Environmental Show of the SouthChattanooga, Tennessee

May 15, 2019

Southeastern Regional Haze Project Update

John HornbackExecutive DirectorMetro 4/SESARM

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Presentation Outline

• Introduction to Metro 4/SESARM• Regional haze program expectations• Key VISTAS project tasks• VISTAS technical analysis status• What we’ve learned• Consultation and communications• Remaining work and projected schedule

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Metro 4/SESARM

WHO WE ARE• Nonprofit corporations

• Multi-jurisdictional organizations (MJOs)

• Organized in mid-1990s by locals/states

• Metro 4 membership – 17 local agencies➢in AL, FL, KY, NC, and TN

• SESARM membership – 10 states➢AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV

• Funded by member agencies, mostly via grants

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Metro 4/SESARM

WHAT WE DOMission: To enhance the effectiveness of member agencies in managing and improving air quality.”

• Advocate positions of agencies on issues

• Promote communications

• Offer training courses

• Manage regional meetings and workshops

• Support technical analysis projects

• “Other duties as assigned”4

1999 Regional Haze Rule Objectives

•Reduction of visibility impairment on the 20% haziest (worst) days in national park and wilderness (Class I) areas to natural conditions by 2064

•No worsening of visibility on the 20% cleanest (best) days.

•Development of State Implementation Plans (SIPs) every 10 years to address emissions that contribute to regional haze.

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Regional Haze Rule Requirements40 CFR 51.308

• Establish baseline visibility conditions (2000 – 2004)• Evaluate most impaired and clearest days (using new metrics)• Establish uniform rate of progress (URP) glide path and

reasonable progress goals (RPGs) for Class I areas• Evaluate best available retrofit technology (BART) – Round 1

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Regional Haze Rule Requirements40 CFR 51.308

• Develop long-term strategy• Communicate and consult – RPOs, nearby states, FLMs,

stakeholders• Reevaluate periodically• Round 1 SIPs were due December 17, 2007

• Rule revisions effective – January 10, 2017

• Round 2 SIP deadline extended to July 31, 20217

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RPO Responsibilities

•Assist states in improving visibility in 156 Class I areas.

•Produce technical information to aid in understanding state impacts on national parks and wilderness areas

• Evaluate regional emission reduction strategies

•Help states meet consultation requirements

•Contribute to development of state regional haze SIPs

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VISTAS Class I Areas ListVISTAS REGION FEDERAL CLASS I AREAS LIST

STATE – CLASS I AREA FEDERAL LAND MANAGER

AL – Sipsey Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

FL – Chassahowitzka Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

FL – Everglades National Park USDI National Park Service

FL – Saint Marks Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

GA/TN – Cohutta Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

GA – Okefenokee Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

GA – Wolf Island Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

KY – Mammoth Cave National Park USDI National Park Service

NC/TN – Great Smoky Mountains National Park USDI National Park Service

NC/TN – Joyce Kilmer-Slickrock Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

NC – Linville Gorge Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

NC – Shining Rock Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

NC – Swanquarter Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

SC – Cape Romain Wilderness Area USDI Fish and Wildlife Service

VA – James River Face Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

VA – Shenandoah National Park USDI National Park Service

WV – Dolly Sods Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service

WV – Otter Creek Wilderness Area USDA Forest Service 10

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VISTAS Class I Areas Map

Participating Agencies in VISTAS Project

•10 SESARM states

•Knox County, Tennessee local agency • represents the 17 local agencies in the Southeast

• Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians • represents the 6 federally-recognized tribes in the Southeast

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VISTAS Project Management Team

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VISTAS Contractor Team

Primary Contractor• Eastern Research Group, IncoRegi Oommen, Project Manager

Subcontractor• Alpine Geophysics, LLCoGreg Stella, Subcontractor Manager

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VISTAS Project Tasks

RFP

Bids & contractor selection

Contract development

Work plan and QAPP

Modeling protocol

Contract management

Data acquisition/analysis

Emission updates

Emission processing

Air quality modeling

Area of influence analysis

Source apportionment tags

Model performance evals

Future year projections

Reports and archival15

Emissions Updates

•Used EPA’s 2011 base year emissions without change•Updated EPA’s 2028 projection year emissionsoEGU and major non-EGU sourcesoRemoved Clean Power Plan assumptionsoAdjusted for changes in fuels and facility operating plans

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VISTAS Air Quality Model

• EPA’s 2011/2028 modeling platformoversion 6.3eloCAMx v6.32

•Replaced CAMx v6.32 with CAMx v6.40•Used 2011 meteorology•Reasons for using EPA platformoTime limitedoBudget limitedoMost source sectors acceptably represented in EPA platform

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VISTAS Modeling Domains

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VISTAS Area of Influence Analysis

• Evaluates emissions (Q), distance to Class I area (d), and extinction weighted residence time (EWRT) in model cells• Formula: (Q/d)*EWRT

• Establishes each facility’s contribution to light extinction at each Class I area on the 20% most impaired days•Ranks facilities based on projected contributions• Facilities with highest contributions may be subject to

4-factor analysis19

Example AOI Results by Sector

Sector SO2 NOx Total

Non-Point 4.17% 3.56% 7.73%

Non-Road (Marine, Aircraft, and Railroads)

0.30% 3.51% 3.81%

Non-Road (Other) 0.16% 8.69% 8.85%

Onroad 0.23% 4.14% 4.37%

Point 66.91% 7.18% 74.09%

Point Prescribed Fires 0.81% 0.33% 1.14%

Total 100.0%

Example Class I Federal Area

Example AOI Results by Facility (Sorted on Sulfate Fraction Only)

