south south cooperation: origins and trends
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South South Cooperation: Origins and trends. Richard Kozul -Wright UNCTAD, Unit on EICDC December 2010. South South Cooperation. A (short) history of South South cooperation Terminology Recent trends Back to the future? The 1970s vs the 2000s INTERMISSION - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
South South Cooperation: South South Cooperation: Origins and trendsOrigins and trends
Richard Kozul-WrightUNCTAD,
Unit on EICDCDecember 2010
South South CooperationSouth South Cooperation
A (short) history of South South cooperation Terminology Recent trends Back to the future? The 1970s vs the 2000s
INTERMISSION
A Lewis moment? A Global perspective on the rise of the south
South South interdependence: Why policy space still matters
Productive integration: East Asian Lessons Monetary and financial cooperation:a missing link? The South is Dead: Long Live the South!
South South TimelineSouth South Timeline
1945 Formation of Arab league
1955 Asian-African Conference in Bandung, Indonesia
1960 Latin America Free Trade Area (LAFTA)
OPEC
1961 Non-Aligned Movement (NAM)
1963 Organization of African Unity (OAU)
1964 First United Nations Conference for Trade and Development + G77 established
1967 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
1968 UNCTAD ECDC unit
1969 Andean Community
1973 Caribbean Community (CARICOM)
1974 UN General Assembly adopts Declaration for the Establishment of a NIEO
Special Unit to Promote Technical Cooperation among Developing Countries (TCDC) by UNDP
1975 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
1976 Mexico City conference on ECDC; GSTP launched
1978 UN Conference on South South Cooperation, Buenos Aires
1981 High-Level Conference of the G-77 in Caracas Venezuela Caracas Programme of Action on ECDC
Collapse of NIEO
1985 South Asian Association for regional Cooperation
1987 The South Commission established
1988 GSTP entered into force
1991 Mercosur
1994 Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)
2000 Ministerial Conference of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) held in Beijing.
First South Summit in Havana, Cuba
2002 OAU formally adopted the NEPAD
2003 IBSA Forum.
UN General Assembly declares 19 December, UN Day for South-South Cooperation
Marrakech Declaration on South-South Cooperation
2005 Second South Summit Doha, Qatar
2007 Bank of the South
2008 UNCTAD XII, Accra, Ghana
Africa India Summit held in New Delhi, India
2009 UN High Level Conference on on South South Cooperation Nairobi
2010 Ratification of the constitutive treaty of Unasur
Sao Paulo GSTP round signed (December)
UNCTAD’S UNCTAD’S RoleRole
UNCTAD was the lead organisation to South South Cooperation beginning from 1964
It focused on the regional economic It involved in a very wide ranging research
agenda, not just on trade issues (e.g. financial arrangement)
It involved in a heavy discussion on South South Cooperation issues during 1960-1970
Twists and terms 1Twists and terms 1
Economic Integration
MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF DIFFERENT TYPES MAIN CHARACTERISTICS OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRADE INTEGRATION ARRANGEMENTSOF TRADE INTEGRATION ARRANGEMENTS
Reduction Elimination Common
of tariffs in of tariffs in tariffs forHarmonization
intraregional intraregional the rest of Free factor of economic
trade trade the world mobility policies
Preferential trade agreement Yes
Free trade agreement Yes
Customs union Yes YesCoordination desirable
Common market Yes Yes YesCoordination desirable
Economic union Yes Yes Yes Yes
Source: UNCTAD secretariat.
Twists and terms 2Twists and terms 2
Development cooperation South South cooperation
Twists and terms 3Twists and terms 3
Economic cooperation among developing countries (ECDC)
Technical cooperation among developing countries (TCDC)
Twists and terms 4Twists and terms 4
Triangular cooperation North and South
South-South Trade Volumes, US$South-South Trade Volumes, US$
0
500000000
1000000000
1500000000
2000000000
2500000000
3000000000
3500000000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Africa Transition Oceania
South-South trade by region Test South-South trade by region Test 20092009
Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat.
FDI from developing regions, US$FDI from developing regions, US$
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Mill
ion
s U
SD
Africa Latin America and the Caribbean Asia Oceania
Evolution of South-South FDI:1990-Evolution of South-South FDI:1990-20062006
YearWorld Outward FDI(Billions of dollars)
South-South FDI*(Billions of dollars)
South-South FDI as % of world total
Growth rate South-South FDI
1990 241 12 5 -14
1991 198 9 5 -23
1992 203 16 8 81
1993 243 17 7 6
1994 287 25 9 41
1995 363 27 7 10
1996 396 35 9 29
1997 476 45 9 28
1998 682 29 4 -36
1999 1077 37 3 28
2000 1233 35 3 -6
2001 753 41 5 16
2002 537 30 6 -26
2003 566 39 7 29
2004 920 77 8 96
2005 893 88 10 15
2006 1411 145 10 64
2007 2267 180 8 25
2008 1928 187 10 4
2009 1100 149 14 -20
Note: * Calculation excludes Cayman Islands, British Virgin Island and Hong Kong (China).
