South Korea’s Conservative Turn & U.S.-Korea Relations

South Korea’s Conservative Turn & U.S.-Korea Relations

Chaibong Hahm

Senior Political Scientist

RAND Corporation

Chaibong Hahm

Senior Political Scientist

RAND Corporation

2007 Election2007 Election

Lee Myung-bak: Conservative GNP 48.7% 11.49 million votes

Chung Dong-young: UNDP 26.2% 6.17 million votes

Lee Hoe-chang: Ultra-Conservative Independent 15.6%

Lee Myung-bak: Conservative GNP 48.7% 11.49 million votes

Chung Dong-young: UNDP 26.2% 6.17 million votes

Lee Hoe-chang: Ultra-Conservative Independent 15.6%

Two Koreans Two Koreans

Roh Mu-hyun (DOB: Aug. 6, 1946) Poverty High school, Bar Exam:

Judge, lawyer Human Rights lawyer Opposition Politician Minister Progressive

Roh Mu-hyun (DOB: Aug. 6, 1946) Poverty High school, Bar Exam:

Judge, lawyer Human Rights lawyer Opposition Politician Minister Progressive

Lee Myung-bak (DOB: Dec. 9, 1941) Poverty College, student activist CEO, Hyundai Construction Ruling Party Politician Mayor of Seoul Conservative

Lee Myung-bak (DOB: Dec. 9, 1941) Poverty College, student activist CEO, Hyundai Construction Ruling Party Politician Mayor of Seoul Conservative

IDEOLOGYIDEOLOGY

Left/Progressive Democracy

Anti-authoritarianism

Nationalism Reconciliation w/ NK

Labor (Minjung)

Left/Progressive Democracy

Anti-authoritarianism

Nationalism Reconciliation w/ NK

Labor (Minjung)

Right/Conservative Development

Mobilization

Anti-Communism S.Korean State

Capital (e.g.Chaebol)

Right/Conservative Development

Mobilization

Anti-Communism S.Korean State

Capital (e.g.Chaebol)

‘87 System‘87 System

1987: Democratization Authoritarianism de-legitimized

1997: Financial Crisis Developmental State de-legitimized

Left Dictated the Terms of Political Discourse: “Democracy v. Dictatorship” “National Reunification v. National Division” “Workers (Minjung) v. Capitalists (Chaebol)”

1987: Democratization Authoritarianism de-legitimized

1997: Financial Crisis Developmental State de-legitimized

Left Dictated the Terms of Political Discourse: “Democracy v. Dictatorship” “National Reunification v. National Division” “Workers (Minjung) v. Capitalists (Chaebol)”

ContradictionsContradictions

1997 Financial Crisis: Limits of Developmental State Inevitability of Globalization

Progressive Govts’ Pro-Market Reforms Kim Dae-jung: FDI, Consumer Credit, Dot.com

Cooperated w/ the IMF to open Korean Market

Roh Mu-hyun: Free Trade Agreement w/ U.S.

Rhetoric: Nationalism, Anti-Americanism Anti-capital (anti-chaebol)

1997 Financial Crisis: Limits of Developmental State Inevitability of Globalization

Progressive Govts’ Pro-Market Reforms Kim Dae-jung: FDI, Consumer Credit, Dot.com

Cooperated w/ the IMF to open Korean Market

Roh Mu-hyun: Free Trade Agreement w/ U.S.

Rhetoric: Nationalism, Anti-Americanism Anti-capital (anti-chaebol)

The EconomyThe Economy

Destruction of powerful labor unions as companies go bankrupt and massive layoffs take place

Those chaebols that survive become globally competitive w/ less government interference

Free-market forces increasingly take over income disparity and job insecurity increases

under leftist/progressive governments

Destruction of powerful labor unions as companies go bankrupt and massive layoffs take place

Those chaebols that survive become globally competitive w/ less government interference

Free-market forces increasingly take over income disparity and job insecurity increases

under leftist/progressive governments

Housing & EducationHousing & Education

Restricting new housing while trying to keep the real estate prices down in Seoul through “anti-speculation” measures

Keeping Education “fair” and “equal” by severely restricting Universities’ student selection method & criteria

=> Explosion of social discontent

Restricting new housing while trying to keep the real estate prices down in Seoul through “anti-speculation” measures

Keeping Education “fair” and “equal” by severely restricting Universities’ student selection method & criteria

=> Explosion of social discontent

PoliticsPolitics

Undercutting workers, political base of progressive governments

Undercutting the middle class while calling for “Citizens’ Participatory Democracy”