Facility Distance (km)2028 SO2

Emissions (Tons)2028 NOx

Emissions (Tons) Sulfate FractionCumulative Sulfate

Fraction Nitrate Fraction

1 53 4,846 496 37.59% 37.59% 0.57%

2 640 56,939 6,578 2.98% 40.57% 0.08%

3 69 687 1,796 2.25% 42.82% 1.01%

4 283 6,665 4,528 2.03% 44.86% 0.18%

5 651 41,596 8,123 1.76% 46.61% 0.06%

6 415 10,943 4,388 1.75% 48.36% 0.16%

7 88 608 201 1.30% 49.67% 0.05%

8 513 22,660 3,607 0.99% 50.65% 0.02%

9 626 16,817 5,497 0.83% 51.49% 0.07%

10 977 25,226 9,448 0.83% 52.32% 0.04%

11 87 288 722 0.74% 53.05% 0.24%

12 330 3,737 895 0.72% 53.78% 0.03%

13 569 10,083 11,831 0.66% 54.44% 0.08%

14 807 22,134 7,150 0.65% 55.08% 0.05%

15 602 10,984 4,878 0.62% 55.71% 0.04%

16 427 4,281 3,273 0.55% 56.26% 0.07%

17 620 11,866 5,216 0.54% 56.80% 0.05%

18 865 10,169 7,940 0.52% 57.32% 0.07%

19 1,345 41,740 9,685 0.51% 57.83% 0.03%

20 772 13,038 1,902 0.46% 58.29% 0.01%

Sulfate Fraction = EWRT.Qd_SO2_2028/(Total_NO3_2028 + Total_SO4_2028)Nitrate Fraction = EWRT.Qd_NO3_2028/(Total_NO3_2028 + Total_SO4_2028)

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VISTAS Source Apportionment Modeling

•Quantifies visibility impacts from individual point sources, source sectors, and geographic regions•NOx and SO2 tagging•Used for further evaluation of AOI results•Refines information on contributions to visibility

impairment•Can be used to adjust future year visibility projections

to account for additional emission controls•VISTAS contract with ERG allows for up to 250 tags

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VISTAS Future Year Model Projections

•Calculation of relative response factors (RRFs)•Gives average percent change in pollutant or species

concentrations due to emission changes between 2011 and 2028•Produces design values for 2028

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4-Factor Analysis

• States will evaluate certain sources and emissions to determine if reasonable controls are in place or available•Considers four important factorsoPotential costs of complianceoTime necessary for complianceoEnergy and non-air quality environmental impacts of

complianceoRemaining useful life of sources subject to this analysis

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VISTAS Technical Work Status

•Data collection/analysis nearing completion•VISTAS 2011 modeling done• Emission updates done• Emission processing done•2028 modeling done•Benchmarking nearing completion•Area of influence analysis nearing completion• Source apportionment modeling beginning in May• Future year model projections to be initiated

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What We’ve Learned

• The major facility landscape continues to changeoShutdowns, fuel switches, additional emission controls

• Emissions continue to go down• SO2 emissions are still the major haze contributor•Regional haze levels continues to be reduced•Visibility improvement is well ahead of schedule

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27.56

24.70

21.51

18.33

15.15

11.96

10.05

29.16

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Observations (Impaired Days) Glide Path (Impaired Days)

5-year Average (Impaired Days)

Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Visibility Impairment Trend(20% Most Impaired Days)

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VISTAS Region

NOx emission changes

County level

2011 to 2028

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VISTAS Region

SO2 emission changes

County level

2011 to 2028

VISTAS Draft 2028 Modeling Results

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50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

110.0%

Ratio of 2028 Model Results to 2028 Uniform Rate of Progress

VISTAS Class I Areas ➔ Non-VISTAS Class I Areas ➔

VISTAS Consultation and Communications

• Sharing information with EPA OAQPS, Regions 3 and 4• Sharing information and seeking input from Federal

Land Managers (next call early June)•Preparing for briefing to stakeholders (later in June)•Considering a face-to-face VISTAS meeting – TBD• Working with RPO colleagues towards a national

regional meeting this fall•Available to present information and have discussions

at conferences like this one38

VISTAS Remaining Work/Technical Schedule

•Benchmarking May-June 2019•Area of influence analysis May 2019 • Source apportionment (tagging) August 2019•Data collection/analysis May-June 2019• Future year projections (RRFs) August 2019•Best and final run??? Necessity uncertain• Final reports and documentation December 2019•Web site updates and postings Ongoing task

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VISTAS State Responsibilities

•Perform 4-factor analysis•Consult and communicate with state stakeholders•Consult with in-state FLM contacts if applicable•Consult with surrounding states if applicable•Complete state-specific analysis and documentation• Follow state regulatory and SIP development processes• Seek input and respond to public comment• Submit regional haze SIPs to EPA by July 31, 2021•Why all this work?

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Look Rock Hazy Day Look Rock Clear Day

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Acknowledgements

•Assistance with presentation development:

• James Boylan, PhD., Manager, Planning and Support Program

Georgia EPD, Air Protection Branch

• Randy Strait, Chief, Planning Section

North Carolina DEQ, Division of Air Quality

•Contact Information:

• John Hornback, Executive Director, Metro 4/SESARM/VISTAS

• Email: hornback@metro4-sesarm.org

• Phone: 404-361-400042

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