Net transfer of financial resources to developing economies and Net transfer of financial resources to developing economies and economies in transition, 1997-2009economies in transition, 1997-2009
Billions of Dollars 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009b Developing economies
-3.6 -37.1 -126.2 -195.0 -163.8 -208.2 -302.3 -378.0 -581.0 -781.9 -870.3 -890.7 -567.7
Africa -7.0 13.0 1.5 -32.2 -16.8 -5.1 -19.0 -35.4 -63.9 -87.2 -98.7 -91.4 20.8 Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Nigeria and South Africa)
7.4 12.2 8.5 2.6 6.8 4.8 6.5 4.1 0.8 -9.6 -5.6 -1.0 27.3
East and South Asia
-32.1 -128.2 -139.4 -124.8 -121.0 -147.7 -173.5 -181.1 -262.5 -383.6 -518.4 -478.9 -497.2
Western Asia
12.4 34.5 2.7 -35.3 -29.7 -23.2 -46.7 -76.9 -145.4 -175.8 -150.0 -259.5 -52.4
Latin America and the Caribbean
23.2 43.7 8.9 -2.8 3.7 -32.2 -63.2 -84.6 -109.3 -135.4 -103.2 -60.9 -38.8
Economies in transition
1.6 0.7 -25.1 -51.5 -32.9 -27.9 -38.0 -62.4 -95.7 -117.1 -98.3 -153.0 -89.7
Memorandum Items 7.2 8.4 9.8 8.5 8.5 10.9 13.1 15.6 20.4 18.6 28.0 43.4 45.7
10.3 13.6 11.4 6.2 9.1 7.3 8.9 6.0 2.9 -7.4 -4.9 -0.7 20.3
Sovereign Wealth Funds with over $100 Sovereign Wealth Funds with over $100 billionbillion
Country Fund Assets
$Billion Inception
United Arab Emirates Abu Dhabi
Abu Dhabi Investment Authority 627 1976
Norway Government Pension Fund - Global 443 1990
Saudi Arabia SAMA Foreign Holdings 415 n/a
China SAFE Investment Company 347.1** 1997
Singapore Government of Singapore Investment Corporation
340 1981
China China Investment Corporation 332.4 2007
South Korea National Pension Service 268.0 1998
China Hong Kong
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Investment Portfolio
227.6 1993
Kuwait Kuwait Investment Authority 202.8 1953
China National Social Security Fund 146.5 2000
Singapore Temasek Holdings 143 1974
Russia National Welfare Fund 142.5* 2008
Global migrant stocks, 2005 (millions)Global migrant stocks, 2005 (millions)
Migrants inSouth North
(HI OECD)North (HI non-
OECD)Total
Migrants from:
South 74 62 20 156North (HI OECD)
3 25 1.2 30
North (HI non-OECD)
1 4 0.3 5
Total 78 91 22 191
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on migration data from University of Sussex, United Nations, and World Bank
Factors for Growing Increased of Factors for Growing Increased of South South Economic ConnectionSouth South Economic Connection
TradeForeign Direct InvestmentFinancial flowsLabour flows
South South Cooperation South South Cooperation 19701970
1970: last golden age of South South cooperation
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Developing economies Developed economies World
1970 - 1980 1981-1989 1995 - 2009
Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCTADstat.
Geographical composition of world Geographical composition of world exports:1970 and 1980exports:1970 and 1980
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Brazil China India Japan NIC MENA USA (before1981)
EU15
1970 1980
Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCOMTRADE.
Note: EU 15 includes, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. MENA includes the Middle East and North African Countries. NIC only includes, Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. China’s share of world exports corresponds to the earliest available figure in UNCOMTRADE, 1984.
Geographical composition of world Geographical composition of world exports:1996,2006 and 2009exports:1996,2006 and 2009
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Brazil China India Russia Japan NIC MENA USA EU15
1996 2006 2009
Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCOMTRADE.
Note: EU 15 includes, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. MENA includes the Middle East and North African Countries. Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore.
Average growth rates:Average growth rates:selected countriesselected countries
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Brazil China India Russia Japan NIC United States EU
1970 - 1980 1995 - 2009
Source: ECIDC Unit, based on UNCTADstat.
Distribution of global outputDistribution of global output
Long run GDP trend
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
% o
f g
lob
al G
DP
High Income Low and middle Income Low and middle income w/o China
Differences within the south?Differences within the south?
Long run GDP trend
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
% o
f g
lob
al G
DP
China India Indonesia Brasil LAC SSF South Africa
Final Final ThoughtsThoughts
1. Exporting economies VS Big economies
2. Converting VS Catch up
3. Dependance Vs Decoupling
DecouplingDecoupling
Decouplingof economic performances
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Year
Gro
wth
%
HIC LCN EAP SAS SSF