Undercutting workers, political base of progressive governments

Undercutting the middle class while calling for “Citizens’ Participatory Democracy”

Politics of HistoryPolitics of History

Preoccupation w/ History Pro-Authoritarian Government Collaborators Atrocities of U.S. & S. Korean Forces during the

Korean War Pro-Japanese Collaborators Japanese History Book Revisions Chinese Revision of Northeast Asian History

Moralistic Past-Orientation in the Age of Globalization & Information Revolution

Preoccupation w/ History Pro-Authoritarian Government Collaborators Atrocities of U.S. & S. Korean Forces during the

Korean War Pro-Japanese Collaborators Japanese History Book Revisions Chinese Revision of Northeast Asian History

Moralistic Past-Orientation in the Age of Globalization & Information Revolution

Korean Nationalism & the U.S.Korean Nationalism & the U.S. Selling out Korea to Japan: 1905 Taft-Katsura

Agreement Imposing Rightist/Pro-U.S. Government on South

Korea: U.S. Military Rule (1945-48) U.S. military atrocities against Korean civilians

during the Korean War Supporting Military Dictators: exploitation of

workers, Kwangju Massacre Killing of Two School Girls by U.S. army on exercise 2002 Election of Roh Mu-hyun: never been to the

U.S.

Selling out Korea to Japan: 1905 Taft-Katsura Agreement

Imposing Rightist/Pro-U.S. Government on South Korea: U.S. Military Rule (1945-48)

U.S. military atrocities against Korean civilians during the Korean War

Supporting Military Dictators: exploitation of workers, Kwangju Massacre

Killing of Two School Girls by U.S. army on exercise 2002 Election of Roh Mu-hyun: never been to the

U.S.

Fraying of the AllianceFraying of the Alliance

S. Korea: a more independent foreign policy:

“balancer between U.S. & China”

De-linking inter-Korean relations from U.S.-ROK alliance

S. Korea: a more independent foreign policy:

“balancer between U.S. & China”

De-linking inter-Korean relations from U.S.-ROK alliance

Loosening Military Ties:Loosening Military Ties:

Progressives wanting to reduce U.S. military presence in S. Korea

U.S. Military’s global restructuring: emphasizing burden sharing, increasing the contribution of host country

Roh & Rumsfeld perversely re-enforced each other’s policy: agreement to transfer wartime operational control

Progressives wanting to reduce U.S. military presence in S. Korea

U.S. Military’s global restructuring: emphasizing burden sharing, increasing the contribution of host country

Roh & Rumsfeld perversely re-enforced each other’s policy: agreement to transfer wartime operational control

Contradictory PoliciesContradictory Policies

Transfer of Wartime Operations Command & Control

Sending troops to Iraq

Free Trade Agreement

Transfer of Wartime Operations Command & Control

Sending troops to Iraq

Free Trade Agreement

Rise of the New-RightRise of the New-Right

Shifting the Terms of Political Discourse What comes after Industrialization &

Democratization?

Left: Left: reckoning w/ the past

New Right: “Advanced Industrialization Nation”: future orientation

Shifting the Terms of Political Discourse What comes after Industrialization &

Democratization?

Left: Left: reckoning w/ the past

New Right: “Advanced Industrialization Nation”: future orientation

The New DiscourseThe New Discourse

Liberty v. Equality

Growth v. Welfare

Market v. State

Globalization v. Nationalism

Liberty v. Equality

Growth v. Welfare

Market v. State

Globalization v. Nationalism

Pragmatism in Foreign PolicyPragmatism in Foreign Policy

Reaffirm alliance w/ U.S.

Improve ties w/ Japan

Sunshine towards N.K. but demand reciprocity (de-nuclearization)

Reaffirm alliance w/ U.S.

Improve ties w/ Japan

Sunshine towards N.K. but demand reciprocity (de-nuclearization)

Pragmatic Economic PoliciesPragmatic Economic Policies

Growth through de-regulation & market liberalization: “747”

7% per annum growth rate

$40,000 per capita income

7th largest economy in the world

Growth through de-regulation & market liberalization: “747”

7% per annum growth rate

$40,000 per capita income

7th largest economy in the world

ChallengesChallenges

Between U.S. & China

KORUS FTA

Down-grading of Military Alliance

Global Economic Downturn

Between U.S. & China

KORUS FTA

Down-grading of Military Alliance

Global Economic Downturn