residence Inn - Paradise DND Planned June 2023Aloft Hotel DND Planned DNDThe Element Hotel by Westin DND Planned DNDMardi Gras Hotel and Casino Redevelopment DND Planned 2023Monorail Station at MSG Sphere Las Vegas DND Planned 2020Hotel Apache at Binions DND Under Construction Summer 2019Boyd Gaming Las Vegas Headquarters DND Planned DNDHoward Hughes Ballpark Hotel DND Planned DNDTotal $24.4 Billion


HousingAffordability


Fastest House Price AppreciationHouse Price Index Growth

Rank State Annual Growth

1 Nevada +15.0%2 Idaho +13.0%3 Utah +10.4%4 Washington +9.9%5 Colorado +9.8%6 Florida +9.2%7 Georgia +8.9%8 Arizona +8.8%9 California +8.6%10 Tennessee +7.7%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)

#1 Nevada


House Price Index GrowthLargest 30 MSAs

18.1%

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (Q3 2017 vs. Q3 2018)


Single Family Median Home PriceLargest 30 MSAs

$294,600

$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000

$1,000,000

N/A

N/A

Source: National Association of Realtors (Q3 2018)


Housing Opportunity IndexLas Vegas MSA

13.0

88.7

47.6

0102030405060708090

100

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: National Association of Homebuilders


Ratio of Home Price-to-Income

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Incomes Outstripped Home Prices

Home Prices Outstripped Incomes

Source: SalesTraq and Applied Analysis


Growth in Values Since 2005In Western States

9%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

NevadaCalifornia

ArizonaHawaii

New MexicoAlaska

WyomingOregon

ColoradoWashington

IdahoUtah

Montana

Source: National Association of Realtors (ACS and FHFA)


House Price IndexLas Vegas MSA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Federal Housing Financing Agency (1995=100)


U.S. Mortgage Interest RatesFixed-Rate

4.1%

4.6%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9% 15-Year 30-Year

Source: Freddie Mac


Average Apartment RentsLas Vegas Valley

$1,097

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: REIS


Las Vegas Owner vs. Renter Comparative Analysis Monthly Average Rents vs. Estimated Cost of Ownership

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

$2,200Renter Owner


New Home MarketSupply-Demand


38,705

3,793

9,944

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

New Home ClosingsLas Vegas Area

Source: SalesTraq

13.8%

-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%

00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18


$410,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

New Home Median Closing PriceLas Vegas Area

Source: SalesTraq

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


New Home Market ShareAs a Percentage of Total Home Sales

17.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: SalesTraq


Actively Selling Subdivisions

207

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: SalesTraq


6

87

8

1520

0

50

100

150

200

250

'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Single Family Condo/Townhouse

Actively Selling SubdivisionsBy Product Type

Source: SalesTraq (Excludes High- and Mid-Rises Built Prior to Displayed Periods)

3.4% 3.4%

6.7%

9.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

'15 '16 '17 '18

Condo/Townhouse Share of Product Offerings


Employment-Growth-to-Permit Ratio (E/P)

2.84

1.95

-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20246

Las Vegas United States

Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, United States Census Bureau and Applied Analysis


Resale Home MarketSupply-Demand


58,522

47,875

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18

Resale Home ClosingsLas Vegas Area

Source: SalesTraq

-2.8%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18


$260,000

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Resale Home Median Closing PriceLas Vegas Area

Source: SalesTraq

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


Resale Price AppreciationLas Vegas

22.3% or Greater16.7% - 22.2%13.2% - 16.6%0.1% - 13.1%

Data Not Available Source: SalesTraq

Less than 0.0%

Source: SalesTraq


Positive95.3%

Under Water4.7%

Q3 2018

Positive74.6%

Under Water25.4%

Q3 2014

Positive30.4%

Under Water69.6%

Q3 2010

Nevada Homeowner’s Equity

Source: CoreLogic


Positive95.3%

Under Water4.7%

Nevada

Homeowner’s Equity

Source: CoreLogic

Positive95.9%

Under Water4.1%

United States


0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Notices of Breach and Default

Clark County, NV

Notices of Trustee Sale

Clark County, NV

Trustee Deeds (Foreclosures)Clark County, NV

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '180

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Source: Clark County Assessor's Office


Mortgage Defaults in NevadaMortgages Past Due or in Foreclosure

134,159

18,424

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association, National Delinquency Survey


Mix of Resale ClosingsDistressed Sales (Short, Auction and REO)

27.2%38.1%

63.0%

76.5%83.9% 87.7%

92.8% 96.0%

72.8%61.9%

37.0%

23.5%16.1% 12.3% 7.2%

4.0%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18Source: Applied Analysis/SalesTraq


Number of Bank-Owned Homes

668 = 5.1 Days

Source: Applied Analysis/SalesTraq


Effective Months of AvailabilityMultiple Listing Service

3.3

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

0123456789

10United States: 4.2 Months

Southern Nevada: 3.3 Months

Source: MLS/SalesTraq


Effective Months of AvailabilityBy Price Segment

Less than $100,000$100,000 - $149,999$150,000 - $199,999$200,000 - $249,999$250,000 - $299,999$300,000 - $349,999$350,000 - $399,999$400,000 - $449,999$450,000 - $499,999$500,000 - $999,999$1,000,000 and Over

2.5 Months

4.3 Months



Effective Months of

Availability



Median Days on the Market

Less Than 3131 to 4545 to 6061 to 7576 to 165

46 DaysU.S. Average Median Days on the Market

Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS, NAR


Median Days on the MarketLas Vegas Area Single Family Market

Source: SalesTraq, GLVAR/MLS

26.0

'11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60December 2018: 26 DaysDecember 2017: 19 Days


Southern NevadaMarket Update

southern nevada market update - las vegas real estate ... · southern nevada . market update....

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